WTI Hits $71 as Geopolitical Risks Mount
Oil rose as geopolitical tensions from Russia to Iran ratcheted higher while strength in equity markets increased the appeal of risk assets.
West Texas Intermediate climbed more than 1% to settle above $71 a barrel, an increase of more than 6% for the week, while Brent settled above $75 for the first time since Nov. 7. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has rapidly intensified following months of bloody attrition, with the use of longer-range missiles by both sides this week. At the same time, Iran said it will increase its nuclear fuel-making capacity after it was censured by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency. A gain in equity markets also gave crude a boost, though the rally was capped by a stronger dollar that makes commodities priced in the currency less attractive. Euro-area business activity unexpectedly shrank, a sign of the risks from heightened discord over trade. Still, bullish signs for crude emerged this week. WTI’s nearest timespread strengthened to 48 cents — indicating tighter supplies — after briefly flipping into a bearish contango structure earlier this week for the first time since February. Oil has swung between weekly gains and losses since mid-October, with a strong dollar, ample supply and indications of weak demand providing headwinds. At the same time, geopolitical tensions — including the Kremlin’s revamp of its nuclear doctrine this week — have caused temporary gains but failed to provide an extended uplift in the face of widespread expectations of a crude surplus next year. “The market is still complacent about geopolitical disruption risk,” Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “President Trump will be willing to crimp Russian energy exports to get leverage for deals he wants to cut.” The US, meanwhile, sanctioned Russia’s Gazprombank, closing a loophole that Washington kept open over the course of the war because the lender is key for energy markets. The penalties increase the risk of a cut-off of some of the remaining Russian gas flows to a handful of central European nations. NN: All the Sadie’s have to do is open the export valve a crack which they are happy to do and any supply disruptions are over compensated for.
Israel: Death of rabbi in UAE ‘act of antisemitic terrorism’
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office and Foreign Ministry confirmed Sunday in a joint statement that the body of missing rabbi Zvi Kogan was found in the United Arab Emirates (UAE.) “The murder of Zvi Kogan, of blessed memory, is an abhorrent act of antisemitic terrorism. The State of Israel will use all means and will deal with the criminals responsible for his death to the fullest extent of the law,” it showed. Kogan, an envoy of the orthodox Jewish organization Chabad-Lubavitch, had been missing in Dubai since Thursday, causing Israeli intelligence agency Mossad and UAE authorities to look for him. The Brooklyn-based religious organization was founded in 1775. The cause of his death remains unclear. NN: Their is no such thing as peace with these savages.
Trump nominates Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretory…… Musk: US headed for bankruptcy ‘super fast’
United States President-elect Donald Trump has chosen hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as his pick for Treasury secretary, The founder and CEO of investment firm Key Square Group. He played a major role as an economic adviser and fundraiser during Trump’s campaign. Bessent has long been seen as a top choice for the role, especially as it was reported Trump was leaning toward someone with Wall Street experience. Bessent is the founder of Key Square Management, a hedge fund that had less than $600 million in assets under management at the end of last year now down to $300 million. Key Square, lost money five of the past seven years ,
He worked for Democratic megadonor George Soros for years before that. Bessent donated about $3 million to Trump and other Republican causes this election season and previously said Trump was “very sophisticated on economic policy.” Bessent is known for being pro-tariff—tariffs are at the center of Trump’s economic policies—and called the import taxes a “negotiating tool with our trading partners” in a Fox News column last week. If confirmed, Bessent would make history as the first Senate-confirmed LGBTQ+ Republican Cabinet member.
NN a depression is guaranteed
KEY Square Capital Management is based out of Stamford. KEY Square Capital Management is a hedge fund with 7 clients and discretionary assets under management (AUM) of $307,033,902 (Form ADV from 2024-06-04).
Owners
- BESSENT, SCOTT, KENNETH HOMER – CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER / CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER / LIMITED PARTNER
- KEY SQUARE GP LLC – GENERAL PARTNER
- RESTIVO, NICOLE, BRODSKY – CHIEF COMPLIANCE OFFICER, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER
| Performance Last 4 Quarters: | -33.19% |
Key Square received a $2 billion anchor investment (bail out) from George Soros. At the end of 2017, Key Square’s assets were $5.1 billion. As of June 2024 the fund is down over $4.7 billion. Now worth $307 million (Form ADV from 2024-06-04). Key Square, lost money five of the past seven years
He is a LGBTQ Bessent is married to John Freeman, a former prosecutor, and they have two children. If confirmed, Bessent would be the first openly gay Treasury secretary. They live primarily in Charleston, S.C., and preserve historic mansions NN: Besent’s the fagot is cursed GOD, Want proof? Key Square is a perianal loser. And he has sold his soul to the devil Soros. Together they are plotting a collapse of the dollar and another great depresion. They did it to England and Japan. Trump has really screwed up BIG TIME. We could make a fortune in this,
Putin: Russia to continue testing Oreshkin missiles…….. ATTACK ON THE US’: Russia reportedly threatens US defense base in Poland
Russian President Vladimir Putin said during a meeting with Defense Ministry officials and weapons developers on Friday that the country plans to continue testing its new intermediate-range Oreshnik missiles. Russia first used the missiles in an attack on Ukraine earlier this week, in what Putin called “successful” tests. He added that his country has a “stockpile” of the new missile systems and called Oreshnik a “guarantor” of Russia’s sovereignty. Following the use of the new missiles, the Russian president insisted that Moscow decided to use them in response to Ukraine striking its territory with American long-range ATACMS missiles.
ATTACK ON THE US’: Russia reportedly threatens US defense base in Poland
Ukraine’s First-Ever ATACMS Strike in Russia
- Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.
- It appears to mark the first time that Ukraine has used these powerful weapons on Russian soil.
- The attack caused a fire at a military facility in Russia’s western Bryansk region.
Ukraine fired US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, according to multiple reports citing US and Ukrainian officials. The attack could mark a significant escalation in the war. The strikes came shortly after President Joe Biden authorized the use of the powerful missiles by Ukraine, a major change in long-held US policy. Russia’s defense ministry said five Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, were shot down early Tuesday morning local time, adding that missile fragments caused a fire at a military facility in the country’s western Bryansk region. There were no injuries or substantial damage, Russia’s defense ministry said. Ukrainian media also reported on the strikes, with a defense source telling RBC-Ukraine that ATACMS had been used in a successful attack on a military facility in Bryansk. Ukraine’s military said that it “inflicted fire damage” at an arsenal in Bryansk, with 12 secondary explosions recorded. Kyiv said it destroyed Russian warehouses with ammunition, although it did not specify what weapon it used in the strikes. In recent months, Ukraine has relied heavily on domestically produced long-range attack drones to strike ammunition depots and other sensitive military targets inside Russia since it had been restricted from using Western missiles to do the job. Earlier on Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin approved an update to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, widening the scenarios in which it would consider a strike. The move seemed a direct response to US approval for Ukraine to use ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory. Russia has long warned the West against allowing Ukraine to use the weapons in attacks on its territory, and the Russian Foreign Ministry on Monday said any such strikes would result in “an appropriate and tangible” response.
Ukraine has used ATACMS, which have a maximum range of around 190 miles, as well as French and UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles in strikes on Russia-occupied territory in eastern Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula. But until Tuesday, Ukraine had not used any of these long-range Western missiles to strike Russia itself.
Russia and Ukraine Conflict Pushes Oil to Two-Week High
Crude oil prices extended their gains today and were set to end the week higher after Russia shot a new kind of ballistic missile at Ukraine in the latest sign that the escalation there continues. The strike, featuring a hypersonic medium-range missile that has not been used before in warfare, came in response to a Ukrainian attack with U.S. and British ATACMS missiles on Russian territory. There were fears that Russia would escalate to using nuclear weapons, especially after President Vladimir Putin this week reiterated the changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which stipulate that a nuclear strike is acceptable on a country that is not itself a nuclear power but is being supported by a nuclear power.
“There’s an element of uncertainty as to how far each party could go in its attacks, which is injecting some anxiety into the oil market,” energy analyst Vandana Hari told Bloomberg. NB: Market reactions are blowing this way out of proportion.
The price rise could have been more substantial, perhaps, had it not been for the latest EIA weekly petroleum status report, which showed builds in both crude oil and fuels.
“We will be expecting a rebound in production as well as US refinery activity next week that will carry negative implications for both crude and key products,” Jim Ritterbusch from Ritterbusch and Associates told Reuters. In a note from earlier this week, ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote that the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian escalation on oil prices was muted by the news that Iran was ready to cap its enriched uranium stocks, which would reduce the risk of harsher U.S. sanctions that would threaten supply security. They also noted the return to normal operation at the Johan Sverdrup field in Norway after a short suspension due to a power outage. NN: PERFECT Let them go off half cocked. That way we can sell oil at even higher prices.
If Putin uses nukes, U.S. could wipe out Russian forces in Ukraine
WASHINGTON — If Russian President Vladimir Putin makes good on his threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States would likely respond with a sweeping economic embargo combined with a massive conventional attack on Russian military positions that could quickly wipe out the Russian president’s invading military forces, said Joseph Cirincione, a national security analyst and leading expert on nuclear warfare. The U.S. and NATO “could destroy the Russian forces in Ukraine in a matter of days,” said Cirincione, author of the book “Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before It Is Too Late,” in an interview on the Yahoo News “Skullduggery” podcast. “That would be the end of the Russian army in this.” But Cirincione also acknowledged that such a direct U.S. or NATO military strike against the Russian military — even in response to the Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield — could also spiral out of control. “There are no good responses once you start down the nuclear path,” he said. “It’s extremely difficult to terminate it for the same reason that a poker player losing a hand is hesitant to fold. They keep thinking there’s one more move they could make, one more bet they could raise to try to cause the other side to fold. So there’s no good responses.”
Cirincione said that if Putin were to actually make good on his threat to go nuclear, it would not be a large-scale thermonuclear bomb attack, but a more limited deployment of tactical weapons — far more limited in scope but still a major and unprecedented escalation. And Cirincione said that the U.S. military response would not be limited to the battlefield.
There would also likely be a sharp escalation in psychological warfare such as was used to unnerve Iraqi generals on the eve of the U.S. invasion of that country. “The U.S. was calling Iraqi generals in their home and telling them to stand down. And they did that for two reasons. One, to let them know we know where you live, right? Two, we can reach out and touch you,” said Cirincione, predicting that the U.S. might well adopt such a tactic in the Ukraine crisis. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that U.S. officials have warned that the Russians there would suffer “catastrophic consequences” if they used nuclear weapons, though he did not without specify what those were. But even as Sullivan has gone public on the issue, Cirincione acknowledged that the threats have not deterred Putin from talking up a nuclear scenario.
Last Friday, Putin gave a speech at the Kremlin in which he announced the annexation of four regions of Ukraine mostly occupied by Russia but where it is getting pushed back by Kyiv’s forces. Putin said that Russia would use “all means available” to defend its territory.
When asked about the fact that U.S. warnings have not in any way curbed Putin’s talk of nuclear weapons, Cirincione replied: “It tells me that he’s desperate and he’s convinced of his own power and that the pressure on him is not enough yet. So you’re absolutely right. He hasn’t stopped. Would he really do this? I think the answer to that is we don’t know.
But one reason to be alarmed, said Cirincione, is that Russian military doctrine now explicitly contemplates the use of nuclear weapons, not just to respond to a nuclear attack on the country, but also in the event of a large-scale conventional military attack that endangers Russia’s national security. “They call this strategy ‘escalate to deescalate,’” said Cirincione. “We will use a nuclear weapon in a variety of ways.” As the Russians see it, if they used tactical nuclear weapons in such a scenario, they would argue: “‘We won’t be starting a nuclear war. We’ll be ending a conventional war,’” said Cirincione. “That’s how their thinking goes. And that’s why you have to worry about this more and more as Putin continues to lose the war in Ukraine. It’s exactly in these kinds of circumstances that the use of nuclear weapons comes into play in doctrine and in Putin’s thinking.” “I consider Putin a fascist,” he added. “I think he has built a fascist regime in Russia. We have never seen a fascist regime with nuclear weapons before. We’ve had authoritarians. We’ve had some brutal dictators, but nothing on this scale before. So this is very dangerous territory.” NN: I know a bluff when i see one. The odds of Russia’s pair of duces winning when NATO is holding a queen and jack of hearts and the US is holding a queen and jack of spades is ZERO and the US and NATO will win in a tie 100% of the time.
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Putin confirms using new medium-range missiles in Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed on Thursday that Russia has successfully tested a new medium-range ballistic missile, called Oreshnik, against Ukraine as part of its ongoing military efforts. He stated that long-range strikes from Ukraine have introduced “global elements to the conflict,” but emphasized that the “enemy has failed” to achieve its military objectives. Addressing Russians in a televised speech, Putin stressed that attacks using Western weapons will not change the outcome of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. He also adressed Russia’s use of advanced weaponry, stating that if hypersonic weapons are deployed against Ukraine, civilians would be warned in advance. Putin reaffirmed Russia’s right to target military objects of those who use weapons against them, reinforcing Moscow’s stance on the legitimacy of their military actions in the ongoing conflict with Kiev. The Russian president’s remarks come amid heightened tensions in the region.
NN: Everyone needs to calm down here. This is Russian propaganda . Not a game changer. In fact the experimental missile missed its target. What you are seeing is postering before the upcoming peace negotiations. Where Ukraine well be forced to face reality. It can’t defeat Russia without NATO troops on the ground. And that is not going to happen. So after the blow and go Ukraine will be forced to accept the reality it has lost the Dunbar region just like it lost the Crimea . So best course of action is to arrange the best terms of surrender and cut your loses.
