Osama Hamdan one of Hamas’ top leaders and a member of its political wing in Lebanon, came out in support of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, according to Al Maydeen. Hezbollah previously affirmed that it will fight until the war in Gaza ends. However, Hamdan commented that he welcomes any announcement of a ceasefire adding “Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices.” Hamdan’s comments come amid news of an alleged ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanon-based group, the terms of which are yet to be announced. The Gaza-based wing of Hamas has yet to issue any official statement on a potential ceasefire.
Oil Drops Below $69 Amid Middle East De-escalation
Oil dropped as light pre-holiday trading exacerbated signs of diminishing risks from the conflict in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate shed 3.2% to settle below $69 a barrel. The Israeli ambassador to the US said a cease-fire agreement between his country and Lebanon’s Hezbollah could happen “within days.” Brent slid 2.9% to settle near $73. A cease-fire in Lebanon would reduce the likelihood that the Trump administration will impose hawkish sanctions on Iranian crude in January, said Rob Thummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital.
“It’s a supply problem,” Thummel said. “If Iran’s going to keep the supply on the market, then that means you’ve got a fair amount of supply next year potentially coming online.”
Iran currently supplies about 3.4 million barrels a day as the third-largest OPEC producer. A maximum-pressure campaign from the US against Iran could wipe out 500,000 barrels a day, Rapidan Group President Bob McNally said last week. Crude is also jumpy ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday and an OPEC+ meeting this weekend, when the cartel will decide whether to add extra barrels to the market. Traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last week anticipate OPEC+ will pause its scheduled January production hike. The UK government expanded its sanctions against Russia’s energy industry on Monday, offering some price support. Crude has traded in a range of about $6 a barrel since the middle of October — alternating between weekly gains and losses — as fresh tensions in Russia and Ukraine wrestled with signs of cooling risk in the Middle East. Some indications of improvements in physical markets have countered the prospects of oversupply.
Oil Prices:
- WTI for January delivery declined 3.2% to settle at $68.94 a barrel.
- Brent for January settlement fell 2.9% to settle at $73.01 a barrel.
Hamas top leader backs Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire
Osama Hamdan (pictured), one of Hamas’ top leaders and a member of its political wing in Lebanon, came out in support of a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, according to Al Maydeen. Hezbollah previously affirmed that it will fight until the war in Gaza ends. However, Hamdan commented that he welcomes any announcement of a ceasefire adding “Hezbollah has stood by our people and made significant sacrifices.” Hamdan’s comments come amid news of an alleged ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanon-based group, the terms of which are yet to be announced. The Gaza-based wing of Hamas has yet to issue any official statement on a potential ceasefire.
Lebanese sources: Biden, Macron set to announce Israel-Hezbollah truce
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT, Nov 25 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce a ceasefire in Lebanon between armed group Hezbollah and Israel within 36 hours, four senior Lebanese sources said on Monday., In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said, “We’re close” but “nothing is done until everything is done”. The French presidency said discussions on a ceasefire had made significant progress. In Jerusalem, a senior Israeli official said Israel’s cabinet would meet on Tuesday to approve a truce deal with Hezbollah. Signs of a diplomatic breakthrough were accompanied by heavy Israeli airstrikes on Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs, as Israel pressed on with the offensive it launched in September after almost a year of cross-border hostilities.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the text of a deal. But the senior Israeli official told Reuters that Tuesday’s cabinet meeting was intended to approve the text. Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement. Lebanon has previously objected to wording that would grant Israel such a right. In Beirut, Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless Netanyahu changes his mind”.
He said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region, long a Hezbollah stronghold, within 60 days.
Israel has dealt major blows to Hezbollah, killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders, and inflicting massive destruction in Lebanon areas where the group holds sway. Israel says its military offensive is aimed at enabling tens of thousands of Israelis to return to homes they evacuated when Hezbollah began firing across the Lebanese border into Israel more than a year ago. It requires Hezbollah to pull its fighters back around 30 km (20 miles) from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and the regular Lebanese army to enter the frontier region.
Israel and Hezbollah have accused each other of failing to implement it in the past; Israel says a new ceasefire must allow it to strike any Hezbollah fighters or weapons that remain south of the river.
