- Hezbollah, Hamas leaders said assassinated in Beirut, Tehran
- Risk of regional conflagration increases as revenge is vowed
Within seven hours overnight, Israel targeted top leaders of Hezbollah in Beirut and Hamas in Tehran in a show of its willingness to risk retaliation and regional conflagration while hunting down enemies abroad.Israeli officials said the killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital was in response to a rocket attack last weekend from Lebanon that claimed the lives of a dozen young people playing soccer in the Golan Heights. Shukr was said to be Hezbollah’s chief of staff, in charge of its military activity. The missile fired into the Tehran guest house occupied by Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, killed him and his bodyguard. Israel has vowed to eliminate every Hamas official since the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war in Gaza. Israel hasn’t official claimed responsibility, but no one in the country doubts who did it. “It’s part of Israel’s long-term counter-terrorism paradigm that you go after the leaders of terror organizations,” noted Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank focused on political reform and critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “There’s a broad consensus among Israelis that all those who perpetrated the Oct. 7 massacre should cease to exist.”
From the outside, the risks appear steep. Talks under way with Hamas to free hostages and impose a cease-fire on the nearly 10-month-old war in Gaza seem likely to stall if not break down.
While Lebanon’s Hezbollah has not confirmed Shukr’s death, the diplomacy aimed at getting it to stop firing missiles at Israel and move its forces away from the border seems equally likely to be affected. Israeli analysts noted that Haniyeh was killed in Iran where he was visiting, not in Qatar, where he lives, in order not to alienate the Qataris who are key to the hostage talks. Less clear is how Iran — chief sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all groups that are attacking Israel — will react to having a visitor to a state ceremony assassinated under its nose. On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke not of diplomacy but retaliation, vowing that Israel has “prepared the ground for its severe punishment.”
Now, says Firas Modad, founder of Modad Geopolitics, a consultancy for investors, there is likely to be “a severe increase in risks to energy infrastructure” in the Persian Gulf as well as “to shipping in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean, to assets located near US bases in the region, to aviation” in the region and “to US and UK personnel.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, asked while visiting the Philippines about the impact of the killings, said he didn’t think war was inevitable. “We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we keep things from turning into a broader conflict throughout the region,” he said. “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that in April. You can expect to see us do that again.” NN: The battle lines are being drawn. And yes their will be one hell of a battle. By the way all air traffic has been grounded i the north part of Israel. Reguard this as the quiet in the eye storm .