An uncertain supply picture has oil markets on edge, with disruptions and geopolitical risks being counterbalanced by rising production in Norway and Libya. Economic uncertainty is adding downward pressure to oil prices. The continued rerouting of ships from Asia to Europe has been greatly reducing the availability of spot tankers that could be chartered, lifting the price of shipping, especially when it comes to clean products. As Bloomberg reports, the day rate for shipping a cargo of gasoline from northwest Europe to the US East Coast has tripled since the start of the year, nearing $38,000 per day this week. US and UK forces conducted strikes on eight Houthi targets late Monday, making it even more likely that Red Sea disruptions will be longer than expected as the previous attack on January 11 had triggered a round of retaliatory strikes. Routing tankers carrying refined products through the Cape adds $1 million to freight costs, equivalent to a $1.5/bbl premium, despite the fact there is no canal passing along the way (the Suez Canal has just hiked its 2024 prices to roughly $500-600,000 per passage). Fitch Ratings estimated on Wednesday that the ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea will maintain the oil price premium, as well as premiums in the wider commodity markets, including gas, chemicals, and fertilizers. Many companies are choosing to reroute vessels via the Cape of Good Hope in the very south of Africa to avoid possible attacks by Houthis in the Red Sea.However, Fitch is currently keeping its 2024 Brent oil price projection of $80 per barrel barring any “material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region.” The ratings agency said it expects the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024, which should “cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions.” Its TTF gas price assumption for 2024 is also unchanged at $12/mcf.