Ukraine has used US-supplied ATACMS ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, RBC-Ukraine reported on Tuesday. The successful attack, as reported by RBS-Ukraine, comes after the Kremlin issued a warning against Ukraine and its allies not to use the system, which the Kremlin regards as a major threat. In that context, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved updates to the country’s nuclear doctrine, expanding the authorization of the use of nuclear weapons to include aggression by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state. According to sources, today’s attack “was inflicted on an object in the Bryansk region.” The target is located about 130 km from the Ukrainian border.
The MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS /əˈtækəmz/) is a supersonic tactical ballistic missile designed over 40 years ago and manufactured by the US defense company Lockheed Martin. It uses solid propellant and is 13 feet (4.0 m) long and 24 inches (610 mm) in diameter, and the longest-range variants can fly up to 190 miles (300 km). The missiles can be fired from the tracked M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) and the wheeled M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). An ATACMS launch container (pod) has one rocket. It has a small payload of M74 bomblets (M39) or 214 kg (472 lb) WAU-23/B unitary warhead (M48, M57) NN: This will not start a nuclear war. What they forget to tell you is the fact this weapon system has been in the war for over a year. With a restriction it could not be aimed at targets INSIDE RUSSIA . Now they can hit targets in Russia up to 200 miles. Hardly a game changer.
Crude oil prices added over $2 per barrel on Monday on the news about a production halt at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field due to an onshore power outage but earlier today the momentum began to slow down with traders refocusing on fundamentals. Despite that dip, the market will be carefully watching developments between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude was trading at $73.36 a barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at $69.20, both up from opening but modestly.“But investors stayed wary, assessing the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war after the weekend’s escalation,” he added.
Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities analyst told Reuters. “Some position adjustments kicked in after Monday’s rally,”
Norway’s Equinor, which operates Johan Sverdrup, said it was working to resume production at the field but did not specify when the restart was expected.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthe “Despite the strength in the flat price yesterday, the prompt WTI time spread flipped into contango, which points towards a market that looks better supplied,” “Globally, our balance shows that the market will be in surplus through 2025.”
Johan Sverdrup is the biggest producing oil field in Western Europe. It began producing in 2019 and its peak output is seen either this year or next. The peak production level is seen at 755,000 barrels daily, which is significantly higher than initial peak output expectations of 660,000 bpd. The peak output was hit for the first time this September when Johan Sverdrup produced 756,000 bpd. The field’s output alone accounts for a third of Norway’s total oil production.
Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities USA said it is rare for spot prices to be up almost 3% at the same time that the curve is under pressure and threatening to switch to contango,” “However, it is more likely to happen when speculators scramble to spread out of their position ahead of expiration, selling at the front of the curve and buying further out.”
Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. was quoted: Speculation that an emboldened Ukraine may put Russian energy assets at risk and increase the likelihood of direct involvement from the US and North Korea is reducing the urgency to sell as well, said NB: This is a over reaction to Ukraine’s use of what is in essence a field short range missile system that at best makes a small boom with a 200 mile range.
Oil prices got a geopolitical boost at the start of the week that seems to have remained for the time being. The boost came from the Biden administration’s decision to allow the Ukrainian army to target Russian territory with long-range missiles. The decision was a stark departure from the administration’s previous stance. Russia called the decision reckless and warned it would constitute a direct confrontation with NATO. NN: See yesterdays pod cast Titled: Biden Bombing Trump Peace Plan….. Point in fact we regard yesterdays rally as a selling opportunity,,,,, And sell we did.
Duda warned Trump in call of Germany’s Kremlin dealmaking
Polish president takes aim at Scholz’s phone call with Putin
Poland’s head of state accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz of trying to cut Donald Trump out of talks over the future of Ukraine in a bid to revive Germany’s own relations with Russia. Scholz drew criticism from the government in Kyiv and some of its allies over his phone call last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he justified by saying he aimed to push the Kremlin leader to negotiate a lasting peace with Ukraine. But Polish President Andrzej Duda, who has cultivated a close relationship with Trump since the president-elect’s first term in office, said the telephone diplomacy had another purpose.
