Author: BlackMask Financial

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Wednesday on supply tightness and the growing prospect of new Western sanctions against Russia even as Moscow and Kyiv held peace talks. Brent crude futures were up $3.07, or 2.79%, at $113.30 by 1215 GMT, reversing a 2% loss in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.20, or 3.07%, to $107.44 a barrel, erasing a 1.6% drop on Tuesday. Crude’s price recovery “suggests the oil market, at least, has a strong degree of scepticism about any ‘progress’ (in the peace talks),” Commonwealth Bank analyst Tobin Gorey said in a note. The market saw a sharp sell-off in the previous session after Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv, but reports of attacks continued. “We would see an additional 1 million barrels per day of Russian production at risk if relations with Europe worsen and an oil embargo is put in place, although we still see this as unlikely,” consultancy JBC Energy said in a note. The United States and its allies are planning new sanctions on more sectors of Russia’s economy that are critical to sustaining its invasion of Ukraine, including military supply chains.

Russia’s top lawmaker on Wednesday warned the European Union that oil, grain, metals, fertiliser, coal and timber exports could soon be priced in roubles, having previously demanded that “unfriendly” countries pay in roubles for its gas.

The oil market’s focus has turned to tight supply after the American Petroleum Institute reported crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels in the week ended March 25, triple the decline that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average. [API/S] Keeping the market tight, major oil producers are likely to stick to their scheduled output target increase of about 432,000 barrels per day when OPEC+ – the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia – meets on Thursday, several sources close to the group said. However, oil prices face pressure from weakening demand in China owing to tightened mobility restrictions and COVID-19-related lockdowns in multiple cities including the financial hub of Shanghai. NN: Unhook my dick. Any one that blows blue sky up your ass that this is not a big shit is a idiot. This will give us $150 to $200 OIL, RUNAWAY STAGFLATION AND AND A 8000 NASDAQ 100. And if you know what to do this is worth millions upon millions… Its OK if you do not know what to do. Its OK because i know how to do this…..

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Europe’s economy is increasingly feeling the heat from Russia’s war in Ukraine as growth stalls, confidence plummets and inflation soars, data and warnings from policymakers made clear on Wednesday. Sanctions on Russia following its invasion last month have pushed energy prices to record highs across the continent, sapping confidence and raising the risk of another recession, even before some states have recovered from a COVID-fuelled downturn. Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy and one of the most reliant on Russian energy, will be among the hardest hit and the government’s council of economic advisers on Wednesday more than halved their growth forecast for this year to 1.8%.

“The risk of a recession is substantial,” Volker Wieland, one of the panel’s members said, adding the economy would now take until the third quarter to return to its pre-pandemic size.

The advisers, whose forecasts guide the government in setting fiscal policy, also predicted that German inflation would double to over 6%. As the government triggered an emergency plan for possible gas rationing should supplies from Russia be disrupted or stopped, Wieland said Germany should work to end its dependence on Russian energy, possibly through a longer-than-anticipated nuclear energy programme. This would push up inflation for now but improve the long-term security of the country and the economy’s stability, he said.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also warned that, as the conflict drags on, Europe’s economy could suffer more than feared just a few weeks ago.

“The longer the war lasts, the higher the economic costs will be and the greater the likelihood we end up in more adverse scenarios,” she said in a speech. In Vienna, Austria’s central bank cut its growth forecast and sharply raised its inflation outlook for this year, saying its new predictions would worsen further if the war dragged on. Lagarde said households were already becoming more pessimistic and businesses could soon be postponing investment, she said. Her warning was underlined by a sentiment indicator that showed the war had sent consumer confidence in the euro zone plummeting and inflation expectations to record highs. The European Commission’s economic sentiment index dropped to 108.5 in March from a downwardly revised 113.9 in February, while consumer confidence plunged to -18.7 from -8.8. The biggest hit to confidence came from inflation, which is sapping consumer spending power, even as governments quickly roll out subsidies to ease some of the pain. In Spain, one of the bloc’s biggest economies, inflation accelerated to 9.8% in March, the fastest pace since May 1985, from 7.6% in February. German regional inflation data also showed big rises, suggesting the national reading due later on Wednesday could top 7%. Stagnating growth coupled with high inflation – stagflation in economic jargon – leaves Lagarde’s ECB in a dilemma. While the central bank would normally tighten policy to fight inflation, such a move could exacerbate a recession, hurting consumers even more. To mitigate the risk, Lagarde promised to move only by small increments, without making longer-term commitments. “Gradualism means that we will move carefully and adjust our policy as we receive feedback on our actions,” she said. This policy dilemma could in turn divide the ECB’s rate setting Governing Council even more, as conservatives are already calling for a hike to combat high inflation. “Unless … the war …becomes a global conflict, then I think that the first rise (of rates) could come towards the end of this year,” ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said. NN: Be careful the bomb you plant on Russia does not blow up in your face,,,,,, Putin had a well thought out plan. It took him 20 years to get the west hopelessly dependent on Russian oil, gas, food, fertilizer and metals. Make sure the fucking you give ain’t worse then the fucking you get…..

Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that there was a draw this week for crude oil of 3.0 million barrels, compared to analyst predictions of a 1.558 million barrel draw.U.S. crude inventories have shed some 80 million barrels since the start of 2021 and about 23 million barrels since the start of 2020. In the week prior, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 4.28 million barrels after analysts had predicted a build of 25,000 barrels. Oil prices were trading down on Tuesday as it appeared that Ukraine and Russia had made some progress in their peace talks. WTI was trading down 1.31% at $104.60  per barrel on the day at 2:10 p.m. ET—down nearly $7 per barrel on the week. Brent crude was trading down 1.65% on the day at $110.60 per barrel on the day—down $5 per barrel on the week. At a time when American consumers are concerned about the prices at the pump and the global crude oil markets remain tight, U.S. crude oil production has not budged in seven weeks from its position at 11.6 million bpd—still down 1.5 million barrels per day from pre-pandemic times as of March 18. This week, the API reported a draw in gasoline inventories at 1.357 million barrels for the week ending March 25—after the previous week’s 626,000-barrel draw. Distillate stocks saw a decrease in inventory of 215,000 barrels for the week, on top of last week’s 826,000 barrel decrease. Cushing saw a 1.061 million barrel decline this week. Cushing inventories rose to 25.2 million barrels as of March 18, according to EIA data—down from 59.2 million barrels at the start of 2021, and down from 37.3 million barrels at the end of 2021. At 4:36 pm, ET, WTI was trading at $105.00 (-0.91%), with Brent trading at $111.30 (-1.08%). NN: Despite the blow and go oil inventories are plunging. Down 60 million barrels. Reality is demand is outstripping supplies as sanctions are removing Russian ocean going tankers from the market about 3 million barrels a day.

The Food and Drug Administration on Tuesday authorized a second booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Moderna Covid-19 vaccines for adults ages 50 and older. People are eligible to get the additional dose at least four months after receiving their first booster, the FDA said in a statement. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is expected to release a statement signing off on the additional shot shortly. The FDA had already authorized a fourth shot for immunocompromised individuals. On Tuesday, the FDA also cleared a fifth shot, or second booster, for that group. Previously, immunocompromised individuals were authorized to receive a three-dose primary series of a vaccine followed by a booster. Tuesday’s decision bypasses the independent panel of experts from both the FDA and the CDC, which have issued recommendations to the agencies throughout the pandemic on whether they should clear additional shots, and if so, for which groups. The share of people who’ve received their first booster remains low in the United States, with fewer than 50 percent of those who are eligible for a booster having received one, according to data from the CDC. Officials may have a hard time persuading people to get a second booster — as Covid cases, hospitalizations and deaths remain low, some people feel a lack of urgency and have a reduced fear of the disease, experts say. In addition, many say the U.S. mishandled the rollout of the first booster shot last year when it authorized the dose in a confusing manner. The move comes as federal health officials gauge whether an extremely contagious omicron subvariant, known as BA.2, will become a substantial threat in the country as it spreads throughout Europe and other parts of the world. The subvariant accounts for about 55 percent of the new cases in the country, according to the latest data from the CDC. Both Pfizer and Moderna asked the FDA this month to authorize a second booster, arguing that an additional booster is now needed because research shows protection from the initial booster wanes after a few months. Pfizer’s request was limited to adults ages 65 and older; Moderna’s was for all adults. Among the research cited is a study from the CDC, which found that the effectiveness of Pfizer’s and Moderna’s vaccines against hospitalization decreased from 91 percent two months after the initial booster shot to 78 percent after four months. The study included the months of December and January, when the omicron variant was spreading rapidly throughout the U.S.Experts are divided on whether an additional dose is necessary right now, noting that while protection against infection is relatively low, two doses and a booster still provide a high amount of protection against severe disease, hospitalization and deaths, especially in young, healthy people. However, many experts noted that a second booster may be needed for certain groups, such as older adults or those with underlying medical conditions, in the future. Other countries, including Chile, Israel and Sweden, already allow for a fourth vaccine dose for certain vulnerable populations. John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College, said the FDA’s decision to allow second boosters for people as young as 50 “seems excessively cautious” as there isn’t much data to show people under 65 would benefit from the additional shot. He also questioned the timing, noting that Covid cases and hospitalizations remain at low levels and there’s no indication yet that there will be a surge in cases during the summer months. “What would then happen if there’s a winter surge? Moore asked. “Would people then be expected to get Dose 5 in the fall? Is repetitive boosting now going to be a national policy?” Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccine expert at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the FDA’s advisory committee, also questioned the agency’s reasoning for including the younger age group. He also said he worries about the possibility of “immune exhaustion” from frequent boosters. That’s when the immune system doesn’t mount the same kind of antibody response it did with previous shots. The second boosters use the same formulation and dosage as the initial boosters for adults — 30 micrograms for Pfizer’s and 50 micrograms for Moderna’s. Both companies said the additional boosters were generally well tolerated by people participating in the trials. NN: Get your 4th shot. If your last shot was more the  to 5 months ago you need the booster. I got mine in January as did most of my staff. The 3 people who did not get boosted got infected. One got flue like symptoms. The other got severely ill including loss of taste and smell. All got the tripack anibiotic and Ivermectin. The 3rd person infected is very ill with  what has been described as a sever case of flu like symptoms. His blood oxy levels are running 98%. No one who has gotten the 4th shoot the second booster has gotten infected.