Author: BlackMask Financial

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Russia’s Huge Oil Tanker Fleet Struggles To Find Buyer Destinations

https://youtu.be/rG4spR9ySBw

Several Russia-owned tankers have been idle at sea for more than a week along European and North American coasts as countries have either banned imports of Russian oil or Russian vessels docking at their ports, all this while many traders and buyers refuse to deal with Russian crude. As many as nine mid-sized vessels, Aframaxes, owned by Russian state tanker fleet operator Sovcomflot have been idle around North America and Europe for over a week, while a typical idle time for a tanker is a day or two, Bloomberg reported on Friday, quoting ship-tracking data it has compiled. Many Western countries and companies are not risking touching Russia-linked crude shipped by Sovcomflot, which is majority held by the Russian government. Sovcomflot, with a total fleet of 110 tankers, owns 52 Aframaxes, which makes it the world’s largest owner of those type of vessels, according to data from Clarksons Research Services cited by Bloomberg. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several countries banned Russian ships from their ports and waters. Canada and the UK were the first. On March 1, Canada prohibited Russian ships and fishing vessels from entering Canadian ports and internal waters. The UK banned on the same day from it ports any vessels “owned or operated by anyone connected to Russia” and said that authorities would also gain new powers to detain Russian vessels. Two days after the Canadian ban, two Sovcomflot-owned oil tankers rerouted from their destinations in Canada. In the UK, port workers at a terminal on the River Mersey, from where oil is pumped to Stanlow Oil Refinery, refused last week to unload Russian oil from a Germany-flagged ship.  While Sovcomflot’s tankers in the Pacific do not appear to be idling like the ones near Europe or North America, the problem for the Russian tanker owner could become much worse from now on, considering that a growing number of traders and buyers in Europe will likely be shunning Russia-related crude due to “self-sanctioning” and reputational risks. NN: lets suppose peace comes……. I do not think thats the case but lets suppose. That does nothing to get the 3 million Barrels a day of Russian tanker oil not making it to market back…… It will take years before sanctions are lifted..

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The Threat Of A Global Food Crisis Is Growing

The effects of the war in Ukraine are already being felt across the world, from rocking world energy markets to spurring a growing refugee crisis in Europe. But the conflict could have more ripple effects, including sparking a global food crisis. Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 30 percent of global wheat exports, while Russia is the world’s top exporter of fertilizer and a vital amount of the world’s wheat, corn, and barley is trapped in both countries because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The simultaneous disruptions to harvests and fertilizer production are driving up food prices and sending economic shock waves throughout the world. Since Russia’s February 24 invasion, world wheat prices have increased by roughly 21 percent, barley by 33 percent, and some fertilizers by as much as 40 percent. After more than a month of war, economists and aid agencies say the world is facing merging crises that could lead to a global food emergency. Food and fertilizer prices were already climbing to record levels before the conflict due to shipping constraints, high energy costs, and natural disasters. Supply was further strained in the early weeks of the war with Moscow limiting wheat exports and urging its fertilizer producers to temporarily suspend exports. Kyiv also banned exports of wheat and other staples. As the fighting continues and shows no signs of stopping, could the Ukraine war be at a tipping point for a global hunger crisis.

 

 

Alex Smith: The main way that the Russian invasion of Ukraine can impact and alter food prices and the world food supply is through the disruption of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Ukraine — and Russia as well — are massive exporters of grain to the world, specifically wheat, corn, barley, as well as a number of different kinds of plants and seed oils. Ukraine is the fifth-largest wheat exporter and the third-largest corn exporter in the world and they export wheat in particular to a lot of developing and lower-middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa, [and] South and Southeast Asia. So if we are to see a continued disruption of [those] wheat and corn exports, we’re likely to see high food prices, but also acute food shortages in specific places. We’re already seeing high food prices. I’m sure most people are aware of this to some degree. Disruptions in Black Sea trade, which is responsible for about 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports, has turned commodity traders and the world food market upside down. NN: Its Planting season…And its impossible to sow your fields when the tanks are blasting your tractor to hell. But it gets worse…. The Ukraine export terminals are a pile of rubble. And that is why grains and cooking oil are at record high prices.

