Ever since US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 and launched an attack on Iran, Washington has been warning that Cuba will be next. Under a US-imposed economic blockade, the island has received almost no fuel in 2026. On May 13, Cuba’s energy minister said the country has completely run out of the diesel and fuel oil it needs to keep its power plants running. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly said the increasing economic pressure is designed to force regime change on the communist-run island. If it doesn’t, they’ve signaled they may resort to brute force. While Trump says Cuba will be falling “pretty soon,” the island’s leaders remain defiant. “Faced with the worst possible scenario, Cuba is accompanied by one certainty: any external aggression will be met with unbreakable resistance,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X in March. Signs of hardship are everywhere in Cuba. The fuel crunch is exacerbating problems with an already decrepit grid. Cuba’s roughly 10 million residents have suffered through repeated nationwide blackouts. Gasoline is being rationed, tourist resorts are being shuttered, and the government has told airlines they won’t be able to refuel. Social media reports have showed sporadic protests breaking out in and around the capital of Havana. In March, protesters in the city of Morón threw rocks and set fire to the local communist party office. China, Brazil, Mexico and others are providing — or have pledged to provide — food and humanitarian aid. But without major fuel shipments, it’s unclear how long Cuba’s government can remain afloat. Successive US administrations have tried to topple the 67-year-old communist regime in Havana — or force it to change. But perhaps no president has turned the screws quite like Trump. Driven in part by Rubio — born in Florida to Cuban parents — the administration has ratcheted up sanctions and pressured Cuba’s neighbors such as Guatemala, Honduras and Jamaica to scale back reliance on Cuban medical missions, another source of income for Havana. Under pressure from Washington, Ecuador and Costa Rica have cut diplomatic ties with Cuba. Cuban Americans are a powerful voting bloc in South Florida, and that community has long advocated for the downfall of the regime. If Rubio were the one to pull it off, it would help make him a Republican front-runner in future elections. And in Washington, Cuba is seen as a platform for China, Russia, Iran, and other US foes on Florida’s doorstep. Some US leaders see regime change as a way to blunt this influence After months of rumors and leaks from the US, the Cuban government admitted on March 13 that negotiations are taking place. US officials have been engaging with several officials, including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro — the 94-year-old former Cuban president and brother of Fidel Castro. Rodríguez Castro is thought to have close ties with GAESA, the sprawling business conglomerate run by Cuba’s military. On May 14, US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe visited the island for high-level talks after people familiar with the matter said the US is growing frustrated over a lack of progress.
JP Morgan Warns Oil Could Average $151 in Q4
J.P. Morgan In a report sent this week by Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy, J.P. Morgan warned that Brent could average as much as $151 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year if the Strait of Hormuz reopens on September 1. This figure was the highest in a table of J.P. Morgan Brent price forecasts under alternative Strait of Hormuz reopening timelines, which predicted quarterly and annual Brent prices for 2026 and 2027 in scenarios where Hormuz opens up in mid-May, June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1. Under a mid-May reopening scenario, Brent would average $101 per barrel in the second quarter, $96 per barrel in the third quarter, $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $91 per barrel overall in 2026, according to the table. In a June 1 reopening scenario, which J.P. Morgan highlighted is its base view, Brent would average $103 per barrel in the second quarter, $104 per barrel in the third quarter, $98 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $96 per barrel overall in 2026, the table showed. A July 1 reopening scenario would see Brent average $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $116 per barrel in the third quarter, $117 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $104 per barrel overall in 2026, the table projected. In an August 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent price would come in at $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $123 per barrel in the third quarter, $134 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $110 per barrel overall in 2026. Under a September 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $104 per barrel in the second quarter, $127 per barrel in the third quarter, $151 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $115 per barrel overall in 2026, the table revealed. Looking at 2027, the table predicted that, under a mid-May reopening scenario, Brent would average $80 per barrel in the first quarter, $75 per barrel in the second quarter, $67 per barrel in the third quarter, $63 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $71 per barrel overall next year. In a June 1 reopening scenario, Brent would average $85 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $79 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $75 per barrel overall in 2027, the table revealed. A July 1 reopening scenario would see Brent come in at $105 per barrel in the first quarter, $98 per barrel in the second quarter, $87 per barrel in the third quarter, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $93 per barrel overall in 2027, the table highlighted. In an August 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan projected that the Brent price would come in at $125 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $119 per barrel in the second quarter, $107 per barrel in the third quarter, $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $113 per barrel overall in 2027. Under a September 1 reopening scenario, J.P. Morgan sees Brent averaging $147 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027, $140 per barrel in the second quarter, $125 per barrel in the third quarter, $116 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $132 per barrel overall in 2027, the table revealed. “Even if the Strait reopens in June, the seasonal lift in summer demand, combined with the exceptionally large commercial stock draws seen in March and April, and likely again in May, should push OECD inventories toward operational stress levels by August,” J.P. Morgan analysts, including Kaneva, warned in the report. “This is what keeps crude prices elevated in the low $100s through most of the year, rather than allowing a sharp retracement once Hormuz reopens,” they added.
NN: Oil at $150 a Barrell will make you or break you
Iran vows to charge fees for Hormuz passage
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central battleground of the Iran conflict. The passage of a handful of oil and gas tankers in recent days, apparently with Tehran’s consent, hints at tacit acceptance of its control. This foreshadows a more dangerous phase in what is fast turning into a Hormuz war. Tehran’s near-complete closure of the vital trade artery since the joint Israeli-U.S. airstrikes on February 28 and the reciprocal U.S. naval blockade imposed last month have sent shockwaves through global energy markets. Countries, particularly in Asia, have struggled with the sudden loss of more than 13% of global oil supply and roughly a fifth of liquefied natural gas flows. Thus, many welcomed the news that three very large crude carriers (VLCCs), each hauling around 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil headed for
Asia, slipped through last week with their tracking systems switched off, according to Kpler shipping data, with some indications the transits were coordinated with Tehran.
Qatar also shipped its first two LNG cargoes since the war began. The LNG is being sold to Pakistan – the primary mediator in U.S.-Iran negotiations – under a government-to-government deal, according to sources familiar with the matter. They said Iran had approved the shipment to help build confidence with Qatar and Pakistan.
There are also signs that other vessels, including oil tankers, have transited the strait in recent weeks with their transponders switched off. It remains unclear whether those passages were sanctioned by Iran or whether shipowners paid informal tolls to secure safe passage. Several, however, appeared to have travelled along shipping lanes close to Iran’s coastline.
While this trickle of cargoes offers badly needed relief to import-dependent economies, it is not a signal that the global energy system is returning to normal – quite the opposite. The movements represent a mere fraction of the roughly 140 vessels that crossed Hormuz daily before the conflict, meaning global markets remain tight and vulnerable. More importantly, they point to an emerging new order. Iran is beginning to dictate not whether Hormuz is open or closed, but who gets to use it – an arrangement that could outlast the current conflict and sow the seeds of the next.
NN: Do not let them shit you. These vessels that got through made a payoff to Iran. It is assign to state they got through because they turned off their transponders. These ships are so big their is not hidieng them from be seen visually or poping up on a $3,000 common radar. Wars have been fought over hundreds of years defending the freedom of navigation. To give Iran control of the straights is the next worse thing to letting them have nukes.
EIA: US crude oil inventories down by 4.3M barrels
United States crude oil stockpiles, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels in the week ending May 8, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed in its report on Wednesday. The country’s crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day, up 369,000 barrels per day from the week prior. Refineries operated at 91.7% of their capacity, while gasoline production rose to an average of 9.8 million barrels per day. Imports of crude oil into the US averaged 5.9 million barrels per day, 424,000 barrels per day more than the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped by 5.1 million barrels.
NN: This is called running out of oil!
Wright: Iran frighteningly close to a nuclear weapon
United States Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a Senate testimony on Wednesday that Iran is “frighteningly close to” and a “small number of weeks away from” enriching uranium to a nuclear weapon-grade level, although he conceded that manufacturing a nuclear weapon would take some more time. Wright stated that Iran has “some 20% enriched uranium” and that it would take “several more weeks” to reach 60%. “But when you’re at 60%, although the numbers don’t sound that way, you’re way more than 90% of the way there for the enrichment necessary for weapons-grade uranium,” he claimed. shoc
NN: The idiots were shocked when N,Korea became a nuclear club member. And S.Korea will glow in the dark. When Iran blasts the oil fields with nukes it will take 10 years for rationing to end get sufficient oil supplies back in the market.
Trump: Iran ceasefire is on ‘massive life support’
United States President Donald Trump stated on Monday that the Iran ceasefire is “unbelievably weak.” “I would say it is one of the weakest [ceasefires] – it’s on life support … I would say it’s on a massive life support,” the American leader told reporters. He also said that he did not “waste” his time reading the “piece of garbage” Tehran sent as a peace proposal, calling it “stupid.” Trump also accused Kurdish militants of withholding the weapons the US provided, saying that the Kurds “take, take, take” and that he warned against sending the equipment.
Trump blasts Iran for ‘delay’ tactics
US President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday to accuse Iran of “playing games” and laughing at America for decades, while saying the country would soon be stopped, as a ceasefire in a war in the Middle East remains fragile.
“For 47 years the Iranians have been ‘tapping’ us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent, unarmed protestors, and laughing at our now GREAT AGAIN Country. They will be laughing no longer!” he wrote. The Republican president did not directly address reports about Tehran’s response to Washington’s latest peace proposal.
NN: No surprise here
Iran sends response to US proposal through Pakistan
Iran submitted its response to the latest US proposal for a ceasefire through Pakistani mediators, the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on Sunday. According to IRNA, the proposed framework would form the basis for negotiations aimed at bringing the more than two-month conflict to an end and does not include nuclear negotiations, contrary to previous reports indicating the agreement would tackle Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Earlier, US President Donald Trump pressured Iran to accept the offer, threatening to renew the bombing campaign unless a deal was reached.
NN: No details were released. I am sure this is going nowhere fassst!
