Author: BlackCrypto Financial

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Equity fund flows show retail investors’ fear of missing out amid record-setting rally

U.S. equity funds saw retail inflows for the second time in two months in latest week

As U.S. stocks enjoy a year-end rally that has pushed the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.06%  year-to-date gains above 29%, there are signs that individual investors are finally getting in on the action, and have been convinced equities are a good bet, as recession fears fade and evidence of a strong consumer and a resilient U.S. economy mount. Retail investors posted a positive inflow to equity funds during the week ended Dec. 26, only the third since late in the second quarter of 2017, according to data from EPFR. The move came amid apparent profit taking on the part of institutional investors who posted their largest weekly outflows from U.S. equity funds in more than a year, one week after posting the largest inflow in three months. “While the latest outflows from US Equity Funds were eye-catchingly large, the fact this group recorded its second retail inflow in the past two months is more significant,” given the consistent retail outflows seen in recent quarters, according to Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR Global.

EPFR

”There’s still a lot of money on the sidelines,” Jeffrey Kravetz, regional investment director at U.S. Bank Private Client Reserve told MarketWatch. “Retail investors have been cautious this year,” he said, adding that last December’s sharp downturn drove this caution. “The fund flows you’re seeing is that they’re probably looking at their portfolios and statements and realizing that it’s been a good year and not wanting to miss out. Nick Note:The stupid money has arrived in mass. The institutional and individual traders are near to all in. The vast majority of fund managers have never seen a bear market never mind a 10% correction. When it comes not IF panic will reign supreme. And for the record their AI, High Frequency and momentum trading systems will have a short circuit.

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Oil prices rise to 3-month peak as EIA report shows bigger-than-expected crude drop

Oil prices tilted higher on Friday, trading around a three-month peak, after a report showed a bigger-than-expected decline in weekly U.S. stores of crude and its byproducts. The Energy Information Administration showed that U.S. crude supplies fell by 5.467 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 20. Analysts polled by S&P Global Platts had forecast a decrease of 3 million barrels, although the less closely followed American Petroleum Institute report showed a 7.9 million-barrel tumble late Tuesday, according to sources. EIA data also showed supply increases of 1.963 million barrels for gasoline stocks and a decline of roughly 152,000 barrels for distillates, government data showed. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery US:CLF20, the U.S. benchmark grade, rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, at $61.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, around its highest price since Sept. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data. February Brent crude BRNG20, +0.34%, meanwhile, added 30 cents, or 0.4%, at $68.19 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 1.1% gain in the prior session. That contract expires on Dec. 30. The March contract BRNH20, +0.18%, which is currently the most active, was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $66.92. The international benchmark on Thursday finished at a roughly three-month high. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group, said that the EIA inventory data reflect refiners, who process crude, ramping up activity and helping to take down supplies. “It looks like refiners are back…” Flynn told MarketWatch. “So very supportive!” All that said, market participants also were digesting a report signaling that the group known as OPEC+, including members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, may consider ending a pact to reduce global production next year.

“As far as the production cuts are concerned, I repeat once again, this is not an indefinite process. A decision on the exit should be gradually taken in order to keep up market share and so that our companies would be able to provide and implement their future projects,” said Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, according to Reuters on Friday, citing Russia broadcaster Rossiya 24 TV. The report comes days after Novak was quoted as saying that OPEC+ may consider easing output  Bloomberg News, citing a report from JBC Energy, is forecasting that oil production outside of OPEC and the U.S. next year is set to rise by the most in about 15 years. For the week, WTI has gained 2.1%, while Brent is poised for a 2.7% weekly gain, based on last Friday’s settlement of the most-active contract. Nick Note: I repeat my firm belief that massive increase in oil production are coming… As everyone and their dog is in a global scramble fr CASH!

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EIA Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 20, 2019

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 441.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.0 million barrels per day during the week ending December 20, 2019, which was 419,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.8 million barrels per day last week, up by 230,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 11.5% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 594,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 248,000 barrels per day.
Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week and
are about 5% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and
blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.6 million barrels last week and are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year. Total
commercial petroleum inventories decreased last
week by 10.2 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four -week period averaged 20.6 million barrels per day, down by 3.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.3% from the
same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels per day more than the past four weeks, down by 11.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 6.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Libya makes formal request for Turkish military support: official

TRIPOLI (Reuters) – Libya’s internationally recognized government has formally requested from Turkey “air, ground and sea” military support to fend off an offensive of eastern forces to take the capital Tripoli, a Tripoli official said on Thursday. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said earlier his country will send troops to Libya at the request of Tripoli as soon as next month. Nick Note: As you know we have been following this under reported story for quite some time. America rushes out and Russia and Russia’s new BFF Turkey rushes in. I hope the markets get spooked abut Libyan oil not coming to market. Any disruptions will be short and sweet. By sweet i mean a great selling opportunity. Notice how nations without oil just do not seem to get the”help” they need….

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Guyana to sell first three cargoes of Liza crude to Shell on Dated Brent basis

Guyana’s share of Liza crude to be sold to Shell’s unit First lifting in February, all cargoes to be loaded by mid-2020

https://youtu.be/R11KZAP7QZU

Houston — Guyana’s government will sell the first three cargoes of the new Liza crude produced offshore Guyana to a trading arm of Shell on a Dated Brent basis, the country’s Department of Energy said Tuesday. Guyana did not reveal the price and volume for the cargoes, which represent the country’s share of the production. However, it said the direct sale was to Shell Western Supply and Trading and the first lift is expected to take place in February, with the loading of the three cargoes completed by mid-2020. “The sale has been premised on a Dated Brent price basis which reflects the tradable, spot market value of crude oil,” the government said in a statement. The decision to sell the crude will provide competitive pricing that will limit the Guyanese government’s exposure to market uncertainty, according to the statement. Shell emerged the winner to buy the government’s first cargoes and was selected from a group of other international oil companies. The Guyanese government is planning a second phase for selling its crude by launching an open market search for a marketing agent that will market the country’s crude entitlements from the Liza 1 field on a term basis. It has been an eventful week regarding Guyana’s offshore crude oil. An ExxonMobil-led group announced late last week that production of Liza crude had begun ahead of schedule. China’s CNOOC and Hess are also partners in the Stabroek consortium. Exxon and its partners on Monday said that they made another oil discovery called Mako, located offshore Guyana, adding to anticipated Liza production. Liza Phase 1 is producing from the Destiny floating, production, storage and offloading facility and will peak at 120,000 b/d of oil over the next several months. Liza Phase 2, which will use the FPSO Unity, was sanctioned this year and is expected to produce up to 220,000 b/d when it comes online in mid-2022. It’s a monumental development for the small South American country, which before now has seen no oil and gas production and has no local refineries. Liza crude is considered medium sweet with a typical gravity of 32.1 API and sulfur content of 0.51%. Nick Note: a hundred thousand here, a hundred thousand thousand their and soon you have another 340,000 BPD of crude hitting the market.  OPEC will give up the impossible. The only way to do this is get prices low enough to knock the high cost heavily in debt producers out of the market. And you do that by getting the price up and sucking them in… then you bankrupt them by taking the market a LOT lower.

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Oil prices tick higher after U.S. report shows 7.9 million drop in crude inventories

 

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher on Thursday after the Christmas holiday, as a weekly inventory report indicated a bigger-than-expected decline in stockpiles for oil. American Petroleum Institute reported late Tuesday that U.S. crude supplies fell by 7.9 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 20, according to sources. That was more than analysts’ consensus expectations for a draw of draw of 1.83 million barrels, according to Reuters. The weekly inventory report also showed a 2.2 million barrel decline in key U.S. oil delivery hub Cushing, Okla. The API data came after that report showed a major buildup in stockpiles last week and the current report could provide a lift for crude prices which have been steadily climbing lately, wrote Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group. “It appears that the API wanted to make up for the lost time and this reflects growing global oil demand,” he wrote in a Thursday research report. West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery US:CLF20, the U.S. benchmark grade, edged up 6 cents, or 0.1%, at $61.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising 1% on Tuesday. February Brent crude BRNG20, +0.27%  picked tacked on 4 cents, or less than 0.1%, to reach $66.21 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, following a 1.2% gain in the prior session. The international benchmark is at three months highs. Overall trading on Thursday is expected to remain subdued, with a number of markets remaining closed for the holidays. The Christmas holiday period has delayed the release of U.S. government data from the Energy Information Administration on crude stocks and those for natural gas, which will both be released on Friday. Trading for crude and its byproducts has been mostly influenced by positive signs from China and the U.S. on the trade front. Chinese officials on Wednesday confirmed that they were close to signing a phase one trade deal, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said he and China’s President Xi Jinping would have a signing ceremony for the partial trade pact. The 18 month old trade war between the world’s two largest economies has hit global economic growth and demand for oil, weighing on crude prices for most of the year.

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Saudi Arabia, Kuwait agree to resume oil output at shared fields

CAIRO (Bloomberg) – Saudi Arabia and Kuwait agreed to resume oil production in a shared border region more than four years after halting output.

