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Trump Vows Tariffs on Oil, Metals and Chips….. Trump to impose oil and gas tariffs by February 18
President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on a wide range of imports in the coming months, including on steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, as well as semiconductors — ramping up his threats to hit trading partners with new levies. He also said that the US would “be doing something very substantial” with tariffs targeting the European Union, in remarks Friday from the Oval Office where he was signing an executive order on deregulation.
Oil rose in late trading after Trump’s comments. West Texas Intermediate advanced to $73.81
Trump also said he was not concerned about warning from economists that tariffs would fuel price growth, a concern for voters which helped propel him back to the White House. “Tariffs don’t cause inflation,” Trump insisted. The president spoke hours after White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump would follow through on his pledge to hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs and a separate 10% levy on goods from China on Saturday. Those tariffs are in response to what Trump says is a failure by those nations to help prevent the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs, like fentanyl, across US borders. Trump has previously pledged sectoral tariffs — on chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum and copper — as a bid to reshape supply chains and force manufacturers to shift production to the US, but had not specified when they would take effect. He has also ordered reports, due April 1, on overall trade issues and tariffs, that could lead him to trigger new levies or to quit the continental trade pact he renegotiated with Canada and Mexico in his first term. And his administration is investigating whether China complied with a trade deal struck in his first term, setting the stage for tariffs against the world’s second largest economy. All those measures highlight how Trump is moving in his second term to enact a key plank of his trade agenda — remaking the US economy by imposing tariffs on a wide range of imports and on US allies and adversaries alike. Economists warn tariffs would raise the cost of imported materials used by US manufacturers, hike prices for American consumers already uneasy about inflation, and reduce global trade flows. Nevertheless, the US president is an avowed believer in tariffs, insisting that they will bring about a renaissance in domestic manufacturing. And he has touted tariffs as a source of revenue as he seeks to renew and expand expiring tax cuts and approve a host of other credits and benefit
Trump to impose oil and gas tariffs by February 18
United States President Donald Trump told the press on Friday that new tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and energy imports will be imposed,
with oil and gas tariffs set to take effect by February 18. Trump emphasized the move as a strategy to reduce trade deficits while mentioning his intention to bring pharmaceutical production back to the US.
Asked about today’s report that he will delay the imposition of tariffs to March 1, the president dismissed any possibility of China, Canada, or Mexico avoiding the new tariffs, stating, “Nothing can be done” to prevent them. Moreover, he accused China of “taking hundreds of billions of dollars” from the US before his presidency and criticized the European Union and Canada for unfair trade practices. He also suggested that tariffs could increase further.
NN this is a long one
I have many ways to talk to you to communicate with you. I try to choose what’s the best way to covey mission critical information to you. We have a very important event that occurred at the market close on Friday concerning our oil trade. I’ve decided to do a lengthy Nick Note in this breaking news story. I’m going to follow up in a BlackMask Market Update a detailed trade strategy as I collect my thought and tap my sources. I will produce this file over the weekend. In the mean time allow me to tell you what i now so far about Trump’s announced coming tariffs of 10% on China, and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. There’s a lot of confusion in the marketplace about what products these tariffs will include, When they will be imposed and at what percentages. Of particular interest to us are the announced tariffs on oil. On Friday their was a lot of confusing and inaccurate reporting. And we saw a lot of market gyrations. Let me give you what we know so far. Trump announced as of February 18th he is going to put a 10% tariff on Canadian Oil imports into the United States. Most of the Canadian oil flowing to the US is Western Canadian Select. Which is mostly produced in Alberta and is from the vast oil sands deposit. Canadian oil imports are 3.5 million barrels per day. Most is delivered to the northern Midwest refineries. I want to look at the price first. The most recent high was set on January 16th when Brent hit $81 a barrel. Western Canadian Select hit $66 a barrel. As you can see WCA trades at a discount because its landlocked not a lot of buyers and it’s a a bitter or sour heavy crude. A lot of refineries can’t take this messy crude. I have posted a chart below of the most recent price action after the $ 66 peak and before trump’s announcement of tariffs. The last shipments came in a $60.38 a barrel.
The 10% tariff if even instituted and passed down to the buyers takes you back to $66 a barrel. Some players believe that means Brent Crude oil is going back to $81 a barrel. A simplistic assessment at best. The next chart shows you daily US domestics oil consumption.
