This week, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Sholz ordered the suspension of the certification process for Nord Stream 2, the Russian gas pipeline that would’ve significantly boosted the supply of Russian gas to Germany. The move came in response to Russia’s decision to recognize the two breakaway Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent republics and following the decision to send Russian troops there, which the Kremlin claimed was for peacekeeping purposes. All EU governments, the UK, and the United States denounced the move and threatened sanctions. The UK and the U.S. later declared some, but, oddly enough, none of the sanctions targeted Russia’s massive energy industry. The UK, in its sanction drive, froze the assets of five Russian banks and three Russian individuals. The UK parliament also said it would target with sanctions the Russian MPs who voted in favor of the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk and said it would ban British companies from doing business in the two regions. The EU targeted politicians with punitive action. U.S. sanctions, as announced by President Joe Biden, include putting two big Russian banks and what he termed Russian elites and their families on the U.S. Specially Designated Nationals List, which effectively cuts off access of these individuals to the U.S. financial system. The other target was Russian sovereign debt. As Biden told reporters on Tuesday, the sanctions against Moscow basically prevent it from borrowing abroad—a move that sent shock waves across the debt trading industry. So, apart from Sholz’s suspension of Nord Stream 2, not a single sanction shot was fired against Russia’s energy or commodity industry. It is highly likely that such sanctions are on the agenda for later. But given the pain such sanctions are going to inflict on European countries and maybe even the United States itself, they might become a last resort. For starters, the suspension of Nord Stream 2 will be a lot more painful for Germany than for Russia if the pipeline remains suspended over the longer term. The point of Nord Stream 2 was to increase gas flows to Germany as the country shuts down its nuclear and coal power plants. So if there is no pipeline, Germany would have to replace the cheap pipeline gas with costlier LNG. As for Russia’s pain, Gazprom recently sealed a deal with China to double the capacity of its Power of Siberia gas pipeline that delivers gas to northern China. Over the short term, the stranding of the $12-billion Nord Stream 2 project would be unpleasant, but it won’t be the end of Gazprom. But why did nobody sanction Russian oil or gas or metals? First, there are a lot of big, important Western companies working in Russian oil and gas and metals. Second, Russia is a major global commodity supplier and sanctions would disrupt an already shaken global economy. Shell, BP, and Exxon are the biggest oil majors with Russian businesses. BP is the most intimately linked to Moscow, with a 25-percent stake in state oil major Rosneft. Commodity trading leaders including Vitol, Glencore, and Trafigura are also among Moscow’s business partners, the Financial Times wrote in an overview of the implications that Western sanctions could have on Russia’s economy and on its partners. “Extensive sanctions would be really problematic for the energy sector, even if they don’t directly target exports,” the FT quoted the head of political risk at GPW, a consultancy, as saying. The least that these Western companies could expect in the event of sanctions targeting their sectors would be “to down tools while they worked out their exposure,” Livia Paggi also told the FT. The most, judging by how sanctions unfolded in Venezuela, would be to leave the country—something that BP, for one, would be loathed to do given its pretty lucrative participation in Rosneft. Reuters published a factbox about Russia’s weight in international commodity trade this week, according to which, as of last year, Russia supplied some 6 percent of the world’s aluminum, 4 percent of the world’s cobalt, and 3.5 percent of the world’s copper. Nornickel, the metals giant, is the world’s largest nickel miner, supplying 7 percent of global output but also the world’s largest palladium miner and one of the top platinum miners. That’s not all, either, because Russia also produces 4 percent of global steel output and a tenth of global gold output. Sanctions against its mining industry would, in all likelihood, lead to even higher commodity prices. Yet besides metals—and oil and gas, which are the most obvious and most problematic sanction targets—Russia is also a major producer of fertilizers, accounting for 13 percent of the global total. It is also, critically, the world’s largest producer of wheat. What all this means is that for all the sanction threats the U.S., the UK, and the EU have considered in the past couple of months, their hands are, to a pretty significant extent, tied. Unless, of course, Washington, London, and Brussels are ready and willing to add more price pain for industries they are prioritizing in their economic plans, such as renewable energy and EV manufacturing.
