Author: BlackMask Financial

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‘Default’: creditors reject Argentine debt restructing

 

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Bondholders  rejected a debt restructuring proposal by Argentina’s Buenos Aires province and said the offer would likely lead to a default, adding tension to a larger debt crisis plaguing the South American country. The group of bondholders, which holds more than 40% of the province’s external debt, said in a statement the offer proposed by Buenos Aires was “not based on credible policy efforts or forecasts that bondholders can support.” “The terms of the offer do not reflect the province’s reasonable payment capacity and the offer will not lead to a consensual resolution,” the statement said. Buenos Aires is Argentina’s largest and wealthiest province.

“Rather, it will lead to a failed debt restructuring, likely default and a protracted period of uncertainty that will inhibit investment and economic recovery in the province,” it added.

The province’s proposal from last week, which is part of a $7.148 billion debt restructuring, included a three-year payment halt and large cut to interest payments. It amounted to around $5 billion in relief over the next decade. Buenos Aires faces a bond payment of around $200 million due on May 1, with a grace period of 10 days, said Matías Rajnerman, chief economist at Ecolatina consultancy. Failure to pay as of May 11, would therefore trigger a default. That would come just after holders of Argentina’s national debt are expected to accept or reject a proposal to restructure around $65 billion in foreign-law sovereign bonds. Those bondholders have also signaled they will likely reject it. “So the fate of the province is tied to the fate of the nation, in terms of debt restructuring,” Rajnerman said. The Buenos Aires proposal followed a structure similar to an offer to bondholders by Argentina’s government as the country seeks to avoid default during an economic crisis worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. Nick Note: Another wipe out for the fund retirement account masses. Fidelity and Blackrock  hold most of this soon the worthless debt. The loses will be huge mostly for idiots chasing high yield. In those ha ha ha sold as safe  “government security’s” accounts.  The way they get 3% yield is by purchasing Argentinean and for that matter Venezuelan debt that yields double digits. Of course the day of reckoning comes for investors when the junk shit wipes out……. again.

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EIA: US crude stockpiles down by 5M barrels

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 526.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Nick Bit: This overhang will be quickly absorbed as Gentleman Starts their engines once again.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 12.9 million barrels per day during the week ending May 15, 2020 which was 0.5 million barrels per day more  than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 69.4% of their operable capacity last week. Nick Bit: Refinery utilization rate reflects the facts that the suits panicked and shut her down. BAD DECISION! Because their will not be enough refined products as they set the captives free to shop.

Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 7.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 194,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.4 million barrels per day, 24.6% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 526,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 322,000 barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.8 million barrels last week and are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are about 19% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels last week and are about 14% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased last week by 5.0 million barrels last week.Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 16.1 million barrels a day, down by 19.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 6.7 million barrels a day, down by 29.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 13.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 66.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.  Nick Note:  I usulally post this report with in hours of publication. You might have noticed after we took profits in oil and the S&P500 i wnet quiet on you. It is critical that i analyize the new reality. My opinion is the markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves. I still belive we will get $50 oil and new records in the S&P500 BUT i see a pull back coming. Reality is they set the captives free a little to soon. If i am guseeing lucky i see cases popping which will spook the stock and oil markets. I want to use the pull backs if i am lucky enough to get them to reaccumiliate our positions. I have analyized thousnads of pages of data. For you edification i have published a link to the oil and distillates price spread sheet. It shows that FOR SURE in y opinion prices have bottomed.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/twipmnvwall.xls

 

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Cash, long a refuge in uncertain times, now under suspicion

The coronavirus pandemic has reawakened debate about the continued viability of what has been the physical lifeblood of global economies: paper money and coins. 

(AP) — In troubled times, people have been known to hoard currency at home — a financial security blanket against deep uncertainty. But in this crisis, things are different. This time cash itself, passed from hand to hand across neighborhoods, cities and societies just like the coronavirus, is a source of suspicion rather than reassurance. No longer a thing to be shoved mindlessly into a pocket, tucked into a worn wallet or thrown casually on a kitchen counter, money’s status has changed during the virus era — perhaps irrevocably. The pandemic has also reawakened debate about the continued viability of what has been the physical lifeblood of global economies: paper money and coins.

From the supermarkets of the United States and Japan to the shantytowns of Africa to the gas stations of Tehran, a growing number of businesses and individuals worldwide have stopped using banknotes in fear that physical currency, handled by tens of thousands of people over their useful life, could be a vector for the spreading coronavirus.

 Businesses from refusing to accept currency, and some countries from urging citizens to stop using banknotes altogether. In the midst of the coronavirus era, a thousand calculations are made before cash is handled — mostly with gloved hands. Some leave the money laid out on surfaces for days, for the virus to die. Others disinfect banknotes with spray. Some even microwave them in the belief it kills the virus. In China, banks are now required to sterilize cash with ultraviolet light or heat, then store notes for at least a week before they are given to customers. “In many areas, cash was already beginning to disappear due the increased risk of robbery, the ease of internet ordering, and the ubiquity of cell phones,” says Zachary Cohle, an assistant professor at the department of economics at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut.

Sweden, Finland, Norway, Canada and others have slowly phased out cash to the point where using it in large amounts seems suspicious. The United Kingdom and Australia are among countries expected to become cashless societies. And in China, use of cash by consumers has plunged as smartphone-based payment services rose in popularity over the past decade.

“I always pay with cash — as a matter of principle!” Ingel Strobl, a 76-year-old pensioner, says while shopping at a bakery in central Vienna. “I know they want to abolish cash. But I don’t want that we lose our right to our own money. You know what I mean anyway! I stick to cash — corona or not.”’

Since the virus outbreak, however, shops that have remained open, like grocery stores, have posted signs encouraging people to pay with cards. Many are: According to Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, 43% of people have changed their payment behavior in the past few weeks; now, a large percentage are likely to make contactless payments with a card.

Dorothy Harpool, director of student and community initiatives and lecturer at Wichita State University’s W. Frank Barton School of Business, predicted the pandemic would lead some consumers to rethink their use of cash. Nick Note: Cash is a problem and the problem is growing.  My high hopes for bitcoin have fizzled.  Gold and silver are  useless and draws bigger scrutiny then a bag of cash and cocaine in the trunk of a stopped car. And its impossible to spend! Their is a solution as i learned in the collapse of the banking system in Greece and Cyprus. A international Debit card was the only money.  The solution is a debit card tied to the INTERNATIONAL  MasterCard/Visa network. Its accepted anywhere in the world in most every currency. You can spend what ever you want and no one bats a eye. Panhandlers on the street accept master card or visa. Get this I know a guy who bough a Ferrari on his MasterCard. Now if your very cleaver you can also set up a offshore entity nice and legal like to domicile your MasterCard. No NOT the  Cayman Islands. That place has a certain smell to it. How about the worlds oldest banking center. Like London England. And how about setting up a entity that dates back to the Crusades and the Tempers. I am talking about a  offshore English Commonwealth Jersey Trust. That has trillions of dollars of established Trusts respected the world over. A jersey Trust administrated out of England with access to your funds through a MasterCard is a dream come true. All Anti money laundering, Know your client, Patriot Act and IRS compliant. More on this later.

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Oil Jumps After API Reports Draw In Crude Oil Inventories

American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday a large crude oil inventory draw, of 4.8 million barrels for the week ending May 15.In the previous week, the API estimated a large build in crude oil inventories of 7.58 million barrels. Meanwhile, the EIA’s estimates were for wildly different, with the industry body reporting last week that the inventories had fallen by 700,000 barrels. WTI was trading up on Tuesday afternoon prior to the API’s data release, but the day had already seen swings from a gain for the day to a loss, then back to a gain as the demand picture looks a bit rosier than has in past weeks on the last day of the June futures contract—a day that last month was plagued with uncertainty and negative oil prices. Oil production in the United States has now fallen from 13.1 million bpd on March 13 to 11.6 million  bpd for May 8, according to the Energy Information Administration—a drop of 1.5 million bpd. At 4:00 pm EDT on Tuesday the WTI benchmark was trading up on the day by $0.54 (+1.70%) at $32.36—nearly $7 per barrel up from this time last week. The price of a Brent barrel was trading down on Tuesday, by $0.10 -(0.29%), at $34.71 as traders took their profits. The Brent barrel is down roughly $5 per barrel week on week, with the spread between WTI and Brent closing. The API reported a draw of 651,000 barrels of gasoline for week ending May 15—compared to last week’s 1.911-million-barrel draw. ]Distillate inventories were up by 5.1 million barrels for the week, compared to last week’s 4.712-barrel build, while Cushing inventories saw a draw of 5 million barrels. Nick Note: As we predicted as they set the Captives free… to Shop they will start their engines and inventories will drop

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U.S. Shale Cuts Production Deeper And Faster Than Expected

According to different sources and company announcements, U.S. producers – including oil majors – have so far cut production by at least 1.5 mb/d in 2Q20, which is likely to be achieved by shut-ins of higher-cost wells, partial reductions in output of selected wells and the deferral of ‘putting on production’ wells,’’ OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report last week