“I believe it was an attempt to bring about a cease-fire in Ukraine before Donald Trump took office,” Duda said in an interview in Warsaw.
Duda also criticized Scholz’s decision to invite US President Joe Biden for talks on the future of Ukraine with the leaders of France and the UK last month in Berlin. The Polish leader said he was “shocked” that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wasn’t given a seat at the table. Asked about Duda’s comments during a news conference at the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Scholz reiterated his reasons for talking with Putin. “We also have to make sure that Europe speaks, and so I emphasize again that it was very important to hold talks,” Scholz told reporters. “Also to be able to report that, unfortunately from what we heard, nothing has changed with the Russian president from his original plans,” he added. Duda’s intervention is the latest evidence of how Kyiv’s allies are jockeying for position ahead of a major shakeup in geopolitics triggered by Trump’s return. Duda said that Scholz is concerned about being pushed into disadvantageous deals with Washington after Trump takes office and is trying to get ahead of that. The German leader is politically hobbled after his government collapsed this month, triggering an early election in February. “What the Germans are most afraid of is that Donald Trump will force them to buy gas from America,” Duda said. Duda and Trump have maintained close ties and discussed the war in Ukraine during a two-and-a-half hour meeting in New York in April. During a phone call on Nov. 11, they agreed to meet again before Trump’s inauguration. Duda said he warned the US president-elect in that phone call that Germany and other allies are trying to “tie his hands.” Duda dismissed as “laughable” suggestions that Trump would abandon Ukraine, pointing to military aid that his previous administration sent to Kyiv. The Polish leader said Trump didn’t outline his plan for the war, but he quizzed the Pole about his views and the stances of other leaders. “I’m convinced that when it comes to the war in Ukraine, he is collecting data and information,” Duda said. “At this moment, he is constantly, continuously collecting this information in a very vigilant manner.”
Duda wasn’t alone in criticizing Scholz’s hour-long call with Putin Friday, the first direct contact in almost two years. Ukraine blasted the effort, other European allies took a dim view of the exchange.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Monday in an interview with rbb24 Inforadio that “diplomacy only works if talking continues even in the most difficult moments. At the same time, it’s important that we speak together as Europeans.” NN: Biden’s (Obama) DNA are all over this senseless escalation to destroy the peace that Trump is close to achieving.
Kremlin: Nuclear response to Ukraine using Western weapons possible
Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov issued a stern warning Tuesday to Ukraine and its allies should Kiev decide to use Western long-range missiles against Russia or Belarus. Peskov’s remark comes minutes after it was learned that Russian President Vladimir Putin approved updates to the country’s nuclear doctrine,
expanding the authorization of the use of nuclear weapons to include aggression by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state.
In a press conference, Peskov reiterated the warnings issued in the new doctrine while declaring the military is monitoring the situation “as closely as possible” regarding the report that US President Joe Biden has already approved the use of US long-range missiles in Russia.
Crude oil futures increased by over 1.7% on Monday as supply disruptions and geopolitical conflicts exerted upward pressure on oil markets. The uptick comes in the wake of Russia’s latest “massive combined attack” targeting all regions in Ukraine during the weekend, marking its biggest air strike in nearly three months. Further, The New York Times reported yesterday that United States President Joe Biden greenlighted Ukraine’s use of Washington-provided long-range missiles to carry out strikes inside Russian territory, further pressuring the commodity’s prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for December’s settlements rose by 1.78% at 9:18 am ET to sell for $68.20 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent for January’s deliveries increased by 1.83% to go for $72.25 per barrel.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday commented on previous reports on United States President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory and claimed that the outgoing US administration wants to escalate the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.
“If such a decision has indeed been formulated and communicated to the Kiev regime, then, of course, this would be a qualitatively new round of tension and a qualitatively new situation regarding the United States’ involvement in this conflict,” Peskov said at a press briefing.