EU unlikely to cut Russia off SWIFT for now, sources say
BRUSSELS (Reuters) – The European Union is unlikely at this stage to take steps to cut Russia off from the SWIFT global interbank payments system as it works on a new package of sanctions against Moscow for its action against Ukraine, several EU sources said. The foreign ministers of the Baltic states, once ruled from Moscow but now members of NATO and the EU, called on Thursday to stop Russia’s access to SWIFT.
“Urgency and consensus is utmost priority at the moment,” said an EU diplomat, adding that at this stage it meant no move on SWIFT, because doing so would have such wide-ranging consequences, also in Europe. Another EU diplomat said: “I am not aware of an agreement (on SWIFT sanctions) at this point.” Data from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) shows that European lenders hold the lion’s share of the nearly $30 billion in foreign banks’ exposure to Russia. Belgium-based SWIFT, a messaging network widely used by banks to send and receive money transfer orders or information, is overseen by central banks in the United States, Japan and Europe. NN: Losing SWIFT is not all it is cranked up to be. Reality is their are LOTS ways around what is a little more than a inconvenience. DEA typically shuts down drug cartels access to the traditional banking system, El Choppo built his billion dollar drug empire totally out of the system. What bought him down was a blond with big titties….. By the way the family still controls the majority of his wealth… The authorities were able to find very little of his money…. And Putin is a nuclear enhanced Kingpin….
West to impose severe sanctions on Russia – Biden
(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden announced he would impose “severe sanctions” on Russia after Vladimir Putin ordered a military assault on Ukraine, which Biden condemned as an “unprovoked and unjustified attack.”
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- Stocks Extend Losses as U.S. Adds Russia Sanctions: Markets Wrap
“President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering,” the American president said in a statement late Wednesday. “The United States and its allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way.” Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine after Putin ordered the operation. Ukraine’s foreign minister described it as a “full-scale invasion” beyond areas held by pro-Russian separatists. Biden said he would outline the punishments in an address to the American people on Thursday, after discussing the unfolding crisis with other Group of Seven leaders in the morning. Administration officials on Wednesday night were still deciding what the next round of penalties would look like, according to a White House official. In another statement released by the White House early Thursday, he said vowed that the U.S. and its allies would “be imposing severe sanctions on Russia.” Biden said in that statement he had spoken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy by telephone and “he asked me to call on the leaders of the world to speak out clearly against President Putin’s flagrant aggression, and to stand with the people of Ukraine.” Biden also said that he had briefed the Ukrainian leader “on the steps we are taking to rally international condemnation.” Zelenskiy said in a speech to his nation on Thursday morning that, “the U.S. has started to prepare international support.” He imposed martial law across the country, as his government warned Russian forces were attacking cities and urged citizens to hide in shelters to avoid missile attacks on Kyiv. Earlier Wednesday, the White House sanctioned the builder of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and its corporate leadership. That came on top of a sanctions package announced Tuesday following Putin’s recognition of breakaway territories in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine as independent states. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki earlier Wednesday did not rule out sanctions on Putin himself or a broader set of Russian oligarchs or financial institutions. Putin announced in a televised speech early Thursday that he had decided to order a “special military operation” to “protect” Donbas, saying the U.S. had crossed the Kremlin’s “red line” by expanding NATO in Eastern Europe. In the speech, Putin said Russia didn’t plan to occupy Ukraine but accused the U.S. of refusing to negotiate on Russia’s security demands. Zelenskiy said “Russia attacked our military infrastructure and our border guarders” and urged people to stay calm and stay at home if possible. “We are working. The army is working.” Biden said he would coordinate with NATO allies “to ensure a strong, united response that deters any aggression against the alliance.” The U.S. earlier this month sent 3,000 troops to central Europe but the White House has said it has no intention to deploy them in Ukraine. News of Putin’s move came as the UN Security Council was meeting in emergency session on the crisis. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said the council would vote on a resolution condemning Moscow’s actions on Thursday. As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia can veto that resolution. NN: Now come the global tizzy fit. All of a sudden Ukraine is important… REALLY? Well they never let them in the European Union. They have been trying to get into NATO for a decade…… What exactly comes from the Ukraine other then internet brides…. Still i do not see the US or NATO rushing in troops….. They were never a democracy corruption is their middle name. This will soon blow over. The real deal here is Europe gets half its energy from Russia as they tried to create their grenniewinnie wet dream. Sanctions? do make me laugh. Their is no replacement for Russia oil and gas…… In other words Europe has fucked themselves again.
Biden says Russia has begun an invasion of Ukraine, announces JOKE sanctions
S&P 500 confirms correction as stocks stumble on war fears
The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 1% slump on Tuesday confirmed that the world’s most watched stock index was in a correction for the first time since the 2020 Wall Street plunge brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. investors sold stocks amid growing fears of war between Russia and Ukraine, paring some losses after U.S. President Joe Biden announced a wave of sanctions against Russia. Those geopolitical concerns have added to recent worries about the possible path of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes as the central bank attempts to rein in inflation at 40-year highs. Earlier, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that the alliance believed Russia was still planning a big assault on Ukraine following Moscow’s recognition of two separatist regions in the former Soviet republic’s east. The S&P 500 is now down 10.25% from its record closing high of 4,796.56 set on Jan. 3, confirming a correction, based on a widely used definition of a decline of 10% or more. The index had briefly been down more than 10% from its intraday record several times in recent trading sessions, without closing at that level. The small-cap Russell 2000 index (.RUT) last month confirmed it was in a bear market, or drop of 20% from its most recent high. However, some analysts feel smaller stocks are in the process of bottoming out. Also in January, the Nasdaq confirmed that it had entered its fourth correction since the start of the pandemic. It is down almost 17% from its record high close in November. Rising interest rates tend to disproportionately weigh on shares of high-growth companies as investors value them based on earnings expected years into the future, and high interest rates erode the value of future earnings more than the value of earnings made in the short term. NN: Markets are dwon10% so far from the record breaking highs. The correction has not yet begun. But it is close. This will be a hotly contested wipe out. Which means the volatility will be a killer. We need to move very very carefully. This will be our greatest trade yet.
Full Ukraine invasion ‘likely’ within 24 hours – Morrison
Scott Morrison has spoken to Ukraine’s prime minister this evening, just hours after warning a full-scale Russian invasion was “likely to occur within the next 24 hours”. Australia has levelled financial and travel sanctions against Russian individuals and banks, but Morrison said the government was prepared to “do more”. Morrison reached Ukrainian prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, by phone around 6pm tonight. A spokesperson for the Australian PM said the government had an “unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”, and denounced “Russia’s aggressive behaviour towards Ukraine as unacceptable, unprovoked and unwarranted”. The spokesperson said: In a joint statement released just before 6pm, Morrison and the foreign minister, Marise Payne, said today’s round of sanctions was “the beginning of our sanctions process”, and warned any further invasion would be met with “the high cost it deserves”. The Australian government did not outline what further action could be taken. The PM has formally confirmed the Russian sanctions in a statement released earlier. Although not much is new or different to what he announced in the morning, he does specify the banks that will be affected: Rossiya Bank, Promsvyazbank, IS Bank, Genbank and the Black Sea Bank for Development and Reconstruction. These are in addition to the restrictions on state development bank VEB. Morrison also added that visa extensions will be granted to all Ukrainian nationals currently in Australia, with visas set to expire by 30 June. The extension will last for six months. NN: sounds tough… but the sanctions are a joke. Putin has planned this for year. As far as cut off from credit markets… Their are always the Chinese bearing gifts. China is desperate for Russian gas, oil and minerals… especially aluminum. And they got plenty of banking services to offer especially billions in loan. As long as Putin plays his oil and gas card he is unstoppable. China is the worlds largest oil importer.. A marriage made in commie heaven. Remeber 10 years ago the southern med pipeline was proposed. freeing Europe from Russia’s death grip. They chose the Russian pipeline to Germany. Now they will pay a heavy price.
