Goldman Sachs: Geopolitical Risk Could Add $10…… Shell CEO Warns of ‘Huge Impact’ If Strait of Hormuz Blocked to Oil Prices

  • Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical premium of approximately $10 per barrel on Brent crude, though it suggests oil could exceed $90 if Iranian supply is disrupted.
  • The bank’s base-case scenario, which assumes no supply disruption and Brent averaging $60 per barrel, is becoming increasingly doubtful due to President Trump’s floating of the possibility of the United States joining Israel in bombing Iran.
  • Barclays warns that crude prices could surge above $100 per barrel if the Middle East conflict escalates, and Brent could reach $85 per barrel if half of Iran’s oil exports are disrupted.

Geopolitics could move Brent crude higher by around $10 per barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated, from a starting point in the mid-$70s. However, the bank admitted oil could top $90 in case of Iranian supply disruption. Goldman’s analysts pointed to the disruption of oil flows via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Yemeni Houthis’ attacks on vessels as an example of the fragility of Middle Eastern oil export security. Its base-case scenario, the bank said, remains the same, with Brent averaging $60 per barrel in the final quarter of the year in case of no supply disruption. This scenario, however, has in recent days become increasingly doubtful as President Trump floats the possibility of the United States joining Israel in bombing Iran. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told media earlier this week, causing a reaction among Republican party supporters who’d rather the U.S. stayed away from that war. “We can’t do this again,” Steven Bannon said at an event in Washington this week. “We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.” Trump has acknowledged the opposition, saying “I’m not looking to fight. But if it’s a choice between them fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.” Barclays has warned that crude could surge above $100 per barrel if the war in the Middle East heats up. The bank also said that Brent could hit $85 per barrel if half of Iran’s oil exports gets disrupted. Iran exports over 2 million barrels of crude daily, almost exclusively to China.

NN: as you know we have been predicting this war for over a year now and $100 Brent Oil

Shell CEO Warns of ‘Huge Impact’ If Strait of Hormuz Blocked

Shell Plc, one of the biggest traders of oil and natural gas, has contingency plans in case the conflict between Israel and Iran disrupts flows from the region, warning that a potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could deliver a substantial shock. “If that artery is blocked, for whatever reason, it has a huge impact on global trade,” Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said at the Japan Energy Summit & Exhibition in Tokyo. “We have plans in the eventuality that things deteriorate.” The global energy market has been transfixed by the conflict between Israel and Iran, including the possibility the US may decide to join the assault. So far, while crude has spiked due to the hostilities, there’s been no major interruption to flows of energy, although traders are on high alert. About a quarter of the world’s oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. In the past, Iran has targeted ships traversing the chokepoint, and has threatened to block the waterway. In recent days, ships’ signals have been jammed.Senior US officials are preparing for the possibility of a strike on Iran in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter, a sign that Washington is assembling the infrastructure to directly enter the conflict with Tehran. The situation is still evolving and could change, they said. “The risks of serious energy supply disruptions will rise if the Iranian leadership believes that they are facing an existential survival threat,” RBC Capital Markets LLC analysts including Helima Croft said in a note. “Direct US entry into this conflict could be a catalyst for more direct disruptive actions against tankers and critical infrastructure in the region.”

Trump said to be holding off final order, approved Iran plans

United States President Donald Trump has reportedly approved final plans for a US attack on Iran but is holding off on giving the final order in hopes that Tehran would abandon its nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing three people familiar with the events. The sources stated that while an attack was being considered, Trump is hopeful that the threat of the US joining Israel’s strikes on Iran would be enough to compel the country to accept his demands regarding its nuclear weapons program. Additionally, a senior White House official reported that the president was considering several options while keeping an eye on Israeli operations.

NN: I believe King Trump kicking  and screaming all the way will eventually authorize the bombing of Iran’s nuclear bomb making hardened facilities.

Graham thinks Trump resolute on blocking ‘Iranian nukes’

US Senator Lindsey Graham said Wednesday that President Donald Trump remains adamant about preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, following a recent conversation between the two, CNN revealed on Wednesday. “He’s very focused, very calm,” Graham told CNN’s Manu Raju. “I feel like when he says no nukes for Iran, he means it.” According to Graham, Trump believes Iran misjudged his willingness to act and now sees their nuclear ambition as a global threat that must be eliminated. “The sooner we end this threat, the better for mankind,” Graham added. Trump reportedly provided “no timetable” for potential military action, but made clear that diplomacy has run its course and future responses could be decisive.

Trump Refuses to Reveal US Plans for Iran, Says ‘Late’ for Talks

President Donald Trump declined to say whether the US plans to join Israel’s military offensive on Iran, and said Tehran had reached out about the possibility of negotiations.

“I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told reporters Wednesday at the White House when asked if he is moving closer to striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Trump said he encouraged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push forward with his strikes on Iran, but said he gave his counterpart no indication in a Tuesday call that US forces would participate in the attacks.

“I said, ‘keep going,’” Trump said when asked about his message to Netanyahu.

The US president’s comments build further uncertainty about America’s involvement in the conflict, a move that could further escalate tensions in the Middle East. Trump said the Iranian government had contacted the US about the conflict and even proposed a White House meeting to settle the matter, yet he said his patience with the Islamic Republic had “already run out.” The US president did not close the door to talks but downplayed the likelihood they would bear fruit. The president did not say who from Iran had made contact with his administration.“I said it’s very late to be talking,” Trump said. “There’s a big difference between now and a week ago.” Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s rejection of his demand for unconditional surrender, Trump said, “I say good luck.”

