The Federal Reserve delivered the biggest interest-rate increase since 2000 and signaled it would keep hiking at that pace over the next couple of meetings, unleashing the most aggressive policy action in decades to combat soaring inflation.The U.S. central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday voted unanimously to increase the benchmark rate by a half percentage point. It will begin allowing its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to decline in June at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion, stepping up over three months to $95 billion. “Inflation is much too high and we understand the hardship it is causing and we are moving expeditiously to bring it back down,” Chair Jerome Powell said after the decision in his first in-person press conference since the pandemic began. He added that there was “a broad sense on the committee that additional 50 basis-point increases should be on the table for the next couple of meetings.” Powell’s remarks ignited the strongest stock-market rally on the day of a Fed meeting in a decade, as he dashed speculation that the Fed was weighing an even larger increase of 75 basis points in the months ahead, saying that it is “not something that the committee is actively considering.”
US rallies at close, Dow up 900 pts after Fed decision
Shares in the United States traded sharply higher as the session ended on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring over 900 points. The Federal Reserve increased the key interest rates by 50 basis points, and Chair Jerome Powell announced “a couple” of similar interest rate hikes at the coming meetings. The Dow Jones flew 2.81% or 932 points at the close as Honeywell grew by 4.47%. The Nasdaq 100 surged 3.41% at the same time with Starbuck skyrocketing 9.83%. The S&P 500 rallied 2.99% as the session ended. Paycom ballooned 14.27% as the benchmark’s top performer. NN: The march lows held. And as we guessed the stock market had one of its biggest up moves ever. That is why we stood aside…… Powell did his job comforting the sleeping masses. A depression is coming… But why let them suffer. Like a condemned man let them enjoy their last meal, Powell is right about one thing. Their will be no recession. Instead their will be a full blown depression…….
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck shared on Wednesday, during a press conference, that he cannot “guarantee that regional oil supplies will not be disrupted.” The comment comes after the European Union announced a new proposal on the sanctions package, which targets Russian oil. The bloc plans to phase out the crude in the period of six months. Habeck asserted that the “EU transition period for the Russian oil embargo is adequate,” adding, however, that “prices could go up considerably as a consequence of the embargo.” The economy minister also touched on the topic of the workforce and encouraged those leaving Russia to seek jobs in Germany, saying “we can really use them.” NN: YOU THINK?
“German Economy Minister Robert Habeck i cannot “guarantee that regional oil supplies will not be disrupted.”
So let me see if i get this. They are taking action that will disrupt the vital oil flow to Europe….. The questions immediately pops up… WHY D O I IT:
Omicron is so infectious it makes it hard for the elderly and immunocompromised to avoid
The omicron variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 that has swept across the U.S. since late last year has taken a grimmer toll than earlier variants, including in people who were vaccinated and even had booster shots. That’s according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which found that 42% of COVID fatalities in January and February were of vaccinated people, compared with 23% of the dead in September, when the delta variant was still dominant. The data are based on the date of infection and limited to a sampling of cases in which vaccination status was known, the paper reported. The deaths were mostly in elderly people and people with compromised immune systems. Almost two-thirds of those people who died during omicron were 75 and older. Omicron, and its growing number of subvariants, has proved to be far more infectious than earlier strains. The rise in fatalities is thought to be linked to vaccine protection waning over time, making it harder for those patients who are most at risk to avoid contracting the disease. The data also show that unvaccinated people remain at far higher risk than the vaccinated, and are far more likely to die if they do become ill, and they are at more risk than people who have had their booster shot. “It’s still absolutely more dangerous to be unvaccinated than vaccinated,” Andrew Noymer, a public health professor at the University of California at Irvine who studies COVID-19 mortality, told the newspaper. “A pandemic of — and by — the unvaccinated is not correct. People still need to take care in terms of prevention and action if they became symptomatic.” COVID cases are still rising across the U.S. after their steep decline early in the year. The U.S. is averaging 60,953 cases a day, according to a New York Times tracker, up 55% from two weeks ago. The country is averaging 17,220 hospitalizations a day, up 16% from two weeks ago, but still close to the lowest level since the first weeks of the pandemic. The average daily death toll has fallen below 400 to 331. In a sign of how the trend has changed, New York City on Monday raised its COVID risk level to medium from low. The city is averaging 2,654 cases a day, compared with about 600 a day in early March. The number may be even higher as many people are now testing at home and the data are not all being collected. NN: By the time the leaves turn it will be back. The covid is still with us. For a fact cases are way under reported. That’s ok. When people around us start dropping dead again their will be no doubt. I urge you not to let your guard down. The best thing you can do is stay current on your vaccine……. Enjoy the quiet before the NEXT storm…….