Furthermore, the spokesperson stressed that if Western missiles are launched deep into Russia, this will mean that Western countries that provided those weapons, and not the Ukrainian military, are targeting Russian territory, which would have serious consequences.
Chris Wright, chief executive of Liberty Energy, has been nominated to lead the Department of Energy in the Trump administration.
Wright is a vocal critic of the energy transition as envisaged by most Western governments to date, instead calling for energy realism and prioritizing the supply security and affordability of energy rather than its emission footprint.
“Three decades from now the vast majority of energy will come from hydrocarbons,” Wright told Bloomberg two years ago in an interview, also warning that subsidizing wind and solar would not only not help reduce emissions but would end up increasing electricity prices and rendering the grid more vulnerable. Indeed, this is already happening in Europe, with the Czech government recently announcing a retroactive cut in solar subsidies because it can no longer afford to support the industry. Solar developers threatened to sue the government, saying that without subsidies there would be bankruptcies. Czech electricity consumers pay some of the most expensive electricity on the continent, along with Germans and Britons—both champions of the transition. President-elect Donald Trump said that Wright “will be a key leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new ‘Golden Age of American Prosperity and Global Peace,’” as quoted by the Financial Times. Wright will also be appointed to a new federal entity dubbed a Council of National Energy, whose task would be to do a complete makeover of U.S. energy policies across government agencies, the FT reported. “This Council will oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the Economy, and by focusing on INNOVATION over long-standing, but totally unnecessary, regulation,” Trump said. NN: Drill baby drill here we come
Russia stages first big missile attack on Kyiv since August
Power system damaged further as winter sets in
Strike piles pressure on Ukraine at critical juncture
Attack prompts Poland to scramble air force
KYIV, Nov 17 (Reuters) – Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, launching 120 missiles and 90 drones that killed at least seven people and caused severe damage to the power system, officials said. Ukrainians had been bracing for weeks for a renewed Russian attack on an already hobbled energy system, fearing long winter blackouts and mounting psychological pressure almost 1,000 days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. The strikes, which caused numerous power cuts, came at a time when the impending U.S. presidency of Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war without saying how, has raised the prospect of a push for negotiations. Air defences could be heard engaging drones over the capital Kyiv in the night, and a series of powerful blasts boomed across the city centre during the missile attack. Residents huddled in underground metro stations, wrapped in winter coats. “Severe damage to Ukraine’s energy system, including to DTEK power stations. These attacks again highlight Ukraine’s need for additional air defence systems from our allies,” said Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private power company. The extent of the damage was hard to assess. After repeated Russian attacks on the power grid, officials reveal little detailed information about the outcome of strikes and the state of the network. Officials confirmed damage to “critical infrastructure” or power cuts in regions from Volyn, Rivne, Lviv in the west to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. DTEK imposed emergency power cuts in the southern Odesa region, but had lifted them in three other regions by late morning. Emergency work was ongoing in the Odesa, Rivne and Volyn regions, national grid operator Ukrenergo said. Russia’s defence ministry said it had launched a massive strike on energy facilities that supply Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.
“The enemy’s target was our energy infrastructure across Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Kyiv’s air force said it had destroyed 104 of the incoming 120 missiles and shot down 42 drones. Another 41 disappeared from radar, it said. At least seven people were killed, in the regions of Lviv, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk, authorities said. Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Mihai Popsoi said Russian missiles and drones had violated Moldovan airspace during the attack. NATO member Poland, which also borders Ukraine, said it had scrambled its air force as a precaution. Russia’s Its latest onslaught piles more pressure on Ukraine as Moscow’s troops notch up their fastest battlefield gains in the east since 2022 in their effort to seize the entire industrial Donbas region. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who called the Russian leader on Friday for the first time in two years. Though Scholz urged Putin to pull out his troops, which occupy a fifth of Ukraine, Kyiv bridled at a call that it said reduced Putin’s isolation.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk echoed Sybiha: “The attack last night, one of the biggest in this war, has proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support from the whole West for Ukraine. The next weeks will be decisive, not only for the war itself, but also for our future.”