Qatar says “almost impossible” to quickly replace Russian supplies to Europe
DOHA/LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Neither Qatar nor any other single country has the capacity to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of disruption due to a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Qatar’s energy minister said on Tuesday. With most of Qatari volumes are locked into long-term contracts mostly to Asian buyers, the amount of divertable volumes that can be shipped to Europe is only 10-15%, Saad al-Kaabi added. Kaabi’s comments renewed concerns over Europe’s security of gas supplies as tensions escalated between Russia and Ukraine on Tuesday after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. “Russia (provides) I think 30-40% of the supply to Europe. There is no single country that can replace that kind of volume, there isn’t the capacity to do that from LNG,” Kaabi told reporters at a gas conference in Doha. “Most of the LNG are tied to long-term contracts and destinations that are very clear. So, to replace that sum of volume that quickly is almost impossible,” he said. The United States and its European allies are set to announce fresh sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin formally recognised the independence of the two regions in eastern Ukraine. The sanctions could affect the Russian flow of gas into Europe. Germany on Tuesday halted the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, designed to double the flow of Russian gas direct to Germany. The move sent gas prices higher on Tuesday. Qatar and other countries such as Japan have recently been approached by the United States to reroute gas supplies to Europe in case conflict escalates. Sources told Reuters that Qatari LNG exports have been lower over the past few days as two of its mega trains have been down, another factor that could limit the spare amount to be sent to Europe. Japan said earlier this month it will divert some LNG cargoes to Europe after requests from the United States and the European Union. However, the few cargoes that arrived to Europe were cargoes already scheduled under a joint venuture between Japan’s JERA and France’s EDF and there was no incremental added supply. Currently facing a cold spell that has depleted LNG inventories, Japan is experiencing re-stocking demand and so it needs more LNG supply. “We’ve not seen anything concrete happen to supply yet. That could obviously change, but clearly, Qatar and Japan will be limited in their ability to help with extra cargoes if Europe loses access to Russian gas,” said Robert Songer, LNG analyst at commodities intelligence firm ICIS.
German government halts Nord Stream 2….. UK imposes sanctions on Russian banks, individuals….. Biden announces sanctions against Russia
The German government is putting the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project on hold due to the escalation of tensions in eastern Ukraine. According to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, “the situation has fundamentally changed” and Germany will seek to secure its energy supplies in another way. NN: Thats tough.love. Germany is shutting down a pipeline that has never been opened…. That will show them…...
UK imposes sanctions on Russian banks, individuals
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Tuesday that the United Kingdom is imposing sanctions on five Russian banks: Rossiya Bank, IS Bank, General Bank, Promsvyazbank, and Black Sea Bank as well as three “very high net worth individuals:” Gennady Timchenko, Boris Rotenberg and Igor Rotenberg. “This is the first barrage of what we are prepared to do, and we hold further sanctions at readiness to be deployed… if the situation escalates still further,” he stated. Johnson said the presence of Russian tanks and personnel in Ukraine amounts to a “renewed invasion” and warned Ukraine risks being drawn into a war “without a shred of justification.” He said Western allies must face the possibility that reaching a peaceful solution “through patient diplomacy may be in vain,” claiming that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is implacably determined to go further in subjugating and tormenting Ukraine.”
Biden announces sanctions against Russia
United States President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday new sanctions on Russia due to the recognition of the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk People’s Republics’ (LPR) independence. “Today, I’m announcing the first tranche of sanctions to impose costs on Russia in response to their actions yesterday. These have been closely coordinated with our allies and partners and will continue to escalate if Russia escalates,” said Biden. Moreover, he added that the US government is implementing a complete blockade on two Russian financial institutions, as well as “elites and their family members.” Besides, he also mentioned that the sanctions are likely to hurt American citizens, but the government is willing to take robust actions to ensure they affect the Russian economy. NN: these sanctions are a joke….. Putin is winning and for freedom lovers the world over its a sad day.
Oil hits highest since 2014 on Russia-Ukraine escalation
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil hit its highest since 2014 on Tuesday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel. The United States and its European allies are poised to announce new sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin formally recognised the two regions in eastern Ukraine, escalating a security crisis on the continent. “The potential for a rally over $100 a barrel has received an enormous boost,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. “Those who have bet on such a move anticipated the escalation of the conflict.” Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $3.48, or 3.7%, at $98.87 at 0900 GMT, having earlier reached $99.38, the highest since September 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $4.41, or 4.8%, to $95.48 versus Friday’s settlement, having earlier reached $96, also the highest since 2014. The U.S. market was closed on Monday for a public holiday. The crisis over Ukraine has added further support to an oil market that has surged due to tight supplies as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, have resisted calls to boost supply more rapidly. A senior British minister said on Tuesday Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a situation as grave as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum on Tuesday stuck to the OPEC+ view that more supply was not needed, citing the prospect of more production from Iran if its nuclear deal with world powers is revived. Talks are ongoing on renewing Iran’s nuclear agreement with world powers, which could eventually boost Iran’s oil exports by over 1 million barrels per day. NN: What a screw up. They should have sanctioned Putin when he started the troop build up. This is not the end game. But the start of his dream to rebuild the former Soviet Union…. And it is a significant start indeed.