Investing.com — Oil prices soared Monday as the major European nations considered joining the U.S. in an embargo of Russian oil exports, further tightening global supply. By 9:50 AM ET (1350 GMT), U.S. crude futures traded 5.4% higher at $108.66 a barrel, while the Brent contract rose 5.8% to $114.23. U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were up 4.3% at $3.3780 a gallon. European Union countries are meeting Monday ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s arrival later this week to take part in a series of summits that aim to harden the West’s response to Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. and the U.K. have already announced plans to wean themselves off Russian oil, a move that EU governments have so far avoided given their stronger reliance on Russian oil and gas. However, the sanctions currently in place to punish Moscow for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine haven’t had an immediate impact, and with the conflict intensifying the European Union’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell said that the bloc is ready to discuss including energy in a new round of punishing measures. Adding to the concerns over the tightness of the global market, attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group caused a temporary drop in output at a Saudi Aramco (SE:2222) refinery over the weekend. “The product markets are already tight, particularly for middle distillates. Inventories in most regions are at multi-year lows, so the market will be sensitive to any potential supply disruptions on the product side,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
The latest report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, released last week, showed some producers are struggling to fill their agreed supply quotas, with the group seen missing its production target by more than 1 million barrels per day in February.
On the demand side, mainland China reported its first Covid-19 deaths in more than a year over the weekend, with the two fatalities matching the total number the country reported for the whole of 2021. The Jilin region, bordering North Korea and Russia, accounts for more than two-thirds of domestic infections in the latest wave. This area is less strategically important than the southern technology hub of Shenzhen, which was shut down last week, but with China continuing to use stringent measures such as short and targeted shutdowns to combat the virus, further hits to demand seem likely. The International Energy Agency outlined ways to cut oil use late last week, including car-pooling, lowering speed limits, and reducing the cost of public transport. (NB: is this not incredible silliness…. this shit will not work!!)“The IEA believes that if advanced economies fully implement the measures, oil demand could fall by 2.7MMbbls/d within a four-month period,” ING added. NN: If you torture the numbers enough you can get them to admit to anything. Car pooling driving slower and public transportation are not going to happen. In fact as we have the covid revenge vacation and travel season demand is INCREASING!!!!! And i hasten to remind you oil, gas, gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel levels are at 30 year lows……. But why let the truth get in the way of a grenninieewinnieee wet dream. I spoke to an activist and asked why you are doing this. HER response was we hope they run out of gas and gasoline and electirs price soar to the moon that way they will build more solar and windmills….. All I can so is good luck… AND thankyou for $200 oil i can trade!!!
The European Union is expected to target oil imports from Russia in a fresh sanctions package aimed at undermining the finances of Moscow and its ability to wage war in Ukraine. The details of the proposed new sanctions are expected to be laid out later Wednesday by the European Commission, before ambassadors of EU member states meet to discuss whether there is the required consensus to adopt the measures. A breakthrough in Germany’s position has allowed the 27 to come close to agreement on cutting off a major source of revenue for the regime of Vladimir Putin through its oil sales. This week German energy minister and deputy chancellor Robert Halbeck said his country had made “great progress” in sourcing alternatives to coal and oil from Russia. “We have managed to reach a situation where Germany is able to bear an oil embargo,” he said, though he warned that the move would impose costs on the EU. While Poland and the Baltic states have called for an immediate total ban on oil imports from Russia, Hungary and Slovakia are more hesitant as landlocked countries without the infrastructure to allow them to easily receive alternatives to Russian oil. To allow for such national circumstances, the commission is expected to propose a phased approach, that would allow member states to move immediately to cut off oil imports if they wish, while others can take more time to adjust. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for action in a video address this week, saying the EU “package should include clear steps to block Russia’s revenues from energy resources”. Cutting out Russian oil is seen as easier than gas, which is deeply embedded in several EU economies. The security of the energy source to the EU was thrown into uncertainty when Russian energy giant Gazprom cut off the gas supplies of Bulgaria and Poland last week. In an emergency meeting of energy ministers on Monday, some EU countries called for more certainty over what kind of payments to Gazprom risk breaching EU sanctions on Russia. Gazprom said the gas had been cut because the Bulgarian and Polish energy companies had not paid for the deliveries in roubles, a change demanded by Moscow in a recent decree seen as a bid to undermine the effect of EU sanctions and support the value of the currency. The commission has warned that energy companies that comply with a Russian demand to open a rouble-denominated bank account and complete payments through transfers into it would be in breach of sanctions. NN: Talk about shooting yourself in your dick or Tit if you do not have a dick. This is so stupid that i cannot believe my eyes. Their are no replacement supplies. 150 oil here we come and maybe $200 oil.
