Israel is considering responding to the attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea by targeting the homes of Iranian officials, Al Arabiya reported on Tuesday. Netanyahu blamed Hezbollah for the attack and Iran for organizing it behind the scenes, promising a retaliation. Tehran refused to claim responsibility for the incident and said it was on Hezbollah. In the meantime, Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting, in which the response to Iran for the missile attack on October 1 was supposedly discussed.
Oil Rises Amid Middle East Tensions and Chinese Economic Support
Oil gained — after losing more than 8% last week — as China moved again to bolster its economy and traders tracked the risk to supplies from tensions in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate advanced almost 2% to settle at more than $70 a barrel while global benchmark Brent rose to settle above $74 a barrel. On Saturday, a Hezbollah drone exploded next to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home.
The following day, Israel opened a fresh military assault on the group’s strongholds in Lebanon. Israel has already vowed to retaliate against Iran for a missile attack at the start of October.
Meanwhile, banks in China — the world’s largest oil importer — cut their benchmark lending rates on Monday as part of a series of measures to revive growth. Speaking in Singapore, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin H. Nasser said he is bullish about the nation’s consumption. Crude has had a volatile month, with traders balancing risks to flows from the Middle East against signs of soft demand in China. At the same time, the International Energy Agency has said rising global supplies could lead to a surplus next year, with OPEC+ set to restore some shuttered capacity in stages from December. “If we don’t see a major escalation of the situation in the Middle East, I still expect that oil prices will be further under pressure because we are entering a period, including next year, of more comfortable markets,” Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, told Bloomberg Television on Monday. He cited factors including the rapid growth of output in the Americas.
Still, traders remain on edge. Bullish call options continue to trade at a premium to bearish puts, while weekly call option volumes on the global Brent benchmark were the second-largest on record last week.
- WTI for November delivery climbed 1.9% to settle at $70.56 a barrel.
- Brent for December rose 1.7% to settle at $74.29 a barrel.
nn audio file:
Israel’s wars are expensive. Paying the bill could force tough choices
On top of the grievous toll in human life and misery, Israel’s war against the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups has been expensive, and the painfully high financial costs are raising concerns about the long-term effect of the fighting on the country’s economy. Military spending has ballooned, and growth has stalled, especially in dangerous border areas that were evacuated. Economists say the country could face declining investment and higher taxes as the war strains government budgets and forces tough choices between social programs and the military.
Here is a look at the monetary costs Israel faces as a result of the conflict: The Israeli government is spending much more per month on the military, from $1.8 billion before Hamas started the fighting by attacking Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, to around $4.7 billion by the end of last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The government spent $27.5 billion on the military last year, according to the institute, ranking 15th globally behind Poland but ahead of Canada and Spain, all of which have larger populations. Military spending as a percentage of annual economic output was 5.3%, compared with 3.4% for the United States and 1.5% for Germany. That pales in comparison to Ukraine, which spent 37% of its GDP and more than half its entire government budget on fighting off Russia’s invasion. In the three months after Hamas attacked, Israel’s economic output shrank 5.6%, the worst performance of any of the 38 countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a group of mostly rich nations. The economy partly rebounded with growth of 4% in the first part of this year but grew only 0.2% in the second quarter. In Israel, the war has imposed many economic burdens. Call-ups and extensions of military service threaten to crimp the labor supply. Security worries deter investment in new business, and disruptions in flights have kept many visitors away, cutting into the tourism industry. Meanwhile, the government is paying for housing for thousands of people who had to leave their homes in the south near the border with Gaza and in the north where they were exposed to fire from Hezbollah. Moody’s Ratings cited that idea on Sept. 27, when it lowered the Israeli government’s credit rating, two notches. The Baa1 rating is still considered investment grade, albeit with moderate risk, according to Moody’s. Israel’s economy is hardly collapsing. The country has a diversified, highly developed economy with a strong information-technology sector, which supports tax revenues and defense spending. Unemployment is low, and the TA-35 stock index is up 10.5% on the year. Even amid the fighting, tech companies raised some $2.5 billion in capital during the third quarter, according to Zvi Eckstein, head of the Aaron Institute for Economic Policy at Reichman University. Israel started the war “in the best economic condition” regarding government debt, which stood at a relatively modest 60% of GDP, Eckstein said. “We financed the war mainly with debt,” which has now risen to 62% but is still contained compared with France at 111% and in line with Germany at 63.5% The institute foresees debt reaching 80% of GDP, assuming the fighting does not markedly intensify and some sort of cease-fire or conclusion can be reached by the end of next year. Even then, higher defense spending is likely, especially if Israel maintains a military presence in Gaza after the war. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s budget for 2025 foresees a deficit of below 4%, saying that will ensure that Israel’s debt burden remains stable. Smotrich said the country has a stable shekel currency, rising share prices, a tight jobs market, strong tax revenues and access to credit, and a rebounding tech sector. Moody’s questioned the deficit figures, forecasting a 6% deficit for next year. The credit downgrade will lead to higher borrowing costs, meaning Israelis are likely to see cuts to public services and higher taxes, said Karnit Flug, a former head of Israel’s central bank and now vice president of research at the Israel Democracy Institute. Before the war, American military aid to Israel amounted to around $3.8 billion per year under a deal signed during President Barack Obama’s administration. That comes to roughly 14% of Israel’s prewar military spending, much of which goes to U.S. defense companies. Since the war in Gaza began and led to escalating conflict across the Middle East, the United States has spent a record of at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project that was released on the anniversary of the Hamas attacks on Israel.
