Oil Rises as Crude Inventories Continue to Draw

 

Crude oil prices moved higher today, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory dip of 2 million barrels for the second week of the year. The change estimated by the EIA compared with a modest draw of around 1 million barrels for the previous week, which also saw sizable builds in fuel inventories that dragged oil prices lower. For the week to January 10, the EIA estimated an inventory build of 5.9 million in gasoline, with production averaging 9.3 million barrels daily. This compared with a build of as much as 6.3 million barrels for the previous week, when production averaged 8.9 million barrels daily. That build was the second sizable weekly one, after 2024 ended with a build of 7.7 million barrels in gasoline inventories. In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory increase of 3.1 million barrels for the week to January 10, with production at an average 5.2 million barrels daily. The numbers compared with a build of 6.1 million barrels for the first week of the month and the year, when production averaged 5.2 million barrels. Even with the recent series of builds in fuels, however, both gasoline and middle distillate stocks remained below the five-year average for this time of the year, the EIA noted in consecutive weekly reports. Oil prices, meanwhile, took a dip earlier in the week after the EIA released the latest edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook saying global supply would exceed demand both this year and next.

Based on that forecast, the EIA projected the average 2025 price for Brent crude at $74 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate seen at an average $70 per barrel in 2025.

For its forecast, the EIA assumed that OPEC+ would roll back its production cuts and that non-OPEC production would continue leaping forward. The market, meanwhile, seems more preoccupied with the effect of the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia, which could curb global oil supply by close to 1 million barrels daily. Apparently, traders don’t currently share the EIA’s expectations of excess supply.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 10, 2025

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 412.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending January 10, 2025, which was 255 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 304 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 3.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 450 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 219 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.9 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from last week and are 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, up by 0.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 5.8% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 6.4% compared with the same four week period last year

Final draft of Gaza truce deal presented to sides after ‘breakthrough’, official says

  • After midnight ‘breakthrough’ officials say deal closer than ever
  • Biden says sides on the “brink” of a deal
  • Trump envoy Witkoff attends talks, official says
  • Trump inauguration seen in region as de facto deadline
DOHA/CAIRO, Jan 13 (Reuters) – Mediators gave Israel and Hamas a final draft of a deal on Monday to end the war in Gaza, an official briefed on the negotiations said, after a midnight “breakthrough” in talks attended by envoys of both outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump. Biden said a ceasefire and hostage release deal he had championed was on “the brink” of coming to fruition and Hamas said it was keen on reaching an agreement. “The deal … would free the hostages, halt the fighting, provide security to Israel and allow us to significantly surge humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians who suffered terribly in this war that Hamas started,” Biden said in a speech to highlight his foreign policy achievements. The official briefed on the talks, who did not want to be otherwise identified, said the text for a ceasefire and release of hostages was presented by Qatar to both sides at talks in Doha, which included the chiefs of Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet spy agencies and Qatar’s prime minister. Another round of talks is planned in Doha on Tuesday morning to finalise remaining details, with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Biden’s envoy Brett McGurk expected to attend, as they had on Monday, the official said. An Israeli official said negotiations were in advanced stages for the release of up to 33 hostages as part of the deal. The Hamas delegation in Doha issued a statement after a meeting with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani saying talks were progressing well.
 Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters the negotiations were at a “pivotal” point, with gaps between two sides slowly getting removed. “I think there is a good chance we can close this … the parties are right on the cusp of being able to close this deal,” he said.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the sides were “closer than we’ve ever been” to a deal, and the ball was in Hamas’ court. “We are very hopeful that we get it over the finish line, finally after all this time,” he told MSNBC, adding that the proposed deal was based on a framework Biden put out in May. Blinken said negotiators wanted to make sure Trump would continue to back the deal on the table so Witkoff’s participation has been “critical.” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionism party, a hardline nationalist party which has opposed previous attempts at a deal, said all its members would oppose a deal that didn’t achieve Hamas’ “destruction” and the latest proposal endangered Israel’s national security.

Hegseth: I support Israel destroying Hamas

Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary nominee, declared on Tuesday his support for Israel in “destroying” and “killing” every last member of Hamas. Addressing disruptions during his Senate confirmation hearing, where protesters accused him of being a Zionist, the defense secretary nominee stressed his support for Israel’s “existential defense” and Washington’s commitment to safeguarding it. “We will responsibly end wars to ensure that we prioritize our resources to reorient to larger threats,” Hegseth underlined while outlining his agenda if confirmed as defense secretary. NN: Finally the US military will be commanded by a man with a hairy set of balls. BYE by fagots and woke jokes

Israel, Hamas agree in principle to truce deal draft

A preliminary agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza, along with the release of hostages, has been tentatively reached. Should everything proceed smoothly, Israel and Hamas are expected to finalize the arrangement this week, according to statements from Arab, US and Israeli officials shared with CBS News. US and regional insiders indicate that if the remaining specifics receive approval and the Israeli government endorses it soon after, the deal’s execution could commence by this weekend, the media added. Previously, the Wall Street Journal noted that the involved parties were ironing out the last aspects of a ceasefire accord for Gaza, potentially ready for announcement as early as today.

Oil Prices Stable After Bearish EIA Report

Crude oil prices remained stable today after dipping on Tuesday following the release of the Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

In the outlook, the EIA predicted weaker oil prices this year and next, citing expectations that OPEC will roll back its production cuts and non-OPEC oil producers will continue raising their output at intensive rates.

As a result, Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate dipped on Tuesday, only to rebound later, with Brent crude returning above $80 per barrel and WTI inching closer to $79 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at $80.17 per barrel, with WTI at $77.88 per barrel. In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expected global oil production to add 1.8 million barrels daily this year and another 1.5 million barrels daily in 2026. In the United States, the EIA expects only a modest increase in oil production, from 13.2 million bpd last year to 13.5 million bpd, inching further up even more slowly in 2026, to 13.6 million barrels daily. The Permian will continued to be the driver of U.S. oil production growth, coming to account for more than half of the national total next year. In other plays, however, production is set to begin declining, the EIA said Consumption, however, is set to underwhelm, according to the EIA, with growth this year seen at 1.3 million barrels daily, or 200,000 bpd lower than projected production growth. This rate of growth will slow down further next year, the EIA predicted, to just 1.1 million bpd, led by Asia and specifically India. Not everyone is this gloomy on oil, however. For starters, the EIA itself noted that its forecast was compiled before the federal government slapped the latest sanctions on the Russian oil industry. These sanctions are widely seen as potentially curbing Russian oil exports, and as a result boosting prices by eliminating any surplus supply 0n the global market.

Netanyahu: Gaza deal matter of days or hours

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated Tuesday that the ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza is a matter of “days or hours” as reported by Channel 12. The prime minister further explained that Israel is currently waiting for Hamas to respond to the agreement draft, adding that his condition for a permanent ceasefire is the safe return of all hostages. At the same time, Netanyahu stressed that the agreement will have several stages. He revealed that negotiations regarding the second stage will begin on January 16.

Russia Intent On Defying New U.S. Sanctions on Its Oil Industry

  • The outgoing U.S. Administration on Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet.
  • Russia: new U.S. sanctions risk destabilising global markets.
  • The sanctions have already started moving oil markets and the oil-purchasing strategies in Russia’s top crude oil customers, China and India.

Russia has slammed the new hefty U.S. sanctions on its oil industry and exports and vowed to move forward with major domestic oil and gas projects, claiming that it remains “a key and reliable player in the global fuel market.” The outgoing U.S. Administration on Friday slapped the most severe sanctions on Russia’s oil yet, designating two major Russian oil companies, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels, dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials. The sanctions on the oil companies are the first direct designations against Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, which were sanctioned by the UK on the same day, too, as “the profits from these 2 companies are lining Putin’s war chest and facilitating the war,” as the UK government said. The latest sanctions are also cutting off Russia’s access to U.S. services related to the extraction and production of crude oil and other petroleum products. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen commented that “With today’s actions, we are ratcheting up the sanctions risk associated with Russia’s oil trade, including shipping and financial facilitation in support of Russia’s oil exports.” In response to the sanctions, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that the U.S. move “represents an attempt to inflict damage on the Russian economy at any cost, even at the risk of destabilising global markets. This move comes in the waning days of President Joe Biden’s lacklustre tenure in office.” “Naturally, Washington’s hostile actions will not go unanswered and will be taken into account as we shape our foreign economic strategy,” Russia said, adding that “Major domestic projects for oil and gas extraction, import substitution, oilfield services, and the construction of nuclear power plants in third countries will continue to move forward.” The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement concluded with “Despite the convulsions in the White House and the manoeuvres of the Russophobic lobby in the West, seeking to drag the global energy sector into the US-initiated hybrid war against Russia, our country remains, and will continue to be, a key and reliable player in the global fuel market.” The sanctions have already started moving oil markets and the oil-purchasing strategies in Russia’s top crude oil customers, China and India. Oil prices jumped on Friday as the U.S. sanctions were announced, and Brent Crude broke above $80 per barrel to hit the highest level in three months. Indian refiners expect their supply of cheaper Russian crude to be severely crippled with the latest sanctions, refining sources in India told Reuters on Friday. India is now bracing for a major disruption to Russian oil supply, which is currently the single largest source of crude for the world’s third-largest oil importer. Alongside India, China could also lose a part of its cheap Russian crude supply, analysts say. “When it comes to buyers, China and India, in general, tend to steer clear of dealing directly with tankers and entities blacklisted by the US Treasury,” Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, wrote in a note. The newly sanctioned tankers handled about 42% of Russia’s total seaborne crude exports. Over half of this volume was shipped to China, making up about 61% of China’s seaborne imports of Russian oil. Meanwhile, most of the remaining exports went to India, contributing to nearly a third of the South Asian nation’s total intake of Russian oil, according to Kpler’s analysis. Moreover, the new sanctions are expected to drive up Russian crude price differentials in China and India in the short term, potentially reaching parity with non-sanctioned grades of similar quality, Kpler’s Wright said. India and China have started to procure more crude from sources other than Russia and Iran, in view of the tightening U.S. sanctions on Russia and an expected clampdown on Iran’s oil exports from the incoming Trump Administration. The latest U.S.-sanctioned tankers are estimated to have transported nearly 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil to China in the past year, a Singapore-based trader told Reuters, adding that this supply is “going to drop off a cliff.”

Sinwar’s brother said to be new Hamas chief in Gaza

Slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s (pictured) younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar, has become the organization’s new leader in the Gaza Strip, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing Arab mediators involved in ceasefire negotiations. According to the report, Hamas officials declined to elect a new leader after Israeli forces killed Yahya Sinwar in October, and rather opted for establishing a collective leadership council. However, Hamas militants in Gaza did not accept this decision and united under the leadership of the younger Sinwar, who is currently striving to strengthen the militant group. Mohammad Sinwar became Hamas’ Khan Younis brigade commander in 2005 and he was the mastermind of the kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in 2006, who later was exchanged for Mohammad’s brother Yahya, who was imprisoned in Israel. The younger Sinwar was believed to have been killed in 2014 until the Israeli military published a video in November 2023, showing Mohammad traveling in a car through a tunnel near the Erez crossing, at the northern border between Gaza and Israel.

Israeli FM confirms progress in ceasefire talks

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Monday that progress in negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of hostages had been made, confirming previous reports. “Israel wants a hostage deal. Israel is working with our American friends in order to achieve a hostage deal, and soon we will know whether the other side wants the same thing,” Saar stated at a press conference. The minister added that Israeli officials are cooperating with both outgoing President Joe Biden’s administration and incoming President-elect Donald Trump’s administration to reach a final agreement with Hamas. “I hope that within a short time we will see things happening, but it is still to be proved,” he said. NN: Their is no dealing with the devil

Oil Prices Jump to 4-Month High on Fresh U.S. Sanctions

Crude oil prices started the week with a gain that pushed Brent crude to the highest in four months following the introduction of a fresh package of sanctions against Russia by the Biden administration. The sanctions focused on Russia’s oil industry.

At the 4:00 AM est Brent crude was trading at $81.51 per barrel, with WT I was trading at at $78.50  per barrel,  touching October 7th highs. Algo guys are the  longest they have been since the  April 12 peek at Brent  $91.55. We know how that turned for the Algo stampede. By September 9th oil crashed to $68.50 and tens of billions were lost by AI Agos again.

The latest sanction package, reported to be the harshest yet, the U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, as well as on 183 tankers, many of them in the so-called shadow fleet Russia uses to ship its oil abroad without having to use Western vessels or insurance. “The new Russian sanctions from the outgoing administration are a net addition to at-risk supply, adding more uncertainty to the (first quarter) outlook,” RBC Capital Markets said in a note, as quoted by Reuters. Bloomberg reported that Chinese and Indian buyers of Russian crude were scrambling to weather the impact of the latest sanction package, as most Russian oil flows were redirected to these two countries after the start of the war in the Ukraine. According to analysts, the parting sanction move by the Biden administration would force Asian oil buyers to turn to the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas to replace lost Russian barrels. Shipping costs will increase as well. “Overall, the doubling of tankers sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical headwind to post-invasion crude flows,” RBC Capital Markets analysts said. The sanction package will affect vessels carrying some 1.5 million barrels daily in Russian crude. As a result, oil prices have soared and they might yet higher to go as there appears to be broad agreement that these are the harshest sanctions on Russian energy yet. “There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that’s untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia,” one Washington official said, as quoted by Reuters.

NN audio file….. Take a deep  breath