BlackMask Breaking News

Oil prices took a sharp turn today as traders weighed President Trump’s latest “maximum pressure” push against Iran. Brent crude rose to $76.34 per barrel (+0.50%), while WTI’s loss from early in the day shrunk to just a 0.31% dropoff at $72.93 per barrel. While a quick glance at today’s oil prices could suggest traders aren’t convinced just yet that the Iran situation could have a profound effect, oil prices are indeed on the rise from their earlier downward trend—a rather quick turn, in fact.

Trump’s plan? Squeeze Iran’s oil exports down to zero—a bold move considering Iran still ships as much as 1.3 million barrels per day, mostly to China.

The White House’s playbook includes fresh sanctions, tighter enforcement, and rolling back existing waivers. Translation: If the administration makes good on these threats, global supply could tighten overnight. The last time Trump went all-in on Iranian sanctions, oil prices spiked north of $80. The market remembers. This time, with Middle East tensions already simmering and OPEC+ struggling to maintain discipline, the upside risk is real. Of course, oil traders are a cynical bunch. They’ve seen this movie before. Crude flows tend to find a way—whether through shady ship-to-ship transfers or creative bookkeeping in Beijing. But if Washington actually gets aggressive with enforcement (hello, secondary sanctions), even China’s appetite for cheap Iranian crude might take a hit. That’s when Brent could break out. For now, the market is playing it cool. But don’t be surprised if crude traders wake up tomorrow and suddenly decide that cutting off a key OPEC producer is, in fact, a big deal. Crude prices were trading down prior to the announcement after China responded to US tariffs on China. WTI was down nearly 3% earlier in the day, with Brent down almost 2%.

Nick Note: well we’ve been having rock and roll fun.  Let me explain what happened. We basically got the upward driver of the market on Friday. The announcement of tariffs hitting  Canadian  oil with a 10% fee. We got an immediate pop to $77.00 Brent…. Only to see the market drop to $74.00 when as expected the Canadian’s caved, We promptly told yo to take profits, If you followed or recoes and doubled up, You are a very happy camper. As we warned you the nest trade Play it  Again Sam came very quickly as the High Frequency Algo candle stick assholes got burned again. So hopefully we will guess lucky again.

Just two days after announcing sweeping sanctions of 25% on almost all Canadian imports as well as all Mexican imports, President Trump promised to pause the implementation of the levies for 30 days following urgent talks with the leaders of the two countries.

Oil markets reacted, with WTI dropping 3.3% and Brent falling 2.3%. Natural gas prices also fell significantly, shedding 5.2% in early trading.

The talks, according to a Reuters report, resulted in commitments by both Canada and Mexico to boost border controls, including deploying more personnel to stem the flow of migrants and stepping up drug traffic control measures. “As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome,” Trump said, adding that he planned to negotiate new trade deals with both Canada and Mexico over the next 30 days. Canada is the biggest supplier of heavy crude to American refiners, exporting it at a rate of close to 4 million barrels daily, which makes it the biggest exporter of crude oil to the U.S. in general. Mexican crude oil exports north of the border are much smaller, at less than half a million barrels daily, but they still comprise the second-largest share of foreign oil in U.S. refiners’ mix. That fact may have played a role in Trump’s willingness to negotiate new trade deals quickly before the tariffs kick in and retaliation begins.

nn: IT AINT OVER

United States Donald Trump’s administration asked Congress to approve an arms sale valued at around $1 billion for Israel, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing US officials familiar with the matter. According to the report, the transfer will include 4,700 1,000-pound bombs, valued at more than $700 million, and Caterpillar Inc.’s armored bulldozers, worth over $300 million. The funds for the arms sale would reportedly come from the billions of dollars in annual military aid provided by the US to Israel. The report of the military hardware transfer comes amid Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Trump in Washington, which is set for tomorrow. According to the report, Netanyahu and other Israeli officials are planning to urge Trump to initiate a separate set of arms transfers, which were previously requested by the Biden administration and which were valued at over $8 billion.

President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a temporary deal Monday evening to halt the imposition of 25% tariffs on each other’s imports for 30 days while a final border security pact gets hashed out. Trump, 78, and Trudeau, 53, spoke on the phone twice Monday before announcing the agreement, with Canada set to ensure 10,000 troops will be stationed at the northern border and the PM vowing to take steps to crack down on fentanyl smuggling. “Canada has agreed to ensure we have a secure Northern Border, and to finally end the deadly scourge of drugs like Fentanyl that have been pouring into our Country,” Trump announced on Truth Social, following the call with Trudeau. “Canada will implement their $1.3 Billion Border plan.” “As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that,” he added. “I am very pleased with this initial outcome.” In a separate post on X, Trudeau indicated that Canada would move ahead with its $1.3 billion border plan after Trump  threatened the 25% duties that were due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday. (Canadian energy products would have been subjected to a lower 10% rate.)