Poll: Harris, Trump still tied in battleground states
United States Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are still tied in seven states that are likely to decide the outcome of the November 5 presidential election, according to a Washington Post poll released on Monday. Support for both candidates in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin stands at 47%, with a margin of error of 1.7 percentage points. Across the seven states, voters gave Harris a net approval rating of 44% for her job as vice president, while 51% approved of Trump’s performance in his first term in office. The respondents chose the economy, inflation, the threat to democracy and healthcare as the most important issues ahead of the election, with more voters trusting Trump than Harris to handle the first three.
NN: This election will be decided on the streets or court house
Classified US intelligence leaked, documents show Israel’s plans for Iran
US intelligence documents have been leaked, allegedly exposing Israel’s military preparations for potential strikes on Iran, says the New York Times.
The two documents are considered highly classified, and originate from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) – “responsible for analysing images and information collected by American spy satellites” – offer insights into Israeli military exercises and operational readiness. The two documents, dated October 15 and 16, were circulated on Telegram by accounts largely associated with pro-Iran sentiments. They provide detailed analyses of satellite images showing Israel’s military exercises, which appear to be in preparation for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The potential strike comes in the wake of escalating tensions following an Iranian missile barrage on October 1, itself a retaliation for an earlier Israeli attack. One of the documents is titled “Israel: Air Force Continues Preparations for Strike on Iran” and outlines recent Israeli exercises that seem to rehearse a potential military operation against Iran. These preparations reportedly include air-to-air refuelling operations, search-and-rescue missions, and the repositioning of missile systems in anticipation of potential Iranian strikes. The second document reveals Israeli efforts to move munitions and other military assets to strategic locations.Although the documents describe Israeli military movements and exercises, they do not provide satellite images themselves. The US intelligence gathered from these images suggests that Israel is gearing up for a strike, but it is unclear whether these documents reveal the full scope of Israel’s plans for Iran. The leaks have reportedly prompted immediate concern within the US government. US officials are divided over the severity of the leak, with some downplaying its impact given that the documents do not reveal new American capabilities. Others, however, are alarmed by the exposure of Israel’s sensitive military plans, particularly at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East. President Joe Biden, when asked during a recent trip to Germany whether he was aware of Israel’s planned strike on Iran and its targets, responded with a brief “Yes and yes,” but declined to elaborate. While the exact source of the leak remains unknown, early indications suggest that the documents may have been taken by a lower-level US government employee. A joint investigation by the Pentagon, US intelligence agencies, and the FBI is underway to determine how the information was leaked and whether more documents could follow.
Israel targets Lebanon, Gaza with 175 strikes
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck 175 targets across Lebanon and Gaza during the last 24 hours, the military said early on Sunday. Israeli warplanes struck Hezbollah and Hamas military facilities, including warehouses and launch sites, the IDF revealed in a post on X (formerly Twitter.) At the same time, soldiers from the IDF’s elite Golan and Egoz units eliminated a Hamas cell operating in southern Gaza in close-quarters combat, the army stated .NN: does this look like peace to you. Until Hamas surrenders or is eliminated their will be no peace.
UNRWA was trying to aid and abet Sinwar’s ESCAPE from Gaza
Israeli forces discovered various items on Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s body after his death on October 16. The findings included grenades, an assault rifle, nearly $11,000 in cash, a UNRWA employee’s passport, and personal items like prayer beads and letters to his son. Analysts suggest the presence of a fake ID and the passport indicate Sinwar may have intended to flee Gaza, raising questions about Hamas’s internal dynamics. The discovery has implications for UNRWA’s reputation amid accusations of aiding Hamas.
Netanyahu vows revenge after drone attack on his private residence…… Drone Attack At Netanyahu’s House, Claims Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to exact revenge after an attempted drone attack on his home. He blamed Hezbollah for the assault, calling it a “grave mistake.” Netanyahu promised that Iran and its proxies pay a “heavy price,” stating that Israel will continue to eliminate what it deems terror threats and those who support them. Netanyahu declared that Israel remains determined to achieve its war objectives, secure its borders and bring hostages home. “This will not deter me or the State of Israel from continuing our just war against our enemies in order to secure our future,” he said. The attack targeted Netanyahu’s northern Israel residence, though he and his wife were not there at the time.
