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Israel Confirms Attack On Iran Imminent; Defence Minister….. Netanyahu revealed Hezbollah’s planned tunnel attack on Israel

Israeli Defense Minister on Oct 23 opened up about revenge strikes against Iran. Yoav Gallant was addressing pilots & air crews at the Hatzerim airbase. He reiterated intent to respond to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel. Gallant told Air Force crews on Wednesday that after striking in Iran, the world will understand Israel’s might and its enemies will learn a lesson, according to a video and an X post published by his office. Israel has been planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, Tehran’s second direct attack on Israel in six months. “After we attack in Iran, they will understand in Israel and elsewhere what your preparations have included,” Gallant told the crews in the video, which his office said was filmed at Hatzerim Air Base.

On X, Gallant added: “In my conversation with them I emphasized – after we attack Iran, everyone will understand your might, the process of preparation and training – any enemy that tries to harm the State of Israel will pay a heavy price.”

The Middle East has been on edge in anticipation of the Israeli retaliation for Iran’s attack in which around 200 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel. In the past few weeks Israel has intensified its offensive against Palestinian militants Hamas in Gaza and its Iran-backed ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. The war was triggered a year ago by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel. Washington is seeking to head off further widening of the conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that Israel’s retaliation should not lead to greater escalation. NN: A new generation of hoagies are about to learn why their grandfathers feared the Jew. 

Netanyahu revealed Hezbollah’s planned tunnel attack on Israel

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed on Wednesday that Hezbollah had planned a large-scale attack on Israel using underground tunnels, motorbikes, jeeps and missiles. In an interview in French media CNews and Europe 1, Netanyahu explained that the tunnels were discovered just a few meters from Israel’s northern border. He warned that if Israeli forces didn’t detect this on time, the attack could have been more devastating that Hamas’ in October 7, 2023. According to Netanyahu, this planned invasion by Hezbollah was intended to surpass the scale of previous attacks, involving various vehicles and heavy weaponry. He didn’t detailed when and where exactly the plan was discovered or how many jeeps and motorbikes were planned to be used against Israeli territory.

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Russia could help Iran counter Israel’s attack

Russia could help Iran defend against an upcoming attack by Israel, Sky News Arabia reported on Wednesday citing Israeli sources. The assistance would allegedly be provided without harming Russia’s relations with Israel and could include early warnings, detecting incoming Israeli aircraft and electronic jamming, and guidance to protect potential targets. Israel has been planning a strike on Iran in retaliation to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1, which was itself in retaliation to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The details and timing of Israel’s strike are currently unknown.

nn audio file:Russia is in the game

 

 

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US oil inventories reportedly up by 1.6M barrels

Crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 1.6 million barrels in the week that ended October 18, the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) private data allegedly showed on Tuesday. Meanwhile, reserves in Cushing, Oklahoma, allegedly fell by 216,000 barrels. Gasoline stockpiles declined by 2 million barrels, while distillate inventories dropped by 1.5 million barrels, according to the reported data. NN: Crude oil inventories rising, distillates drooping. Slow demand  time of the year. And of course inventories will built because refineries are closed for maintaince and gearing up for winter time production. And of course distillate inventories will go down as they sell off summertime blends.

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Netanyahu, Blinken discuss Iranian ‘threat’ and Gaza postwar strategy…..Blinken urges Israel to avoid escalation in Iran response

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken for about two and a half hours on Tuesday in Jerusalem, in a session characterized as “friendly and productive” in a statement from the PM’s office. The discussions were primarily focused on the “threat” that Iran’s military objectives may pose for the region and the necessity for collaboration between the two countries to combat it. According to the statement, Blinken condemned the recent “Iranian attempt through Hezbollah” to assassinate Netanyahu, labeling it an “extreme and concerning” incident. The leaders also discussed the future governance of Gaza following the ongoing conflict with Netanyahu stressing that the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar could positively influence both the achievement of war objectives and the return of abductees.

Blinken urges Israel to avoid escalation in Iran response

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday urged Israel to avoid actions that could lead to “greater escalation” in its response to Iran’s attack earlier this month. On October 1, Tehran launched ballistic missiles at Israel after Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. “Since October 7 a year ago, Israel has achieved most of its strategic objectives when it comes to Gaza… Now is the time to turn those successes into enduring, strategic success,” Blinken told reporters in Tel Aviv, stressing that “now” is the time to “end” the war in the Gaza Strip.Meanwhile, air raid alerts nationwide delayed Blinken’s departure from Tel Aviv this morning, following Hezbollah’s claim of targeting a military base in northern Tel Aviv.

NN: Israel needs to blast Iranian leaders back to the dark ages which they are tying to bring back.  And they  might just do it.