The US consumes a little bit south of 20 million barrels a day of crude. Off its 2019 peek. Which means that the Canadian Oil represents at best only 20% of the US market. So do the math a 10% increase in price of 20% of the total oil consumed translates into $2.50 increase at the most of the total market. That takes you to at best $77.50 Bent off the pre tariff lows of $74.87 at the end of January. And we closed at $76.30 on Friday. If you factor in Algo trader hysteria at most you’re looking at is a potential $5 a barrel temporary increase in price. I want to short the shit out of that action. And Canada cannot afford a self imposed embargo on its oil exports. They will fold faster then a pair of duces against 3 aces. All they got to do is shut down the border crossing of illegals’ and bust the Fentanyl smugglers.
Canada vows retaliation if Trump imposes tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Friday that if US President Donald Trump chooses to implement any tariff affecting Canada, the country will be ready to respond similarly. In a Council on Canada-US Relations meeting, the prime minister stressed that any Canadian response would be “purposeful, forceful, and immediate,” indicating that all options are considered. He highlighted that such US tariffs could increase costs for American consumers, particularly in sectors like oil, automotive, and agriculture.
Trump May Exclude Oil From Canada and Mexico Tariffs
President Donald Trump may exclude crude oil from the tariff shock he is preparing to deliver to Canada and Mexico this Sunday. The tariffs are Trump’s way to strong-arm the U.S. neighbors into stemming the flow of fentanyl into the country.
“They send us oil — we’ll see,” Trump told media on Thursday evening, as quoted by the Financial Times. “It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t.”
In separate comments earlier in the week, however, Trump said “We don’t need the products that they have. We have all the oil that you need.” Canada and Mexico are the biggest suppliers of crude oil to the United States, with Canadian exports close to 4 million barrels daily and Mexican exports around 730,000 barrels daily. Because of the prominence of both as trading partners in energy many analysts have argued that Trump’s threats are only a tactic to get Mexico and Canada to take care of immigration and fentanyl smuggling. “We’ll be announcing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a number of reasons,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “Number one is the people that have poured into our country so horribly and so much. Number two are the drugs fentanyl and everything else that have come into the country. Number three are the massive subsidies that we’re giving to Canada and to Mexico in the form of deficits.”
Another reason Trump is likely to exclude oil from the tariffs is the fact that if he goes ahead and doesn’t, this would affect retail fuel prices in the United States and it will not be a favorable effect. One of Trump’s campaign promises was to bring prices at the pump down, so tariffing Canadian and Mexican crude would go against this promise.
BlackMask podcast has been posted Titled: Trump’s Oil Tariffs
Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada
United States President Donald Trump told journalists on Thursday that his administration will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada.The announcement came just days after the White House suggested that new trade restrictions were under consideration. The tariffs are set to take effect on February 1. The president also said he will decide tonight on tariffs for oil imports from Mexico and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada have announced retaliatory measures in case the US imposes such tariffs. Nevertheless, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum revealed this week that she does not believe the US will impose tariffs on her country.
NN: the art of the deal. negotiations have begun
Trump Keeps World Waiting on Tariffs, Tries to Hash Out a Plan
- President surprised many by not imposing tariffs right away
- His team is still debating basic questions like who to charge
President Donald Trump’s tariff plans are the great unknown in the global economy right now — and it’s partly because his team is still trying to figure out what to do. Tariffs were so central to Trump’s victorious election campaign that trade experts, and even some of his allies, were surprised when they went missing in action during his first days back in the White House. The president threatened new duties on Mexico, Canada and China – but he didn’t actually impose any, even as he was taking steps to speed energy production, curb immigration and reshape the federal workforce. Instead, Trump’s Day One trade memo instructed his team to study unfair trade practices globally, and investigate whether Beijing had complied with a 2020 deal. A sharp turn to protectionism in the US has the potential to upend economies and markets everywhere, so governments, businesses and investors around the world are desperate for a roadmap. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell captured the uncertainty at his press conference on Wednesday, saying that the range of possible tariff impacts is “very, very wide.” But Trump’s slower-than-expected rollout stems from unresolved questions within the new administration, according to people briefed on the internal deliberations. The Trump team is still debating the fundamentals of tariff policy — like whether the taxes should be imposed across the board or targeted at specific countries and industries, and whether they should be reciprocal. Along with a lack of consensus among the administration’s economic team, they’re also short key staff. Most nominees are still awaiting Senate confirmation. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick to be Commerce secretary, and Jamieson Greer, the nominee to be trade representative, may not be confirmed for several weeks, and there are few political appointees at either agency. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has told allies that his number one priority in 2025 is passing a sweeping tax package. All of this means that tariff discussions are currently taking place among a small circle of advisers already at the White House, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, trade adviser Peter Navarro and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the people said.
On the campaign trail, Trump said he’d use tariffs to raise revenue, slash America’s trade deficit and bring industry back to the country. He promised a 10% to 20% charge on all imported goods, as well as tariffs as high as 60% for China. Since his November election win, he’s also threatened a 25% tax on products from Canada and Mexico, the two biggest US trade partners. On the universal tariffs and the ones slated for China, the Trump team is not close at all to making a decision, according to people briefed on the discussions. For Canada and Mexico, Trump set a deadline of Feb. 1, and trade experts anticipate that he’ll announce the promised tariffs around that date. But because they’re unlikely to take effect for up to two weeks after an announcement, both countries would theoretically have time to negotiate with the White House, cave to Trump’s demands — he wants tighter curbs on the flow of people and drugs across borders –- and avoid the tariffs altogether.It’s a key question about Trump’s trade plans more broadly: How many of the tariffs he floats are really intended as bargaining chips to help achieve other goals?
Lutnick Says Trump Tariffs Will Restore US Economy, Respect
- Commerce Secretary pick prefers levies ‘across-the-board’
- Says tariffs will make trade more fair and aren’t inflationary
Howard Lutnick, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, offered a detailed defense of tariffs in his confirmation hearing, the clearest signal yet from a cabinet pick that the new administration is prepared to impose the levies on allies and adversaries alike.
The Wall Street veteran, appearing before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, detailed several goals he expects tariffs to achieve, from bolstering national security to restoring American manufacturing and supply chains. He also called them an effective negotiating tactic that will force other countries to again “respect” the US. Lutnick brushed aside worries that tariffs would drive inflation higher as “nonsense,” while conceding prices of some products might go up. Asked if US tariff policy would distinguish between friends and foes, he said China should face the stiffest duties overall but that allies won’t be spared. “I think Chinese tariffs should be the highest, our adversaries should be the highest,” Lutnick said. “But the fact that we Americans cannot sell an American car in Europe is just wrong and it needs to be fixed.” “They are taking advantage of us, they are disrespecting us and I would like to see that end,” he said.The reception Lutnick got from Republicans and many Democrats suggest he’ll clear the Senate without much trouble. Vice President JD Vance introduced Lutnick, calling him “a good dude” who can reverse stagnating wages. The hearing ranged across several topics, given Commerce’s oversight of everything from the country’s wireless telecommunications spectrum to weather forecasting and fisheries management, as well as promoting US businesses overseas. Senators also focused on Lutnick’s financial firm holdings, which he pledged to divest from, as well as Cantor’s association with Tether Holdings Ltd., a stablecoin firm that’s been linked to illicit activity. Lutnick was also grilled on export controls and semiconductor manufacturing, two related battlegrounds of the US-China race to dominate next-generation technology.
| For instance, the president’s threat of 25% duties on Canada and Mexico as soon as Feb. 1 is a short-term tactic related narrowly to migration and fentanyl issues along their borders with the US, which he said they both can avoid if they “execute.” His comments on a possible reprieve sent oil prices lower as Canada is a large supplier to the US. |
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The Cantor Fitzgerald LP chief executive, who Trump tapped to lead his “tariff and trade agenda” differentiated between tariff uses, adding that some are possible to avoid if countries bend to Washington’s demands. “If we are your biggest trading partner, show us the respect, shut your border,” he said. “And as far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff. And if they don’t, then there will be.” But he also said he favors longer-term goals that reset trade ties and drive manufacturing back to the US, including an endorsement of “across-the-board” tariffs on a “country-by-country” basis. “We are treated horribly by the global trading environment,” he said, echoing Trump’s grievance about unfair practices by America’s biggest trading partners. How much influence Lutnick will have on White House policies is unclear, as he’ll be competing for Trump’s attention with other advisors, such China hawk Peter Navarro, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump has ordered several studies of overall trade issues and tariffs by April 1, which Lutnick described as part of the White House’s broader approach. Lutnick also circled back to tariffs when asked about export controls on semiconductors to China and the breakthrough of China-based DeepSeek’s open-source AI model. “What this showed is that our export controls, not backed by tariffs, are like a whack-a-mole model,” Lutnick said. “We’ve got to find a way to back our export controls with tariff model. I do not believe that DeepSeek was done all above board. That’s nonsense.”Trump has pledged three broad buckets of tariffs, though it’s not yet clear whether, when and at what scale they’ll be implemented. In addition to threats against Mexico, Canada and China, Trump has pledged tariffs on particular sectors, including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum and copper. He has also mused about a universal tariff as high as 20% hitting all imports, though he hasn’t specified a target. Lutnick also singled out Canada’s dairy system as an example of a problem he wants to address. “Canada, as we spoke about, treats our dairy farmers horribly,” Lutnick told Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat from the dairy producing battleground state of Wisconsin. “That’s got to end.
WTI Slips Below $73 as Canada-Mexico Tariff Uncertainty Grows
Oil fell after President Donald Trump’s pick for commerce secretary suggested tariffs on Canada and Mexico aren’t a done deal. West Texas Intermediate slid 1.6% to settle below $73 a barrel after Howard Lutnick said that the US’s two biggest trading partners can avoid new levies if they take action on illegal migration and fentanyl flows. Expectations that the tariffs will go into effect this weekend had earlier spurred a rally in oil futures and briefly pushed the discount for Canadian crude to the widest in six months, before narrowing after Lutnick’s remarks. “Crude prices keep dancing to the rhythm of Trump’s tariff orchestra, with Canada tariffs in focus as they go into effect on Saturday,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. Wednesday’s price decline represents “a sour sentiment across an overall rangebound market,” he added. Crude started 2025 higher as US sanctions against Russia lifted prices, but trade-war concerns and poor economic data from China have largely erased the year’s gains. The rollout of Trump’s policy agenda has the potential to roil markets further, with the US president calling on OPEC+ to help lower crude prices. The producer cartel is set to discuss Trump’s plans to increase US oil production at its next meeting on Feb. 3, Tass reported, citing Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almassadam Satkaliyev. Traders also digested a more hawkish-than-anticipated decision by the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady, dimming the outlook for oil demand.
NN audio file: Lower oil prices is the primary directive
Chinese, Iranian hackers said to use US AI tech for cyberattacks…..Soon They Will Use Quantum Computers
Hackers that have ties with Beijing and Tehran, as well as other foreign governments, are utilizing artificial intelligence tools from the United States to boost cyberattacks not just against Washington but the rest of the world as well, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday citing US officials and latest security research. Numerous hacker groups in 2024 used Google LLC’s Gemini chabot to help them write malicious codes and search for cyber vulnerabilities already known to the public, the tech giant’s experts shared, adding that the tool also assisted these groups in search of specific companies that could be targeted. Google added that the perpetrators are known to have links with China, Iran, Russia and North Korea. “AI is not yet a panacea for threat actors and may actually be a far more important tool for defenders. The real impact here is they are gaining some efficiency. They can operate faster and scale up,” Google Vice President of Threat Intelligence Sandra Joyce commented.
Chinese, Iranian hackers Soon Will Use Quantum Computers
Chinese researchers at Shanghai University say they’ve inched towards cracking military-grade encryption — with the help of a quantum computer. In a Chinese language paper published late last month in the Chinese Journal of Computers, the researchers claim they were able to use one of D-Wave’s off-the-shelf quantum computers to attack Substitution-Permutation Networks (SPNs), classical cryptography algorithms employed in widely-used encryption standards. As Tom’s Hardware reports, the paper delineates two distinct methodologies, both rooted in D-Wave’s quantum annealing algorithm. SPNs are used in algorithms tasked with protecting sensitive institutions including militaries and banks — meaning that, if the researcher’s claims are true, their findings could force institutions to revisit their cybersecurity measures.
Experts have long warned that quantum computers, which work in a fundamentally different way than conventional ones, could soon break encryption standards that keep highly classified information from the prying eyes of hackers. The latest research suggests the tech is making strides towards such an eventuality.
According to the hackers’ paper, their findings represent “the first time that a real quantum computer has posed a real and substantial threat to multiple full-scale SPN structured algorithms in use today,” as quoted by The South China Morning Post.
API for the week ending January 24, 2025
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 24, 2025
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ending January 24, 2025, which was 333 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 83.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.7 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 297 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 3.6% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 634 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 182 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 5.0 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 7.9 million barrels from last week and are 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 13.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, up by 2.5% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.3 million barrels a day, up by 1.8 % from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 6.9% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 4.5% compared with the same four