Putin orders Russian troops into Ukraine separatist regions |
- Ukraine and West on alert for Russia creating pretext to invade
- UN Security Council holds emergency meeting
- Witness sees unmarked tanks entering Donetsk
- Global markets rattled, oil hits 7-year high
MOSCOW, Feb 21 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine after recognising them as independent on Monday, accelerating a crisis the West fears could unleash a major war. A Reuters witness saw tanks and other military hardware moving through the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk after Putin formally recognised the breakaway regions and ordered the deployment of Russian forces to “keep the peace”. About five tanks were seen in a column on the edge of Donetsk and two more in another part of town, a Reuters reporter said. No insignia were visible on the vehicles. Putin’s announcement drew international condemnation and immediate U.S. sanctions to halt U.S. business activity in the breakaway regions and ban import of all goods from those areas. The measures were separate from sanctions the United States and its allies had prepared if Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki said.
A senior U.S. official said the deployment to breakaway enclaves did not yet constitute a “further invasion” that would trigger the harshest sanctions as Russia already had forces there, but that a wider campaign could come at any time. NB: What the fuck. Russia walks in takes Ukraine territory without fireing a shot the the spinless lefty liberals say its not an invasion… So what the hell is it?
Britain, France and Germany also agreed to respond to Russia’s recognition of the breakaway regions with sanctions, and the White House said it would announce further measures on Tuesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who received a solidarity call from U.S. President Joe Biden, accused Russia of wrecking peace talks and ruled out territorial concessions. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told an emergency meeting of the Security Council that Moscow’s recognition of the eastern regions was part of its attempt to create a pretext for a further invasion of Ukraine. “Tomorrow, the United States will impose sanctions on Russia for this clear violation of international law and Ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity,” she told reporters after the Security Council meeting on Monday evening. “We can, will, and must stand united in our calls for Russia to withdraw its forces, return to the diplomatic table and work toward peace.” The Russian U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, warned Western powers to “think twice” and not worsen the situation. China called for all parties to exercise restraint while Japan said it was ready to join international sanctions on Moscow in the event of a full-scale invasion. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a ceremony to sign documents, including a decree recognising two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent entities, with leaders of the self-proclaimed republics U.S. diplomatic staff, who had been moved from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv, were ordered to spend the night in Poland as the crisis deepened. Oil jumped to a seven-year high, safe-havens currencies like the yen rallied and global stocks tumbled as Europe’s eastern flank stood on the brink of war. The rouble extended its losses as Putin spoke, at one point sliding beyond 80 per dollar. In a lengthy televised address packed with grievances against the West, a visibly angry Putin said eastern Ukraine was ancient Russian land. Russian state television showed Putin, joined by Russia-backed separatist leaders, signing a decree recognising the independence of the two Ukrainian breakaway regions – the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic. Putin had announced his decision in phone calls to the leaders of Germany and France earlier, the Kremlin said. In his address, Putin delved into history as far back as the Ottoman empire and as recent as the tensions over NATO’s eastward expansion. His demands that Ukraine drop its long-term goal of joining the Atlantic military alliance have been repeatedly rebuffed by Kyiv and NATO states. “I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago – to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” Putin said. A French presidential official said the speech “mixed various considerations of a rigid and paranoid nature”. The United States says Russia has massed a force numbering 169,000-190,000 troops in the region, including the separatists in the breakaway regions, and has warned of invasion at any moment.
Putin has for years worked to restore Russia’s influence over nations that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Ukraine holding an important place in his ambitions. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Russia denies any plan to attack its neighbour, but it has threatened unspecified “military-technical” action unless it receives sweeping security guarantees, including a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO. Recognition of the separatist-held areas will narrow the diplomatic options to avoid war, since it is an explicit rejection of a seven-year-old ceasefire mediated by France and Germany. NN: From a tactical perspective taking another slice of the Ukraine without firing a shot is a brilliant move. The coming sanction are little more then hitting a tank with a fly swatter……