The U.S. energy industry has taken its role of savior of Europe seriously. After boosting LNG exports to a record because of Europe’s thirst for energy, oil exports from the U.S. are now on the rise, as well, but the trend may not be sustainable. Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a recent column that the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and fuels last month, with the difference between imports and exports at 3 million barrels daily. He also noted, however, that a lot of this oil was coming from inventories that had now fallen to the lowest since 2008. Since July 2020, Kemp noted, U.S. oil inventories had declined by 421 million barrels. Strategic oil reserves are also low, and fuel inventories are below the average for this time of the year, especially in distillates, which are 30 million barrels below the average. From an immediate perspective, the fact that the U.S. is stepping in to fill the gap left by sanctioned Russian oil is good news for both U.S exporters and European importers. In the longer term, however, the plan may hit an inventory wall. If U.S. exporters are dipping into their reserves to send enough oil to Europe, this means that U.S. oil production is not rising fast enough–a fact the Biden administration has been lamenting for some time. Higher exports that do come from inventories may become another issue the administration finds problematic, particularly in the wake of a ban on oil exports that was proposed by Congressional representatives to keep the reins on retail fuel prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Now, prices at the pump are even higher than they were in December when the legislators proposed the ban. Clearly, a ban now would go against the administration’s repeatedly stated and demonstrated support for Europe’s energy needs. Yet, the link between rising U.S. oil exports and rising prices for fuels at home is difficult to overlook. The key, of course, is ensuring that production catches up with demand, which will be even more difficult. The latest monthly production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that oil output in the U.S. dipped in February, before Russia launched its war on Ukraine. Since then, production may have increased to some extent, but not everywhere. The Wall Street Journal reported last week that oil drillers in the Permian, the biggest contributor to production growth across the nation, were struggling with persistent shortages of equipment, workers, and, perhaps surprisingly, cash. Citing energy executives and analysts, the WSJ’s Colin Eaton said that while the Permian was expected to be the only place in the U.S. where oil production could grow significantly, this growth might not materialize as expected because of continuing supply chain snags. One reason, according to Eaton, is the damage that the oilfield service industry suffered during the pandemic, which prompted companies to mothball a lot of equipment that is now apparently slow to come back online. Another reason, according to the WSJ, is continued skepticism among investors about the oil industry, despite the rallying prices. This is basically clipping the wings of oilfield service providers who lack enough cash to invest in more equipment in response to higher demand for it. The situation could prove problematic for both the U.S. and Europe. The chances of large public oil companies suddenly changing their minds and doing what politicians want them to do—stop buying back stocks, suspend dividends, and boost production—are slim to nonexistent. The chances of smaller independent producers suddenly finding the money to drill as much as is necessary to restore balance in international oil markets may be slightly greater, but still too small: investors take time to change course, and then it takes time for oil production to begin growing. According to the EIA, U.S. oil production will grow by some 8% this year from last, to 12.6 million bpd. That would be up from an estimated 11.9 million bpd as of the week to April 22, so the increase will be less than 1 million bpd. Europe needs more than that and there are few producers as friendly as the U.S. However, the U.S. will need more crude, too, if only to replenish its inventories at some point. The situation is likely to remain complicated for quite some time. It is no coincidence that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned the European Union last month to tread carefully when it came to an oil embargo on Russia because that would raise prices for everyone. Despite the warning, the EU is soldiering on with its embargo plan, which could be announced as soon as this week. NN: Do not let them shit you. We are in a full blown energy crises. Their are no replacements for lost Russia energy supplies….
The move would open the Kremlin’s way to announcing a full mobilization and escalating the war in Ukraine, officials said.May 9, known as Russia’s “Victory Day,” commemorates the Russians’ defeat of the Nazis in 1945. Western officials have long believed that Putin would leverage the symbolic significance and propaganda value of that day to announce either a military achievement in Ukraine, a major escalation of hostilities – or both. Officials have begun to home in on one scenario – with Putin formally declaring war on Ukraine on May 9. UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace previously suggested that Putin could declare war on May Day. “I think he will try to move from his ‘special operation,'” Wallace told LBC Radio last week. “He’s been rolling the pitch, laying the ground for being able to say ‘look, this is now a war against Nazis, and what I need is more people. I need more Russian cannon fodder.'” Other options for May 9 include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, making a major push for Odesa in the south, or declaring full control over the southern port city of Mariupol. It is also reported that the Russian invaders may launch massive attacks on Luhansk Oblast on May 9th. NN: I would be less then honest with you if id did not speak these hard words. The truth is we are morphing into WWIII. Slowly but surely the armies and arms are rushing into the battle field. A battle field that will expand in the body count, weapons and territory involved. But their is another dimension and that is key minerals, food and the worlds emery supply is at extreme risk. I believe i know how to trade this… It is some conciliation since i cannot stop this insanity!