Justice Department Moves to Drop Trump Prosecutions in Washington and Florida
- Special counsel says department policy requires dismissal
- Fate of state criminal cases against Trump still unsettled
The US Justice Department has moved to end its pursuit of criminal charges against Donald Trump, signaling a conclusion to the extraordinary federal prosecution of a former president whose reelection ensured he’d be shielded from charges in the White House. Special Counsel Jack Smith, who charged Trump with illegally conspiring to obstruct the 2020 election and with mishandling sensitive national security information after he left office, filed papers in court on Monday indicating the department would no longer move forward with either case against the president-elect. The special counsel’s office is seeking to dismiss the election obstruction indictment against Trump in Washington in its entirety. In the classified records case, prosecutors said they won’t pursue an appeal to revive charges against Trump, but will press ahead with a challenge to a Florida federal judge’s dismissal of charges against his two co-defendants. The judge ruled earlier this year that Smith’s appointment was unconstitutional and tossed out the case. Justice Department policy bars the prosecution of sitting presidents, forcing Smith’s hand to unnwind the cases against Trump after he won the election. Trump, who denied wrongdoing, said he would fire Smith and order the department to close the special counsel’s work if he won a second term. Smith wrote that his office “stands fully behind” the merits of the election obstruction case but the department’s prohibition on charging and prosecuting sitting presidents was “categorical.” The department asked the judge to dismiss the case “without prejudice,” leaving open the possibility that the prosecution effort could be revived once Trump leaves office.The decision to end the case “does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the Government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution,” he wrote. Smith is expected to resign as special counsel before Trump is sworn in. It wasn’t immediately clear which Justice Department office would take over the Florida prosecution, but once he’s in the White House Trump could order prosecutors to fully drop the appeal or to pardon the co-defendants, Waltine “Walt” Nauta and Carlos De Oliveira. Trump was the first former president indicted on felony charges. He also faced two state prosecutions, and the fate of those cases remains unsettled as he prepares to return to Washington. A New York jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to a former adult film star who claimed to have had a sexual relationship with him. A judge has delayed sentencing in that case as he decides how to proceed. In Georgia, a prosecution over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election have been on hold amid controversy about the lead prosecutor’s personal conduct.
Lebanon ceasefire deal said to be reached
Lebanese and Israeli officials reached an agreement on the terms of a ceasefire deal that would put an end to the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, Axios reported on Monday, citing a United States official. “We think we have a deal. We are on the goal line but we haven’t passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday and something can always go wrong until then,” the official stressed. The agreement will include a US-led monitoring committee to oversee implementation and address violations. On Sunday, Israeli media reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a ceasefire deal “in principle,” adding that several agreement issues are still to be resolved. Furthermore, Israel’s Channel 12 said that the Israeli military told Netanyahu that the time was right for a ceasefire since it had achieved its goal of destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Israel says it’s moving closer to Lebanon ceasefire
JERUSALEM/BEIRUT, Nov 25 (Reuters) – A senior Israeli official said on Monday Israel’s cabinet would meet on Tuesday to weigh a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah that could be cemented in coming days, and a Lebanese official said Beirut had been told by Washington that an accord could be announced “within hours”. Israeli officials had said earlier in the day that a deal to end the war was getting closer though there were still some issues to resolve, while two senior Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism even as Israeli strikes pounded Lebanon anew.
U.S. news website Axios, citing an unnamed senior U.S. official, said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal, and that Israel’s security cabinet was expected to approve the deal on Tuesday.
Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, said talks toward a ceasefire with Hezbollah were “moving forward” but he stressed that Israel would maintain an ability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on the Axios report. In Beirut, Lebanese Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to beginning implementation of a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel. Bou Saab said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region within 60 days. Hostilities have intensified in parallel with the diplomatic flurry: Over the weekend, Israel carried out powerful airstrikes, one of which killed at least 29 people in central Beirut – while the Iran-backed Hezbollah unleashed one of its biggest rocket salvoes yet on Sunday, firing 250 missiles.
In Beirut, Israeli airstrikes levelled more of the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs on Monday, sending clouds of debris billowing over the Lebanese capital. Efforts to clinch a truce appeared to advance last week when U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein declared significant progress after talks in Beirut before holding meetings in Israel and then returning to Washington. “We are moving in the direction towards a deal, but there are still some issues to address,” Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said, without elaborating. Michael Herzog, the Israeli ambassador in Washington, told Israel’s GLZ radio an agreement was close and “it could happen within days … We just need to close the last corners”, according to a post on X by GLZ senior anchorman Efi Triger. Lebanese deputy speaker Bou Saab said earlier on Monday that a decisive moment was approaching and expressed cautious optimism. “The balance is slightly tilted towards there being (an agreement), but by a very small degree, because a person like Netanyahu cannot be trusted,” he told a news conference. A second senior Lebanese official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Beirut had not received any new Israeli demands from U.S. mediators, who were describing the atmosphere as positive and saying “things are in progress”.
The official told Reuters a ceasefire could be clinched this week.
Oil Prices Dip After a Week of Gains…… WTI down over 2% amid possible Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Crude oil prices started the week with a dip after booking a gain of 6% last week, fueled mostly by geopolitical factors as the war between Russia and Ukraine escalated. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $74.58 per barrel, with WTI at $70.65 per barrel. At the same time, Iran changed its tune on enriched uranium in anticipation of tighter sanction enforcement by Washington after Donald Trump takes office in January. Bloomberg reported Tehran had said it would boost its capacity to enrich uranium after it received a censure from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israeli media reported yesterday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to the ceasefire proposal “in principle,” while Axios wrote today that the Biden administration expects Israel to approve the deal. The calming of tensions in the Middle East would ease some oil supply worries. “The IAEA censure and Iran’s response heightens the likelihood that Trump will look to enforce sanctions against Iran’s oil exports when he comes into power,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar told Bloomberg, adding some 1 million barrels daily in Iranian supply could be at risk of disruption. The International Atomic Energy Agency last Thursday passed a resolution that ordered Iran to step up cooperation with the regulator, after the UK, France, Germany, and the United States dismissed Tehran’s recent pledge to cap its enriched uranium stocks as “insufficient and insincere”, according to Reuters. “Markets are concerned not only about damage to oil ports and infrastructure, but also the possibility of war contagion and involvement of more countries,” Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva told Reuters. Tehran said yesterday it will hold talks with the UK, France, and Germany next Friday, to discuss its nuclear power program and likely the IAEA resolution. “Oil prices are starting the new week with some cool-off as market participants await more cues from geopolitical developments and the Fed’s policy outlook to set the tone,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong told the publication. NN: Its close to a done peace deal
Israel and Lebanon on verge of ceasefire deal
- ‘We are close to deal,’ Michael Herzog says to Army Radio
- Still unclear if Hezbollah will agree to Israeli proposals
Israel is potentially days away from a cease-fire deal with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the Israeli ambassador to the United States said, following a new round of shuttle diplomacy by a senior envoy for the outgoing Biden administration. “We are close to deal,” Michael Herzog told Israel’s Army Radio on Monday. “It could happen within days.” There have been similar predictions by other Israeli and US officials in recent weeks and it remains unclear if Hezbollah will accept a deal. The Iran-backed group has been severely weakened after two months of increased Israeli sabotage, air strikes and ground incursions in southern Lebanon. But it’s still able to fire rockets into Israel on a daily basis and put up resistance against Israeli ground forces. On Sunday, Hezbollah fired at least 250 rockets and drones into Israel, wounding several people, and the Israeli Air Force struck targets in Lebanon. NN: This is known as posturing for peace. The two sides have been in conflict since Hezbollah began launching strikes against Israel in October last year in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. Both groups are deemed terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries. White House envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region last week to try to clinch a cease-fire before President Joe Biden hands over to Donald Trump in January. According to Army Radio, once the Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signs off on a truce, Washington will take it to Beirut, where government officials have been serving as intermediaries with Hezbollah. Last week, one of Hezbollah’s main political allies, Lebanese House Speaker Nabih Berri, said there was progress but there were still “technical details” to resolve. Talks between Israel and Hamas over a cease-fire in Gaza have been stalled for months. Though the conflicts are connected, there’s little sign a deal over Lebanon would increase the chances of a truce in Gaza.
NN: Its over a done deal BlackMask pod cast:
