Author: BlackMask Financial

But Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi says the pair of nations did agree on “guiding principles” for future talks… You can wipe your ass with joke guiding principles

Oil edged lower on signs that the US and Iran have made progress in nuclear talks, eroding a risk premium in benchmark futures prices. West Texas Intermediate fell to settle near $62 a barrel after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the two countries reached a “general agreement” on the basis of a potential nuclear deal that would lift sanctions on Tehran and ease the risk of war in the Middle East. Tehran’s negotiators are scheduled to return with a new proposal in two weeks, a US official said Tuesday. Success in the talks could pave the way for a lasting removal of a geopolitical risk premium that has kept prices elevated since the start of the year amid rising global oil supplies. The development erased earlier gains after Iran said it would shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours due to military drills, though traders were skeptical of a meaningful disruption to the waterway that ships about a fifth of the world’s barrels. The US has also sent a second aircraft carrier to the region. The two sides will each draft and exchange texts for a deal before setting a date for a third round of talks, Araghchi said, cautioning that the next stage would be “more difficult and detailed.”

US Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday that negotiations with Iran went well but the country has not yet acknowledged President Donald Trump’s red lines.

“Agreeing on guiding principles to begin drafting text is not the same as resolving enrichment limits, inspection protocols or sequencing of sanctions relief. The market seems to understand that distinction. Implied volatility has eased from recent highs, yet spot prices remain comfortably above $60 a barrel. That resilience speaks to lingering skepticism that diplomacy will translate into anything meaningful.”
— Brendan Fagan, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.

Trend-following commodity trading advisers positioned in WTI breached several sell triggers near $62 a barrel, accelerating the price slide, according to data from Kpler’s Bridgeton Research Group. The robot traders liquidated long positions to sit at 27% short in WTI on Tuesday, compared with 45% at the start of the session, the firm said.

Crude is up almost 10% so far this year thanks to a combination of supply disruptions, geopolitical risk and a buildup of sanctioned barrels. While futures have settled in a band between $61 and $65 for most of this month, the outcome of the flurry of diplomatic efforts in the coming days and hours could dictate the path forward for prices.

NN: Their has been no real progress…. so we wait!

The F-22 stealth fighter jets and F-16 fighter aircraft are currently being moved from the United States and Europe to the Middle East, data from Flightradar showed on Tuesday. Over 10 F-22 airplanes and more than 30 F-16 jets are believed to have departed their bases. The move comes amid a new round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, held in Geneva, Switzerland. In addition, earlier this week, Tehran commenced its military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. Washington has been keen on reinforcing its military presence in the region in the past couple of weeks, as tensions with Iran continue to linger.

NN: The US talks peace as we SEE a Hugh military build up in the middle east. Watch what they do not what they say.

Iran has launched live missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz as part of a previously announced maritime military drill, coinciding with a new round of indirect nuclear talks with the United States in Geneva. Iranian media said on Tuesday that early in the morning, the exercise involved missile launches from inside the country and along its coastline, targeting designated sites in the strategic waterway.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei left a message for United States President Donald Trump on Tuesday, saying that Washington “won’t be able to destroy” Tehran, as it hasn’t been able to do so in the past 47 years. “They keep saying an aircraft carrier was sent toward Iran. An aircraft carrier is indeed a dangerous tool, but the weapon capable of sending it to the bottom of the sea is even more dangerous,” Khamenei commented during a speech. Meanwhile, a second round of nuclear negotiations between the two countries is currently underway in Geneva.

NN: Lets find out if the US can destroy Khomeini and his reign or terror or not

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) started military drills in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, as it was reported it would. According to the local Tasnim Agency, the exercise, titled Smart Control of Hormuz Strait, was organized to test the army ahead of “possible security and military threats.” The drills came ahead of Iran’s negotiations with the United States on its nuclear status in Geneva. The use of the Strait of Hormuz has been one of the main points of discussion and misunderstanding between Iran and Washington.

NN: See my email and previous news stories

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a conference on Sunday that any deal with Iran must include the dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, noting that he still feels sceptical about the whole situation. “All enrichment has to leave Iran. There should be no enrichment capability. Not stopping the enrichment process, but dismantle the infrastructure that allows you to enrich in the first place,” he commented. He further added that the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile program also needs to be addressed. “The axis of terror” must be dismantled, Netanyahu insisted. Talking about Hamas, he underscored that its tunnels need to be destroyed. So far, Israel dismantled 150 kilometers of a total of 500 kilometers of these tunnels, Netanyahu noted.

 

United States President Donald Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu back in December 2025 that, should talks with Iran fall through, he would support Israel targeting Tehran’s ballistic missile program, CBS News reported on Sunday, citing sources.

The two sources detailed that US military and intelligence figures have been having internal talks about the possibility of backing a second round of Israeli attacks against Iran.

The focus has been on how Washington could assist in such a mission, including a potential aerial refueling for Israeli jets, as well as the question of ensuring overflight permission for the airspace of other countries in the Middle East. It remains unclear which countries could give such permissions, as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates all previously said they would forbid the use of their airspace for such purposes.

The temperature in the Persian Gulf has risen to the boiling point

President Donald Trump stated publicly that it has been “difficult to make a deal” with Iran and warned that “sometimes you have to have fear.” At the same time, U.S. officials confirmed the Pentagon is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long military operations if diplomacy fails.

That is not a headline. That is a posture shift.

Two U.S. aircraft carriers are now positioned in the region. Additional fighter squadrons, guided-missile destroyers, and thousands of troops are deploying. This is not symbolic force projection. This is sustained-operation readiness. And here’s what matters to us:

The United States fully expects Iran to retaliate. If strikes occur, planners anticipate back-and-forth exchanges — not a one-off event.

Now let’s talk oil. Iran exports roughly 1.5–2.0 million barrels per day directly, much of it flowing quietly toward China despite sanctions. But that’s only the surface number. Roughly 20% of global oil supply — nearly 20 million barrels per day — moves through the Strait of Hormuz.

Any disruption, even temporary, immediately injects a risk premium into Brent crude. Insurance rates spike. Tanker routes shift. Freight spreads widen. Refiners scramble for alternative grades. Markets do not wait for missiles to fly.

They price probability. We have already seen risk premiums creep into futures structure when tensions flare. The real acceleration begins if:

• Iranian missile forces target a U.S. base in Qatar, Bahrain, or Kuwait

• Proxy forces escalate in Iraq or Syria

• Maritime harassment increases in Hormuz

• Israel becomes directly engaged In a sustained campaign scenario,

U.S. strikes would likely expand beyond nuclear facilities to include state and security infrastructure. That shifts the calculus from limited deterrence to systemic escalation.

That’s when oil can spike $25, Brent oil topping over $100. in a matter of days

We’ve seen similar magnitude moves in prior Gulf crises — 1. Tanker War (1980s Iran–Iraq Conflict)

• Repeated attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf introduced a persistent risk premium into oil prices.
• Supply never fully shut down, yet prices remained elevated compared to fundamentals.
• The market priced sustained risk rather than a single event.

Key takeaway:
Persistent Gulf risk can keep risk premiums priced in even without physical interruption — exactly what we’re seeing now.

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2. September 2019: Abqaiq/Khurais Strikes

• Houthi/IRGC-linked strikes temporarily knocked out ~5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi capacity.

Market move:

• Brent surged nearly 15% in one session — one of the largest one-day percentage moves on record.

This was a real supply shock — and even though production was restored quickly, the price spike size showed how vulnerable the market is when core infrastructure is hit.

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3. January 2020: Soleimani Strike

• Following the U.S. killing of Qassem Soleimani:
  • Brent spiked sharply in early trade.
  • Once initial fears of full-scale retaliation eased, the market gave back much of the move.

 

Inference for today:
If the current situation remains contained and diplomatic channels win, we might see a similar spike-fade pattern.

But if we move into sustained exchanges — as Pentagon officials are preparing for — we shift into a continued follow-through regime rather than a one-off blip.

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What This Means for Brent

Scenario	Likely Price Response
Contained, diplomacy prevails	Spike → Pullback
Limited strike on infrastructure	$10–$15 move → Volatility range expansion
Sustained exchange + retaliation	Break above $90, momentum toward $95+
Hormuz disruption credible	$100+ psychological target

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Why It Matters Now

Right now, the market isn’t tight because of current flows —
it’s tight because of potential interruption.

That’s a key distinction: risk gets priced before a bullet is fired.

Today’s spare capacity cushion is thinner than most assume once you strip out theoretical OPEC barrels. Speaking of OPEC — they are watching closely. Saudi Arabia does not want uncontrolled price spikes that destroy demand. But neither will they flood the market to compensate for Iranian supply losses while missiles are flying. That creates a volatility pocket. Add to this:

• Commercial airlines adjusting Middle East routes around Iram

• U.S. bomber and carrier deployment

• Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warning of base-level retaliation

This is how geopolitical risk reprices commodities. The oil market is not tight because of current flows. It is tight because of potential interruption. That distinction matters. Since we last spoke, the probability tree widened. Diplomacy continues quietly in Oman.

But military planners are preparing for the alternative. Markets will move before politicians announce decisions. The question is not whether tensions exist. The question is when traders will positioned for sustained escalation.

We are monitoring: – Hormuz traffic volume – Brent time spreads – U.S. SPR posture – OPEC commentary – Iranian export tracking – Regional military activity

Volatility creates opportunity — but only for those prepared before the headline crosses the wire. We will continue to update you as this develops. Stay alert.

Nick