Iran has amassed even more near weapons-grade uranium, UN watchdog says

VIENNA (AP) — Iran has further increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to near weapons-grade levels, a confidential report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Saturday and called on Tehran to urgently change course and comply with the agency’s probe. The report comes at a sensitive time as Tehran and Washington have been holding several rounds of talks in the past weeks over a possible nuclear deal that U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to reach. The report by the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency — which was seen by The Associated Press — says that as of May 17, Iran has amassed 408.6 kilograms (900.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%. That’s an increase of 133.8 kilograms (294.9 pounds) — or almost 50% — since the IAEA’s last report in February. The 60% enriched material is a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. A report in February put this stockpile level at 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds). There was no immediate comment from Tehran on the new IAEA report.

The IAEA report raised a stern warning

 Iran is now “the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such material” — something the agency said was of “serious concern.” Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90%, according to the watchdog. The IAEA report, a quarterly, also estimated that as of May 17, Iran’s overall stockpile of enriched uranium — which includes uranium enriched to lower levels — stood at 9,247.6 kilograms (20,387.4 pounds). That’s an increase of 953.2 kilograms (2,101.4 pounds) since February’s report. Iran has maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, but the IAEA chief, Rafael Mariano Grossi, has warned that Tehran has enough uranium enriched to near-weapons-grade levels to make “several” nuclear bombs if it chose to do so. Iranian officials have increasingly suggested that Tehran could pursue an atomic bomb. U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Israel said Saturday’s report was a clear warning sign that “Iran is totally determined to complete its nuclear weapons program,” according to a statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office. It said IAEA’s report “strongly reinforces what Israel has been saying for years — the purpose of Iran’s nuclear program is not peaceful.” It also added that Iran’s level of enrichment “has no civilian justification whatsoever” and appealed on the international community to “act now to stop Iran.” Grossi said Saturday that he “reiterates his urgent call upon Iran to cooperate fully and effectively” with the IAEA’s years long investigation into uranium traces discovered at several sites in Iran. The IAEA also circulated to member states on Saturday a second, 22-page confidential report, also seen by the AP, that Grossi requested following a resolution passed by the 35-member IAEA Board of Governors last November.

In this so-called “comprehensive report,” the IAEA said that Iran’s cooperation with the agency has “been less than satisfactory” when it comes to uranium traces discovered by IAEA inspectors at several locations in Iran that Tehran has failed to declare as nuclear sites.

Western officials suspect that the uranium traces discovered by the IAEA could provide evidence that Iran had a secret military nuclear program until 2003. One of the sites became known publicly in 2018 after Netanyahu revealed it at the United Nations and called it a clandestine nuclear warehouse hidden at a rug-cleaning plant. Iran denied this but in 2019 IAEA inspectors detected the presence of manmade uranium particles there. After initially blocking IAEA access, inspectors were able to collect samples in 2020 from two other locations where they also detected the presence of manmade uranium particles. The three locations became known as Turquzabad, Varamin, and Marivan. A fourth undeclared location named as Lavisan-Shian is also part of the IAEA probe but IAEA inspectors never visited the site because it was razed and demolished by Iran after 2003. In Saturday’s comprehensive report, the IAEA says that the “lack of answers and clarifications provided by Iran” to questions the watchdog had regarding Lavisan-Shian, Varamin and Marivan “has led the agency to conclude that these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear program carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material.” Saturday’s comprehensive report could be a basis for possible further steps by European nations, leading to a potential escalation in tensions between Iran and the West. European countries could move to trigger snap-back sanctions against Iran that were lifted under the original 2015 nuclear deal ahead of October, when the deal formally expires. On Thursday, senior Iranian officials dismissed speculation about an imminent nuclear deal with the United States, emphasizing that any agreement must fully lift sanctions and allow the country’s nuclear program to continue. The comments came a day after Trump said he has told Netanyahu to hold off on striking Iran to give the U.S. administration more time to push for a new deal with Tehran. Trump said on Friday that he still thinks a deal could be completed in the “not too distant future.”

“They don’t want to be blown up. They would rather make a deal,” Trump said of Iran. He added, “That would be a great thing that we could have a deal without bombs being dropped all over the Middle East.”

NN: don’t be so sure

Hedge Funds Rush Into Oil Short Bets as OPEC Supply Risk Looms…….OPEC+ agrees to boost output by 411K bpd in July

Hedge funds loaded up on the most bearish bets against Brent crude since October as the market braced for a fresh injection of OPEC+ supply. Money managers upped their short-only bets on Brent by 16,922 lots to 130,019 lots in the week ended May 27, the most in eight months, according to figures from ICE Futures Europe. At the same time, short-only bets against West Texas Intermediate rose to a three-week high, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

Oil slipped last week as the prospect of another major OPEC+ production hike raised concerns about a supply glut. A sub-group led by Saudi Arabia is set to meet on Saturday to decide on July output levels, following preliminary talks last week on a third consecutive supply increase. Adding to headwinds, investors’ assessed some optimistic signals out of Washington on a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. Relaxed sanctions on the OPEC member stand to boost supplies, hurting prices. Short-only bets against gasoline also rose to a four-week high even with the summer driving season underway, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

OPEC+ agrees to boost output by 411K bpd in July as expected and priced

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, agreed during a video call on Saturday to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, energy journalist Amena Bakr reported. The output increase will be implemented for the third month in a row by eight key nations, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, after they earlier agreed to make the same moves in May and June. The group will hold its next meeting on July 6, when 8it is set to decide on its policy for August.

NN: a well telegraphed  and priced move

Iran said to vow ‘severe’ response if US destroys its nuclear sites

Image

Iran warned that United States President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities is a “clear red line,” stressing that crossing it would have “severe consequences,” Fars News reported on Friday, citing an anonymous official.

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has always shown that it will not surrender to bullying. If the US is seeking a diplomatic solution, it must distance itself from the language of threats and sanctions and adhere to its international obligations,” the official allegedly said.

Trump has repeatedly warned that the US could launch airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites if the deal between the two countries isn’t reached.

NN: We are approaching a critical phase. This could trigger a nuclear exchange

 

Katz to Hamas: Accept US proposal or ‘be destroyed’

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on Friday called on Hamas to accept United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff’s latest proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal if it does not want to be demolished.

“The Hamas murderers must now choose: accept the terms of the ‘Witkoff deal’ for the release of the hostages, or be destroyed,” Katz said in a statement.

The minister reiterated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is carrying out its operation in the Gaza Strip “with full force,” destroying Hamas strongholds. “After eliminating the terrorists and clearing the area, the IDF will remove all threats according to the Rafah model, and remain to hold the area,” he warned.

Dimon: You are going to see crack in bond market

“You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Friday while speaking at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum. He shared that while some investors are likely to panic, JPMorgan won’t, adding that the business “will be fine” and “will probably make more money.” He insisted that, unlike what some might think, his company doesn’t like crises. “We can make everything better by just changing and modifying certain rules and regulations,” he added. While he is uncertain if a crisis will happen in “six months or six years,” Dimon expressed hope that the trajectory of the debt will change. Talking about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, Dimon remarked that the United States central bank is right to wait with interest rate cuts. “The Fed has a tough job,” he commented.

