Author: BlackMask Financial

European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas addressed the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Monday, stating that Russia will continue with its provocations “as long as we allow it [to do so.]” “It cannot be that Russia ‘accidentally’ violates [European airspace] three times in two weeks. And if it was a mistake, there has been plenty of time for the Russian Federation to apologize … Instead, we see a pattern,” she commented. The EU official said that Moscow is testing the European borders, “probing our resolve.”

Wadephul: Russian jet incursion was ‘dangerous escalation’

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul stated on Monday that the “incursion” of three Russian fighter jets into Estonian airspace was a “further dangerous escalation” and a “grave violation of international law.” “The incursion came just over a week after more than 20 Russian drones had entered Polish airspace. Once again, in Estonia, Russia violated, without any provocation, the territorial integrity of one of its neighbors, and thus one of the fundamental principles of the UN [United Nations] charter,” Wadephul said during an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council (UNSC) adding that “Russia’s ongoing aggression is not only directed against Ukraine and its people; rather, in its reckless behaviour, Russia poses serious danger to regional security as well as to global peace and stability.” During the same meeting, the United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned that if it is needed, NATO will confront Russian planes “operating in NATO airspace without permission.”

NN: The world is making a serous mistake by not stopping Russian spreading aggression

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said European states are doing all they can to escalate tensions in Ukraine and to urge Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to keep fighting. “They are doing everything possible to continue the war and in every way encourage Zelensky to do so,” he said on the Rossiya 1 television channel. Peskov added that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains open to negotiating a peaceful settlement and wants to continue working with the United States on the issue.

Putin: Russia ready to respond to any threats

Russian President Vladimir Putin assured on Monday that Moscow is ready to respond to any existing or emerging threats. “This response will not be just verbal, but through the use of military-technical measures,” Putin said during a Security Council meeting, adding that Russia can rely on “the effectiveness of its deterrent forces.” Furthermore, the Russian leader emphasized that Moscow prefers to resolve any issue through diplomacy rather than through military conflict. “Russia has always believed and continues to believe that political and diplomatic methods for maintaining international peace are preferable and prioritized based on the principles of equality, indivisibility of security, and mutual consideration of interests,” he pointed out.

NN: Russia  is not playing around here. NATO IS.

United States President Donald Trump said at the American Cornerstone Institute Founder’s Dinner that Europe must stop buying Russian oil “The Europeans are buying oil from Russia, it’s not supposed to happen,” Trump said, adding that “[US Representative to NATO Matt Whitaker] won’t let it happen much longer.” Two weeks ago, the president urged the EU to cease buying Russian oil.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday said Russia must face consequences and Ukraine needs more force to end the war. “Russia must feel the consequences of what it is doing. Sufficient counteraction is needed to force them to seek peace,” Zelensky stated. He said Ukraine must rely on its army strength, its long-range strike capability and strong sanctions to pressure Moscow into talks. Zelensky claimed Ukraine recovered more than 132,000 foreign components from weapons made with parts from Europe, the United States, China and Japan, warning that unchecked Russian arms could threaten Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

Zelensky: Allies ‘wasting time,’ Russia sanctions needed

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Saturday that his country will “never surrender” amid “excessive demands” and sanctions from the West. “The West cannot stop us. They hit us in Natanz, but they are unaware that it is humans who built and will rebuild Natanz,” Pezeshkian stated in televised remarks. “Through the ‘snapback,’ they block the road, but it is the brains and the thoughts that open or build the road,” he added. The comments come after the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) rejected a resolution to extend Iran sanctions relief, effectively approving the reimposition of “snapback” sanctions on the country on September 28.

Iran to suspend cooperation with IAEA

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) said on Saturday that the country will suspend its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in response to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) rejecting a resolution to permanently lift sanctions against Tehran. “Despite the [Iranian] Foreign Ministry’s cooperation with the Agency and the proposals presented to settle the [nuclear] issue, the actions of European countries have effectively suspended the path of cooperation with the Agency,” the SNSC, which is tasked with overseeing cooperation with the IAEA, stated.The sanctions are set to come into effect on September 28 after the three European signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from 2015 activated the so-called “snapback” mechanism and the UNSC failed to support extending the sanctions relief.

 

Every day we move closer to losing oil from major producers due to embargoes and escalating war. On the list of at risk oil supplies are:

Russia: 4,000,000 BPD

Iran: 3,259,000 BPD

Venezuela : 1,000,000  BPD

Iraq:  northern routes through Syria 2,500,000 BPD

Syria: 400,000 BPD

Total amounts of oil from or through war torn countries is 11,429,000 BPD. Of course not all of that oil is a risk.  But consider this world oil demand is around 100,000,000 BPD OPEC + produces  30,000,000 BPD or 30% of world oil consumption.  1/3  of that production comes from at risk suppliers listed above. Or 10% of world consumption.

Global spare oil capacity is only 5,000,000 BPD at best . With 3,000,000 of claimed spare capacity held by Saudi Arabia. Most likely the real number is half that

Punchline:  If just hall of oil embargoes proposed and threatened  take affect  the oil lost to the market will absorb total spare oil capacity and them sum.

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United Nations Ambassador to Iran Amir Saeid Iravani (pictured) sharply rejected the Security Council’s decision on Friday to reactivate international sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear program. The measures, lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, will take effect on September 27 after nine countries opposed blocking the snapback mechanism. Calling the move “hasty, unnecessary, and unlawful,” Iravani said Iran bears no obligation to comply. He accused the United States, along with the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, of fabricating claims while shielding Israel’s attacks on Iranian facilities. “This act, with no consensus, weakens the Council, undermines diplomacy, and jeopardizes the non-proliferation regime. Iran’s nuclear program will not be destroyed by bombs, halted by sanctions, or diverted from its peaceful path. The door of diplomacy is not closed — but it will be Iran, not its adversaries, who decides with whom and on what basis to engage,” he stressed.

NN: Every day we move closer to losing oil from major producers due to sanctions and war.

Estonian airspace was violated by Russian military jets on Friday, European and NATO sources said. Three Russian military jets  violated NATO member Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes in an “unprecedentedly brazen” incursion, its government said,  The incident comes just over a week after more than 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace on the night of September 9-10, prompting NATO jets to down some of them and Western officials to say Russia was testing the alliance’s readiness and resolve. The airspace violation comes three days after Russian and Belarusian military forces ended joint military exercises, called Zapad 2025. Tallinn said on Friday the three MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace without permission and stayed there for a total of 12 minutes. “Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brazen,” said Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.

European Council President Antonio Costa condemned Russia’s violation of Estonian airspace on Friday, assuring that the European Union “stands firmly in solidarity” with Estonia. In a post on X, Costa stated that Moscow’s move “is another unacceptable provocation” and added that the EU leaders will discuss a joint response to Russia’s actions at the European Council meeting in Copenhagen on October 1.

NB: why get in a rush.  Europe just does not get it… Russia is gunning for them

The official emphasized “the urgent need to reinforce our Eastern flank, deepen European defence cooperation, and intensify pressure on Russia.”

“Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggressiveness must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure.”

The Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Estonia said it had summoned the top Russian diplomat in the country to lodge a protest and deliver a note. Estonian Defence Forces said the airspace violation occurred on Friday morning in the area of Vaindloo Island, around 100 kilometres (124 miles) from the capital Tallinn. The aircraft did not have flight plans, their transponders were not switched on and they were not in contact with air traffic control, Estonia said. “This could be a test by Russia to see how NATO responds to this type of challenge,  Godzimirski, a research professor in Russian security policy at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs,

NN: Escalation is the order of day

European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho announced on Wednesday that the commission has adopted the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. “As has been expected for a while, we can confirm that the commission has adopted a new 19th package of sanctions against Russia,” the spokesperson shared at a press briefing and added that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas will make a statement later in the day. Earlier this week, Von der Leyen announced that new sanctions on Russia will target cryptocurrencies, banks and energy, in order to increase economic pressure on Moscow.

NN: Too Little too late