Iran Fires Hundreds of Missiles at Israel as Conflict Escalates

Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel in response to an unprecedented attack on its nuclear facilities, escalating a conflict between sworn enemies that threatens to engulf the oil-rich Middle East. The Islamic Republic targeted Israeli cities with multiple waves of missiles and a barrage of drones starting Friday evening, some of which breached the country’s air defenses. US forces helped shoot down the projectiles. Three people were killed in the Tel Aviv area and at least 40 were injured in multiple strikes, according to police and emergency services. There was video footage of at least one large explosion in Tel Aviv and reports of blasts over Jerusalem. The full extent of the damage is still being assessed. Israel’s air defense systems including the Iron Dome and David’s Sling boast an interception rate upward of 90%. If combined at varying altitudes, the chance of a successful shoot-down increases exponentially. The intensity of the fighting represents a turning point for both Israel and Iran, testing new limits in terms of their aggression and willingness to escalate. When the pair targeted each other on two occasions last year, there was a greater time lag and a sense that after an exchange of fire, there would be a dé​tente. Israel has indicated this operation could last weeks, while Iran has signaled no letup in its retaliation. Further escalation — particularly any targeting of American military or diplomatic facilities in the region — could rally domestic political support for Iran’s rulers and dramatically intensify the conflict. It’s unclear if Tehran is entertaining last-resort options — such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s vital oil arteries, a scenario that would ratchet up concern among investors. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed to “act forcefully” in a pre-recorded video message carried by state TV. Israel “should not think that it is over. We won’t allow them to escape unscathed from this great crime they have committed,” he said in a statement released after Iran started its retaliation.

The semi-official Fars news agency citied an unnamed military official as saying the conflict will soon “expand” beyond Israel to US bases in the region. So far, Iran has chosen to keep the US out of the conflict — a decision that an analysis by Bloomberg Economics suggested was the most likely since Tehran can’t afford to go to war with the world’s biggest economy and most powerful military. The damage to Iran’s regional standing and its military command structure is considerable. The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, and the military’s chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, were both killed in Israeli strikes. At least two other senior IRGC members died and several nuclear facilities were targeted. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace division, was also slain, Iranian state TV reported.

Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that Israel struck the nuclear sites at Fordow and Isfahan as part of its latest wave of attacks, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told the UN Security Council on Friday.The IAEA doesn’t have information beyond indications that military activity took place around those facilities, Grossi said. If the facility at Isfahan is disabled, it would seriously crimp Iran’s ability to enrich uranium in large  quantities.