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API Crude Oil, Product Inventories Climb

Crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 1.96 million barrels for the week ending September 13, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a 100,000-barrel drop. For the week prior, the API reported a 2.79-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories.

So far this year, crude oil inventories are 10.9 million barrels under where they were at the start of the year, according to API data.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.6 million barrels as of Sept 13. Inventories are now at 380.6 million barrels. The SPR is now up nearly 34 million from its multi-decade low last summer, although still down 254 million from when President Biden took office. Oil prices rose on Wednesday ahead of the API data release. At 2:31 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up +$0.87 (1.20%) on the day at $73.62—up nearly $4 from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading up on the day by $1.07 (+1.53%) at $71.16—up nearly $5 per barrel from last Tuesday as the market waits nervously for a decision from the Fed on interest rates. Gasoline inventories rose this week, by 2.34 million barrels, more than offsetting last week’s 513,000-barrel decrease.  As of last week, gasoline inventories are 1% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels, adding onto last week’s smaller 191,000-barrel increase. Distillates were already about 8% below the five-year average for the week ending September 6, the latest EIA data shows. NN: I want to see todays EIA data

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Pagers that exploded made by BAC Consulting in Budapest

 

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — Taiwanese company Gold Apollo said Wednesday that it authorized its brand on the pagers that exploded in Lebanon and Syria but that another company based in Budapest manufactured them. Pagers used by the militant group Hezbollah exploded near-simultaneously Tuesday in Lebanon and Syria, killing at least nine people, including an 8-year-old girl, and wounding nearly 3,000. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government blamed Israel for what appeared to be a sophisticated remote attack.

The AR-924 pagers were manufactured by BAC Consulting KFT, based in Hungary’s capital, according to a statement released Wednesday by Gold Apollo.

“According to the cooperation agreement, we authorize BAC to use our brand trademark for product sales in designated regions, but the design and manufacturing of the products are solely the responsibility of BAC,” the statement read. Gold Apollo chair Hsu Ching-kuang told journalists Wednesday that his company has had a licensing agreement with BAC for the past three years, but did not provide evidence of the contract. At about 3:30 p.m. Tuesday, as people shopped for groceries, sat in cafes or drove cars and motorcycles, the pagers in their hands or pockets started heating up and then exploding — leaving blood-splattered scenes and panicking bystanders. It appeared that many of those hit were members of Hezbollah, but it was not immediately clear if non-Hezbollah members also carried any of the exploding pagers. The blasts were mainly in areas where the group has a strong presence, particularly a southern Beirut suburb and in the Beqaa region of eastern Lebanon, as well as in Damascus, according to Lebanese security officials and a Hezbollah official. The Hezbollah official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. Hezbollah, which has pointed the blame at Israel, said in a statement Wednesday morning that it would continue its normal strikes against Israel “as in all the past days” as part of what it describes as a support front for its ally, Hamas, and Palestinians in Gaza. “This path is continuous and separate from the difficult reckoning that the criminal enemy must await for its massacre on Tuesday that it committed against our people, our families and our fighters in Lebanon,” it said. “This is another reckoning that will come, God willing.” At hospitals in Beirut on Wednesday, the chaos of the night before had largely subsided, but relatives of the wounded continued to wait. Lebanon’s Health Minister Firas Abiad told journalists during a tour on hospitals Wednesday morning that many of the wounded suffered “severe injuries to the eyes” and others had limbs amputated. Journalists were not allowed to enter hospital rooms or film patients. The health minister said that the wounded had been distributed among all the area hospitals to avoid any single facility being overloaded and added that Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Syria and Egypt offered to help in treating the patients. Earlier Wednesday, an Iraqi military plane landed in Beirut carrying medical equipment, airport officials said. Abiad said the plane was carrying 15 tons of medicine and medical equipment. Experts believe explosive material was put into the pagers prior to their delivery and use in a sophisticated supply chain infiltration. The AR-924 pager, advertised as being “rugged,” contains a rechargeable lithium battery, according to specifications once advertised on Gold Apollo’s website before it was apparently taken down Tuesday after the sabotage attack. It could receive texts of up to 100 characters. It also claimed to have up to 85 days of battery life. That would be crucial in Lebanon, where electricity outages have been common after years of economic collapse. Pagers also run on a different wireless network than mobile phones, making them more resilient in emergencies — one of the reasons why many hospitals worldwide still rely on them.  Hezbollah, the militants also looked at the pagers as a means to sidestep what’s believed to be intensive Israeli electronic surveillance on mobile phone networks in Lebanon.

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2,750 wounded when Hezbollah members’ pagers explode across Lebanon

At least eight people were killed and some 2,750 others were injured Tuesday when the pagers used by Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon in the most serious security breach targeting the Iran-backed militant group, according to Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad. Abiad said during a press conference that of the 2,750 wounded, 200 were in critical condition and undergoing surgery. He said the wounded were taken to 100 hospitals, and most suffered injuries of the eyes and hands. A Hezbollah statement said pagers used by a number of employees in the group’s various units and institutions exploded at 3:30 p.m. local time and led to the killing of a girl and two “[Hezbollah] brothers” and the injury of a large number of other people. The statement, which described the explosions as “mysterious,” said the group’s agencies “are currently conducting a wide-ranging security and scientific investigation to determine the reasons that led to these simultaneous explosions.” In a second statement, Hezbollah held “the Israeli enemy” the full responsibility for “this criminal aggression, vowing that “it will certainly receive its just punishment. Mehdi Ammar, the 40-year-old son of Hezbollah deputy in the parliament Ali Ammar, was among the killed. The sons of two other Hezbollah deputies were injured. Among the wounded was the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, who escaped with slight injuries from a pager explosion. Ammar said the explosions were “a direct Israeli aggression” and that his group “will deal with the [Israeli] enemy in the language that he understands.” Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces said the explosions occurred in a number of Lebanon regions, particularly in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the stronghold of Hezbollah, and southern Lebanon. Hospitals in various Lebanese regions went on high alert while ambulances transporting the injured rushed through the city’s crowded streets. Urgent appeals for blood donations were made via the social media and television stations. Civilians were asked to stay home and clear the roads to enable ambulances, medical and nursing crews, and those wishing to donate blood to reach the hospitals quickly. Hezbollah and Israel have been engaged in cross-border attacks since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza last October. Israel has been threatening to expands its attacks on Hezbollah to force the withdrawal of its fighters from the border area and allow the return of thousands of displaced Israelis to their homes in northern Israel. Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “Israeli cyber-attack.” The ministry described the attack as a “dangerous and deliberate Israeli escalation,” which came at a time Israel threatened “to expand the scope of the war” against Lebanon. It added that it was preparing to file a complaint to the United Nations Security Council.

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More than 2800 injured in Lebanon exploding pager blasts……… Hezbollah blames Israel for pager blasts, vows retaliation

Lebanon’s acting Health Minister Firas Abiad said in a press conference on Tuesday that more than 2800 persons were wounded and 8 killed in a series of pager blasts across Lebanon. According to Abiad, a child was among those killed, confirming a previous statement by Hezbollah in which the militant organization called on the Lebanese to resist Israeli attempts at psychological warfare, adding it is investigating the causes of the explosions. The ministry stated the highest number of injuries were in the hand, adding hospitals continue to receive the wounded.

Hezbollah blames Israel for pager blasts, vows retaliation

Hezbollah issued a statement on Tuesday blaming Israel for pager blasts across Lebanon which resulted in 8 deaths and more than 2800 injuries, vowing retaliation for what it referred to as a “sinful aggression.” “Our martyrs and wounded are the title of our jihad and sacrifices on the road to Jerusalem, a victory for our honorable people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and continuous field support, and our position of support and support for the valiant Palestinian resistance,” the militant organization stated. Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants condemned Israel for a “cyber attack that led to the explosion of a large number of Pagers communication devices in several Lebanese regions,” accusing Tel Aviv of “dangerous and deliberate escalation.”

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Netanyahu could fire armed forces chief of staff

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could replace Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi (pictured), Israeli media reported on Tuesday. According to sources, Netanyahu agreed to appoint a different military leader in discussions with the potential new Defense Minister Gideon Sa’ar. Netanyahu is rumored to be planning to sack current Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and replace him with Sa’ar, although the timing of the decision is unknown. It is also unclear whether Netanyahu and Sa’ar would dismiss Halevi or let him resign.

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Oil Prices Extend Gains on U.S. Supply Concerns and Additional OPEC+ cuts

Crude oil prices extended gains made at the start of the week as a significant portion of U.S. production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico remained shut-in, following Hurricane Francine. An additional driver for oil prices came from traders expecting inventory declines over the week to September 13. The American Petroleum Institute reports inventory estimated later today and the EIA releases its report on Wednesday. Per a Reuters poll, crude oil inventories could have shed some 200,000 bpd in the reporting period. Platforms and being reopened but 12% of oil production capacity and 16% of gas production capacity are still shut, Reuters reported earlier today. That’s still down from about 20% of oil capacity and 28% of natural gas capacity as of Sunday. The disruption caused by Francine on Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production pushed oil prices higher last week and the boost appears to have endured longer than one might expect, especially in light of reports that bearish bets on oil hit an all-time high also last week.

“This historic speculative selling pressure prompted a more than $10/bbl collapse in crude prices between late August and this past Tuesday,” Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston wrote in a note cited by Reuters.

However, the supply disruption in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and expectations that the Fed will later this week announce a long-awaited interest rate cut seems to have reversed sentiment, at least temporarily. This pushed Brent crude above $73 per barrel earlier today, with West Texas Intermediate topping $70 per barrel. “Growing expectations of an aggressive rate cut boosted sentiment across the commodities complex,” ANZ analysts said, as quoted by Reuters. Crude oil prices have declined by about 14% since the start of the third quarter, mostly because of weaker-than-expected economic data from top importer China. OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its supply cuts and members who exceeded their quotes have agreed a compensation schedule in addition to the recently announced reduction in targets due to delaying the implementation of tapering. This will result in significant increases in production cuts.
NN:
OPEC production will drop  even more on top of present cuts:
530,000 b/d lower in Q4-2024
540,000  b/d lower in Q1 and Q2-2025 
560,000  kb/d lower in Q3-2025
By my calculations.
Funny thing it is in what they forgot to tell you
Other Analysts Look at Oil Price Rise

Rebecca Babin, a senior equity trader for CIBC Private Wealth in New York said Crude is trading higher today due to ongoing disruption in Libyan oil flows, as the UN was unable to reach an agreement over the weekend. That’s what, adding that, “with bearish market positioning, there is limited supply to cover shorts, further supporting the rally”.

Brian Leisen, a Global Oil Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said he doesn’t think there is anything fundamental driving price action today. “A lot of the focus since Friday and over the weekend has been on positioning and trade flows, which have been extremely negative,” he said. “Seeing a bounce in spot prices today is more of a function of being sold down so heavily this month,” he added. “From a physical perspective we’ve seen mixed reactions from the recent sell off, with some grades still having trouble finding a bid, but there have been green shoots for some grades now pricing competitively enough to get a positive reaction from traders, indicating a near term fundamental floor for crude prices,” Leisen went on to state.

Rania Gule, a Senior Market Analyst at XS.com. In a market comment on September 12,, said oil prices will continue to experience significant volatility in the near term. “The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, disruptions from natural factors such as tropical storms, and geopolitical tensions and production interruptions in key countries all contribute to market instability,” Gule said in the comment. “However, a sharp collapse in prices seems unlikely, especially if OPEC continues to adjust production in line with global demand,” Gule added. “The big question remains how the market will respond to forthcoming geopolitical and economic events, and whether major economies will face sharp slowdowns affecting global oil demand,” Gule continued.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reduced its Brent and WTI spot price forecasts for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently. According to its September STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $82.80 per barrel this year and $84.09 per barrel next year and the WTI spot price averaging $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025.

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Gallant: Military action against Hezbollah only solution

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that only military action against Hezbollah can ensure the safe return of evacuated residents of northern Israel to their homes. Gallant made his remark during a meeting with United States President Joe Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein who arrived in Israel on Monday to discuss the ongoing tensions in the Middle East with Israeli officials. The likelihood of a ceasefire deal with Hamas in Gaza is “running out” as Hezbollah continues to “tie itself” to the Gaza-based militant organization, it was stated in the meeting readout posted by Israel’s Defense Ministry. Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border are running high, with both parties conducting frequent attacks on their opponents’ positions amid speculations about a possible escalation of the conflict into a full-blown war.

Netanyahu said to sack Gallant as defense minister

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to remove Yoav Gallant from his position as defense minister and appoint former justice minister Gideon Sa’ar as his replacement, Israeli Broadcasting Corporation reported on Monday, citing a source from the prime minister’s office. Netanyahu has threatened to dismiss Gallant multiple times in the past, mainly due to disagreements regarding military operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Gallant opposes an immediate attack and actively supports pursuing a diplomatic solution and implementing a ceasefire instead. In response to the reports, Netanyahu’s office said that “the publications regarding negotiations with Gideon Sa’ar [to replace Gallant] are incorrect.”

