Ever since US Special Forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3 and launched an attack on Iran, Washington has been warning that Cuba will be next. Under a US-imposed economic blockade, the island has received almost no fuel in 2026. On May 13, Cuba’s energy minister said the country has completely run out of the diesel and fuel oil it needs to keep its power plants running. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have repeatedly said the increasing economic pressure is designed to force regime change on the communist-run island. If it doesn’t, they’ve signaled they may resort to brute force. While Trump says Cuba will be falling “pretty soon,” the island’s leaders remain defiant. “Faced with the worst possible scenario, Cuba is accompanied by one certainty: any external aggression will be met with unbreakable resistance,” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel wrote on X in March. Signs of hardship are everywhere in Cuba. The fuel crunch is exacerbating problems with an already decrepit grid. Cuba’s roughly 10 million residents have suffered through repeated nationwide blackouts. Gasoline is being rationed, tourist resorts are being shuttered, and the government has told airlines they won’t be able to refuel. Social media reports have showed sporadic protests breaking out in and around the capital of Havana. In March, protesters in the city of Morón threw rocks and set fire to the local communist party office. China, Brazil, Mexico and others are providing — or have pledged to provide — food and humanitarian aid. But without major fuel shipments, it’s unclear how long Cuba’s government can remain afloat. Successive US administrations have tried to topple the 67-year-old communist regime in Havana — or force it to change. But perhaps no president has turned the screws quite like Trump. Driven in part by Rubio — born in Florida to Cuban parents — the administration has ratcheted up sanctions and pressured Cuba’s neighbors such as Guatemala, Honduras and Jamaica to scale back reliance on Cuban medical missions, another source of income for Havana. Under pressure from Washington, Ecuador and Costa Rica have cut diplomatic ties with Cuba. Cuban Americans are a powerful voting bloc in South Florida, and that community has long advocated for the downfall of the regime. If Rubio were the one to pull it off, it would help make him a Republican front-runner in future elections. And in Washington, Cuba is seen as a platform for China, Russia, Iran, and other US foes on Florida’s doorstep. Some US leaders see regime change as a way to blunt this influence After months of rumors and leaks from the US, the Cuban government admitted on March 13 that negotiations are taking place. US officials have been engaging with several officials, including Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro — the 94-year-old former Cuban president and brother of Fidel Castro. Rodríguez Castro is thought to have close ties with GAESA, the sprawling business conglomerate run by Cuba’s military. On May 14, US Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe visited the island for high-level talks after people familiar with the matter said the US is growing frustrated over a lack of progress.