US oil production PLUNGED in early April as Saudi Arabia and Russia  tried to repair the broken OPEC + alliance and begin further cuts to support oil prices that decimated the shale patch American. With new OPEC + agreement, Saudi Arabia cuts oil production and export allocations for June to “stabilize” the market – or perhaps better described, to save its oil revenues and economy defaulters. But the US shale patch reacts to the wellhead economy and cuts US oil production much faster and more deeply than analysts originally thought. The decline in US production has been so rapid that US producers are now one of the biggest contributors to the OPEC + coalition (to which they are not a party) to reduce global oil supply, according to Julian Lee, oil strategist for Bloomberg. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that U.S. production has declined in the past two months. But weekly estimates from EIA data also suggest that the decline in production in recent weeks has been much more pronounced, Lee said. Analysts expect US shale to cut second quarter production sharply due to weak demand, high inventories and low oil prices, and many expect larger reductions than suggested by the EIA estimates. Latest available weekly data EIA production estimated at 11.6 million bpd for the week ending May 8. But the estimate adjustment, formerly known as unrecorded crude oil, is nearly -1 million bpd, the most negative adjustment factor for crude oil production already. Lee of Bloomberg said this could mean the EIA either overestimates US production by 914,000 bpd for the week until May 8, or underestimates demand, or somewhere in between. If the 914,000 b / d of “unrecognized” crude oil is on the supply side, this suggests that crude oil production in the United States was not 11.6 million b / d during from the week before May 8, but rather, from a million b / d down to around 10.6 million b / d. Analysts and industry leaders are seeing more restrictions in the United States this quarter than the EIA’s weekly estimates suggest. Closures across the United States and Canada combined range between 3.5 million and 4.5 million barrels per day, said Jeremy Goebel, executive vice president, Commercial, at Plains All American Pipeline on the earnings call may’s beginning. Raw US cuts, including liquids, could reach at least 2 million barrels per day in June, with Permian-based producers accounting for 42% of the cuts, according to Rystad Energy analysis from last week. “The actual production reductions are likely to be greater and occur not only because of closures, but also because of a natural decline in existing wells when new wells and boreholes decrease,” said the energy research company. “According to various sources and company announcements, American producers – including the oil majors – have so far reduced production by at least 1.5 mb / d in 2Q20, which should be achieved by closing wells more costly, partial reductions in production from selected wells and postponement of production from wells, “OPEC said in its monthly oil market report last week. Platform count data suggests that drilling activity has stopped. According to data from Baker Hughes, the number of oil rigs declined for the week until May 15 by 34 rigs, bringing the total to just 258 …a loss of 544 rigs Year after year. It is the smallest number of active oil platforms in play since mid-2009. In North Dakota, for example, drilling rigs active as of May 17 numbered only 13– five times less than the 66 platforms operating on the same day a year ago, according to data from the Department of Mineral Resources of North Dakota. Large production cuts and low oil prices mean that some small, indebted American shale producers will not survive this slowdown, but those who survive will get stronger. Accelerated production cuts in the US oil sector in Q2 – voluntary, involuntary, economy-oriented or whatever – would accelerate the rebalancing of the market and help the OPEC + coalition in its mission to “stabilize the market”, in addition other words, to drive up oil prices.

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Leaked Pentagon memo warns of ‘real possibility’ of COVID-19 resurgence

Defense Secretary Mark Esper declared Friday that a government task force charged with developing a COVID-19 vaccine would have a widely available injection by the end of the year. But a leaked Pentagon memo shows that behind the scenes, senior leadership have been planning for the possibility that the services could be contending with coronavirus until well into next year. The memo, first reported by Task and Purpose, warns of not only a resurgence of the virus, but the “real possibility” that a viable vaccine won’t be available until “at least the summer of 2021.” “Therefore, we must now re-focus our attention on resuming critical missions, increasing levels of activity, and making necessary preparations should a significant resurgence of COVID-19 occur later this year,” the memo reads, though it doesn’t bear Esper’s signature. Kenneth Rapuano, assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security, prepared the memo, Task and Purpose reported. “We can confirm we continue to develop plans that address operating in the COVID-19 environment,” Pentagon spokesman Chris Garver told Military Times on Tuesday, though he could not confirm the specific memo draft. “Senior DoD officials have discussed the development of a plan to reduce Health Protection Conditions around the world and continue the 2020 summer move cycle safely. The plans have not been approved by senior DoD leaders yet, and we’re not going to discuss what might be in the final version of those plans.” The memo details requirements for expanded testing, surveillancing and contact tracing procedures, while at the same time preparing for new outbreaks, shortages of personal protection equipment and insufficient immunity to the virus into summer 2021.

“All indications suggest we will be operating in a globally-persistent COVID-19 environment in the months ahead,” the memo reads. “This will likely continue until there is wide-scale immunity, through immunization, and some immunity post-recovery from the virus.”

