Author: BlackMask Financial

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World Braces for Iran’s Response After US Strikes Signal New Era

The unprecedented US airstrikes on Iran have set traders and governments worldwide on edge, as the Islamic Republic warns of retaliation and Israel shows no sign of letting up in its assault. President Donald Trump’s decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs, Washington’s first direct military action against Iran after decades of hostility, has pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and raised geopolitical risk in a world economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade war. Oil rose almost 6% when markets opened Monday morning in Asia, with analysts warning $100 a barrel is in sight depending on Iran’s further response to the conflict, which began June 13 with a surprise attack by Israel. The US dollar pushed higher, stock futures fell and Bitcoin slid below $100,000 for the first time since early May. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said the country reserves all options to respond. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which answers to the Iran’s supreme leader, signaled US military bases in the region could be targeted. Trump has vowed to meet any retaliation with force “far greater” than the US strikes on the nuclear sites. He also floated the possibility of regime change in Iran, although US and Israeli officials Sunday stressed that isn’t their aim. It’s still unclear how successful the US strikes were in eliminating Iran’s most heavily protected enrichment site at Fordow. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which officially has the task of monitoring Iran’s program, told the UN Security Council on Sunday that no one yet knows the condition of the facility, nor the location of Iran’s more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.

Any move by Tehran to harass traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global crude and natural gas, has raised the specter of a spike in energy prices at a fragile moment for the global economy.

“An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,” Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote in a report.

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Goldman Sachs: Geopolitical Risk Could Add $10 to Oil Prices

  • Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical premium of approximately $10 per barrel on Brent crude, though it suggests oil could exceed $90 if Iranian supply is disrupted.
  • The bank’s base-case scenario, which assumes no supply disruption and Brent averaging $60 per barrel, is becoming increasingly doubtful due to President Trump’s floating of the possibility of the United States joining Israel in bombing Iran.
  • Barclays warns that crude prices could surge above $100 per barrel if the Middle East conflict escalates, and Brent could reach $85 per barrel if half of Iran’s oil exports are disrupted.

Geopolitics could move Brent crude higher by around $10 per barrel, Goldman Sachs has estimated, from a starting point in the mid-$70s. However, the bank admitted oil could top $90 in case of Iranian supply disruption. Goldman’s analysts pointed to the disruption of oil flows via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by the Yemeni Houthis’ attacks on vessels as an example of the fragility of Middle Eastern oil export security. Its base-case scenario, the bank said, remains the same, with Brent averaging $60 per barrel in the final quarter of the year in case of no supply disruption. This scenario, however, has in recent days become increasingly doubtful as President Trump floats the possibility of the United States joining Israel in bombing Iran. “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” Trump told media earlier this week, causing a reaction among Republican party supporters who’d rather the U.S. stayed away from that war. “We can’t do this again,” Steven Bannon said at an event in Washington this week. “We’ll tear the country apart. We can’t have another Iraq.” Trump has acknowledged the opposition, saying “I’m not looking to fight. But if it’s a choice between them fighting or having a nuclear weapon, you have to do what you have to do.”

Barclays has warned that crude could surge above $100 per barrel if the war in the Middle East heats up. The bank also said that Brent could hit $85 per barrel if half of Iran’s oil exports gets disrupted. Iran exports over 2 million barrels of crude daily, almost exclusively to China.

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Iran’s parliament agrees to close Hormuz strait for traffic

Member of the Iranian Parliament Esmaeil Kowsari told the press on Sunday that the lawmakers voted in favor of closing the Strait of Hormuz for traffic in response to the United States and Israel’s recent attacks on the country’s territory. In order to become official, the decision must be approved by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The strait is considered a significant route for oil transport. Previously, US officials such as Vice President JD Vance and State Secretary Marco Rubio warned Iran against the closing of Hormuz, with the latter describing it as an “economic suicide.”Meanwhile, local media reported that the Majlis also voted in favor of resuming the country’s nuclear program.

NN: please see BlackMask Market Update titled: choke point

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Iran Choses WAR

United States President Donald Trump stated that after the US strike on Iran’s three key nuclear sites, there would “either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we’ve witnessed for the last eight days.” “Remember, there are many targets left, tonight’s was the most difficult of them all by far and perhaps the most lethal,” Trump said, warning that “if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill.” The president added that most of the other targets can be taken out in “a matter of minutes” and that “there is no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight.”