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied missiles to strike deeper inside Russia, easing limitations on the longer range weapons as Russia deploys thousands of North Korean troops to reinforce its war, according to a U.S. official and three other people familiar with the matter. The decision allowing Kyiv to use the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMs, for attacks farther inside Russia comes as President Vladimir Putin positions North Korean troops along Ukraine’s northern border to try to reclaim hundreds of miles of territory seized by Ukrainian forces. Biden’s move also follows the presidential election victory of Donald Trump, who has said he would bring about a swift end to the war and raised uncertainty about whether his administration would continue the United States’ vital military support for Ukraine. The irst reaction from Ukraine to the long-awaited decision from the U.S. to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russia was notably restrained. The official and the others knowledgeable about the matter were not authorized to discuss the U.S. decision publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reaction Sunday was notably restrained. NN: Things ae heating up. Biden will do anything to undermine all Trumps programs..
Turkish leader wants Ukraine to delay NATO bid for 10 years
Zelenskiy says Ukraine must do everything to end war in 2025
After almost 1,000 days resisting the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s allies are pushing Volodymyr Zelenskiy to consider new ways to lure Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table as they seek an end to the fighting.
Donald Trump will return to the White House in January pledging a quick end to the war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Putin to engage in peace talks during a phone call on Friday. France’s Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that he’ll speak to the Russian leader when the time is right.
Two European officials said there is an increasingly recognition that Zelenskiy will have to compromise with Putin because it has become clear that neither side can secure a decisive victory.
On the eve of the G-20, which will be President Joe Biden’s last in office, the US decided to authorize long-range missile strikes on Russian territory. The idea behind that shift is that it will help bolster Zelenskiy’s position before Trump takes office so that he can approach eventual negotiations with a strengthened hand.
Allowing Ukrainians to use those Western-made weapons — known as Army Tactical Missile Systems — would mark a serious escalation, but it’s unlikely to dramatically change the course of the conflict, according to Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a privately owned defense think tank. Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the latest NATO member to want to get in on the discussion. He’s set to present his proposal to freeze the conflict on current lines when Group of 20 leaders meet in Rio de Janeiro Monday, according to people familiar with his plans. The sudden clamor for a settlement shows the renewed urgency from Ukraine’s allies who are trying to get ahead of Trump’s return and the possibility of drastic cuts in US support. With North Korean troops entering the fray on the Russian side, there is growing appetite to halt a conflict which has brought destruction to vast tracts of Ukraine, consumed hundreds of billions of dollars in financial aid and foreign weapons and upended geopolitical relationships in Europe and around the world.
Only Trump can negotiate peace in Ukraine, aide says
United States President-elect Donald Trump is the only one who can help negotiate a diplomatic settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, his presidential transition team communications director Stephen Cheung told CNN. According to Cheung, only Trump will be able to bring together both Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table and stop the killing in the war-torn country. Shortly after several media outlets reported that the US, France, and the United Kingdom decided to allow Kiev to use their long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia, an unnamed representative of Trump’s transition team stated that the President-elect may reconsider Biden’s decision once in office.
The United Kingdom and France have allegedly greenlighted Ukraine’s use of long-range air-launched cruise missiles, Storm Shadow, inside the Russian territory, La Figaro reported on Sunday. The New York Times broke the news that outgoing United States President Joe Biden authorized the use of Washington-supplied weapons in Russia in response to Moscow’s decision to deploy North Korean soldiers into combat against Ukraine. The Pentagon declined to make any comments following the reports in the US media, while sources told Reuters that Ukraine could attack Russia using the weapons “in the coming days.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent months urging Western allies to lift their restrictions on using weapons for strikes within Russian territory, emphasizing that it would help bring an end to the war “as soon as possible.” Russian President Vladimir Putin previously warned that Ukraine’s use of Western-provided long-range weapons against Russia would mean NATO’s direct participation in the conflict.