EIA: US Crude Oil Inventories Continue to Fall
Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 2.3 million barrels during the week ending May 1, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 457.2 million barrels, according to government data, which is still 1% above the five-year average for this time of year. According to weekly EIA data, crude oil inventories in the United States have increased by 1 million barrels over the last 6 weeks. The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 8.1 million barrels in the period. The gap between API and EIA prints is being driven in part by timing, with large draws and builds appearing across adjacent reporting weeks rather than in the same release.
Crude prices came crashing down on Wednesday as President Trump halted Project Freedom, citing great progress toward a final agreement with Iran. At 9:49 a.m. in New York, Brent was trading at $102.50 per barrel—down $7.33 (-6.67%) on the day, and down roughly $14 per barrel from this time last week. WTI was also trading down on the day, by $6.49 per barrel (-6.35%) in early morning trade at $95.78, down nearly $9 per barrel week over week. For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had decreased by 2.5 million barrels on top of the 6.1 million barrels lost in the week prior. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production decreased to 9.6 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels, with production decreasing to an average of 4.9 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are still 11% below the five-year average. Demand has not been swayed by the recent price hikes. Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—averaged 20.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 9.0 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels—up 3.5% percent year over year.
Iran War Is Draining World’s Oil Inventories at an Unprecedented Pace
The rapidly shrinking stockpiles mean that the risk of even more extreme price spikes and shortages is getting ever-closer, leaving governments and industries with fewer options to cushion the impact of the loss of more than a billion barrels of supply, two months into the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The sharp depletion will also mean the market stays vulnerable for longer to future disruptions even after the conflict ends. Morgan Stanley estimates global oil stockpiles dropped by about 4.8 million barrels a day between March 1 and April 25 — far exceeding the previous peak for a quarterly drawdown in data compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude accounts for almost 60% of the decline, and refined fuels the rest. Crucially, the system also requires a minimum level of oil, which means that the “operational minimum” is reached long before the inventories actually hit zero, said Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of global commodities research. “Inventories are acting as the shock absorber of the global oil system,” she said. But “not every barrel can be drawn.”
World Oil Inventories Are Falling at a Record Pace
Total visible oil inventories, in billions of barrels
The most immediate points of stress are in a handful of fuel-import-reliant countries in Asia, with traders pointing to Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines as the biggest worries, potentially hitting critical levels of supplies in as little as a month. Larger economies in the region, particularly China remain comfortable for now. However, European jet-fuel stocks are also depleting fast just as summer vacations approach, and some analysts predict they could hit critical levels as soon as June. The US, which has become the supplier of last resort to the world, has already drawn down domestic inventories of crude and fuels to below historical averages as exports surge. US crude stocks, including the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have dropped for the last four straight weeks, according to government data. US distillate stockpiles were at their lowest point since 2005 at the end of last week, while gasoline stockpiles were hovering near their lowest seasonal levels since 2014.
Even if the waterway reopens, Gulf output and shipping is unlikely to return to normal levels any time soon, meaning fuel users could have to dig even deeper into storage tanks.
The conflict has already sent physical crude and key fuel prices surging, threatening higher inflation and intensifying the risk of a global recession. It has left India suffering liquefied petroleum gas shortages, prompted airlines to cancel flights and hit US drivers with soaring gasoline costs. “A lot of the inventory and spare capacity has been depleted already,” Chevron Corp. Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner told Bloomberg TV on May 1. “We are going to start to see some import-dependent countries potentially start to face critical shortages as we get into the June-July time-frame.”
Oil Prices Rallied on Biggest-Ever Supply Shock
If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen by early June, some Asian countries will face a macroeconomic shock because of the shortage of gasoil, he predicted, while Europe may have one more month before the situation becomes difficult to manage. To be sure, some analysts and traders say that the stress points are lower than what JPMorgan estimates, meaning that the industry could have a bigger buffer, while further demand loss would also help reduce the pressure on the system. The JPMorgan estimates assume demand destruction of 5.6 million barrels a day for June through September.
Diesel — the lifeblood of the global economy — is also facing a crunch. Countries hit hardest are those with limited domestic crude production and refining capacity, said Xavier Tang, a senior market analyst at Vortexa Ltd. “Northeast Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea hold ample crude and product stocks in their storage tanks,” said Tang. “Vietnam, Philippines are in a more dire situation;
Europe and Jet Fuel
In Europe, the critical product is jet fuel. Inventories in independent storage at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub have plunged a third since the war started to a six-year low, according to Insights Global, which gets data from terminal operators.
Inventories Drop in Europe’s Oil Trading Hub
Stockpiles of jet fuel/kerosene held in independent storage
Source: Insights Global
“Since February, we have seen a steady drop in jet fuel stocks,” said Lars van Wageningen, research and consultancy manager at Insights Global. “Other regions like Asia and Australia also need to source this product, so everybody’s scrambling for whatever jet fuel they can get — with a cost.” While there’s enough supply in the short-term, summer demand could cause stocks to dry up in five months, he said. The UK, Germany and France are most vulnerable because of heavy traffic and insufficient local production.