Drone Attack At Netanyahu’s House, Claims Iran;
A Hezbollah drone was launched at Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence on Saturday. The Prime Minister’s Office said that Netanyahu and his wife were not at the location. No casualties were reported as a result of the incident. In an interview with Prof. Amatzia Baram, a Middle East expert, he shared insights into the security situation in the Middle East and the connections between Tehran, Hezbollah, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza. A key question raised during the conversation was whether Qassem reversed his position in a second speech, aligning with Nasrallah’s statement: no ceasefire in the north as long as the fighting in Gaza continued. Baram explained, “Hezbollah was ready for a ceasefire in any case, but Iran doesn’t want to appear as if it has abandoned Hamas. Thus, they are pushing for continued fighting in the north.” He added, “Tehran changed Qassem’s position, realigning Beirut with Nasrallah.” Baram highlighted the aftermath of Safieddine’s assassination as a “critical moment”. Recently, Hezbollah announced the “next phase of the fighting,” increasing rocket fire on Israel. Baram explained that these actions aim “to pressure Israel into agreeing to a ceasefire both in the north and in Gaza.” Isncluding attacks n Isreals leaser
Iran had tried to target Netanyahu amid the clashes.
Murderous intent or sending a message
A significant question addressed was whether Iran sought to target Netanyahu directly. Baram pointed to Hezbollah’s drone attack on Netanyahu’s Caesarea residence as evidence of Iran’s capability to strike close to his home. “The Iranians knew the drone wouldn’t hit Netanyahu directly, but it was a symbolic message. They want to show they can reach anywhere,” Baram said. He clarified that this was not a strategic strike, as Hezbollah did not deploy its heavy, precise missiles. “Iran is likely saving Hezbollah’s strategic missiles for a larger conflict—one involving Iran directly, not just Hezbollah. These missiles serve Iran’s goals, not Hezbollah’s,” he explained. Baram also discussed the challenges in countering Hezbollah’s drone operations. He mentioned that Hezbollah occasionally launches multiple drones at once, complicating Israel’s tracking efforts. “The main challenge is early detection, especially when the drones fly at low altitudes and slow speeds,” he said. While technological solutions are being developed, Baram emphasized that the process is slow. Despite Iran’s failure to directly harm Netanyahu this time they swore to try again
NN: The shit is about to hit the fan.
Hezbollah drone targeted Netanyahu’s private residence
Hezbollah is said to have launched a drone attack on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private residence in Caesarea, his office announced on Saturday. The drone crashed into a building in the nearby area, but Netanyahu and his wife were not home at the time. Two other drones were also launched from Lebanon but were intercepted by Israeli air defenses, causing sirens to go off in Tel Aviv. There were no reported injuries in the attack.
NN: Nice try but no cookie! Remember the AI programing is done primarily by lefty liberals. They believe that Sinwars death is a plus for the peace process. The recent price action in oil Friday reflected these fantasies. In fact the exact opposite is try. Its obvious that Israel’s first attack on Iran will be soon. And the attack will be on their leaders.
Iran Readies New Oil Outlet To Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Iran is closer to finding a way to circumvent the crucial Strait of Hormuz when it comes to oil exports. The Jask oil terminal, officially opened a few years ago, has seen but limited activity so far. However, recent satellite imagery reveals it has partially filled the facility with crude oil in what is being construed as a significant development in Tehran’s oil export strategy.
The importance of Jask has increased as of late as tensions with Israel grow. During periods of unrest, Iran has routinely threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for oil shipments for several Middle Eastern producers. Unfortunately for Iran, it also relies on the Strait for its oil exports—but perhaps its leanings on the Strait is abbot to lighten up.
Jask could enable Iran to reduce its reliance on this narrow waterway, freeing up options for the country. Jask has filled to about half capacity, imagery shows, but the facility’s challenges remain. The terminal was designed to load up to 1 million barrels per day and store 20 million barrels. However, only one of the three planned loading buoys has been installed, limiting its operational capacity. Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export hub, has in the past handled three times that volume, maintaining its status as the dominant outlet since the 1960s. The most recent loading activity at Jask occurred from September 9 to 19, 2024, when the Iranian supertanker Dune loaded approximately 2 million barrels of crude. This marks the first significant loading at Jask since its initial trial runs in 2021, according to TankerTrackers.com, a firm specializing in monitoring Iran’s oil shipments. The Jask terminal’s partial activity may signal a shift in Iran’s export strategies, aiming to bolster oil flows while mitigating the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz.