Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Thursday that Israel was ready to immediately implement the outline of a ceasefire in Gaza if Hamas agreed to approve the deal, according to Axios reporter Barak Ravid. Earlier, Sullivan embarked on a trip to Israel where he met with Netanyahu as a part of the Biden administration’s last-ditch effort to secure the hostage deal. It currently remains unknown whether Hamas is ready to agree to its terms, although Sullivan stated that the militant organization’s negotiating stance shifted after the conclusion of the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Syrian rebel leader, after Assad’s ouster, tightens his grip on the state
DAMASCUS/BEIRUT, Dec 12 (Reuters) – Rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa’s Islamist group is stamping its authority on Syria’s state with the same lightning speed that it seized the country, deploying police, installing an interim government and meeting foreign envoys – raising concerns over how inclusive Damascus’ new rulers intend to be. Since Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group swept Bashar al-Assad from power on Sunday at the head of a rebel alliance, its bureaucrats – who until last week were running an Islamist administration in a remote corner of Syria’s northwest – have moved into government headquarters in Damascus.
The appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir, the head of the regional government in HTS’ enclave of Idlib, as Syria’s new interim prime minister on Monday underlined the group’s status as the most powerful of the armed groups that battled for more than 13 years to end Assad’s iron-fisted rule.
Although it was part of al Qaeda before breaking ties in 2016, HTS had reassured tribal leaders, local officials, and ordinary Syrians during its march to Damascus that it would protect minority faiths, winning broad approval. The message helped smooth the rebels advance and Sharaa – better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani – has repeated it since Assad’s ouster.
At the office of the Damascus governor, its walls exquisitely decorated with marquetry and stained glass, the man brought from Idlib to run affairs dismissed concerns that Syria was being moved towards an Islamic form of government.
“There is no such thing as Islamic governance. After all, we are Muslims and it’s civil institutions or ministries,” said Mohammed Ghazal, a bespectacled 36-year-old civil engineer with a thick beard who was raised in the United Arab Emirates and spoke in near perfect English.
“We don’t have any problem with any ethnicity and religion,” he said. “The one who made the problem was the (Assad) regime.”
However, the way HTS has gone about shaping the new interim government – by bringing senior administrators from Idlib – has caused concern for some. Four opposition sources and three diplomats told Reuters they were concerned about the inclusiveness of the process so far.
Bashir has said he will only remain in power until March. But HTS – which remains classified as a terrorist group by the United States, regional powerbroker Turkey and other governments – has yet to spell out key details of the transition process, including its thinking on a new constitution. Sharaa, in a statement to Reuters on Wednesday, said he would dissolve the ousted regime’s security forces, close its prisons, and hunt down anyone involved in torture or killing detainees.
While Syrians celebrate the fall of Assad’s brutal police state, some are voicing fears about what may come.
Wissam Bashir, 28, speaking at a Damascus cafe, expressed concern “because of the things that I’m seeing … such as the new government, the spread of Islamic flags”. When he took office this week, Prime Minister Bashir appeared with two flags behind him – the green, black and white flag flown by opponents of Assad throughout the civil war, and a white flag with the Islamic oath of faith in black writing, typically flown in Syria by Sunni Islamist fighters. Asked whether Syria’s new constitution would be Islamic, he said “these details” would be clarified in the constitution-making process.
Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, a leading Syrian activist based in Washington and in touch with senior opposition figures, said HTS was being urged to “be smart and get the transition right, instead of letting the moment go to their heads by completely dominating the new government”. One diplomat in Damascus said HTS is the only faction meeting with foreign missions. “We are concerned – where are all the heads of the political opposition,” the diplomat said. “It would be a major signal to have them here, and they are not here.” NN: A terrorist is a Terrorist… this will end badly
OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Projections A 5th Straight Month Deepest Cut Yet
OPEC has cut oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth straight month, with the latest cut so far the deepest. OPEC has cut 2024 demand growth by 210,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels a day, 27% below its first estimate made in July, Bloomberg reported.
The OPEC secretariat said the revision takes “into account recently received bearish data” for the third quarter,” including “downward revisions to OECD Americas and OECD Asia Pacific.”
Different energy agencies have been issuing varying projections for oil demand growth. Last month, the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI) released its latest oil market report. Following the release, StanChart worked out that global oil demand in September clocked in at 103.012 million barrels per day (mb/d), the fourth consecutive month global demand has exceeded 103 mb/d. The y/y increase in demand in September was 1.136 mb/d, slightly below the average of 1.332 mb/d YTD but an improvement on August, when growth was just 0.631 mb/d. Previously, StanChart pointed out that oil demand growth, not absolute oil demand, is what has been slowing down from earlier post-pandemic years. Indeed, StanChart has noted that global oil demand has been setting a series of new all-time highs in the current year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been among the most bearish energy analysts. Earlier in the year, the energy watchdog predicted that global demand for all fossil fuels will stop growing this decade at a time when supplies of oil and LNG are poised to continue growing. The IEA, however, has predicted this development will come as a major boon for consumers because electricity prices will start declining as renewables play a bigger role in our generation mix.
“The world is set to enter a new energy market context in the second half of this decade because underlying market balances for oil and gas are easing. Bar major geopolitical conflicts, we will be entering a period where prices will see significant downward pressures,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in an interview.
EIA: US crude inventories down by 1.4M barrels
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 6, 2024
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.7 million barrels per day during the week ending December 6, 2024, which was 251 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.4% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.0 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.8 million barrels per day, 2.5% more than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 464 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 154 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline
inventories increased by 5.1 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.2 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels from last week and are 7% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.1 million barrels a day, up by
0.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, up by 1.4% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.1% from, the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.4% compared with the same four-week period last year
US Considers New Russia Oil Sanctions to Weaken Putin Ahead of Trump
- Restrictions would also target Russia’s shadow tanker fleet
- Biden looks for ways to sap Kremlin’s war machine in Ukraine
The Biden administration is weighing new, harsher sanctions against Russia’s lucrative oil trade, seeking to tighten the squeeze on the Kremlin’s war machine just weeks before Donald Trump returns to the White House. Details of the possible new measures were still being worked out, but President Joe Biden’s team was considering restrictions that might target some Russian oil exports, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. That step was something Biden had long resisted over fears it could trigger a spike in energy costs, especially in the run-up to last month’s presidential election. But with prices for oil slipping amid a global glut and fears growing that Trump may seek to force Ukraine into a quick deal with Russia to end its nearly three-year-old war, the Biden administration is now open to more aggressive action, the people said. The deliberations highlight how Biden’s team is more willing to take risks in confronting Russia as it prepares to depart, especially with previous efforts to choke the Kremlin’s energy revenues yielding mixed results and average US gasoline prices hitting their lowest level since mid-2021. In its waning weeks, the administration has also moved to surge military and financial support to Ukraine amid questions about Trump’s commitment to continued US support. The US already bans imports of Russian oil but new restrictions on the exports of one of the world’s largest producers — which could involve singling out foreign buyers of its crude — would upend more than two years of policy set after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. The administration was also weighing fresh sanctions aimed at the tanker fleet that Russia uses to transport its oil, the people said. The new limits on the so-called shadow fleet could be be unveiled in the coming weeks, according to the people. The European Union is planning similar measures on Russia’s shadow fleet before the end of the year. The bloc also is expected to target individuals involved in the trade.
Sanctioning Russia’s Tankers
A total of 106 tankers have been sanctioned for carrying Russian oil
Spokespeople for the National Security Council and the Treasury Department declined to comment on Tuesday. One model for broader US sanctions could be to impose restrictions similar to those on Iranian oil. In that case, buyers of the oil face US punishment. Such a move would be fraught with risk, given that powerful countries including India and China are major consumers of Russian crude. Most immediately, such limits could spike oil prices, causing global economic strain. Crude futures have held to a tight range since mid-October, with international benchmark Brent trading below $75 a barrel, compared with more than $120 in the months after Russia’s invasion. It would also inflame tensions with adversaries and partners alike, whose help the US wants to limit exports of sensitive goods such as chips and other technology that fuel Russia’s war machine. While the moves would seek to capitalize on a softer oil market, they would also be aimed at ratcheting up the pressure on Russia before Trump takes office. The president-elect has pushed for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and current officials say they want to give the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as much leverage as possible heading into any talks. With that in mind, squeezing President Vladimir Putin’s finances even further could strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand. There’s a chance Trump could unwind measures if he felt they had inflated oil prices, but that risks the potential political cost of looking weak or offering Russia concessions too soon.
Continue reading “US Considers New Russia Oil Sanctions to Weaken Putin Ahead of Trump”
API Reports US oil inventories up by 499,000 barrels
Crude oil inventories in the United rose by 499,000 barrels for the week ending November 29, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a draw of 1.30 million barrels. For the week prior, the API reported a 1.232-million barrel build in crude inventories. So far this year, crude oil inventories have fallen by roughly 3.4 million barrels since the beginning of the year, according to API data.
Events in Syria Could Impact Crude Oil Market
Events in Syria over the weekend could impact the crude market and increase the geopolitical risk premium on oil prices in the weeks and months to come amid yet more instability in the Middle East region. That’s what Rystad Energy’s Head of Geopolitical Analysis, Jorge Leon, said in a Rystad Energy oil market update, which was sent to Rigzone by the Rystad team late Monday. Leon highlighted in the update that Syria “isn’t a major oil producer” but noted that it “holds huge geopolitical clout due to its location and ties with Russia and Iran”. “Mixed with the tensions elsewhere in the region, the regime change has the potential to spill over into neighboring territories,” Leon stated in the update. “Sectarian tensions and instability in neighboring Iraq, a major oil producing nation that produced almost 4.1 million barrels per day of crude in November, could be further exacerbated,” he added. “Iran has lost another regional ally and is becoming increasingly isolated and more exposed to domestic revolts. This could embolden the upcoming Donald Trump administration to go for a ‘maximum pressure’ stance against Iran,” he went on to state. The update noted that Syrian oil production “shrunk rapidly after the civil war started in 2011 during the Arab Spring movement”. Syria’s oil output peaked in 1996 at 605,000 barrels per day, according to the update, which outlined that the country’s output then “started to decline gradually to 430,000 barrels per day by 2010 before abruptly plummeting to around 30,000 barrels per day in the years following the civil war”. According to the Energy Institute’s (EI) latest statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier this year, Syria’s oil production averaged 40,000 barrels per day in 2023. That figure marked a 6.6 percent year on year drop and less than 0.05 percent of global oil production in 2023, the review outlined. From 2013 to 2023, Syria’s oil production dropped by an average of 3.8 percent every year, the review showed. Syria’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 30,000 barrels per day last year, the review revealed. That figure represented a 7.7 percent year on year drop and less than 0.05 percent of the world’s crude oil and condensate output in 2023, according to the review. Syria’s crude oil and condensate production declined by an average of 3.8 percent every year from 2013 to 2023, the review highlighted. The EI’s oil production figure includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates (lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining), and NGLs (natural gas liquids – ethane, LPG, and naphtha separated from the production of natural gas), the review points out. It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biofuels and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. It also excludes liquid fuel adjustment factors such as refinery processing gain and oil shales/kerogen extracted in solid form.The EI’s crude oil and condensate figure includes crude oil, shale/tight oil, oil sands, and lease condensate or gas condensates that require further refining, the review highlights. It excludes liquid fuels from other sources such as biomass and synthetic derivatives of coal and natural gas. Rystad Energy’s update noted that the “rapid seizure of … Syria’s capital … brought a sudden end to the 50 year rule of the Assad family on Sunday”. It outlined that the rebel advance can be explained “by a few reasons”. “Recent Israeli attacks on Iranian proxies in Syria in the last few weeks helped to weaken the fighting capabilities of Assad supporters,” the update pointed out. “Intensified fighting between Russia and Ukraine also prevented Moscow from providing rapid military support to the now former president,” it added. “After months of Israeli attacks, a severely weakened Hezbollah – a key Assad supporter – meant the Syrian rebels encountered little resistance on their way to Damascus,” it continued .“And finally, a cautious Iran opted not to intervene in support of Assad to avoid yet another military escalation in the region,” the update went on to state.\
Rystad also noted in its update that it could be argued that the events in Syria “might somewhat reduce the geopolitical risk premium well into next year”.“
A weakened Iranian regime might be more willing to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid economic pressures that might lead to more anger domestically,” it said. “At the same time, Russia’s inability or unwillingness to provide military support to Assad’s regime raises questions about Moscow’s own military capabilities, having found itself bogged down in its war with Ukraine,” it added.
“This might add to Russian willingness to end its war with its neighbor, which, if materialized, would reduce the geopolitical risk premium in the oil markets,” Rystad went on to state.
In a market analysis sent on Monday, Samer Hasn, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Iran has become less capable than ever of threatening Israel”. “Syrian territory was a lifeline for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the latter is now besieged after being Iran’s key arm in the region,” Hasn added. NN: My bet is collapse of Syria lessons the risk to oil supplies.
Israeli Navy destroys Syrian Fleet in Latakia….. Israel claims destruction of 70% of Assad’s military power
The IDF has not released a detailed statement regarding the strikes, but the military sources spoke to the Israeli media confirmed that the Navy conducted a major operation on Monday night to eliminate the former regime’s naval fleet. The operation is part of a broader campaign to neutralize military assets and prevent them from falling into the hands of hostile forces. According to media reports citing official statements, following the collapse of the regime, Israel launched efforts to dismantle regime weapons sites to prevent them from being seized by hostile forces. This came amidst the chaotic takeover by rebel groups, many of which were previously linked to al-Qaeda and other jihadist organizations. Photographs from the port of Latakia reveal sunken Osa-class (Project 205) missile boats, with P-15M Termit (SS-N-2C Styx) launchers visibly protruding above the water’s surface. While official statements have not disclosed the number of Israeli warships involved or the exact count of Syrian vessels destroyed, some Israeli officials have indicated that all strategic weapons were successfully eliminated during the recent raids. The Osa-class missile boat is a high-speed naval vessel developed by the Soviet Union in the early 1960s. According to open sources, the Syrian Navy operated approximately 16 OSA-class missile boats, with at least half being the upgraded OSA II variant. The primary armament of the OSA-class features four P-15 (SS-N-2 Styx) anti-ship missilesas the main weapon. For air defense, the boats are fitted with two AK-230 turrets, each armed with twin 30mm autocannons. The vessels are powered by three diesel engines, each driving its own shaft, providing a high power-to-weight ratio and enabling a maximum speed of 39 knots. The Osa II variant features enhancements such as more powerful engines, an increased top speed, and tube-shaped missile launchers designed for the improved P-15U missiles, offering better operational capabilities and firepower.
The Israeli military announced on Tuesday that it had destroyed 70% of the military capabilities belonging to ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Following the collapse of the Assad regime over the weekend, the Israeli military reported hitting 320 “strategic targets” in Syria as part of operation “Bashan Arrow.” The attacks specifically targeted weaponry that Israel fears could fall into the hands of hostile groups, including Hezbollah. Israel’s naval forces previously destroyed the Syrian military fleet as part of a broader campaign to eliminate strategic threats to Israel.
Syrian rebel forces seize Damascus as Assad regime topples
Israel Steps Up Airstrikes, Sends Troops Deeper Into Syria
- War monitor says Israeli tanks seen in southwestern Damascus
- Opposition groups led by HTS toppled Assad over the we
Israel stepped up its attacks on military sites in Syria, striking hundreds of targets early Tuesday and sending troops deeper into the country. The strikes targeted warehouses and weapons depots in several parts of Syria including the capital Damascus, bringing the total of Israeli airstrikes in the past two days to at least 310, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Israel’s Army Radio, citing an unnamed defense official, described Tuesday’s attack as one of the biggest strikes in the air force’s history. Syria television also reported Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and its suburbs on two separate occasions early Tuesday. Israel seized a buffer zone along its border with Syria, an area the army says is about 155 square miles in size, a day after rebel groups toppled Bashar Al-Assad’s government on Sunday. Israel also said it struck Syrian chemical weapons and missile-storage sites. The observatory, which has been monitoring the war in Syria via a network of people on the ground, said Israeli tanks were seen in the southwestern suburbs of Damascus, a dozen miles away from the capital. The Israel Defense Forces are deployed in the buffer zone as well as points close to the border with Syria, spokesperson Avichay Adraee said in a post on X. He also said that reports circulating in some media outlets claiming that Israeli troops were “advancing or approaching Damascus are completely incorrect.” Israel’s seizure of the buffer zone and its sustained attacks have drawn the ire of Arab countries including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. In a statement, the kingdom said Israel’s assault showed “determination to sabotage Syria‘s chances of restoring its security, stability and territorial integrity.” Egypt also went as far as accusing Israel of seeking to “occupy more Syrian territory.” Israel is wary of the opposition groups that brought down Assad’s government. The rebels are led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, an Islamist group that was originally affiliated with Al-Qaeda. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government was formally in a state of war with Assad, whose government maintained relative calm on that border despite some violations in the past year. But the emergence of a new Islamist power base in its immediate vicinity adds an additional threat after more than a year fighting Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon. The head of HTS, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, is trying to change the image of his group from a radical one to a unified opposition capable of inclusive governance in Syria. In an interview with CNN last week, he said “no one has the right to erase another group,” responding to a question about previous attacks on minority groups.
HTS is designated a terrorist organization by the US and many other countries.
In a statement over the weekend, the quasi-government of the opposition sought to reassure the international community that they would not use chemical weapons stored in Syria. “We have no intention or desire to use chemical weapons or any weapons of mass destruction under any circumstance,” the opposition said. NN: Only a libeal lefty WOK LGBRQ TANS BINAY FOOL. believes these are not savage terrorists that have taken over Syria. They will make Assad look like Mr. Rogers.