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Ukraine denies links to ‘delusional’ suspect in Trump assassination attempt

MOSCOW, Sept 16 (Reuters) – The Kremlin said on Monday that the Ukrainian links of the alleged shooter in the assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump showed that “playing with fire” had consequences.
The remark was a clear reference to the United States’ support of Ukraine against Russia. Washington has sent tens of billions of dollars of military aid to Kyiv in an attempt to help Ukrainian forces defeat Russia.
Officials say Secret Service agents spotted a rifle barrel poking out of the bushes as they were clearing holes on the course ahead of Trump, then fired on a gunman near the property line, only a few hundred yards from where the former president was playing. Asked about what the FBI called an apparent assassination attempt on Trump, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:“It is not us who should be thinking, it is the U.S. intelligence services who should be thinking. In any case, playing with fire has its consequences.” Peskov, when asked if the assassination attempt risked destabilising the United States, said it was not really Russia’s business, though Russia was monitoring the situation. “We see how tense the situation is there, including between political competitors,” Peskov said. “The political struggle is escalating, and a variety of methods are being used.” CNN, Fox News and the New York Times identified the suspect as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, of Hawaii, citing unidentified law enforcement officials.
Three social media accounts bearing Routh’s name suggest he was an avid supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia. The New York Times reported it had interviewed Routh in 2023 for an article about Americans who were volunteering to help the Ukraine war effort.
Routh told the Times he’d travelled to Ukraine and spent several months there in 2022 and was trying to recruit Afghan soldiers who fled the Taliban to fight in Ukraine.

Our Standards: NN: Something is very Strange here.

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Ten Money Managers Exit Eisler as Hedge Fund’s Gains Stall

Hedge fund Eisler Capital has seen a fresh round of departures as its transformation into a multistrategy hedge fund faces a period of poor returns and an intense war for talent with peers. About 10 money managers have left the $4 billion hedge fund firm in recent days, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The exits include people leaving voluntarily as well as those the firm has dismissed, the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private. New York-based senior money manager Mark Mallon, one of Eisler’s first employees, has left the company along with his team. Leo Niemelainen, who joined in February, has departed along with Matt Haigh, Will Bartlett, Hardeep Jhutti and Bernd Kuhlenschmidt. A representative for the London-based investment firm declined to comment. The money managers named in the story either didn’t respond or declined to comment. Eisler Capital employs around 300 people globally and its hedge fund gained 0.06% through August this year, Bloomberg News has reported previously. By comparison, the PivotalPath Multi-Strategy Index, which tracks 70 hedge funds managing a combined $342 billion, has climbed 6.5%, with established peers such as Marshall Wace, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Walleye Capital, Point72 Asset Management, Citadel and Millennium Management outperforming many peers. The churn at Eisler is on top of several traders who left the firm earlier this year after it largely pulled back from money-losing bets on emerging-markets interest rates and some of those departees disagreed over investment strategy with Sam Wisnia, a top deputy to founder Edward Eisler. Among those who left in the earlier round were portfolio managers including Ying Zhang, Devvrat Tripathi and Johan Kurtz, Bloomberg News reported in May. Founded in 2015 by Eisler, a former co-head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s global securities unit, Eisler Capital has been transforming itself into a multistrategy hedge fund from its roots in macro trading. It shuttered its first money pool in 2022 and ditched plans to start another so it could focus on deploying teams across strategies. Prior to the latest round of departures, Eisler had more than 60 investment teams that worked across fixed income, equity, macro and commodities strategies. Multistrategy hedge funds are constantly engaged in an intense war for talent and frequent hiring and departures of traders are common. Yet the churn at Eisler has drawn industry attention, with some money managers stopped from trading well before reaching some loss thresholds set by the firm.

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Orban: It is clear that Trump’s life is in danger

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed on Monday concern for former US President Donald Trump’s safety following an assassination attempt at Trump’s Florida golf club. Orban took to social media, stating that Trump’s life would remain at risk until he wins the upcoming presidential election. “It is clear that President Trump’s life is in danger, until his victory. We are praying for you, Mr. President!” Orban wrote on X. The incident occurred when Secret Service agents opened fire on a man hiding in the bushes near the golf course. The suspect, armed with an AK-47 and other gear, fled but was later apprehended. The FBI has joined the investigation, and US authorities are treating the case as an attempt on Trump’s life. NN:  His security is still a joke. The trick is to keep the protected perimeter around Trump small. Still leaving him vulnerable to a sniper. The latest sniper  got within 400 yards The average sniper can easily hit a target from 800 yards. Now don’t get me started on what a slightly modified China DJI drone can do. They can be bought on Amazon for under $1000. Ask the Ukrainians.