EIA Weekly Petroleum REPORT

Summary of Data for the week ending December 27, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending December 27, 2024, which was 41 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production
decreased last week, averaging 9.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.4 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, increased by 455 thousand
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 1.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 665 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 197 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels from last week and are slightly below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased last week while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 6.4 million
barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels from last week and are 10%
above the five year average for this time of year.

Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 0.6% from the same period last year.

Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 8.4% from the same period last year.

Jet fuel product supplied was up 6.1% compared with the same four-week period last year

Oil Prices Rise at the Start of 2025 as Demand Optimism Prevails

Oil prices began the 2025 trading year with a rise in Asia on Thursday as market sentiment turned positive on expectations of stronger economic and oil demand growth. Oil prices have been rangebound for most of the fourth quarter amid concerns about demand in China and other major economies and expectations of an oversupply this year. For 2024, oil saw a second consecutive year of annual declines, falling by about 3% compared to the last closing price of 2023. On Thursday, the first trading day of 2025, oil was up by half a percentage in Asian trade as the market digested signals that China would introduce additional measures to boost its economic growth this year.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was trading 0.95 higher at $72.67 in early trade. Brent Crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.75 at $75.57 per barrel.

China is set to be more proactive in measures to boost economic growth in 2025, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in his New Year’s address. In a separate speech, Xi also suggested that China would meet its official 2024 economic growth target of 5%. Official oil consumption data from the United States also boosted positive market sentiment. Earlier this week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that America’s total oil demand hit 21.01 million barrels per day (bpd) in October 2024. This was the highest volume of total crude oil and petroleum products supplied – a proxy for demand – since the pandemic, and a jump of about 700,000 bpd compared to September 2024. Later on Thursday, the market and traders will be watching the EIA weekly crude and fuels inventory report for additional insights. “With a balance between supply discipline and economic recovery, crude oil prices are poised for a potential recovery driven by geopolitical and economic factors,” Axis Securities says in a note on oil prices, as carried by The Wall Street Journal.

NN: Bonkes! The China recovery story is bogus. Industrial  production is falling as Europe goes tapioca. US oil production as Canadian and African production sets new records. Trump peace dividend will soon come.. Russia  exports of gas to China is cutting their oil needs, And if it were not for OPEC painful production cuts oil would be half what it is now,

Trump again warns Hamas to release hostages soon, or ‘It’s not going to be pleasant’

US President-elect Donald Trump reiterated on Tuesday night his warning to Hamas to release the hostages it is holding in Gaza.

At a New Year’s Eve gala at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump was asked by a CNN reporter whether he had spoken recently to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about a potential ceasefire and hostage deal, talks on which appear to have hit a snag.

“We’re gonna see what happens,” Trump replied, before adding: “I’ll put it this way: They better let the hostages come back soon.”

Trump first made a similar threat at the Republican National Convention in July and repeated it again last month, saying then that “there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against humanity” if the hostages were not released by the time he takes office. Trump’s reiterated threat comes as Israeli and US officials have said Israel and Hamas are unlikely to reach a hostage deal before Trump’s return to office, as a renewed round of negotiations has appeared to once again fizzle out. Israeli officials have charged that Hamas backed away from a softening of its stance that could have enabled a deal, and instead returned to a position that is holding up progress. The terror group has accused Israel of making new demands in the negotiations and causing delay. Arab mediators told The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday that negotiations had reached an impasse as both sides have doubled down on demands the other would not accept. According to the report, Israel has insisted that only living hostages be released in the first stage of a potential deal, while Hamas has insisted that the first 30-odd hostages returned include dead bodies. It has also gone back to its demand that the deal lead to a permanent end in fighting, to which Israel refuses to commit. While mediators have said a deal is unlikely to be reached before the end of US President Joe Biden’s term this month, they told the Journal that they expected the sides to return to negotiations once Trump takes office.

NN: To make natters worse Hamas used a hospital to conduct military terrorist activity against Israel, former IDF spokesperson says. 

BlaskMask Pod Cast:

TRUMP “THEY BETTER LET THE HOSTAGES GO”

 

Ukraine confirms it suspended Russian gas transit…… Gazprom stops gas transit via Ukraine

Ukrainian Ministry of Energy confirmed on Wednesday in a statement that the transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian territory has been suspended. The ministry noted that this was done in order to uphold the national security interests, adding that Kiev’s international partners have already been informed about the decision. “We stopped the transit of Russian gas, this is a historic event. Russia is losing markets, it will suffer financial losses. Europe has already decided to abandon Russian gas,” Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko commented.

Gazprom stops gas transit via Ukraine

PJSC Gazprom announced it halted gas deliveries to Europe via the territory of Ukraine after the transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine officially expired on January 1, 2025. The state-owned company said the supply of gas was stopped because technical and legal requirements for its continuation were not met. “Since 08:00 Moscow time, the supply of Russian gas for its transportation through the territory of Ukraine has not been carried out,” the company said in a statement. Ukraine previously announced the transit agreement would not be renewed.

Houthis claim another missile attack on Israe

Yemen-based Houthis said on Tuesday that they carried out another attack on Israel using hypersonic ballistic missiles, the rebel group’s spokesperson Yahya Saree (pictured) said in a statement. Saree shared that the group targeted Ben Gurion Airport and a power plant in Jerusalem, claiming that “the two missiles successfully hit their targets. Additionally, he revealed that Houthi forces also struck the US aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman while the US forces “were preparing to launch a major air attack against” Yemen. In recent days, the Houthis have launched multiple attacks on Israel prompting senior Israeli officials to warn that Houthi leaders will become targets of Israeli forces, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasizing that Israel is “just getting started with the Houthis”

Israeli forces have intercepted two Houthi missiles fired from Yemen, according to Israeli Army Radio.One of the projectiles was downed before it managed to enter Israeli airspace and the other after. The Magen David Adom ambulance service reported that two people were injured in the panic after the sirens sounded warning of the Houthi missile launch. One of the victims was hit by a car and lightly wounded while running to the bomb shelter, the ambulance service added that they were taken to Kaplan Medical Center.

Oil Prices Flatline as 2024 Draws to a Close

Crude oil prices started the last week of 2024 with a modest gain in anticipation of the last economic reports for the year from China and the United States, but prices quickly reverted back to where they had started. Brent crude was trading at $74.00 per barrel at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $70.42 per barrel, both only slightly down from Friday’s close. Both benchmarks are set to end the year pretty much where they started it, with Brent crude set for a more noticeable decline than WTI, with the difference roughly at $3 per barrel. Today’s weak price movement follows a week of gains for the benchmark on some new optimism about China and its oil demand prospects, despite two recent bearish forecasts from CNPC and Sinopec, which both expect oil demand to peak soon in the world’s biggest importer. This appears to be a consequence of the fact that despite China’s perceived demand weakness, the world has continued to consume growing volumes of crude oil. “Global oil consumption reached an all-time high in 2024 despite China underperforming expectations, and oil stockpiles are heading into next year at relatively low levels,” Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist at UK-based financial services provider Marex said “Going forward, China economic data is expected to improve as the recent stimulus measures take hold in 2025. Also, lower rates in the U.S. and elsewhere should be supportive of oil consumption,” Fitzmaurice added. Rapidan Energy, meanwhile, has warned that the supply risk in the Middle East has increased and might potentially lead to disruptions. “Phase one post-Oct. 7 was Gaza, and phase two was Hezbollah, neither of which threatened oil,” Rapidan’s president, Bob McNally, told Bloomberg, referring to Israel’s war with itsneighbors. “Now,  we are moving to the Houthis, who threatened Saudi Arabia.”

Missile from Yemen triggers sirens across Israel

Sirens rang out across parts of Israel as a missile was launched from Yemen, according to the Israeli military. The strike follows Israel’s attacks on Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, including its international airport, and coastal cities. It also comes after Israel said it used the United States’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system for the first time to intercept a missile launched from Yemen.

US THAAD system used by Israel for 1st time….. Israel Strikes Back HARD on the Houthis

The United States’ Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system was used in Israel for the first time, attempting to intercept a missile launched from Yemen. The THAAD system, deployed by the Biden administration in October, was stationed in Israel alongside approximately 100 US personnel to bolster Israel’s missile defenses amid escalating regional tensions. It remains unclear whether the system successfully neutralized the threat.

In a stunning move, Israel delivered a crushing blow to the Houthi rebel group after they launched yet another ballistic missile at Israel on Christmas Day. The Houthi leader, Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, bragged on live TV about Israel’s “failed deterrence,” but little did he know, Israel’s response was coming fast and furious.  Over 100 Israeli jets swooped down on Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen, including military infrastructure, power stations, and ports—crippling their ability to wage war against Israel.  The strategic strikes that sent shockwaves through the Houthi regime.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report

Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 20, 2024

 

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending December 20, 2024, which was 205 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased
last week, averaging 5.3 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 178 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels per day, 2.2% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 657 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 180 thousand barrels per day.. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories
increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels from last week and are 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 12.7 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels a day, down by 0.1% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.9 million barrels a day, up by 0.7% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.9 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 1.7% from, the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 6.5% compared with the same four-week period last year

Netanyahu: We’re just getting started with Houthis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with Channel 14 on Thursday warned that Israel was “just getting started with the Houthis” after his country launched a series of airstrikes targeting the Yemen-based militant group. “We won’t allow them [to attack Israel] these days, today and any other day. We will strike them to the bitter end until they learn. As I said, Hamas learned, Hezbollah learned, and Syria learned. The Houthis will learn too,” stated Netanyahu. Speaking about a potential ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas, Netanyahu criticized recent comments from unnamed officials that the agreement could have already been reached, calling them “lies.”

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi claimed  that the most recent strikes in Yemen show that the military is capable of reaching “any threat.” The remarks come hours after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attacked Houthi-controlled areas in that country amid a visit by a United Nations delegation. “Once again, the IDF has proven its capability to reach and strike any threat to the citizens of Israel. Over the years, we have built capabilities to strike very far from Israel’s territory in a precise, powerful, and repeated manner,” Halevi was quoted as saying by the Times of Israel.