The war premium has started to evaporate, especially after the recent rally
ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note on Tuesday “China’s National Development and Reforms Commission (NDRC) failed to announce any new supportive measures. Without policy support, an economic slowdown could keep China’s oil demand subdued in the short to medium term,”.
PMV oil brokerage said in a Tuesday note. The return of Libya’s oil production and exports after more than a month of hiatus due to the political stalemate has also weighed on the prices. “Oil can keep ascending only for so long purely based on perceptions and not actual supply disruption,” “The geopolitical risk premium has an obscure and unforeseeable expiry date. When that point arrives and is not replaced by genuine and supportive fundamental factors, in the case of the Middle East conflict by a palpable supply shortage, the move higher will not be sustainable.”
Omega Intranational Trust analyst Nick Guarino in a on line Pod Cast warned “after the elections and especially if Tromp wins oil could go over $150 barrel. The US and Israel are adamant a radicalized Iran should never be allowed to have nukes”
NN BlaskMask Pod Cast: