Bitcoin’s recent weekly close below the 50-week moving average is a historically bearish late-cycle signal, prompting a 60%–70% probability that the cycle top is already in. A quick reclaim of ~$103,000 would reset the odds back to even, but a second weekly close below the 50-week MA would point strongly toward a confirmed top. If the top is indeed behind us, Bitcoin likely heads lower before eventually rallying to the 200-day moving average, a move that would set a lower high and reinforce the start of a broader downtrend. If the cycle is not over, however, the market should show a meaningful bounce within days.