Concerns have been rising that re-infection, as well as an evolving definition of recovery, could be part of that threat, as aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt sailors previously cleared of COVID-19 have since re-tested positive. Columbia University research released in late April found that in the viruses responsible for past coronavirus epidemics, including Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, did not result in full immunity after an infection. “The evidence from endemic coronaviruses suggests that immunity is short-lived and re-infection is common within one year, with symptom severity possibly more a function of genetics than the presence or absence of antibodies,” environmental health scientist Jeffrey Shaman said in an April 29 release. “Research on endemic coronaviruses, along with findings for SARS and MERS, provide context for understanding protective immunity against repeat SARS-CoV-2 infections.” The Pentagon’s plans have quickly accelerated since the memo was drafted, with rollout of an asymptomatic testing plan, as well as the Friday announcement of Operation Warp Speed, a multi-agency effort to develop a vaccine, headed up by Army Materiel Command boss Gen. Gus Perna. The other co-lead called the vaccine timeline “credible” but noted that it will be “challenging.”

“We will deliver, by the end of this year a vaccine, at scale, to treat the American people and our partners abroad,” Esper said Friday at the White House.

That statement was in stark contrast to briefings earlier this year by top U.S. health officials, explaining that vaccine development is generally anywhere from a 12 to 18-month process. That includes officials from the Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases, who told reporters in March that the lab was preparing to begin testing a vaccine base ― a delivery formula, but with no live virus ― and that it would be the better part of the year before human trials on a vaccine could begin. Nick Note: It boils down to self serving spin versus reality. Their is one hell of a lot of money on the table for drug companies. And Trumps election gets down to the state of the economy. And the state of economy gets down to the infection and death rate. and the infection rate is what drives the economy because people locked in there houses get high, fuck and watch TV. And that means they are not starting their engines, not shopping and the only thing they are dropping from is the coronavirus….

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Trump: I am currently taking hydroxychloroquine

A spokeswoman for Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday morning that the US president is taking a malaria drug as a defense against Covid-19, despite his own administration’s warnings that the drug could have dangerous side-effects. The confirmation came hours after the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, expressed alarm that Trump was taking the drug since he is “morbidly obese”, in her words. At the White House, the press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, told CBS News Trump was taking hydroxychloroquine. “I can absolutely confirm that,” she said. “The president said himself he’s taking it. That’s a given fact. He said it. The president should be taken at his word.” Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday that for “a couple weeks” he had been taking hydroxychloroquine, which he first touted as a Covid-19 treatment in March, before the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warned that the drug could cause irregular heartbeats and other cardiac trouble. The FDA has approved the drug for the treatment of malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. “You’d be surprised at how many people are taking it … The frontline workers, many, many are taking it,” Trump said on Monday. “I happen to be taking it. I happen to be taking it. I’m taking it, hydroxychloroquine. Right now, yeah. A couple weeks ago I started taking it. Because I think it’s good, I heard a lot of good stories … I take a pill every day.” The White House on Monday night issued a statement by Sean P Conley, Trump’s doctor, that did not quite confirm Trump’s claim to be taking hydroxychloroquine, muddling the issue. “The president is in very good health and has remained symptom-free,” the statement said. “After numerous discussions he and I had regarding the evidence for and against the use of hydroxychloroquine, we concluded the potential benefit from treatment outweighed the relevant risks.” The FDA advised in April that hydroxycholoroquine and chloroquine “have not been shown to be safe and effective for treating or preventing Covid-19”.“While clinical trials are ongoing to determine the safety and effectiveness of these drugs for Covid-19, there are known side-effects of these medications that should be considered,” the FDA commissioner, Stephen Hahn, said in a statement then. The FDA has not updated that guidance. Experts warned that Trump’s claim to be taking the drug could lead to a spike in demand, potentially making it harder for vulnerable patients who need the drug to fill prescriptions. Nick Note: I have taken hydroxychloroquine in small doses under a Doctors supervision for decades whenever i was in the tropics for Malaria. I now often time take hydroxychloroquine in large doses (20 mg) for as long as 2 weeks at a time under doctors supervision when i feel i may have been espoused to the coronavirus. Sure its dangerous, sure it can kill you SO! i can tell you consulting with Doctors all over the world the consensuses is it really works as a cure. Call this fake news… but i know what i know. I URGE YOU DO NOT MESS WITH IT EXCEPT UNDER A DOCTORS SUPERVISION!

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Moderna may begin final stage vaccine trial in July

Moderna Inc. announced on Monday early-stage trials of the coronavirus vaccine produced positive results so far, adding it expects the final stage of the trials could begin in July. Commenting on the vaccine progress, Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer Tal Zaks revealed that “this interim phase 1 data, while early, demonstrate that vaccination with mRNA-1273 elicits an immune response of the magnitude caused by natural infection starting with a dose as low as 25 micrograms.” Moderna tested the vaccine on 45 males and non-pregnant females aged 18–55, who received two doses with the gap of 28 days between two injections. The company’s stocks surged 27.40% to sell for $83.84 per share in the premarket trade shortly before the start of today’s session. Nick Note: This falls into the category of their is a vaccine even if their is no vaccine