Billionaire Elon Musk said that he thinks only paper ballots should be allowed when voting in the United States elections as computers are “far too easy to hack.” Musk pointed out that he is someone who is in favor of computers and technology but warned that we “should not have computers do voting calculation at all” due to dangers of hacking. He insisted all voting should take place on paper ballots, in person with an ID.
How Israel Found & Killed Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar
Israeli troops had for more than a year hunted the leader of Hamas, who disappeared in Gaza soon after masterminding the 7 October attacks. Yahya Sinwar, 61, was said to have spent much of his time hiding in the tunnels under the Strip, along with a cadre of bodyguards and a “human shield” of hostages seized from Israel.
But ultimately, it appears he met his end in a chance encounter with an Israeli patrol in southern Gaza. His guard detail was small. No hostages were found.
The Israel Defense Forces says a unit from its 828th Bislamach Brigade was patrolling Tal al-Sultan, an area of Rafah, on Wednesday. Three fighters were identified and engaged by the Israeli troops – and all were eliminated. At that stage nothing seemed particularly remarkable about the firefight and the soldiers did not return to the scene until Thursday morning. It was then, as the dead were inspected, that one of the bodies was found to bear a striking resemblance to the leader of Hamas. The corpse however remained at the site due to suspected booby traps and instead, part of a finger was removed and sent to Israel for testing. His body was finally extracted and brought to Israel later that day as the area was made safe. Daniel Hagari, the IDF’s spokesman, said his forces “didn’t know he was there but we continued to operate”. He said his troops had identified the three men running from house to house, and engaged them before they split up. The man since identified as Sinwar “ran alone into one of the buildings” and was killed after being located with a drone. None of the hostages Sinwar was believed to be using as a human shield were present and his small retinue suggests either he was trying to move unnoticed, or had lost many of those protecting him.
Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, said: “Sinwar died while beaten, persecuted and on the run – he didn’t die as a commander, but as someone who only cared for himself. This is a clear message to all of our enemies.”
Drone footage released by the Israeli military late on Thursday was said to show Sinwar’s final moments before he was killed. The video appears to be shot from a drone flying through the open window of a mostly destroyed building. It approaches a man, with his head covered, sitting in an armchair on the first floor of a house that is littered with debris. The man, who seems to be injured, then throws what appears to be a stick at the drone and the video ends.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said “evil” had been “dealt a blow”, but warned the Israeli war in Gaza had not been completed. In short, Israeli forces had narrowed Sinwar’s rough location to the southern city of Rafah, and were slowly moving in to get him. Sinwar had been on the run for more than a year. He had undoubtedly felt the Israeli pressure growing as other Hamas leaders, such as Mohammad Dief and Ismail Haniyeh, were killed, and as Israel destroyed the infrastructure he had used to prosecute the atrocities of 7 October. In a statement, the IDF said its operations in recent weeks in the south had “restricted Yahya Sinwar’s operational movement as he was pursued by the forces and led to his elimination”. Killing Sinwar was a major goal for Israel, which marked him for death soon after the 7 October attacks. But his end does not end the war in Gaza. While Netanyahu said he had “settled the score”, he insisted the war would continue – not least to save the 101 hostages still held by Hamas.
BlackMask Pod cast: Iran the head of the stake
Biden: This is a good day for Israel, US, and the world
United States President Joe Biden on Thursday welcomed the confirmation of the killing of Hamas political leader Yahya Sinwar. “Early this morning, Israeli authorities informed my national security team that a mission they conducted in Gaza likely killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. DNA tests have now confirmed that Sinwar is dead. This is a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world,” Biden said in a statement published by the White House shortly after the IDF confirmed the news. In the statement, Biden revealed that following the attacks of October 7, US Special Operations and intelligence personnel worked closely with Israeli forces to track Hamas leadership. “With our intelligence help, the IDF relentlessly pursued Hamas’s leaders,” Biden said.
Chinese stocks jump after stronger-than-expected GDP
Major stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region traded mostly higher on Friday, following China’s gross domestic product (GDP) data which landed at 4.6% year on year in the third quarter of 2024, surpassing expectations. In addition, market participants also digested September’s industrial production and retail sales in China. In Japan, it was revealed that inflation fell from 3% to 2.5% in September. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite surged 2.31% at 7:20 am CET while the Shenzhen Composite soared 3.69% simultaneously. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.06% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 traded 0.19% higher at 7:19 am CET. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.51% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 closed losing 0.89%. The dollar traded 0.25% lower against the yen at 7:19 am CET, selling for 149.8090. China’s GDP landed at 4.6% in the third quarter of 2024, approaching the country’s 5% target. China’s industrial production climbed to a impressive 5.4% in September. Retail sales clocked in at a eye popping climb to 3.2%. NN: China has bottomed out. Stimulus is working. Oil demand has bottomed it will start climbing.