Nick Note: Trudeau is as dumb as he looks and he caved in pretty quick. I guess he scratched his ass and figured out he had no bargaining power.  It’s absolutely absurd that Canada and Mexico think they can fight a tariff war with he US. In Mexico 90% of everything they sell including their drugs goes to America ditto for Canada. These countries have minuscule outside of American markets. Their economies  are in shambles  They  basically sell cheap labor and their mineral resources. They have no alternative to the US market so they have to give trump what he wants.  I might add that Trump’s demands were not unreasonable.  It makes sense to designate the drug lords of Mexico the scourge of mankind terrorists.  Canada allows Latinos from countries that can’t come into the United States  free entry into Canada. Smuggling people and drugs  into the US is a cottage industry in Canada. All they do is  walk them  across the 5000 mile border between Canada and the United States. The drug gangs in Canada are paid well by Mexican the cartels.  America has many alternatives to Canadian oil. Canada does not have any other buyers for the 4 million barrels a day of oil it produces.  It’s been an exciting time don’t you agree?

 NN: Hi,  The Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is not as dumb as she looks. She scratched her ass and figured out she has a BIG problem here. What can I make Trump happy? I know we’ll put the army at the US border. And don’t let the wetbacks\cross the border. Mexico is very smart what are you going to do without America.

Canadians are the dumb shits of the hour. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is drooling on himself…. hello wake up wake up  this is basically a really simple proposition you want the biggest market in the world  to shut you out? Canada has no real military. They’ve got no power, they’ve got no money. They’ve got significant economy. They are really the slaves to the US economy and they know it. Its simple give trump what he wants and life goes on. fight them and you end up with nothing.

International oil and gas prices will see a limited short-term impact from President Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, according to Goldman Sachs. On Saturday, the U.S. Administration announced that additional tariffs would be implemented on February 4 on these countries. Canada and Mexico face 25% tariffs, with Canadian energy slapped with a lower, 10%, tariff. China, for its part, faces an additional 10% tariff across the board.

However, Goldman Sachs expects near-term pain for gasoline prices, especially in the U.S. Midwest, where many refineries rely on Canadian crude. “Canadian oil producers are expected to eventually bear most of the burden of the tariff with a $3 to $4 a barrel wider-than-normal discount on Canadian crude given limited alternative export markets, with U.S. consumers of refined products bearing the remaining $2 to $3 a barrel burden,” the Wall Street bank said. “Canadian oil tariffs would risk unpopular, if temporary, gasoline price increases in the US Midwest,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent note quoted by Bloomberg. Following the tariff announcement, oil prices jumped in Asian trade on Monday. But this kneejerk reaction in the near term could turn into much lower oil prices in the medium term if full-blown trade wars depress economies, analysts say. “While the initial move on crude oil is upward, a cycle of tariffs and retaliatory actions by Canada, Mexico, China and perhaps others in the future could lead to a worldwide recession, causing oil prices to plummet,” Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates told CNBC, commenting on the opening salvo in what could be a new trade war.

NN audio file sanctions hysteria

Summary :   In 2023  based on IOC reports and gathered data, oil production in the Kurdistan Region fell short of 100 million barrels, marking a significant decline from the 158 million barrels produced across all fields in 2022. This represented a staggering 42 percent decrease in oil production and a corresponding 67 percent reduction in revenues compared to the previous year

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that the country will implement “tariff and non-tariff measures in defense of Mexico’s interests” as part of the country’s “plan B” in response to United States President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on Mexican imports.

“We categorically reject the slander made by the White House against the Government of Mexico regarding alleged alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any interventionist intentions in our territory,” Sheinbaum wrote in a post on X, adding that “if such an alliance exists anywhere, it is in the arms depots of the United States, which sell high-powered weapons to these criminal groups, as demonstrated by the US Department of Justice in January of this year.” Additionally she stated that she had “instructed the Secretary of Economy to implement Plan B, which we have been working on, including tariff and non-tariff measures to defend Mexico’s interests.” Earlier, the White House stated, in a post on X, that the US tariffs on Mexico were meant to pressure the country to cooperate with the United States in the fight against drugs.

Trudeau: 25% tariffs on some American goods

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would introduce a 25% tariff on imports coming from the United States in response to United States President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and energy resources. During a press conference, Trudeau said that the Canadian government would be imposing “far-reaching” 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of American goods. Tariffs on “30 billion dollars worth of goods” will start on Tuesday, followed by more tariffs in 21 days “to allow Canadian companies and supply chains to find alternatives.” The tariffs will impact goods such as beer, wine, bourbon, fruits and fruit juices, vegetables, perfumes, clothing and shoes. The prime minister stated that non-tariff measures are being considered related to critical minerals and procurement.

NN: Hi, it is amazing to me how simplistic people are in their thinking process.  Do they not realize that Donald Trump is in a  negotiation session. He’s hitting them hard to soften them up.  Do you really think Canada can stand  up to the United States? Do you really think they can afford to lose the US markets. Is there anything from Canada you got to have except maybe maple syrup. Let’s get real here anything that supplied by Canada can easily replaced by other suppliers. Take timber, the forest lands of Michigan are the same trees exported by Canada into the  US. The Canadian lumber industry  exists because of grennie wennie restrictions on logging on US lands.  Canada will suck shut in a week. Millions will be lose their jobs off.  In Mexico it will be worst. The Mexican economy cannot stand the loses of the US market. Car plants will be closed by week end.  You are talking about people who are a hop skipper and a  jump from starvation. The only home grown business they got are drugs. And the cartels ae not haring. In act they are killing off existing staff.

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