nn: zeroes here we come

US proposes 60-day ceasefire for Gaza; hostage-prisoner swap, plan shows

May 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. plan for Gaza, seen by Reuters on Friday, proposes a 60-day ceasefire and the release of 28 Israeli hostages – alive and dead – in the first week, in exchange for the release of 1,236 Palestinian prisoners and the remains of 180 dead Palestinians. The document, which says the plan is guaranteed by U.S. President Donald Trump and mediators Egypt and Qatar, includes sending humanitarian aid to Gaza as soon as Hamas signs off on the ceasefire agreement. The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global trade and tariff news.  The aid will be delivered by the United Nations, the Red Crescent and other agreed channels. The White House said on Thursday that Israel had agreed to the U.S. ceasefire proposal. Israeli media said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the families of hostages held in Gaza that Israel had accepted the deal presented by Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The prime minister’s office declined to comment.  The Palestinian militant group Hamas said it had received the Israeli response to the proposal, which it said “fails to meet any of the just and legitimate demands of our people” including an immediate cessation of hostilities and an end to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Hamas official Basem Naim said the Israeli response “fundamentally seeks to entrench the occupation and perpetuate policies of killing and starvation, even during what is supposed to be a period of temporary de-escalation”. Israel has insisted that Hamas disarm completely, be dismantled as a military and governing force and return all 58 hostages still held in Gaza before it will agree to end the war.

Hamas reviewing a ceasefire proposal as Israeli strikes kill at least 14 in Gaza

Israeli airstrikes killed at least 14 people in the Gaza Strip, hospital officials said Friday, while Hamas was reviewing a new Israeli-approved ceasefire proposal after giving it an initial cool response.

President Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy had expressed optimism this week about brokering an agreement that could halt the Israel-Hamas war, allow more aid into Gaza, and return more of the 58 hostages still held by Hamas, around a third of whom are alive.

Experts say a nearly three-month Israeli blockade of Gaza — slightly eased in recent days — has pushed the population of roughly 2 million Palestinians to the brink of famine.

Israel’s war in Gaza has killed around 54,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its tally. The war began with Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which left around 1,200 dead. US- and Israeli-backed foundation says it distributed over 2 million meals The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said Friday it distributed more than 2 million of what it described as meals within four days of starting operations. It said that on Friday it distributed six truckloads of food at one distribution point.  The GHF has faced criticism by aid groups and Palestinians for a chaotic rollout since it began operations this week. The group said that it was committed to safely and effectively supplying food to a “large, hungry population.” It said it planned to scale and build additional sites — including in the north of Gaza — in the coming weeks and that it was testing and adapting its distribution model to safely deliver as much aid as possible to the greatest number of people.

Israel has accepted a new U.S. proposal for a temporary ceasefire with Hamas, the White House said Thursday, while Hamas has had a cooler response. “If they (Hamas) want guarantees, we will give them guarantees that after the last hostages will back to Israel, we will stop the war,” Samerano said. “I’m telling you, Netanyahu, say yes. All our countries say yes, the families say yes. All the families, when we are saying, stop the world and give us the hostages back.” Hamas said Friday it was reviewing a new Israeli-approved ceasefire proposal. The White House said Thursday that Israel accepted a new U.S. proposal for a temporary ceasefire with Hamas. Hamas officials, however, gave the draft a cool response, saying that it seeks to perpetuate Israel’s policies of killing and starving people in Gaza. Still, the group said it was going to thoroughly review it. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to end the war until all the hostages are released and Hamas is either destroyed or disarmed and sent into exile. Hamas has said it will only release the remaining hostages for a lasting ceasefire and a full Israeli withdrawal.

