Syria-based rebel forces are seeking to build on recent gains and capture more territory controlled by the government, raising the question of whether President Bashar Al-Assad can hold onto power. There are a lot of unknowns in how the latest twist in Syria’s 15-year conflict will play out, and much depends on the agendas of powerful external actors as much as the internal enmities that have influenced events. For Assad, 59, that means Iran, which considers Syria part of its so-called axis of resistance against Israel and the West and has for years provided the bulk of ground forces, and Russia, an old Cold War-era ally that stepped in to save him in 2015. A major game changer would be if Russia, which has an airbase in the country, commences a sweeping aerial bombardment against the rebels like it did nine years ago. The difference this time is that Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine. Assad has ground Syria down with its population struggling with poverty, shortages and power outages. The conflict so far has left between 300,000 to 500,000 dead, more than 7 million internally displaced, at least 6.4 million refugees and caused almost half a trillion dollars of damage, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian NGOs. The main rebel offensive known as Operation Deter Aggression is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former affiliate of al-Qaeda that’s designated a terrorist organization by the US and others. It’s believed to have 15,000 fighters and has experience in local governance in parts of northwest Syria that have stayed outside Assad’s control. Joining HTS are thousands of fighters from the Turkey-backed and funded rebel umbrella group known as the National Liberation Front. The Syrian National Army, another group supported by Turkey, has launched its own operation, mainly in the north against US-backed Kurdish militias. The most worrisome development for Assad is that thousands of former rebels who had been displaced to the north after the government recaptured territory are picking up arms again and joining the offensive. Rebels in the south of the country, mainly in and around the city of Daraa, are also starting to agitate. HTS appears to have put aside past differences with rival rebel factions and is downplaying its Islamist leanings. So far, Iran has shown a determination to do everything to prop up Assad, and there are reports on social media of Tehran-backed Iraqi militias being mobilized in the direction of Syria. The country is crucial territory for the Islamic Republic’s so-called forward defense doctrine, which relies on regional proxies in the confrontation with Israel and the US. Turkey is the dominant player in northern Syria, and initially opposed the HTS-led offensive, according to two people with direct knowledge of the situation. But Ankara changed its calculus after Assad refused to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss political reforms and the return of Syrian refugees — Turkey hosts more than 3 million — and the rebel gains, the people said. Turkey has also been heartened by how the rebels have pushed out US-backed Kurdish militias, considered terrorists by Ankara, from inside Aleppo and the town of Tal-Rifaat without much bloodshed. The US, meanwhile, has partnered with Syrian Kurds for almost a decade in the fight against Islamic State and maintains 900 soldiers in the country. Arab states, which have forged a rapprochement recently with Assad in the hope he may rely less on Iran and reconcile with the opposition, are along with the Americans adopting a wait-and-see approach in the face of the fast-moving events. And so is Israel, which significantly stepped up its targeting of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria after the Oct 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are designated terrorist organizations by the US and others. NN: The slaughter continues. The savages are turning on each other. Russia, Iran and their proxies are in a weakened state. Be aware of the Iraqi northern pipelines they go through Syria to the export hub in Turkey.
