Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Program, Braces for Retaliation

Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile programs
Iran vows blow against Israel, US; Says no damage to refineries
Israeli airstrikes killed commander of Revolutionary Guard
US says not involved, warned Iran against targeting US assets
Crude oil, gold surge as stocks drop

The opening strike was targeting top leaders of the Islamic Republic, Iran’s state TV has just reported that the chief of staff of the nation’s Armed Forces was also killed in Israeli strikes, without providing any further details Fox News cited Trump as saying that “there are several people in leadership that will not be coming back.”

Israel’s opening strike on Iran was “very successful,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement. He said Israel struck Iranian senior commanders, nuclear facilities and senior scientists advancing nuclear weapons. Netanyahu also called on the public to be prepared to spend an extended period in shelters. National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Co. says Israeli attacks didn’t cause any damage to the country’s oil refineries and storage tanks, state-run IRNA news agency reports. Fuel distribution across Iran ongoing without interruption.

Here’s a look at Iran’s oil and gas assets.

Iran’s Oil and Gas Assets: What to Watch |

Omar , Oman said it holds Israel responsible for this escalation and its repercussions and says such a “reckless” approach threatens to “preclude diplomatic solutions and undermine the security and stability of the region,” state-run Oman News Agency reports. This is the first Gulf state to comment on the attack. Oman has been mediating between the US and Iran and is the host of nuclear talks. The sixth round of these negotiations between the US and Iran were scheduled to be held on June 15.

Fox News reporter Jennifer Griffin’s readout of the network’s phone call with President Trump:

For central banks, including the RBA, it adds to the uncertainty in the global environment. We’d expect some of the strongest reaction in oil prices which could reverberate through into inflation rates if persistent.”

Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research, says much in markets will depend on how Iran retaliates. If the nation hits US assets in the region, for example, the US response will be immediate and painful — even though the administration was quick to say today they had no involvement in the Israeli strike. The only certainty at this point is upward pressure on crude, he said, though the spike would be temporary and not change central bank policy outlook.

“Investors should expect a cycle of retaliation and re-retaliation, as in 2024, but should fade effects on both crude and global risk assets if this becomes the bulk of the Iranian retaliation.”

Katia DmitrievaAsia Economics Correspondent

Oil Spikes After Israel Struck Iran | Prices surged on heightening tensions on the Middle East

Oil options volatility has surged to the highest level in three years as traders seek protection from surging prices after Israel carried out airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear program.

Oil Options Price Bigger Geopolitical Risks | Options have borne the brunt of geopolitical volatility in recent months

“The only way to stop or disrupt Iran becoming a nuclear power is by force and Israel is the only country with both the stomach and capability to do so,” he said. “Most of the rest of the region particularly Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt, will quietly cheer.”

Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who specializes in the region, reacted on social media:

“If you were to ask the worst case scenario, this would be close to it — ongoing US-Iran talks (regardless of progress) and Israel acting on its own, targeting Iran’s military leadership along with civilian casualties only three days before US-Iran negotiations.”

Following up from what IRNA reported, we now have headlines coming from Iran’s Armed Forces spokesperson. In a televised address, he said Israel and the US will receive a “harsh blow” in response. Israel and Iran are operating in a “new paradigm,” and a military response by Tehran is inevitable, said Rodger Shanahan, Middle East expert and former Australian army officer.

“You can’t not do something. It’s what your risk tolerance is and how you perceive Israel’s Western allies are going to protect them,” he said.

Whether or not the conflict escalates depends on Iran’s choice of target, Shanahan said. A like-for-like attack on military installations would be “containable,” he said, but any move to indiscriminately attack Israel’s civilian population would cross a red line. As expected, Iran says it’s planning a “decisive response,” according to IRNA news agency reports. Iranian TV meantime reported an explosion at the Natanz nuclear site and a a blast at the Shahid Ahmadi Roshan nuclear site.