Saudi warned Iran to reach nuclear deal with Trump or risk Israeli strike

  • Prince Khalid delivered King Salman’s urgent message during Tehran trip
  • Riyadh urged rapid progress on US-Iran nuclear talks, sources say
  • Prince said Trump’s approach leaves little room for drawn-out talks
  • Stalled deal could risk triggering Israeli military action, he warned
DUBAI, May 30 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian officials in Tehran last month: take President Donald Trump’s offer to negotiate a nuclear agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel. Alarmed at the prospect of further instability in the region, Saudi Arabia’s 89-year-old King Salman bin Abdulaziz dispatched his son, Prince Khalid bin Salman, with the warning destined for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to two Gulf sources close to government circles and two Iranian officials. Present at the closed-door meeting in Tehran, which took place on April 17 in the presidential compound, were Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, armed forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the sources said. While media covered the 37-year-old prince’s visit, the content of the King Salman’s covert message has not been previously reported.
Prince Khalid, who was Saudi ambassador to Washington during Trump’s first term, warned Iranian officials that the U.S. leader has little patience for drawn-out negotiations, according to the four sources.
Trump had unexpectedly announced just over a week earlier that direct talks were taking place with Tehran, aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief. He did so in the presence of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had travelled to Washington hoping instead to win support for attacks on Iranian nuclear sites.
In Tehran, Prince Khalid told the group of senior Iranian officials that Trump’s team would want to reach a deal quickly, and the window for diplomacy would close fast, according to the four sources.
The Saudi minister said it would be better to reach a deal with the U.S. than face the possibility of an Israeli attack if the talks broke down, according to the two Gulf sources.
He argued that the region – already riven by recent conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon – could not withstand a further escalation in tensions, said the two Gulf sources and one senior foreign diplomat familiar with the discussions. Mohanad Hage Ali, an expert on Iran at the Carnegie Middle East Center think tank in Beirut, said that Tehran’s weakness had offered Saudi Arabia the opportunity to exert its diplomatic influence, seeking to avoid a regional conflagration. “They want to avoid war because war and confrontation with Iran will have negative implications on them and their economic vision and ambitions,” he told Reuters.

IRAN WANTS A DEAL

Reuters was unable to determine the impact of the prince’s message on Iran’s leadership.
In the meeting, Pezeshkian responded that Iran wanted a deal to ease economic pressure through the lifting of Western sanctions, the four sources said.
However, the Iranian officials, the sources added, expressed concerns over the Trump administration’s “unpredictable” approach to negotiations — which have veered from allowing limited uranium enrichment to demanding the complete dismantling of Tehran’s enrichment program.
Trump also has threatened to use military force if diplomacy fails to rein in the clerical establishment’s nuclear ambitions.
One of the Iranian sources said that Pezeshkian emphasized Tehran’s eagerness to reach a deal but that Iran was not willing to sacrifice its enrichment program just because Trump wanted an agreement. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Iran might pause uranium enrichment if the U.S. releases its frozen funds and recognises its right to refine uranium for civilian use under a “political deal” that could lead to a broader nuclear accord, according to two Iranian sources familiar with the talks. The semi-official Fars news agency in Iran quoted a foreign ministry spokesman denying the report. “President Trump has made it clear: make a deal, or face grave consequences, and the whole world is clearly taking him seriously, as they should,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. Trump said on Wednesday he warned Netanyahu last week not to take any actions that could disrupt nuclear talks with Iran, and said the two sides were “very close to a solution now”.
nn: Time is running out

Israel said to accept Witkoff’s ceasefire proposal…… Hamas: New proposal doesn’t meet our demands

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told hostage families that his government accepted United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff’s proposal for a hostage and Gaza ceasefire deal, Axios correspondent Barak Ravid reported on Thursday, citing a person who attended the meeting. The reporter previously stated that Hamas, on the other hand, was not satisfied with the proposed deal, as the militant group thought the proposal shifted in Israel’s favor. The proposal reportedly does not guarantee that a temporary ceasefire will lead to a permanent one. Netanyahu faced pressure in Israel to accept the deal, as opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the Israeli prime minister of destroying the country’s ties with the US and urged him to immediately accept Witkoff’s proposal for a ceasefire.

Hamas: New proposal doesn’t meet our demands

Senior Hamas official Basem Naim said on Thursday in a statement that the latest ceasefire and hostage deal proposal, put forth by United States Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, doesn’t meet “any of our people’s demands.” “The occupation’s response, in essence, means perpetuating the occupation and continuing the killing and famine [even during the temporary ceasefire],” he commented. Naim added, however, that even with this being the case, the militant group is still “studying the proposal.” Meanwhile, the media reported that the Israeli side accepted the proposed agreement.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

EIA petroleum report for the week ending May 23, 2025

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 440.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending May 23, 2025, which was 162 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.2% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.8 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased by 100 thousand barrels per day last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, increased by 262 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6 million barrels per day, 10.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 755 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 114 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are about 17% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2 million barrels from last week and are 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.7 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels a day, down by 0.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, down by 1.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.3 % compared with the same four-week period last year