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Oil prices turn to gains as Ukraine crisis continues

The almost 59 per cent rise in international oil prices in 2021 due to the strong economic recovery and the additional increase of over 24 per cent in the last two months caused by the geopolitical conflict in Ukraine should jolt the government to reform its fuel subsidy policy to maintain prudent fiscal management and reduce dependence on fuel imports. Before 2004, when Indonesia was still an oil exporter, it was still correct to assume that Indonesia would benefit from a rise in oil prices. However, after 2004 when the country became a net oil importer, the situation reversed. The Indonesian oil and gas trade deficit has risen steadily to as high as US$2.28 billion (S$3.09 billion) in December alone. The gap is a structural problem that needs to be addressed. Indonesia therefore should cut its dependence on oil imports by increasing domestic production. Since fuel is consumed mostly in the transportation sector, fuel consumption can be controlled or even cut down if petrol prices are increased to force motorists to use more fuel-efficient vehicles. It has become more urgent to control the fuel subsidy because international oil prices have now become twice as high as the average price assumed for setting domestic fuel prices and subsidies this year. The fuel subsidy scheme should be reformed with a better-targeted model. Integrated Social Welfare Data is key to determining which group of people are eligible to receive subsidies. It also needs to ensure timely and adequate social aid for the vulnerable and poor when oil price shocks happen.

 

The price of crude oil has been soaring due to the belief that economic sanctions against Russia will disrupt supply. Japan and Europe should rework their strategies so as to break away from their dependence on Russia for energy. The price rose by more than US$20 a barrel in about a week from the start of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen about US$40. The International Energy Agency, which comprises major oil-consuming nations, has announced that member countries had agreed to a coordinated release of 60 million barrels from oil reserves.  But the amount is less than a day’s global consumption and will have only a limited effect on pushing down prices. Consuming countries must take all possible measures to stabilise prices. Japan and other oil-consuming countries need to strongly urge producing countries to increase their output. There is a growing movement away from Russia among private energy companies. Among the development projects in the Russian far east region of Sakhalin, in which the Japanese government and companies are participating, Exxon Mobil of the United States has decided to withdraw from Sakhalin-1, whose main operations involve crude oil, and Britain’s Shell has decided to pull out of Sakhalin-2, whose main operations involve liquefied natural gas. These are important sites for Japan. If Russia continues its aggression, the government as well as trading and other companies that have invested in the projects will have to consider withdrawing from them. There is an urgent need for advanced nations to join forces to establish a system for flexible LNG supply in response to fluctuations in demand in each country, and then increase the number of alternative suppliers, such as Australia and the Middle East. The rush to decarbonisation, mainly in Europe, initially led to excessive emphasis being placed on renewable energy, which hindered investment in crude oil and natural gas development and caused prices to soar. During the transitional period to decarbonisation, it is important to continue making investments in gas fields. The role of nuclear power, which can provide a stable supply of electricity, will also become important. It is essential for the government to thoroughly implement safety measures and give full-scale support to the restart of nuclear reactors. NN: Yesterday a laughed so hard my sides hurt as oil prices dropped on the China Covid scare. Their must be another epidemic going around.. The stupid plague. Sanctions only serve to lessen supplies as companies critical the to Russia gas and oil export industry leave Russia. The other joke is that anyone someone can replace Russia energy exports…. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE NEXT DECADE… Figure it out Russia won. And it will assert itself as king of Europe. More specifically the KING of the north. Read it and weep. Ezekiel, God says to Gog (of the land of Magog), “You will come from your place in the far north, you and many nations with you, all of them riding on horses, a great horde, a mighty army. You will advance against my people Israel like a cloud that covers the land” ( Ezek. 38:15-16 *). I find this very interesting… Some believe the many nations referred to are a conquered Europe. And the land of Magog is Russia……. For me i know how to survive this and prosper and it is my sworn duty to help you if you will let me.

  • I cannot not tell you for sure if its the end of days…. As a renaissance man i consider all possibilities
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US seeing signs Russians trying to evade sanctions

Wealthy Russians are putting their money into Middle Eastern real estate to avoid sanctions from the West amid Russia’s ongoing military assault on Ukraine. Real estate companies are selling multiple properties to Russians every day in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Gul Gul, co-founder of the Golden Sign real estate company in Istanbul, told Reuters they are buying with cash or gold. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have issued severe sanctions against Russia’s wealthiest individuals, including oligarchs. Some of the country’s rich are seeking financial safety in other countries where they can invest freely in such areas as real estate. Thousands of Russians have arrived in Turkey and Dubai, some with large sums of cash because of the blocks on their bank accounts and credit cards. Several Russian financial institutions have been banned from using the SWIFT global messaging system that enables bank transactions, and Visa and Mastercard have suspended operations in Russia. With limited options remaining, real estate agents say, many Russian investors are purchasing property with cash and cryptocurrencies, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, since Russian troops began invading Ukraine in late February, Russians have bought 509 houses in Turkey, nearly double the number from the year before. Gul said some customers are buying three to five apartments each, Reuters reported. “We sell seven to eight units to Russians every day,” Gul told Reuters. “They buy in cash, they open bank accounts in Turkey, or they bring gold.” Dubai is also seeing strong interest in its real estate. “Right at the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, we launched a campaign in the region and the number of people who contacted us was…at least 10 times higher than usual,” Thiago Caldas, CEO of the Modern Living property firm in the emirate, told Reuters. Turkey and the UAE offer residency programs for people who buy expensive properties. Individuals who pay $250,000 for a property in Turkey and own it for three years receive a Turkish passport. In Dubai, the purchase of a $205,000 property earns you a three-year residency visa, Reuters said. Real estate agents in Dubai said Russian investors are buying the properties outright or paying a year’s rent in advance. “A radical amount of Russian investors are purchasing units,” Alan Pinto, a leasing consultant at Espace Real Estate in Dubai Marina, told The Guardian. “It’s been unbelievable.” Pinto said he has sold two properties valued up to $20 million to Russian investors in the past three weeks, The Guardian reported. Meanwhile, some Russian oligarchs could lose their luxury condominiums in the United States, with some of the properties worth tens of millions of dollars. A Justice Department task force has promised to “use every tool to freeze and seize” the assets of Russians on a sanctions list, including real estate. NN: Sanctions are a sick joke. They are a mere inconvenience. Many banks and people in finance offer should we say work arounds. Look the drug trade has been sanctioned for 50 years and it flourishes. Sanctions are not going to stop Putin any more then the DEA has stopped the trade in Cocaine, Heroin and Fentanyl.

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Oil tumbles near 9% as demand fears persist

Prices of crude oil dropped further in the red on Monday, plunging almost 9% amid demand worries prompted by the COVID-19 lockdowns in China. China is the world’s largest oil importer, and its second-largest oil consumer. West Texas Intermediate and Brent for May deliveries both plummeted 8.88% at 3:43 pm ET, selling for $103.13 and $109.25 per barrel, respectively. NN: do not let them make you stupid. Production out of both Russia and the middle east has dropped. As far as the China shut down… Its been more then offset by increased demand for jet fuels and  shipping and personal transportation as the world wakes up as all travel restrictions are lifted.

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Key Oil Producers Are Opting to Weaken Ties With the U.S. Rather Than Boost Supplies

