The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are currently reporting that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was killed during a recent military operation in the Gaza Strip.
According to an official statement from the IDF, three Hamas fighters were eliminated, and initial assessments suggest a high likelihood that one of them could be Sinwar. The operation took place in a building where, according to the IDF, there were no indications of hostages present. A senior Israeli official has communicated to Hebrew media that the security establishment believes there is a substantial chance that Sinwar was among those killed. However, the IDF has yet to confirm the identities of the deceased militants. Images circulating on social media reportedly show Sinwar’s body, but there has been no official confirmation from Hamas regarding his status. As the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks on Israel and a pivotal figure in Hamas’s military strategy, Sinwar’s potential death could have significant ramifications for both the organization and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. Sinwar, born in 1962, was one of the founding members of Hamas in 1987 and previously led the group’s security branch, earning a reputation for his harsh methods against perceived collaborators. Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in July, Sinwar ascended to leadership of Hamas in August 2023. His absence could trigger a power struggle within the organization as various factions vie for control.
Oil prices remained flat on Wednesday after a 4% drop due to easing concerns about potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast, citing weak Chinese demand, while revising up its 2025 growth estimate.
Analysts from Standard Chartered note discrepancies between supply estimates from IEA, OPEC, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, suggesting the perceived 2025 oversupply might be exaggerated.
Oil prices are little changed in Wednesday’s intraday sessions after they tumbled more than 4% on Tuesday to a near two-week low on easing Iranian supply disruption fears. According to a report by the Washington Post, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Biden administration that Israel is willing to strike Iran’s military infrastructure rather than oil or nuclear facilities, and that Israel would take U.S. opinion into consideration. The pressure on oil prices has been compounded by other developments after the International Energy Agency lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for the third month in a row to 862K bbl/day, down from its prior view of 903K bbl/day. According to the IEA, global oil demand increased by 680K bbl/day in Q3, its slowest growth clip since Q4 2022 when China was in full lockdown. To complicate matters, Chinese demand contracted by 500K bbl/day Y/Y in August, more than double the average decline of 190K bbl/day since April. On a more positive note, the IEA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 998K bbl/day up from 954K bbl/day previously. As commodity experts Standard Chartered have observed, oil prices in October-to-date have been as erratic as its September gyrations. The Brent forward curve remains very flat, with an almost parallel downwards shift over the past week. According to StanChart,
The prevailing tone of market sentiment, particularly among the more speculative traders, remains overwhelmingly bearish, on par with that in late 2008 at the start of the Global Financial Crisis.
StanChart notes that the main themes currently dominating oil markets are expectations of macroeconomic hard landings, extreme oil demand weakness, and persistent fears of oversupplied oil markets in 2025. However, the commodity experts have argued that the oversupply concerns may be overblown given the ongoing supply-side opaqueness. StanChart points out that whereas the market has been focusing more on the considerable gap between IEA and OPEC Secretariat estimates of demand growth, relatively little attention has been given to even larger differences between IEA and U.S .Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates of OPEC+ (also known as Declaration of Cooperation, DoC) oil output. The IEA sees OPEC crude oil output 700kb/d higher, DoC crude oil output 967kb/d higher and total DoC liquids output 1.323mb/d higher. The OPEC Secretariat figures–the average of seven secondary-source assessments (energy consultancies, EIA and media)–are closer to the EIA rather than the IEA estimates. StanChart points out that the difference between the IEA and the EIA DoC supply estimates is roughly commensurate with the IEA’s inferred 2025 surplus. That’s an important point to bear in mind considering that the IEA’s prediction of 2025 oversupply is largely to blame for the current ultra-bearish market sentiment, meaning that the 2025 surplus that has led to lower 2024 prices could primarily be made up of ghost, rather than real, barrels. StanChart says that the considerable differences in supply/demand estimates by the leading energy agencies also matter in terms of OPEC producer policy. For instance, according to the EIA, the UAE produced just 18kb/d above target in September, while the IEA sees the overrun as a substantial 348 kb/d. On a more bullish note, StanChart has worked out that the IEA model implies a global stock draw of 370 kb/d in Q3-2024, even with up to 1.3mb/d of [possible] ghost barrels. Further, StanChart’s model shows a small H1-2025 supply deficit of 0.2 mb/d, even if voluntary output cuts are scaled back, but only if Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan compensate for past overproduction. Back in July, the three OPEC+ members submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat for overproduced crude volumes for the first six months of 2024. According to OPEC, the entire over-produced volumes will be fully compensated for over the next 15 months through September 2025, with Russia ‘paying back’ a cumulative 480 kb/d, Iraq 1,184 kb/d and Kazakhstan 620 kb/d.
StanChart says that traders have adopted a largely short-term approach by reacting to hourly news feeds but are not pricing in the potential for longer-term changes in Iran’s foreign relations, or even Iranian reactions to any further attacks on it. StanChart has predicted that oil prices will drift higher when the dust of the short-term headlines eventually clears.
NN: We cover the trade implications in coming BlackMask Market News and Commentary streaming update later today
Washington DC expects Israel will launch its retaliatory attack on Iran before the United States presidential Election Day on November 5, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. However, the sources pointed out that the exact scheduling and strategy for Israel’s response remain unknown and that its government does not seem to seek to tie the timing of its actions to the US election. Still, they also noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pays close attention to the political situation in the US and does not want to cause negative consequences to his country. Earlier in the day, it was reported that Israel’s plan of retaliation to Iran for its missile attack on October 1 was ready. Previously, it was said that Netanyahu told the US his country will not seek to strike nuclear and oil targets in Iran.
Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s missile attack on October 1 is ready, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing a person familiar with the issue. The unidentified source did not disclose further details of the plan. Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1 came in response to the deaths of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and senior military official Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly promised the United States that his country’s retaliation will not target nuclear and oil targets in Iran.
Iran vows ‘decisive and regretful response’ if Israel strikes
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (pictured) told United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres that his country is “is fully prepared for a decisive and regretful response” in case Israel decides to attack it in response to the recent missile strikes from Tehran, the Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. During the conversation, Araghchi also stressed the importance of “maintaining peace and stability in the region” and insisted Tehran is “making all-out efforts to protect the peace and security” but would have to act in case of “any adventures” by Israel. Meanwhile, Guterres expressed concern about rising tensions in the Middle East and called for a “political solution.” Israel reportedly reached a decision on Tuesday on how it would respond to the Iranian attack that Tehran carried out in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The response still needs to be approved by the country’s security cabinet. NN: This party is not over just postponed until after the elections.
The world’s largest cryptocurrencies continued to grow on Tuesday, with Bitcoin’s price climbing to its highest level since late July, surpassing the $67,000 mark. The recent gains in the digital token market appear to be linked with growing prospects of Donald Trump’s potential victory in the November presidential elections, with the Republican candidate holding a slight lead over his Democratic contender Kamala Harris in critical swing states. The latest poll by Harvard CAPS/Harris showed that 48% of voters showed support for Trump, while 47% of those surveyed favored Harris. Bitcoin climbed 2.44% to trade at $67,708.40 at 9:58 am ET. Ethereum advanced 1.65% to $2,670.80.
Crude oil prices fell more than 3% in early trading on Tuesday following news that Israel has no intention of attacking Iranian oil infrastructure in retaliation for Tehran’s missile strike earlier this month. Earlier, The Washington Post published a report revealing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the US that he is willing to strike military targets and not nuclear or oil facilities. The decision was made in order not to interfere politically in the US elections because of the impact the Israeli attack could have had. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for settlements in November fell by 3.10% at 1:13 am ET, selling for $71.42 per barrel. Brent for December deliveries slipped by 3.21% and sold for $74.93 per barrel.
Netanyahu told US Israel will strike Iranian military targets, sources say
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supposedly told the United States he is willing to strike Iranian military targets and not nuclear or oil ones, the Washington Post reported, citing two officials familiar with the matter. According to the report, during Wednesday’s talks between Netanyahu and US President Joe Biden, Netanyahu said he was planning to strike military infrastructure in Iran, in such a way as to avoid the perception of “political interference in the US elections,” due to the political impact Israel’s strike could have. The Israeli strike on Iran would come before the US elections on November 5, the official familiar with the matter said. Additionally, Israel has allegedly told the US that it intends to wrap up operations in Lebanon in the coming weeks. NN: As previously reported this is the best deal Israel could make. After the election especially if Trump wins…. the savages can be exterminated before they destroy the world.
Oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday, erasing last week’s gains due to concerns over weak demand from China. Despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, investors are now focusing on China’s economic performance, with the government’s new stimulus program taking center stage. However, China’s September deflation worsened, and a weekend press conference provided little clarity on the scope of its stimulus plans. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for settlements in November fell by 2.33% at 5:35 am ET, selling for $73.80 per barrel. Brent for December deliveries slipped by 2.25% and sold for $77.24 per barrel.
OPEC revises down oil demand growth forecast
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in its monthly report on Monday that it expects the 2024 oil demand to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to 2023, 106,000 bpd less than in its previous report. OPEC said the change was made “largely due to actual data received combined with slightly lower expectations for the oil demand performance in some regions.” It added that total world oil demand is forecast to reach 105.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter, averaging 104.1 million bpd in 2024. OPEC also revised down the 2025 global oil demand growth projection, expecting it to stand at 1.6 million bpd, compared to 1.7 million bpd previously. Demand is expected to grow by 0.1 million bpd in OECD countries and 1.5 million bpd in the non-OECD region.
Thirty-nine people were injured in a Hezbollah drone strike in the Binyamina area, the Israeli Army Radio confirmed, citing a military source. Two drones reportedly approached Israel, with air defenses shooting down one over the sea while the second struck. Magen David Adom head Eli Bin reported that three victims are in critical condition, five are seriously injured, while 14 others suffered moderate injuries. According to the announcement, the Israeli Air Force is investigating why no warning sirens were activated before the attack.
Hezbollah confirms drone strike on Israel
Hezbollah confirmed that it carried out the drone strike in Binyamina, south of Haifa, targeting a Golani Brigade camp. In a statement posted on social media, the group claimed responsibility for the attack, which injured dozens. Hezbollah stated the attack was conducted “in support of our steadfast Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and in support of their valiant and honorable resistance, and in defense of Lebanon and its people.”Israeli media now reports that at least 67 people have been injured in the attack, an increase from the initial count of 39.
Thirty-nine people were injured in a Hezbollah drone strike in the Binyamina area, the Israeli Army Radio confirmed, citing a military source. Two drones reportedly approached Israel, with air defenses shooting down one over the sea while the second struck. Magen David Adom head Eli Bin reported that three victims are in critical condition, five are seriously injured, while 14 others suffered moderate injuries. According to the announcement, the Israeli Air Force is investigating why no warning sirens were activated before the attack.
United States President Joe Biden’s administration is considering sending Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense systems to Israel, a US official told The Times of Israel. Previously, Israeli media reported that the US plans to deploy the anti-ballistic missile system in Israel and send American forces to operate it in order to be prepared for the highly anticipated Israeli retaliation after the recent Iranian missile attack. The THAAD is a US defense system designed to target incoming short, medium, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase with hit-to-kill technology.