An oil slick was detected off Iran’s Kharg Island, a central hub for the country’s crude exports, The New York Times reported, citing satellite images. The alleged spill that caused the slick took place on the island’s western side and was estimated by Orbital EOS to cover more than 52 square kilometres, with over 3,000 barrels of oil said to have leaked into the water. The site of the incident lies north of the Strait of Hormuz.
Physical Oil Market Does Not REFLECT the under priced paper market
Rystad Energy said reports of a U.S.-Iran peace deal are gaining credibility, but warned that, even if a deal is made, “the consequences for physical oil markets will be slower and more conditional than futures prices are currently pricing in”. Rystad Energy Chief Oil Analyst Paola Rodriguez-Masiu, who is based in the Netherlands, stated in the update that a deal announcement “would move futures further immediately”, highlighting that “even the potential of a deal is already triggering a decline in oil prices”. Rodriguez-Masiu added, however, that the physical market “does not run on political timelines”. “Even under an optimistic scenario involving a 30-day phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, meaningful volume recovery would happen in June at the earliest, with processing port arrivals lagging by an additional four to six weeks after that,” the analyst warned. “Transit insurance markets need to reprice, vessel operators need verified and sustained access, and commercial confidence cannot be rebuilt overnight,” Rodriguez-Masiu said.
“The six to eight week lag between credible access conditions and real flow normalization is not a conservative estimate, it is a structural feature of how shipping markets work. Global markets should not mistake a ceasefire headline for a supply headline,” the analyst went on to state.
Rystad pointed out in its update that its prior estimate of six to eight weeks “between a credible access condition and meaningful volume recovery remains intact”. “Physical flows back to 80-90 percent of pre-disruption levels are a July story. Processing port arrivals lag by an additional four to six weeks,” it added. Rystad went on to state that several signals distinguish today’s situation from prior episodes where U.S. proposals have been floated and failed to materialize. The U.S. has made “a tangible operational concession”, the update outlined, noting that U.S. President Donald Trump has paused U.S. efforts to escort commercial vessels through the Strait. One more signal, according to the update, is that the IRGC is silent. “Unlike every previous juncture where U.S. proposals have been floated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has not commented,” the update stated.
Fitch Group In a BMI report early Thursday, BMI analysts revealed that they are keeping their forecast for front-month Brent crude oil futures unchanged at an annual average of $78 per barrel for 2026. “The forecast aligns with our Country Risk team’s core ‘Extension’ scenario, which sees an early May resolution to the war, sparking a sharp initial sell-off in oil, followed by a more gradual normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and production upstream,” the analysts said in the report.
“That said, there is a significant risk that we soon shift to a longer extension scenario, in which the war drags on and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz continues for an additional four to six weeks, into mid to late June,” they added.
Under this scenario, the analysts said they would direct their forecast users to “shift from Brent futures (a financial contract) to Dated Brent (a physical contract) as their primary crude pricing benchmark”, noting that they believe the latter is “more reflective of conditions in the underlying market for oil”. The analysts also noted that, under this scenario, they would raise their 2026 annual average forecast for Dated Brent to $90 per barrel, “reflecting a larger cumulative loss of supply, increased damage to energy infrastructure, and longer post-conflict recovery horizon”.
Kudotrade In a market analysis, Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship Management highlighted that oil was extending a decline “amid de-escalation hopes”. “Oil prices fell for a second consecutive session on Wednesday as markets reacted to growing expectations that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran could eventually lead to a broader easing of tensions in the Middle East,” Chrysikos said in that analysis. “Reassuring signals from Washington helped improve sentiment. At the same time, reports that an agreement between the two countries could be reached soon to end the gridlock and reopen the Strait of Hormuz raised hopes that supply currently trapped in the Gulf could return to global markets,” he added.
Chrysikos went on to warn in that report, however, that “constraints on maritime flows remain in place, leaving the physical market in a state of tightness”.
“In addition, any normalization is likely to be gradual,” he said. “Looking ahead, oil markets are likely to remain highly exposed to renewed volatility in the case of a setback, while market participants could remain cautious ahead of any new developments,” he cautioned. “While optimism around an agreement could maintain downward pressure on prices in the near term, failure to reach an agreement or renewed tensions could quickly reverse the recent decline,” Chrysikos went on to state.
NN: I am betting on failure. This stinks like shit from A ti Z.
US Waits on Iran’s Peace Deal Response as Israel Strikes Lebanon
The US is waiting on Iran to respond to its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end a war that’s killed thousands of people, with tensions still high in both the Persian Gulf and in Lebanon. Iran’s leaders are yet to indicate whether they’ll accept the terms of the deal, though they’ve previously shown little sign of yielding on their nuclear program and accepting a moratorium on enriching uranium, which the US is calling for. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian recently met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei for nearly two and a half hours, the state-owned Mizan news agency reported Thursday, without saying what the talks were about or when they were held. Iran is expected to send a response via Pakistan, acting as a mediator, in the next two days, a person familiar with the matter said on Wednesday, asking not to be identified discussing sensitive information. Oil has declined sharply since news of the US offer emerged on Wednesday, signalling some traders are optimistic a deal could be reached. Washington has relayed a one-page memo to the Islamic Republic that could reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade of Iranian ports, according to the person familiar with the matter. That would set the stage for a month of talks aimed at securing a final agreement to bring the 10-week conflict to a close. Should the negotiation get to that stage, the sides will discuss Iran’s nuclear activities. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said the objective of the war is to prevent Tehran having a nuclear weapon, something Iran has always denied. Trump said Wednesday the US is “going to get” the Islamic Republic’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of the agreement, though there’s been no indication Tehran is willing to make that concession.
The US will start a broader and more intense bombing campaign if Iran rejects the initial 14-point peace plan, Trump said earlier in a social media post, though he’s repeatedly walked back on threats to escalate the conflict. He told PBS News Hour he believes there’s “a very good chance” of a deal, possibly before his scheduled summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing next week.
Iran’s state-affiliated news agency ISNA said reports on elements of the proposal amount to “media speculation and atmosphere-building,” adding that nuclear enrichment is not part of the current discussions.
Khamenei succeeded his father, Ali, who was killed by an Israeli strike on the first day of the war. He hasn’t been seen in public since. Last week, in a statement, he said Iran would not give concessions on its nuclear program, describing it as a “national asset” that Iranians would protect at all cost. Other outstanding issues include limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for allied militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah., Those are a priority for Israel, whose officials struck a cautious tone on the latest US push to wind down the campaign against Iran. Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon told Army Radio on Thursday that “we need to wait and not come out with declarations and headlines” about a potential deal. Reopening Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war brought traffic to a standstill, is a key objective for Trump.
NN: I smell BULLSHIT!!!
Saudi TV: Hormuz transit breakthrough within hours
A “breakthrough” to restart movement for stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz is “expected in the coming hours,” Saudi Arabia’s state-owned and operated Al-Hadath television channel reported on Thursday. “A breakthrough regarding the ships stranded in the Strait is expected in the coming hours,” the outlet predicted. “Agreements have reportedly been reached regarding easing the blockade in exchange for a gradual reopening of the Strait.” The chokepoint is vital for Gulf energy exports, including from Saudi Arabia, which was also targeted during the recent Iran conflict. The strait has been largely closed since February, blocking roughly 25% of global seaborne oil and forcing costly route changes.
NN: A lot of hype. I am not buying into this. Forty years of history tells me this is just another stall tactic by the Iranians
CENTCOM: USS Bush enforces Iran blockade
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on Wednesday that the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) is fully enforcing the US naval blockade against Iran. The carrier had been part of US President Donald Trump’s Project Freedom before he announced the operation would be “paused for a short period of time.” Up to now, the US has directed 52 commercial vessels to turn around or return to port, according to CENTCOM.
Trump: Too soon to talk about signing Iran deal
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday pushed back against reports that a peace agreement with Tehran may be getting close. When asked if a fresh round of negotiations with Pakistan was on the horizon, requiring media presence at the site, the American leader replied, “I don’t think so” to the New York Post. “I think we’ll do it – it’s too far,” he added, continuing with no, it’s too much.”
Meanwhile, Pakistani sources told Al-Arabiya that the two sides are closer to embarking on a negotiation process that “may take months.”
Trump’s comments come after he said yesterday that Project Freedom was paused to allow for the deal to be reached. However, the US president warned earlier today that Washington will continue to “bomb” the Middle Eastern country if Iran does not accept the terms of the already “agreed” terms.
NN: I would say that the market thinking their is a peace deal have gotten carried away.
US Boosts Efforts to End Iran War as Trump Suspends Hormuz Plan
The US believes it’s close to an agreement with Iran to end the near 10-week war, Axios reported, as China added its voice to global diplomatic pressure to wrap up the conflict. Washington and Tehran are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, Axios said Wednesday, citing two US officials and two other sources it didn’t identify. Nothing has been agreed yet, the news agency added, and the US expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours.
Iran hasn’t commented on any progress toward a deal.
Oil fell on the report, with Brent dropping 5.6% to below $104 a barrel, a two-week low on a closing basis. Global government bonds extended gains.News of the potential breakthrough came after US President Donald Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships though the Strait of Hormuz, after a single day of operations resulted in clashes with the Islamic Republic. That forced Washington to insist the a fragile ceasefire remains in place, and Beijing used a rare public comment on the conflict to warn against a return to fighting. “Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday. “Great progress has been made toward a complete and final agreement with representatives of Iran.” Trump has repeatedly said significant progress has been made in negotiations with Iran to end the war, which began when the US and Israel started bombing the Islamic Republic in February. But disagreements remain over key issues such as the fate of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flowed before the war brought traffic to a standstill. The US is also demanding an end to Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program, a central part of a set of demands that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has called unrealistic. Trump’s challenge is to end an increasingly unpopular war while breaking Iran’s control of the strait, an objective he needs to achieve to lower energy costs. US gasoline prices topped $4.50 a gallon on Wednesday for the first time since July 2022, extending a climb that could hurt the Republican Party in the buildup to Midterm elections this November. Suspending Project Freedom also suggests he wants to avoid another flareup in violence like the one seen on the first day of the operation. Before Trump’s announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters at the White House that offensive operations against Iran were over. Project Freedom was meant to sit at the center of the next phase of the US approach to Iran. The US military said it helped two vessels exit Hormuz on Monday, repelling multiple attacks by Iranian drones, missiles and irregular navy fast-attack boats. The shipping industry is waiting for a way to guarantee safe passage through Hormuz without ships risking harassment by Iran or any other party, Dimitris Maniatis, the chief executive officer of Greek maritime risk company Marisks, told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
NN: Do not get caught up in the reality TV show game. Look at oil. Is oil coming through the straits… IF not all this talk is bullshit. Do not get shaken out of this great trade.
Oil falls over 6% on report US-Iran close to deal
The prices of oil futures declined on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 7% and slipping below the $95 mark after reports that Iran and the US were getting close to a one-page memo to end the war. US officials are said to be expecting Iran’s response to several key points in the next 48 hours, which will see both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, Tehran will cease nuclear enrichment for over a decade in exchange for the US lifting sanctions and releasing billions in Iranian frozen assets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for settlements in June fell by 7.46% at 5:21 am ET to $94.64 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for July’s deliveries went down by 6.56% to $102.66.
US, Iran said to be closest to deal since war started
The White House is nearing a one-page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran to end the conflict and launch nuclear negotiations, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing sources, which added that the parties were at their closest point to reach a deal since the start of the conflict. Under the proposal, Iran would have to accept enhanced UN inspections, stop nuclear enrichment for 12 years, possibly 15 years, maybe transfer highly enriched uranium overseas, and limit subterranean facilities. On the other end, the US would gradually remove sanctions and freeze billions of dollars’ worth of Iranian assets. The outlet said that Iran is expected to respond within 48 hours, though no deal is finalized. Earlier, US President Donald Trump paused escalation plans, citing progress in talks with the Islamic Republic.
NN: Not so fast. A memorandum is NOT a piece deal. And oil retracing it weekly move from $112 to $100 is still a $40 upward move from $60 where all this started. And i don’t see any oil flowing yet. And to make life a little more interesting Iran has not agreed.
US says Iran ceasefire holds despite exchange of fire; UAE under attack
The United Arab Emirates said it was under attack from Iranian missiles and drones on Tuesday, even as Washington said a shaky ceasefire was intact despite an exchange of fire the previous day as U.S. forces attempted to force open the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. military said it had destroyed six Iranian small boats, as well as cruise missiles and drones, after President Donald Trump sent the navy to escort stranded tankers through the strait in a campaign he called “Project Freedom”.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the operation to protect commercial ships was temporary and the four-week-old truce was not over. “We’re not looking for a fight,” he told a press conference. “Right now the ceasefire certainly holds, but we’re going to be watching very, very closely.”
Iran fired missiles at U.S. ships on Monday and attacked the UAE, a key regional ally of Washington, with missiles and drones. After issuing a new map of the Strait of Hormuz with an expanded Iranian area of control, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned vessels on Tuesday to stick to the corridors it had set or face a “decisive response”.
Trump said Iran’s military had been reduced to firing “peashooters” and Tehran wanted peace, despite public sabre-rattling. “They play games, but let me just tell you, they want to make a deal,” he told reporters in the Oval Office.
Shortly after Hegseth spoke on Tuesday, the UAE’s defence ministry said its air defences were again dealing with missile and drone attacks coming from Iran. The Gulf Arab state’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the attacks were a serious escalation and posed a direct threat to the country’s security, adding that the UAE reserved its “full and legitimate right” to respond. Several merchant ships in the Gulf reported explosions or fires on Monday, and an oil port in the UAE, which hosts a large U.S. military base, was set ablaze by Iranian missiles. Iran also said it fired warning shots at a U.S. warship approaching the strait, forcing it to turn back.
Reuters could not independently verify events in the strait as the two sides issued contradictory statements. General Dan Caine, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iranian attacks against U.S. forces fell “below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point”.