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Trump says US bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites

United States President Donald Trump stated that the US conducted a bombing of the Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear sites in Iran. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that the US has “completed our very successful attack on the three nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” adding that all of the planes were “now outside of Iran airspace” and “safely on their way home.” The president congratulated the American troops who participated in the strike and announced that “now is the time for peace.”

NN: The world has changed forever. The savages are on the run. death to the savages.  death to iran. America  just became great  again. Trump said god we love you!
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Trump: Iran doesn’t need nuclear energy, has oil

United States President Donald Trump questioned Iran’s insistence on nuclear energy on Friday, arguing the country’s vast oil reserves make such programs unnecessary. Talking to the press, the president also claimed Tehran was “weeks or months away” from a nuclear weapon before the latest escalation. He reiterated that the US, not Europe, is the actual interlocutor Iran wants to engage with, saying, “Iran wants to speak to us, not to Europe.” The comments come as Israel and Iran intensify their military campaign while European diplomats try to mediate the crisis.

NN: They are not building  the bomb and certainly not ten of them.. They are making bomb grade uranium by the ton for fun.
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Araghchi: Iran rejected US request for negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Friday that his government rejected a request from the United States to engage in negotiations. He added that “there is no longer any need for proof” that the US is already involved in Israel’s strikes against Iran, citing the Trump administration’s rhetoric. Araghchi added that Iran’s talks with foreign ministers from the United Kingdom, France and Germany today will focus on the issues regarding Iran’s nuclear program and not its missile capabilities. “We are engaged in legitimate self-defense, and this defense will not stop,” he stressed.

NN: Why has Trump started 2 weeks of negotiations?

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Oil dips 2.5% as Trump delays decision on Iran involvement

Crude oil prices fell by over 2.5% on Friday after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that United States President Donald Trump will decide within the next two weeks on whether Washington will be more directly involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran, despite reports that the US is already planning to attack Tehran sooner than that. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August’s settlements dropped by 2.72% at 3:18 am ET and went for $73.54 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for the same month’s deliveries declined by 2.66% at 3:19 am ET, going for $76.72 per barrel. Sure glad your stops did their job….. Further recos coming.

NN: So sad. I was afraid Trump would punk out After Bannon the Jew haters visit. After 20 years of useless negotiations and lies from Iran it is amazing that once again the are let off the hook with endless negotiations. How stupid the world is. They accept the bullshit that they are enriching uranium in a super hardened deep underground secret facility to 60%  bomb grade.  But its for electrical generation which only requires 3.5% enrichment, We know that they have hidden enriched  uranium  at least 400 kilos enough for ten nuclear bombs. And have developed nuclear bomb trigger technology. But here is the really good part. In 20 years of their nuclear development for electricity program they have  built 5 reactors  completed 4 which were operating before they got struck with Jew Bastard lightning in the past week. And get this they have never generated any electricity. They did not even wire the reactors to the grid. And the world is negotiating with them so they can carry on. And the really sad part Trump is buying into this bullshit. Leaving the above mentioned Jew bastards to take the hits and save the world on their own. This is some sick shit!

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Israel said to expect US decision on Iran within 48h……White House: Trump still open to diplomacy with Iran

The Israeli government expects a decision on whether the United States will join the current conflict between Israel and Iran in the next 24-48 hours, according to the Times of Israel. “The expectation is that they join, but no one is pushing them … They have to make their own decision,” an Israeli official told the media outlet and added that the decision will be made in the next day or two. Just yesterday, the Wall Street Journal reported that US President Donald Trump has supposedly approved plans for an attack on Iran, but still hasn’t given the final order. The official also disclosed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have a coordinated stance regarding threats to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, saying that “Katz always makes his statements according to what Netanyahu asks him to do. He’s not doing it on his own.”

White House: Trump still open to diplomacy with Iran

United States President Donald Trump continues to believe that diplomacy remains an option with Iran, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday. Speaking at her regular press briefing, the White House press secretary added that ” the president is being very clear” and that “he believes diplomacy is still an option.” Leavitt confirmed that correspondence with Iran has continued.

Trump to decide on Iran involvement within 2 weeks
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Netanyahu on targeting Khamenei: No one is safe

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that “no one is safe” in Iran when asked whether his government intends to target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. “We have set two goals: eliminating the nuclear threat and eliminating the ballistic threat,” he repeated. “It is possible that in the course of this operation, the regime will be undermined, but in the end, the liberation of Iran depends on the Iranian people.” Netanyahu said Israel will support any decision by the United States regarding strikes on Iran. “He will do what is best for America, and I will do what is best for Israel,” Netanyahu said of US President Donald Trump. He added that the US is already participating in protecting the Israeli airspace.