Netanyahu says war not yet over
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in an address on Thursday the death of Hamas’ chief Yahya Sinwar, while stating that the war in Gaza is not yet over. Netanyahu described Sinwar’s death as a “blow” to the forces of evil. At the same time, he maintained that Israel’s task is not yet complete, vowing that the conflict with Hamas will continue until all hostages are released. The prime minister stressed that Israel will not allow Hamas to rule over Gaza, calling Sinwar’s death an opportunity for the war-torn enclave’s people to free themselves from the militant group’s “tyranny.”
Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar among dead in IDF operation
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are currently reporting that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, was killed during a recent military operation in the Gaza Strip.
According to an official statement from the IDF, three Hamas fighters were eliminated, and initial assessments suggest a high likelihood that one of them could be Sinwar. The operation took place in a building where, according to the IDF, there were no indications of hostages present. A senior Israeli official has communicated to Hebrew media that the security establishment believes there is a substantial chance that Sinwar was among those killed. However, the IDF has yet to confirm the identities of the deceased militants. Images circulating on social media reportedly show Sinwar’s body, but there has been no official confirmation from Hamas regarding his status. As the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks on Israel and a pivotal figure in Hamas’s military strategy, Sinwar’s potential death could have significant ramifications for both the organization and the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. Sinwar, born in 1962, was one of the founding members of Hamas in 1987 and previously led the group’s security branch, earning a reputation for his harsh methods against perceived collaborators. Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in July, Sinwar ascended to leadership of Hamas in August 2023. His absence could trigger a power struggle within the organization as various factions vie for control.
Oil Most Bearish Since the 2008 Financial Crisis
- Oil prices remained flat on Wednesday after a 4% drop due to easing concerns about potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply.
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast, citing weak Chinese demand, while revising up its 2025 growth estimate.
- Analysts from Standard Chartered note discrepancies between supply estimates from IEA, OPEC, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, suggesting the perceived 2025 oversupply might be exaggerated.
Oil prices are little changed in Wednesday’s intraday sessions after they tumbled more than 4% on Tuesday to a near two-week low on easing Iranian supply disruption fears. According to a report by the Washington Post, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told the Biden administration that Israel is willing to strike Iran’s military infrastructure rather than oil or nuclear facilities, and that Israel would take U.S. opinion into consideration. The pressure on oil prices has been compounded by other developments after the International Energy Agency lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for the third month in a row to 862K bbl/day, down from its prior view of 903K bbl/day. According to the IEA, global oil demand increased by 680K bbl/day in Q3, its slowest growth clip since Q4 2022 when China was in full lockdown. To complicate matters, Chinese demand contracted by 500K bbl/day Y/Y in August, more than double the average decline of 190K bbl/day since April. On a more positive note, the IEA has revised its 2025 global oil demand growth estimate to 998K bbl/day up from 954K bbl/day previously. As commodity experts Standard Chartered have observed, oil prices in October-to-date have been as erratic as its September gyrations. The Brent forward curve remains very flat, with an almost parallel downwards shift over the past week. According to StanChart,
The prevailing tone of market sentiment, particularly among the more speculative traders, remains overwhelmingly bearish, on par with that in late 2008 at the start of the Global Financial Crisis.