The agreement allows “the resumption of oil production from the joint fields,” the Saudi energy ministry said on Twitter. The oil fields at the so-called neutral zone can produce as much as 500,000 bpd — more than each of OPEC’s three smallest members pumped last month.

A resumption is unlikely to add oil to the market because Saudi Arabia and Kuwait both adhere to production limits that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries extended into March. Even so, the agreement to re-start the fields could weigh on market sentiments amid concerns about faltering growth in world demand and rising supply from the U.S. and other producers. The neutral zone, spanning more then 5,700 square kilometers (2,200 square miles), was created by a 1922 treaty between Kuwait and the fledgling Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. In the 1970s, the two Gulf Arab monarchies agreed to divide the area and incorporate each half into their respective territory while still sharing and jointly managing the zone’s petroleum wealth. The region contains two main oil fields: the onshore Wafra and offshore Khafji. The area hasn’t produced anything since 2015, when Khafji was shut down after a spat between the neighbors. Wafra stopped pumping in 2014. The disagreement began over the Wafra field, which Chevron Corp. operates. Saudi Arabia extended the original 60-year concession of the field, giving the U.S. company rights there until 2039. Kuwait was furious over the announcement and claims Riyadh never consulted it about the extension.

Chevron, through its subsidiary Saudi Arabian Chevron Inc., remains committed to the neutral zone and is ensuring that production can resume whenever a decision is taken, Sally Jones, a company spokeswoman, said on Sunday.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have held a number of private meetings since 2015, at one point coming close to signing an agreement before pulling back at the last minute over wording in the final documents regarding contentious sovereignty issues. They entered a fresh phase of talks earlier this year. The fields are particularly important because U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have tightened the supply of heavy, high-sulfur crude — precisely the kind of oil that the neutral zone produces. U.S. diplomats had been pressing both sides to reach an agreement. Nick Note: Let me see if i can scratch my ass and figure it out. They came to an agreement to open up 500,000 BPD in production. Chevron has a hard on to produce… BUT they would have you believe they will NOT be producing oil.So why go through all this to leave the fields closed… YEA RIGHT>>>>>>>>Pass my my stupid pills

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Iran militias revive Islamic State oil trade into Syria from Iraq: sources

Militias also control some Syrian oil fields

Illicit oil sales between 4,000 b/d and 10,000 b/d

Trade highlights Iran’s entanglement in Iraq

London — Iranian proxy militias are thought to be smuggling crude oil from western Iraq to Syria, picking up a lucrative business left behind by the Islamic State, according to witnesses and people with knowledgeof the illicit trade. The groups, allegedly linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), may have gained access to a handful of oil fields and refineries in Iraq and Syria, using the fuel and proceeds from sales tothe local population to fund their activities, the sources said.

“Every week there are tankers entering from Iraq loaded with oil — between 30-40,” said one source who lives along the main supply road in Syria and spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “They come every week at night to empty their cargo, and in the day, are empty on the way back to Iraq.”

The amount of oil involved is as high as 10,000 b/d, though some sources involved in the transactions say it averages closer to 4,000 to 5,000 b/d. A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Assem Jihad, a spokesman for Iraq’s Oil Ministry, said: “The government and the ministry are working to prevent oil smuggling from all of Iraq’s cities.” However, Ali Farhan Hamid, the governor of Iraq’s far western Anbar province, where much of the alleged oil transit is occurring, denied any Iranian militia involvement in the province’s affairs.”There is no presence for the Iranians in Anbar,” he told Platts through a translator last week, when he was in London to drum up investment in the rebuilding province, particularly in its oil and gas fields. “We have two American [military bases] in Anbar, so there cannot be any penetration by the Iranians. It is totally under control.” But the US government is aware of the smuggling operation, according to an official from US President Donald Trump’s administration, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The US Central Command — which oversees the American military presence in the Middle East — and spokesmen for the US Defense, State and Treasury departments all declined to comment. Sources on the ground told Platts that the Iranian-backed militias are filling a void left by the Islamic State, which in 2014 and 2015 controlled some 50,000 to 80,000 b/d of oil production in western Iraq and eastern Syria. At its height, the group was earning up to $40 million to $50 million a month from its oil operations. Sources in Anbar now describe Iranian-backed militia tanker convoys taking the crude from Iraq to Syrian regime-controlled refineries in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, and also selling crude to Syria’s Baniyas refinery on the Mediterranean coast. Refined products are supplied to the militias, as well as sold to local civilians. Several residents of Deir ez-Zor told Platts the fuel on offer ranges in price from $63/b for diesel and $104/b for gasoline in areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Defense Forces and up to $125/b for diesel and $167/b for gasoline in areas controlled by the Syrian regime and Iranian proxies. According to sources in the region, the same militias also control at least three oil fields in Syria: the Al-Tayem field, which can produce between 2,000 to 4,000 b/d; the Ward field, which also produces 2,000 to 4,000 b/d; and the Al-Husaynan field, which pumps 2,000 b/d. Analysts who closely watch the IRGC say that Iranian proxies maintain an extensive weapons smuggling system that could be used to facilitate oil trade to help fund their operations. The militias are expected to be self-financing operations for the IRGC, but many of them, particularly in Syria, struggle with revenue generation, said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in military and security affairs. “Iran wants to tie Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon into one sanctions-evasion and economic/energy.  Nick Note: Remember the Saudi’s and Iranians have cut a deal. We don’t screw with your oil and you wont screw with ours… The US is no longer a factor in the game.. Since Trump turned tail and ran. Its Russia’s oil market to rule. And they make money even at $40 Brent. Its pretty easy to see how this is going to play out.

