Oil Prices Are Rallying Once Again

Following several weeks of declines, oil prices are now rising once again on a combination of geopolitical risk, rising demand, and supply concerns. Oil prices are once again climbing after several weeks of declines. Falling US crude inventories and robust Chinese imports have sparked some bullish sentiment in oil markets. Brent futures are set to post their first weekly gain since early April, moving closer to $85 per barrel, further boosted by the easing of the US labor market (jobless claims the highest in eight months) and Israel’s Rafah operation.   According to media reports, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s environmental rules and halt the current freeze on new LNG export terminals, asking them to raise $1 billion for his campaign.  China’s oil imports have risen year-over-year to about 10.88 million b/d last month, a 5.5% increase compared to April 2023, with refinery activity boosted by high-flying activity during the Labour Day holiday and also improving manufacturing activity. The US Department of Energy issued a solicitation for a new refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve now that WTI prices dropped to $79 per barrel, seeking to purchase 3.3 million barrels of oil for an October delivery to the Big Hill storage facility.  The US Treasury is poised to target Iran’s export capacities by targeting service providers in Singapore and Malaysia as approximately half of the Middle Eastern country’s exports carry out ship-to-ship transfers in the Malacca Strait, to be further shipped to China.  Despite Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut back its production capacity expansion, the Saudi NOC reported a 23.8% increase in capital expenditure in Q1 2024, boosted by new investments into natural gas, renewables, and lower-carbon fuels.