Domestic supplies of gasoline and diesel in the United States are dwindling as record volumes of fuel are being exported from the Gulf Coast (NB: wanna hear the outrage… the fuel exported is not going to Europe but to Latin America AND US domestic inventories of diesel, gasoline and Jet fuel are at record lows) ,Citing Vortexa tracking data, Bloomberg said that up to 2.09 million bpd of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel shipped out of the Gulf Coast last month. That rate represents the highest volume since 2016 based on known data. And it wasn’t destined to help Europe out of its energy crisis. Instead, the report says that most exports went to Latin America, and that is not expected to slow in the near term. Bloomberg says that countries in South America will burn diesel fuel at a high rate as the winter season sets in, while Mexico is scooping up large volumes of gasoline from the U.S. This situation is expected to lead to demand destruction overseas, first, resulting in domestic consumers being able to “outcompete” foreign buyers, Bloomberg cited Houston-based Lipow Oil Associates LLC as saying. At the same time, it’s diesel that is raking in the profits for American oil refineries focusing on increased output due to wild margins that will only calm down once gasoline output fails to meet domestic summer driving demand, according to Bloomberg. Diesel prices, which hit a record $5.16 per gallon last week and have remained on average $1 per gallon higher than gasoline prices, are largely being blamed for the higher prices Americans are paying for consumer goods, which primarily need to be shipped by a trucking industry that relies on diesel. On Monday, diesel prices rose further to $5.321 per gallon, according to AAA. In a Monday report, Citi noted that the increase in diesel prices had resulted in a decline in the freight industry’s free cash flow from 21% in March to 19% in April. NN: Diesel fuel is very profitable because it is easier to refine. It usually sells under gasoline. Reality is the world is coming back alive after covid lockdowns and no mater if it comes in by ship or by air at some point it ends up on a diesel fuel powered truck.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree on retaliatory economic sanctions in response to the “unfriendly actions of certain foreign states and international organizations”, the Kremlin said on Tuesday. According to the decree, Russia will forbid the export of products and raw materials to people and entities that it has sanctioned. The decree also prohibits transactions with foreign individuals and companies hit by Russia’s retaliatory sanctions and permits Russian counterparties not to fulfill obligations towards them. The European Union hopes to pass the sixth round of sanctions against Russia at the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, the bloc’s chief diplomat said on Monday. Josep Borrell told a news conference in Panama City, where he is on an official visit, the bloc hopes to curb Russia’s energy exports as part of its efforts to sanction Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. The European Commission, the executive branch of the union, is expected to propose the package of EU sanctions this week, including a potential embargo on buying Russian oil – a measure that would deprive Moscow of a large revenue stream, but that has so far divided EU countries. Borrell, who chairs the Foreign Affairs Council meetings, said he hopes the EU will be able to take “measures to significantly limit these imports” but conceded so far there is no agreement from all the members.NN: Is anyone listening. He is going to cut supplies. Right now he is metering out deliveries to keep prices sky high and keep Europe off balance. He is the master at deceit and manipulation. And he is dealing from a position of strength… Its going to be a real cold winter in Europe….
Kyiv, May 3 (EFE).- Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the European Union needs to adopt fresh sanctions against Russia to prevent billions of dollars in energy revenues everyday from being used to finance the war in Ukraine. The president, in a video address to the nation overnight, said that Ukraine was currently working with international partners on new sanctions against Russia, and a new package could be expected from the EU in the near future. He stressed that this package should include clear steps to block Russia’s energy revenues. “We really believe this will be done, so that the terrorist state isn’t given a billion euros a day for fuel,” Zelenskyy said in his address. The European Union is looking to go past its reluctance to sanction Russian oil in retaliation for cuts in gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, after these two countries refused to pay for their purchases in rubles. At an extraordinary meeting of energy ministers on Sunday, the governments of Germany and Austria, so far reluctant, expressed their readiness to adopt a new sanctions package that includes the purchase of crude oil from Moscow, leaving Hungary as the only country that still rejects it. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Spain’s Josep Borrell, was optimistic on Monday about the sixth package of sanctions against Russia getting approved. This is expected to hit more Russian banks outside the SWIFT system and would affect Russian oil imports.