OPEC+ will meet Thursday amid the war in Ukraine and associated sanctions, which have sharply reduced Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports. But the meeting of the oil cartel and its allies will likely only result in a continuation of monthly 400,000 barrels per day quota increases, less than half of which is matched to countries that actually have unused capacity. That outcome is a sharp departure from a bedrock assumption underpinning the U.S. relationships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—that they would use available spare capacity to help offset volume losses elsewhere when the world oil market faced a genuine crisis, as it does now. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. have chosen to severely weaken their ties with Washington. They are explicitly linking a threat to withhold production increases to demands for U.S. policy changes on other issues in the Middle East. In the process they are driving a wave of inflation in the U.S. and elsewhere. In their dealings with the U.S., Saudis in particular have often suggested that their maintenance of spare capacity provides a global public good. They have brought that capacity to bear to calm the market even when they disagreed with the U.S. on policy, such as increasing supply markedly in early 2003 as the U.S. prepared to topple Saddam Hussein. Not so now. A statement on March 9 by Yousef Al Otaiba, the Emirati ambassador to the U.S., initially hinted at an accelerated production increase and led to a sharp market correction. That position quickly changed. The two governments signaled via apparently authorized leaks in a number of prominent media outlets and op-eds by pro-Saudi commentators that both Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. want to use the current oil shortage to force the U.S. to make a slew of policy concessions. Their demands include greater U.S. military and intelligence support for their war in Yemen, for President Biden to back off his goal of negotiating a restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, and for the president to deal directly with Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. In particular, the two governments are demanding U.S. restore its designation of the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization. The Houthis have fought against Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. in their war in Yemen. The Trump administration added the Houthis to the terror list, but Biden lifted the designation in 2021 and has been unwilling to reinstate it in part due to concerns that it would impede humanitarian aid to assuage the famine in parts of Yemen. While pro-Saudi and U.A.E. sources have said that the Biden administration seems to be preparing to make concessions in the face of high oil prices, it is unlikely the administration will cave, except perhaps on the symbolic matter of Biden dealing directly with MBS, as the crown prince is known. Biden has not spoken directly to MBS since taking office. It is telling that the sourcing on the press coverage suggesting that the U.S. will make concessions appears to be from people on the Saudi/U.A.E. side, with no senior U.S. officials confirming any of this narrative. It also is telling that Secretary of State Antony Blinken is visiting only two Arab countries on his current trip abroad, Morocco and Algeria, after it was widely reported in early March that he was considering visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. NN: OPEC+ is in a dream world. They will not raise output. $100+ is a dream deal for them…

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U.S. oil exports surge, drawing crude away from storage hub

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. oil exports have climbed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and barrels of domestic oil that would typically go to the Cushing, Oklahoma, storage hub are instead being exported via the Gulf Coast, traders said. The invasion threw the oil market into disarray, as companies stopped buying Russian oil and prices skyrocketed. Worldwide buyers are looking to source crude wherever they can, and exports have risen in recent weeks from the United States, the world’s largest crude producer. Cushing, Oklahoma, known colloquially as the crossroads of the oil industry, is where holders of U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures contracts take delivery. Its vast storage capacity means it is still considered a guidepost for U.S. inventories even as barrels have shifted to the Gulf after Washington lifted the U.S. ban on exports in 2015. U.S. crude exports rose to 3.8 million barrels per day for the March 18 week, highest since July 2021, U.S. Energy Department data showed. Cushing stockpiles are currently at 25.2 million barrels, just off a four-year low reached in early March. Usually when Cushing stockpiles fall that low, the price for crude oil delivered at Midland, Texas, trades at a discount to Cushing in order to attract barrels into the storage hub, said Ryan Saxton, head of oil data at research firm Wood Mackenzie. However, that hasn’t happened. Midland crude is trading at a 70-cent premium to Cushing barrels. “It shows how much pull there is for Midland barrels,” said one U.S.-based trader. “The pull is to the U.S. Gulf Coast, so no need to go to Cushing.” U.S. crude is attractive to world buyers because it is trading at a steep discount of nearly $7 under the global benchmark Brent. That spread hit $9.20 earlier this month, the steepest discount in nearly two years. Worldwide demand has risen to nearly pre-pandemic levels, but supply has been hindered, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been slow to restore supply cuts enacted during the pandemic in 2020. Also, Russian supply could fall by 2 to 3 million barrels a day. Low storage levels are also an issue in Canada, the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude. Storage levels at monitored locations in Western Canada remained within 3 million barrels of record-low utilization set in 2017 at 30.3%, said Dylan White, senior research analyst for oil markets at Wood Mackenzie. That number is a marker for the operational floor for storage facilities, he said. Upcoming oil refinery maintenance, which typically occurs in the spring, could boost storage in both Canada and the United States, though balances should remain tight, Bank of America analysts said. NN: Bottom line their is not enough oil to meet demand. And I expect Putin to play the oil gas card. At the present consumers our balking at Putin’s demand to be paid in Rubles. It will be interesting to see how this plays out

