Surge in registration of younger U.K. voters
The British pound has been on a roll of late, climbing against both the dollar on expectations the Conservative party will secure a majority in the Dec. 12 general election. The pound on Thursday reached a fresh five-month high against the U.S. dollar. With a majority in Parliament, Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to pass a withdrawal agreement bill to exit the European Union. Johnson would then have to negotiate a trade deal with the E.U. Virtually every pre-election poll has the Conservatives with a bigger lead than is necessary to secure a majority in the Parliament. The general consensus is that a victory by 6 or 7 percentage points is needed for Conservatives to escape a so-called hung Parliament. Of the major polls, only one, from ICM Research, shows the Conservatives with a 7-point lead. More typical is the poll from YouGov showing the Conservatives with a 9-point lead.
If sterling traders are making a mistake, however, it will be because of this chart.
Put together by Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, it shows a surge in voter registrations. About two-thirds of those registrations been made by those under the age of 35, who are far more likely to vote Labour. In 2017, first-time voters aged 18 and 19 favored Labour by 47 percentage points, according to YouGov. Nick Note: As you know i think this is going to blow up in Boris face. Remember the people did not elect him. AND AND AND the Brits are very suspicious of the in the dark of the night Brexit deal Boris and friends are trying to cram down their throat… My bet obviously is this will fall apart. The Brits are courting disaster!