Fed’s Kaplan targets 2020 GDP decline of 4.5%-5%

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan told Fox Business Network on Friday he sees the decline in the United States’ gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 between -4.5% and -5%. Kaplan stated that he expects the national economy to grow in the third and fourth quarter of the year despite the slump it has experienced in the second trimester as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. He stressed the importance of preserving health safety, saying the economy will “grow faster if we all wear masks.” Earlier this week, the Congressional Budget Office announced the budget deficit is now 100 times higher than in the same period last year. However, in spite of that, Kaplan’s fellow central bankers Raphael Bostic and James Bullard remain hopeful of the economic recovery. Kaplan said he projects that gross domestic product will drop by an annualized rate of -35% to -40% in the second quarter and that it should start to recover in the second half of the year. The US economy will experience a “significant, historic” contraction in the second quarter before it starts to rebound, and unemployment will remain elevated at the end of 2020. He said the economy may recover more quickly if consumers and businesses take precautions to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus. “If people wear masks widely, if we have extensive testing and contact tracing, if businesses and us as individuals follow good procedure, we’re going to grow faster,” Kaplan said during a virtual discussion organized by the Money Marketeers of New York University. The US unemployment rate may have peaked and should decline over the summer, but could remain high near 8% at the end of the year, he said. Kaplan said he expects inflation to remain muted over the next couple of years even though some food prices are rising. US Federal Reserve officials need to continue discussing the possibility of using yield-curve control, in which the central bank would target interest rates at specific maturities, Kaplan said. Bond market players are increasingly convinced one of the Fed’s next moves will be to cap yields at a specific point on the curve. “I have certain concerns about it, but I wouldn’t rule it out” said Kaplan, adding that he wants to make sure the Fed doesn’t create “more distortions” in financial markets. Nick Note: Paper masks will not save the global economy. I wish it was that simple.Nick Note: they have blown so much BLUE SKY up my ass that i will be shitting blue turds for a week and burping white clouds!