 

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Oil Gains as China Lifts Crude Import Quota

Oil prices are on the rise, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $72.50 per barrel and Brent crude at $76.00  on Tuesday morning. Both key benchmarks gained more than 2% on the day, helped by economic optimism out of China and lingering concerns about potential disruptions from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday, China’s commerce ministry said that the country would lift its total crude oil import quota for private importers for 2025 by 6%—to 5.14 million bpd, per Reuters calculations. This would see 257 million metric tons imported by non-state-owned refiners in China next year, compared to 243 million tons in quotas allocated for 2024. In recent months, oil markets have been highly volatile. Brent crude was trading at around $74.69 last week and $73.21 a month ago. This marks a slight downward movement from the start of the year when prices hovered near $76. The slump has been driven by fears of oversupply and weaker demand, particularly from China, the world’s largest oil importer. China’s recent stimulus measures, aimed at boosting its flagging economy, have fueled hopes of increased oil demand. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have so far kept investors on edge, with any escalation able to disrupt global oil supply—even if only in the short term. Meanwhile, U.S. oil inventories have been fluctuating, with recent reports showing a 1.58 million barrel draw in crude stockpiles, which also helped support prices. However, U.S. shale producers are cautious, and spending in the sector has slowed, suggesting that price growth could be tempered in the near term. While prices seem to be on the rebound—at least for the day—the market remains sensitive to global economic factors and potential supply disruptions, making future trends uncertain.

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Israel might target Iran officials’ homes after Netanyahu strike

Israel is considering responding to the attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea by targeting the homes of Iranian officials, Al Arabiya reported on Tuesday. Netanyahu blamed Hezbollah for the attack and Iran for organizing it behind the scenes, promising a retaliation. Tehran refused to claim responsibility for the incident and said it was on Hezbollah. In the meantime, Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting, in which the response to Iran for the missile attack on October 1 was supposedly discussed.

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Oil Rises Amid Middle East Tensions and Chinese Economic Support

Oil gained — after losing more than 8% last week — as China moved again to bolster its economy and traders tracked the risk to supplies from tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 2% to settle at more than $70 a barrel while global benchmark Brent rose to settle above $74 a barrel. On Saturday, a Hezbollah drone exploded next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home.

The following day, Israel opened a fresh military assault on the group’s strongholds in Lebanon. Israel has already vowed to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack at the start of October.

Meanwhile, banks in China — the world’s largest oil importer — cut their benchmark lending rates on Monday as part of a series of measures to revive growth. Speaking in Singapore, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin H. Nasser said he is bullish about the nation’s consumption. Crude has had a volatile month, with traders balancing risks to flows from the Middle East against signs of soft demand in China. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has said rising global supplies could lead to a surplus next year, with OPEC+ set to restore some shuttered capacity in stages from December. “If we don’t see a major escalation of the situation in the Middle East, I still expect that oil prices will be further under pressure because we are entering a period, including next year, of more comfortable markets,” Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, told Bloomberg Television on Monday. He cited factors including the rapid growth of output in the Americas.

Still, traders remain on edge. Bullish call options continue to trade at a premium to bearish puts, while weekly call option volumes on the global Brent benchmark were the second-largest on record last week.

  • WTI for November delivery climbed 1.9% to settle at $70.56 a barrel.
  • Brent for December rose 1.7% to settle at $74.29 a barrel.
nn audio file:

 

 

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Israel’s wars are expensive. Paying the bill could force tough choices

On top of the grievous toll in human life and misery, Israel’s war against the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups has been expensive, and the painfully high financial costs are raising concerns about the long-term effect of the fighting on the country’s economy. Military spending has ballooned, and growth has stalled, especially in dangerous border areas that were evacuated. Economists say the country could face declining investment and higher taxes as the war strains government budgets and forces tough choices between social programs and the military.

Here is a look at the monetary costs Israel faces as a result of the conflict: The Israeli government is spending much more per month on the military, from $1.8 billion before Hamas started the fighting by attacking Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, to around $4.7 billion by the end of last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The government spent $27.5 billion on the military last year, according to the institute, ranking 15th globally behind Poland but ahead of Canada and Spain, all of which have larger populations. Military spending as a percentage of annual economic output was 5.3%, compared with 3.4% for the United States and 1.5% for Germany. That pales in comparison to Ukraine, which spent 37% of its GDP and more than half its entire government budget on fighting off Russia’s invasion. In the three months after Hamas attacked, Israel’s economic output shrank 5.6%, the worst performance of any of the 38 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of mostly rich nations. The economy partly rebounded with growth of 4% in the first part of this year but grew only 0.2% in the second quarter. In Israel, the war has imposed many economic burdens. Call-ups and extensions of military service threaten to crimp the labor supply. Security worries deter investment in new business, and disruptions in flights have kept many visitors away, cutting into the tourism industry. Meanwhile, the government is paying for housing for thousands of people who had to leave their homes in the south near the border with Gaza and in the north where they were exposed to fire from Hezbollah. Moody’s Ratings cited that idea on Sept. 27, when it lowered the Israeli government’s credit rating, two notches. The Baa1 rating is still considered investment grade, albeit with moderate risk, according to Moody’s. Israel’s economy is hardly collapsing. The country has a diversified, highly developed economy with a strong information-technology sector, which supports tax revenues and defense spending. Unemployment is low, and the TA-35 stock index is up 10.5% on the year. Even amid the fighting, tech companies raised some $2.5 billion in capital during the third quarter, according to Zvi Eckstein, head of the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University. Israel started the war “in the best economic condition” regarding government debt, which stood at a relatively modest 60% of GDP, Eckstein said. “We financed the war mainly with debt,” which has now risen to 62% but is still contained compared with France at 111% and in line with Germany at 63.5% The institute foresees debt reaching 80% of GDP, assuming the fighting does not markedly intensify and some sort of cease-fire or conclusion can be reached by the end of next year. Even then, higher defense spending is likely, especially if Israel maintains a military presence in Gaza after the war. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s budget for 2025 foresees a deficit of below 4%, saying that will ensure that Israel’s debt burden remains stable. Smotrich said the country has a stable shekel currency, rising share prices, a tight jobs market, strong tax revenues and access to credit, and a rebounding tech sector. Moody’s questioned the deficit figures, forecasting a 6% deficit for next year. The credit downgrade will lead to higher borrowing costs, meaning Israelis are likely to see cuts to public services and higher taxes, said Karnit Flug, a former head of Israel’s central bank and now vice president of research at the Israel Democracy Institute. Before the war, American military aid to Israel amounted to around $3.8 billion per year under a deal signed during President Barack Obama’s administration. That comes to roughly 14% of Israel’s prewar military spending, much of which goes to U.S. defense companies. Since the war in Gaza began and led to escalating conflict across the Middle East, the United States has spent a record of at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project that was released on the anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel.

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Poll: Harris, Trump still tied in battleground states

United States Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are still tied in seven states that are likely to decide the outcome of the November 5 presidential election, according to a Washington Post poll released on Monday. Support for both candidates in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin stands at 47%, with a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points. Across the seven states, voters gave Harris a net approval rating of 44% for her job as vice president, while 51% approved of Trump’s performance in his first term in office. The respondents chose the economy, inflation, the threat to democracy and healthcare as the most important issues ahead of the election, with more voters trusting Trump than Harris to handle the first three.

NN: This election will be decided on the streets or court house

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Classified US intelligence leaked, documents show Israel’s plans for Iran

US intelligence documents have been leaked, allegedly exposing Israel’s military preparations for potential strikes on Iran, says the New York Times.

The two documents are considered highly classified, and originate from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) – “responsible for analysing images and information collected by American spy satellites” – offer insights into Israeli military exercises and operational readiness. The two documents, dated October 15 and 16, were circulated on Telegram by accounts largely associated with pro-Iran sentiments. They provide detailed analyses of satellite images showing Israel’s military exercises, which appear to be in preparation for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The potential strike comes in the wake of escalating tensions following an Iranian missile barrage on October 1, itself a retaliation for an earlier Israeli attack. One of the documents is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran” and outlines recent Israeli exercises that seem to rehearse a potential military operation against Iran. These preparations reportedly include air-to-air refuelling operations, search-and-rescue missions, and the repositioning of missile systems in anticipation of potential Iranian strikes. The second document reveals Israeli efforts to move munitions and other military assets to strategic locations.Although the documents describe Israeli military movements and exercises, they do not provide satellite images themselves. The US intelligence gathered from these images suggests that Israel is gearing up for a strike, but it is unclear whether these documents reveal the full scope of Israel’s plans for Iran. The leaks have reportedly prompted immediate concern within the US government. US officials are divided over the severity of the leak, with some downplaying its impact given that the documents do not reveal new American capabilities. Others, however, are alarmed by the exposure of Israel’s sensitive military plans, particularly at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. President Joe Biden, when asked during a recent trip to Germany whether he was aware of Israel’s planned strike on Iran and its targets, responded with a brief “Yes and yes,” but declined to elaborate. While the exact source of the leak remains unknown, early indications suggest that the documents may have been taken by a lower-level US government employee. A joint investigation by the Pentagon, US intelligence agencies, and the FBI is underway to determine how the information was leaked and whether more documents could follow.