NN: will he or won’t he. I do not believe trump has decided yet. I pray to  GOD  HE TAKES THE BASTARD OUT AND HIS ENTIRE NCLEAR MACHINE OF DEATH.

Khamenei: Iran will not surrender….. Trump: I told Netanyahu keep going

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded to the latest threats from the United States by declaring that his country will not accept an “imposed” peace or war and will not surrender. Khamenei warned the US that a military intervention against Iran would initiate Tehran’s “forceful response” and result in “irreparable damage” for the attacker. “It isn’t wise to tell the Iranian nation to surrender,” Khamenei proclaimed. On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump publicly called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” proclaiming Khamenei would not be targeted “for now.

Trump: I told Netanyahu keep going

United States President Donald Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he speaks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “every day” and that he encouraged him to “keep going” amid ongoing Israeli strikes on Iran. At the same time, the president stated he has not indicated to Netanyahu that the US will further back Israeli military efforts against Iran. Trump also briefly commented on the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s statement that Tehran will not surrender, by wishing him “good luck.”

NN: we need to slaughter this Islamic pig

Israel said to be facing shortage of defensive interceptors…… Biden Cut The Squid Rocket Prodction

Israel is facing a shortage of operational Arrow missile defense systems, causing concern about the country’s ability to defend itself from Iran’s long-range ballistic missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing a United States official. According to the report, Washington is aware of Israel’s shortage issues and has been boosting the country’s defense capabilities with systems on the ground, at sea, and in the air. However, there are now reportedly concerns that the US might also be “burning through” missile interceptors. Meanwhile, Iranian forces continued to launch missile attacks on Israel, with the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claiming that its Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles successfully broke through Israel’s defenses.

NN: Iran’s hypersonic missiles are giving Israel hell.  Its much worse then they are reporting. 10%  are getting through and with their 2000 pound war head they are doing a lot of damage. These are not the Hamas bottle rockets with a firecracker on top. Worse conventional rockets take two interceptor rockets to take them out. These new hypersonic missiles capable of traveling at 15 times the speed of sound,  called Fattah, or “Conqueror” in Farsi are kicking the shit out of Israel defenses. They are faster, much more accurate and they pack a much bigger punch. It takes ten Arrow 3 rockets called the Squid to catch them. AN Arrow 3 missile cost has been estimated to range between $2 million to $3 million per interceptor missile. And Israel is running out. Worse Raytheon is producing all they can. When They requested funding for bigger orders and to increase production capacity. Biden and his liberal lefty wife (who ran the show) cut the budget to fund WOKE  and fagot bullshit!

,

Israel hits nuclear, missile production sites in Iran

Israeli air forces targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile production sites in overnight attacks, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in its latest update on Wednesday.”As part of the extensive effort to harm the Iranian nuclear weapons development program, a centrifuge production site in Tehran was attacked, which was intended to allow the Iranian regime to expand the scope and rate of its uranium enrichment for the purpose of developing nuclear weapons,” the military said in a post on its Telegram channel. The IDF added that it hit several weapon production sites in the Tehran area, including facilities for the production of raw materials and components for the surface-to-surface missiles.

NN: fake news! Enriched uranium poses little contamination risk. Here is a statement from the IAEA: There is no wider radiological impact. “The level of radioactivity outside the Natanz site has remained unchanged and at normal levels,” the IAEA said. “However, due to the impacts, there is radiological and chemical contamination inside the facilities in Natanz,” it added – though the levels would be manageable.

You need to worry about the radiation from Iran popping off a nuke

Israel expects US to join Iran war soon

Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and the Israeli security establishment believe that the United States will join the war in the coming days, according to a report by Axios on Tuesday. The report by journalist Barak Ravid said a likely US strike would target Iran’s underground uranium enrichment facility at Fordow. The report comes shortly after President Trump threatened the Iranian Supreme Leader, calling for an unconditional surrender.

Israel says will strike ‘significant targets’ in Tehran

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz told reporters on Tuesday that his country’s Air Force plans to strike “very significant targets, strategic targets, targets of the regime and infrastructure” in Tehran today. He noted that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will issue a n evacuation warning ahead of the attacks for those in the area. The Israeli minister also claimed that there are “more than ten nuclear targets” in Tehran that his country is “on the verge of destroying” and added that the Iranian underground nuclear enrichment facility Fordow is “an issue that will certainly be addressed.”

nn: world is at a critical junction

 

 

Iran says it struck Israel’s Mossad, military intel center

 

Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s (IRGC) Aerospace Force announced on Tuesday that it struck Israel’s Military Intelligence (Aman) and Israel’s Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (Mossad) with air-to-air missiles, according to the Iranian state news agency Irna. “By the grace of God Almighty, in the early hours of today, Tuesday, June 17, the fighters of the IRGC Aerospace Force, in an impact-oriented operation, despite the existence of highly advanced defense systems, hit the military intelligence center of the Zionist regime’s army called Aman and the center for planning terror operations and evils of the Zionist regime (Mossad) in Tel Aviv, and this center is currently burning,” the Iranian military reportedly said. The announcement follows the warning by Iran’s Army Ground Forces Commander Kioumars Heydari that his country will intensify the attacks on Israel in the coming hours.

NNL Iran is getting its licks in