Lebanon, a country of six million scarred by sectarianism and under the de facto control of the Islamist movement, is in the grips of a dire financial crisis; its people are in no position to bear the brunt of another war. The Observer’s conversations with Beirutis over the past few weeks suggest that the Lebanese still believe the cross-border hostilities can be contained, as Hezbollah does not want to antagonise its base. For the time being, what happens in the north is dependent on the trajectory of Israel’s war in Gaza. Despite international calls for restraint, including from Israel’s closest ally, the US, the IDF appears to finally be gearing up for its long-threatened offensive on Rafah . An Israeli ground operation there is likely to cause thousands of civilian casualties and further disrupt meagre aid deliveries. Protracted ceasefire talks mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar have gained traction again in the past week or so, but it remains uncertain whether any truce and hostage release deal can be struck that would spare Rafah from an Israeli offensive in the next few weeks.The IDF is loath to stretch troops across two major fronts, so a wider operation in the north is unlikely to come before Rafah’s fate is decided. For its part, Hezbollah has vowed to continue fighting until Israel completely withdraws from Gaza.