StanChart notes that the main themes currently dominating oil markets are expectations of macroeconomic hard landings, extreme oil demand weakness, and persistent fears of oversupplied oil markets in 2025. However, the commodity experts have argued that the oversupply concerns may be overblown given the ongoing supply-side opaqueness. StanChart points out that whereas the market has been focusing more on the considerable gap between IEA and OPEC Secretariat estimates of demand growth, relatively little attention has been given to even larger differences between IEA and U.S .Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates of OPEC+ (also known as Declaration of Cooperation, DoC) oil output. The IEA sees OPEC crude oil output 700kb/d higher, DoC crude oil output 967kb/d higher and total DoC liquids output 1.323mb/d higher. The OPEC Secretariat figures–the average of seven secondary-source assessments (energy consultancies, EIA and media)–are closer to the EIA rather than the IEA estimates. StanChart points out that the difference between the IEA and the EIA DoC supply estimates is roughly commensurate with the IEA’s inferred 2025 surplus. That’s an important point to bear in mind considering that the IEA’s prediction of 2025 oversupply is largely to blame for the current ultra-bearish market sentiment, meaning that the 2025 surplus that has led to lower 2024 prices could primarily be made up of ghost, rather than real, barrels. StanChart says that the considerable differences in supply/demand estimates by the leading energy agencies also matter in terms of OPEC producer policy. For instance, according to the EIA, the UAE produced just 18kb/d above target in September, while the IEA sees the overrun as a substantial 348 kb/d. On a more bullish note, StanChart has worked out that the IEA model implies a global stock draw of 370 kb/d in Q3-2024, even with up to 1.3mb/d of [possible] ghost barrels. Further, StanChart’s model shows a small H1-2025 supply deficit of 0.2 mb/d, even if voluntary output cuts are scaled back, but only if Russia, Iraq and Kazakhstan compensate for past overproduction. Back in July, the three OPEC+ members submitted their compensation plans to the OPEC Secretariat for overproduced crude volumes for the first six months of 2024. According to OPEC, the entire over-produced volumes will be fully compensated for over the next 15 months through September 2025, with Russia ‘paying back’ a cumulative 480 kb/d, Iraq 1,184 kb/d and Kazakhstan 620 kb/d.
StanChart says that traders have adopted a largely short-term approach by reacting to hourly news feeds but are not pricing in the potential for longer-term changes in Iran’s foreign relations, or even Iranian reactions to any further attacks on it. StanChart has predicted that oil prices will drift higher when the dust of the short-term headlines eventually clears.
NN: We cover the trade implications in coming BlackMask Market News and Commentary streaming update later today
US said to expect Israel’s Iran attack before Nov. 5
Washington DC expects Israel will launch its retaliatory attack on Iran before the United States presidential Election Day on November 5, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. However, the sources pointed out that the exact scheduling and strategy for Israel’s response remain unknown and that its government does not seem to seek to tie the timing of its actions to the US election. Still, they also noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pays close attention to the political situation in the US and does not want to cause negative consequences to his country. Earlier in the day, it was reported that Israel’s plan of retaliation to Iran for its missile attack on October 1 was ready. Previously, it was said that Netanyahu told the US his country will not seek to strike nuclear and oil targets in Iran.
Israel’s plan to respond to Iran allegedly ready
Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s missile attack on October 1 is ready, CNN reported on Wednesday, citing a person familiar with the issue. The unidentified source did not disclose further details of the plan. Iran’s missile attack on Israel on October 1 came in response to the deaths of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and senior military official Fuad Shukr in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly promised the United States that his country’s retaliation will not target nuclear and oil targets in Iran.
Iran vows ‘decisive and regretful response’ if Israel strikes
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (pictured) told United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres that his country is “is fully prepared for a decisive and regretful response” in case Israel decides to attack it in response to the recent missile strikes from Tehran, the Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday. During the conversation, Araghchi also stressed the importance of “maintaining peace and stability in the region” and insisted Tehran is “making all-out efforts to protect the peace and security” but would have to act in case of “any adventures” by Israel. Meanwhile, Guterres expressed concern about rising tensions in the Middle East and called for a “political solution.” Israel reportedly reached a decision on Tuesday on how it would respond to the Iranian attack that Tehran carried out in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The response still needs to be approved by the country’s security cabinet. NN: This party is not over just postponed until after the elections.
Cryptos rise, Bitcoin jumps to highest point since July
the stupid money got in i got out
The world’s largest cryptocurrencies continued to grow on Tuesday, with Bitcoin’s price climbing to its highest level since late July, surpassing the $67,000 mark. The recent gains in the digital token market appear to be linked with growing prospects of Donald Trump’s potential victory in the November presidential elections, with the Republican candidate holding a slight lead over his Democratic contender Kamala Harris in critical swing states. The latest poll by Harvard CAPS/Harris showed that 48% of voters showed support for Trump, while 47% of those surveyed favored Harris. Bitcoin climbed 2.44% to trade at $67,708.40 at 9:58 am ET. Ethereum advanced 1.65% to $2,670.80.