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Baerbock: EU cannot ban Russian energy right away

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock remarked on Monday it would be impossible for the European Union to ban all of Russia’s energy products from its market immediately despite the bloc’s opposition to Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine. Speaking to reporters after the meeting with her counterparts from the bloc, Baerbock said the EU must take into account how much some of its members depend on Russia’s oil before making a decision about an embargo. She went on to urge the rest of the alliance to discuss the matter and reach a joint solution. Baerbock also stressed Germany itself uses a lot of the Eurasian country’s oil. Earlier in the day, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell said Brussels is ready to discuss imposing sanctions on Russia’s energy sector. Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto underscored introducing such penalties on the Russian gas would represent a “red line” for Budapest. NN: i wonder what metaverse leaders are in. Their is NO replacement for Russian Oil, gas, metals, food and fertilizer. SO matter what proclamations, summits and press ditties the fact is their are no substitutes and it will take years to replace Russian supplies

 

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UAE: Russia irreplaceable in OPEC+……Saudi govt calls role of OPEC+ deal ‘essential’

United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui stated at an industry event on Monday that, leaving political issues aside, Russia is a vital member of the OPEC+ group and its oil contribution is irreplaceable in the current global energy struggle. Taking into account that almost every country has been faced with a natural decline in oil production, Al-Mazroui indicated that OPEC+ countries will continue cooperating and will not let political matters impact their joint functioning. The statement comes after Saudi Arabia last week underlined the “essential” role of the OPEC+ agreement in preserving the balance and stability of the global oil markets.

Saudi govt calls role of OPEC+ deal ‘essential’

The Saudi Arabia government reaffirmed the “essential” role of the OPEC+ agreement in the global process of preserving the balance and stability of oil markets, the country’s SPA news agency reported on Tuesday. The Saudi cabinet also called on the nations of the international community to assume great responsibility in taking good care of the energy supplies and pay close attention to Iran’s help to Yemen’s Houthi forces with provisions of missiles and military drones.

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Unbelievable enthusiasm at Georgia rally – Trump….Poll: Biden’s job approval rating down to 40%

Former United States President Donald Trump highlighted on Sunday the presence of “unbelievable enthusiasm” and “massive crowd” at the rally in Commerce, Georgia, which he held on March 26. Commenting on the primaries for the Republican candidate in the 2022 gubernatorial election in the Peach State, Trump noted in his written statement that “[former US Senator from Georgia] David Perdue, running against horrendous Governor Brian Kemp, who let the election be rigged and stolen, is seeing a very big surge. […] Kemp is a disaster for Georgia.” At the rally, Trump, among other things, criticized US President Joe Biden’s response to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, condemned the country’s current economic policies, and expressed his belief China could invade Taiwan. NN: Midterm elections are 7 months away. Ukraine will not be resolve by then, Either will the energy crises nor the coming food shortages. And the Fed certainly will not have inflation under control. I expect a underrepresented Republican sweep.

 

 

 

Poll: Biden’s job approval rating down to 40%

United States President Joe Biden’s overall job approval rating has fallen to 40%, the lowest level since he became head of state, a new poll conducted by NBC News revealed on Sunday. On the other hand, 55% of those that participated in the survey said they disapproved of the president’s performance. In comparison, the poll NBC News conducted in April 2021 found that 53% of participants approved of Biden’s work, while 39% had the opposite opinion. The survey also found that 7 in 10 Americans are not confident about Biden’s ability to deal with Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. Meanwhile, 8 in 10 people expressed their fears the situation of Ukraine will lead to a rise in the prices of gas and using nuclear weapons.