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Oil steadies as Russia touts easing OPEC+ output

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices were little changed on Monday as Russia said an OPEC-led producer group may consider easing output cuts next year, offsetting support from some investor optimism that an initial U.S.-China trade deal would be signed soon. Brent crude LCOc1 settled up 25 cents, or 0.4%, at $66.39 after a day of thin trading ahead of the Christmas holiday. West Texas Intermediate CLc1 ended the session up 8 cents, or 0.1%, at $60.52 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other top producing nations led by Russia agreed this month to extend and deepen output cuts in the first quarter of 2020. However, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that the group, known as OPEC+, may consider easing the output restrictions at its meeting in March. “We can consider any options, including gradual easing of quotas, including continuation of the deal,” Novak told Russia’s RBC TV in an interview recorded last week, adding that Russia’s oil output was set to hit a record high this year. Non-OPEC global supply is expected to rise next year due to higher output from countries including the United States, Brazil, Norway and Guyana, which became an oil producer last week. Another source of more oil could emerge in the coming months after Kuwait indicated that a longstanding dispute over the “Neutral Zone” on its border with Saudi Arabia will be resolved by the end of 2019. Production at two large oil fields in the Neutral Zone was halted more than three years ago, cutting output by some 500,000 barrels per day. “Oil prices remained soft after Friday’s drop that stemmed from the Saudi Arabia and Kuwait deal to resume production along their border.  Oil prices have risen since the United States and China agreed on a so-called Phase 1 trade deal earlier this month following months of tit-for-tat negotiations that unsettled markets. President Donald Trump said on Saturday the United States and China would “very shortly” sign the pact. Under the pact, the United States is expected to agree to reduce some tariffs in return for a big increase in purchases of U.S. agricultural products by Chinese importers. Data showing that U.S. energy companies added the most oil rigs last week since February 2018, primarily in the Permian shale basin, also put pressure on prices. Nick Note: You can add 500,000 BPD of new oil to the market… They WILL FOR SURE bring the oil to market despite the bullshit spin!

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Pound drops over 0.50% on Brexit

Chart of the Pound From the Election till today. You remember where i had you double your shorts right near the top.

The British pound traded lower on Monday in the aftermath of the Withdrawal Agreement vote which saw MPs approve Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan for the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union. The planned withdrawal may put in danger England’s union with Scotland, which previously voted to remain in the bloc. The United Kingdom Parliament voted in favor of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s European Union Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) at its second reading as 358 MPs backed the bill, while 234 lawmakers opposed it.

The latest Brexit bill was published on Thursday and, unlike earlier versions, it rules out any potential extension of the transition period beyond December 2020.

The WAB will now move to the committee stage, followed by the so-called report stage and will then be brought to the Commons for a third reading and a final vote before it is handed over to the House of Lords. The bill will have to be passed into law by the UK before January 29 in order to allow the EU to ratify the Brexit agreement before Britain’s deadline to exit the bloc on January 31. The sterling was down 0.62% against the euro at 8:06 am ET to sell for 1.16678. A minute later, the pound fell 0.65% to change hands for $1.29206. Nick Note: About the dumbest shit i have ever seen. The WORST negotiation ever but the dumbest negotiators….. Talk about giving away the keys to the kingdom… at least what little their is left of it!. For the record. I believe Scotland will be out of the English Commonwealth way before England untangles itself and gets out of the German clutches of  the European Union…..