The consumer confidence indicator in the euro area and the entire European Union in December 2024 went down by 0.7 and 1 percentage points, reaching negative 14.5 and negative 13.4 respectively, the European Commission shared in its final report on Wednesday. Both figures were in line with the preliminary readings. NN: Makes it hard to see with deep slow down coming where the EU will import more oil.
Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China…..German factory orders down 5.4% in November
Investors in China’s $11 trillion government bond market have never been so pessimistic about the world’s second-largest economy, with some now piling into bets on a deflationary spiral mirroring Japan’s in the 1990s. Yields on Chinese sovereign bonds maturing in 10 years have tumbled in recent weeks to all-time lows, creating an unprecedented 300-basis-point gap with US peers, despite a slew of economic stimulus measures announced by President Xi Jinping’s government. The plunge, which has dragged Chinese yields far below levels reached during the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, underscores growing concern that policymakers will fail to stop China from sliding into an economic malaise that could last decades.
If the bond market is right, the implications would be profound. An extended bout of deflation would hobble one of the world’s biggest economic growth engines, add new strains on social stability in the second-most populous country and exacerbate capital outflows that led to a record exodus from Chinese financial markets at the end of last year.
In a sign of how seriously investors are taking the risk of Japanification, China’s 10 largest brokerages have all produced research on the neighboring country’s lost decades. Richard Koo, an economist well-known for drawing parallels between the two countries, said he has been approached by Chinese companies and think tanks to share his views. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week said Japan’s case offers a “valuable playbook” for Chinese stock investors who’ve been rattled by the worst start to a year in nearly a decade. While an echo of post-bubble Japan is far from certain, the similarities are hard to ignore. Both countries suffered from a real estate crash, weak private investment, tepid consumption, a massive debt overhang and a rapidly aging population. Even investors who point to China’s tighter control over the economy as a reason for optimism worry that officials have been slow to act more forcefully. One clear lesson from Japan: Reviving growth becomes increasingly difficult the longer authorities wait to stamp out pessimism among investors, consumers and businesses. “It’s a downward spiral that will keep getting worse if it’s not corrected,” said Xin-Yao Ng, a Singapore-based investment director at abrdn Plc, which oversees $494 billion globally. “There’s a psychological element to Japan’s lessons where the longer this persists, the weaker business and consumer confidence gets.” China’s markets have entered 2025 on a knife edge. With the benchmark 10-year yield falling below 1.6% for the first time, pundits have floated the once-unthinkable prospect of yields near zero. The CSI 300 Index of equities lost 3.5% in the first four sessions of the year, while the offshore yuan is trading near a record low — prompting authorities to push back against declines this week. NN: Makes it hard to see with deep slow down coming where China will import more oil.
German factory orders down 5.4% in November
Seasonally and price-adjusted new factory orders in Germany fell by 5.4% in November compared to the previous month, the country’s Federal Statistical Office Destatis revealed in its report on Wednesday. New orders declined by 1.7% compared to the same month in the previous year. Domestic orders rose by 3.8% in the reported month compared to October, while foreign orders dropped by 10.8%. New orders from the euro area decreased by 3.8%, while orders from outside the Eurozone tumbled by 14.8%. According to the report, the main contributor to the decrease in factory orders in November was a sharp fall of 58.4% in orders for other vehicle construction, including aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles, due to October orders in this sector not materializing. Meanwhile, new orders for intermediate goods increased by 1.8% in November month-on-month, while the orders for consumer goods and capital goods were down by 7.1% and 9.4%, respectively. NN: Makes it hard to see with deep slow down coming where Germany/EU will import more oil.
Crude Draw, Major Jump in Fuel Inventories…… WTI Climbs as US Freeze Fuels Demand
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United fell by 4.022 million barrels for the week ending January 3. Analysts had expected a 250,000 barrel draw. For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 1.442-million-barrel in U.S. crude oil inventories in the midst of build season. In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. Brent crude was trading at $77.49— the same price as this time last year. U.S. WTI was trading at $74.70 at 1:30 AM est. Surprising Gasoline inventories rose this week by 7.331 million barrels after last week’s 2.163-million-barrel increase. As of last week, gasoline inventories are slightly above the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose by 3.201 million barrels, after last week’s large 5.719-million-barrel increase. Distillate inventories were about 6% below the five-year average as of the week ending December 27, the latest EIA data shows. Cushing inventories—the benchmark crude stored and traded at the key delivery point for U.S. futures contracts in Cushing, Oklahoma—fell by 3.115 million barrels, according to API data, after increasing by 305,000 barrels in the previous week.
WTI Climbs as US Freeze Fuels Demand
Oil pushed higher as a cold front in the US and signs of a tighter market countered technical signals that crude’s rally may be overdone. West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 1% to settle above $74.92 a barrel, buoyed by frigid weather in the US that’s boosting demand for heating fuel and increasing the risk of freeze-offs in production areas. Adding to signs of a tighter supply-demand balance, Middle Eastern oil markets have been firmer in recent weeks as refiners in China sought alternatives to Iranian and Russian crude. At the same time Russian data show that its oil production was below its OPEC+ output target last month, another sign of limited supplies. Meanwhile in China, ports in the eastern province of Shandong, the top destination for Iranian crude, were urged to prevent US-sanctioned tankers from docking at their berths. Crude markets have witnessed a robust start to the year as a result of technical buying after prices broke out of a months long range. Still, the relative strength index shows prices are trading at overbought levels, a reading that indicates crude was due for a pullback, and many analysts continue to warn of an oversupply later in the year. “Whilst renewed strength cannot be ruled out in the immediate future should freezing temperatures persist, the sudden change in sentiment yesterday afternoon insinuates that a protracted rally will be difficult to sustain without fundamental changes in economic prospects or the global oil balance,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokerage PVM.
NN: this is a sell
Trump answers questions about Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal, Gulf of Mexico
President-elect Donald Trump held his second pre-inauguration press conference from Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday. Trump called the press conference to announce a major investment in data centers in the United States, and discussed a wide range of topics when taking questions from reporters. During the question and answer portion, Trump refused to rule out the use of military force to try to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland. Trump also addressed several foreign affairs, including Ukraine’s war with Russia and the latest on a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. The former president will be inaugurated for his second term on January 20.
Trump vows to reverse Biden’s offshore drilling ban
United States President-elect Donald Trump vowed on Tuesday to “immediately” reverse current President Joe Biden’s ban on offshore drilling. Speaking at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Trump insisted Biden’s action “will not stand” and added that “we will drill, baby drill.” He asserted that the move will also bring energy prices “way down” to a “very low level.” Earlier this week, Biden announced a decision to ban any upcoming offshore oil and natural gas drilling along the East and West coasts of the US.
Trump: All hell will break out if Hamas doesn’t return hostages
United States President-elect Donald Trump claimed on Tuesday that “all hell will break out in the Middle East” if a deal for Hamas to return hostages isn’t reached before he assumes office on January 21. Trump insisted that Hamas should have returned the hostages a long time ago, or not even taken them. Insisting that “all hell will break out” if the hostages are not returned within the next two weeks, Trump stressed such a situation “will not be good for Hamas and it will not be good, frankly, for anyone.” The US president-elect noted his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has been in negotiations about a hostage deal and Witkoff noted he is probably flying back to Qatar tonight to continue the talks. NN: Hamas are you listing
How China Is Building More Nuclear Power Than Anyone Else in the World
In the US right now, there is a lot of talk about a so-called “nuclear revival.” But it remains to be seen whether we’ll see a meaningful uptick in actual power generation, from either new reactors, or old reactors getting a restart. Meanwhile, in China, nuclear construction is full steam ahead. In the last decade, China has built 37 nuclear reactors, and several more are coming down the pipe.e. The transcript has been lightly edited for clarity. China has added 37 nuclear reactors according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. The US has added two.
Nuclear is the cheapest energy source know to man:
With a complete combustion or fission, approx.
8 kWh of heat can be generated from 1 kg of coal, approx.
12 kWh from 1 kg of oil and around
24,000,000 kWh from 1 kg of uranium-235.
Related to one kilogram, uranium-235 contains two to three million times the energy equivalent of oil or coal.
The illustration shows how much coal, oil or natural uranium is required for a certain quantity of electricity. Thus, 1 kg natural uranium – following a corresponding enrichment and used for power generation in light water reactors – corresponds to nearly 10,000 kg of oil or 14,000 kg of coal and enables the generation of 45,000 kWh of electricity.
The cost of 1 enriched uranium pellet (UO2) Uranium dioxide is $40 and weighs 10 grams. The energy generated by the fission of a single uranium pellet is equivalent to: 1 ton of coal or; 120 gallons of crude oil or; 17,000 ft 3 of natural gas; With about 17 million British Thermal Units (BTU) worth of energy in a uranium pellet,
US, allies carry out operations against ISIS in Iraq, Syria
United States Central Command (CENTCOM) and its partner forces conducted joint operations in Iraq and Syria to fight the Islamic State (ISIS), the US military said in a statement on Monday. The military operations, carried out from December 30 to January 6, were conducted in cooperation with Iraqi forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and targeted ISIS sites in the Hamrin mountains of Iraq and near Dayr az-Zawr in Syria. “Partnered operations like these are critical to maintaining pressure on ISIS and preventing the terrorist group from taking advantage of the rapidly changing security environment in the region. The enduring defeat of ISIS is a global effort that relies on our Coalition, allies, and partners. U.S. Central Command remains committed to aggressively pursuing these terrorists that threaten the region, our allies, and our citizens,” CENTCOM Commander Michael Erik Kurilla stated.
Biden bans new oil, gas drilling in US coastal waters…… Trump: Biden ‘doing everything’ to hinder transition
Outgoing United States President Joe Biden announced on Monday his decision to prohibit any upcoming offshore oil and natural gas drilling along the East and West coasts of the United States, the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the North Bering Sea in Alaska. This decision affects a total of 625 million acres of American oceanic territory. “My decision reflects what coastal communities, businesses and beachgoers have known for a long time: that drilling off these coasts could cause irreversible damage to places we hold dear and is unnecessary to meet our nation’s energy needs,” Biden said in a statement. “As the climate crisis continues to threaten communities across the country and we are transitioning to a clean energy economy, now is the time to protect these coasts for our children and grandchildren,” he added. This initiative marks the most recent move in a series of last-minute environmental policies from the Biden administration prior to the return of US President-elect Donald Trump to office. Throughout his campaign, Trump vowed to significantly boost domestic fossil fuel output to reduce gas prices. NN: This is not the big deal it may seem on first blush. It will be easily overturned in the reconciliation bill. its another example of the anti American wok dope gay liberal Islamic lefties that Trump is rescuing not just America but the world from…… not a moment to soon.
Trump: Biden ‘doing everything’ to hinder transition
United States President-elect Donald Trump on Monday accused outgoing President Joe Biden of obstructing the transition of power.
“Biden is doing everything possible to make the TRANSITION as difficult as possible, from Lawfare such as has never been seen before, to costly and ridiculous Executive Orders on the Green New Scam and other money wasting Hoaxes,” Trump said in a post on his social network Truth Social, adding that these orders will soon be revoked.
Trump’s remarks come shortly after a joint session of Congress convened to certify his electoral college win over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.
Hamas says it agreed to release 34 Israeli hostages
Hamas said on Sunday that it agreed to free 34 Israeli hostages it has been holding in Gaza since October 7, 2023. The release would be the first phase of a prisoner exchange deal, a Hamas official told the AFP. However, Israel denied the Palestinian organization’s claim. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the Israeli government has not yet received a list of hostages. Meanwhile, Channel 12 reported Hamas has sent a list but has not indicated which hostages are still alive. The Saudi newspaper al-Sharq released on Monday what it alleges to be a list of the 34 hostages slated for release in the initial stage of a possible agreement for a ceasefire and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas. This list reportedly comprises two children, 10 women, 11 elderly men, and 11 men under the age of fifty. The report mentions that an official from the militant group claims it could take approximately a week to assess the status of each hostage. However, Hamas has declined to confirm which individuals on this list are still alive. Earlier reports suggested that discussions concerning the hostage swap and ceasefire agreement were being renewed in Qatar. Part of these negotiations includes talks about Israel providing immunity to all Hamas leaders, albeit with the condition that they would be exiled to a different nation.