The United Nations atomic watchdog is said to have pulled its last remaining inspectors out of Iran following the implementation of a new law that criminalizes international monitoring, deepening the blackout over Tehran’s nuclear program. The last International Atomic Energy Agency specialists were safely withdrawn from Tehran on Friday to the Vienna-based agency, according to a western diplomat, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information.
It’s the first time since Iran began enriching uranium two decades ago that IAEA monitors — who conducted almost 500 inspections in the Islamic Republic last year — have been expelled from the country.
The withdrawal is likely to draw swift rebukes from Western governments, which have been urging Tehran to allow a resumption of IAEA visits since a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war last month. Instead, the Israeli decision to bomb nuclear sites and military targets on June 13 has effectively put up a barrier, ending oversight of whether Iran is capable of developing a weapons program.
The 274 IAEA monitors accredited to conduct inspections had been verifying the location of Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of near-bomb-grade uranium, which is now unknown. Iran has accused the watchdog of being complicit in Israel’s attack against its nuclear installations, a charge IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi has denied. Tehran’s envoy in Vienna said the strikes, which US forces joined on June 22, have caused irreparable harm to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the international agreement that allows non-weapons states access to nuclear technologies in return for IAEA inspections. While Iran has yet to leave the NPT, it can argue it’s legally entitled to suspend monitoring under provisions of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which allows signatories to withdraw cooperation if their rights have been breached. It’s widely established internationally that attacks against nuclear facilities break legal norms. Whether Iran’s legal arguments gain purchase at the IAEA or beyond may influence whether or not the ceasefire between the Persian Gulf nation and Israel holds.
Fighting stopped on June 24 after 12 days, but neither side has ruled out resuming hostilities. To help deter against a renewed assault, Iran could use uncertainty over the whereabouts of its highly enriched uranium to try to dictate events.
For the US and Israel to gain knowledge of the state and location of the stockpile, physical inspections and verification will need to be carried out, most likely via negotiated access for the IAEA.