When Iraq fired dozens of Scud missiles on Israel in early 1991, the US implored then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir not to respond. Shamir said he had to act. After days of late-night calls, high-level visits and long cabinet meetings, Israel stood down and the US led a 42-nation alliance that defeated Iraq in what became the Gulf War. Iran’s decision to launch 350 missiles and drones at Israel last weekend was the first time since then that a sovereign nation carried out such an assault on the Jewish state. Another hardline Likud party leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is prime minister and an equally frantic set of calls and visitors is urging him not to react while cabinet meetings focus on the need to do something. But while offering many parallels, the latest events are different from 1991 in at least one significant way: Israel’s powerful Western allies aren’t offering to do the fighting for it. Rather, they’re suggesting that no one challenge Iran militarily just now. And many in Israel, including in Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition, say that will not fly. Iran has said its mission is over after seeking to avenge an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Israel claimed success after repelling the barrage with virtually no damage or deaths. Yet the urgent question remains whether the two plunge into a deeper direct conflict with repercussions beyond the Middle East, and how much of the answer comes down to Israeli politics — and Netanyahu’s survival instincts. “We can’t absorb this quietly,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Israel’s Army Radio on Wednesday. “We are at a crossroads regarding our place in the Middle East, as well as that of our children. Our deterrence is in a problematic spot, and a weak response is dangerous.” US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have told Netanyahu all week to “take the win,” referring to the fact that — with their help and that of neighboring Arab states — Israel stopped 99% of the projectiles aimed at it. “One thing Israel realized on October 7 is that what we think of as ‘deterred’ is not necessarily so,” said Menahem Merhavy, a researcher on Iran at Hebrew University’s Truman Institute. “Hamas was not deterred; Hezbollah is not deterred. We still have Gaza on our plate and the hostages and the north. That’s where we need to put our focus now.” Jonathan Conricus, a former military spokesman for Israel, now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, says that no matter what Israel will directly hit Iranian soil. “The minimum would be to strike Iran hard enough to cause them to pause and think many times again before doing this again,” he said.
Iran says it could destroy Israel’s nuclear facilities
The head of the Iranian Nuclear Protection and Security Corps Ahmad Haqtalab said on Thursday that Iran has identified Israeli nuclear facilities and has its “hand on the trigger” to target them if Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear centers, according to the Iranian state news agency Tasnim. He said Iran could “revise and deviate from the declared nuclear policies and considerations” if threatened. Haqtalab assured that Iran is “ready to face any threat” from Israel “by using passive defense plans as well as highly advanced facilities and equipment, and due to the dispersion of our country’s nuclear complexes and facilities.”