Donald Trump has reportedly considered the possibility of losing the 2024 election—and if that happens, he has plans for a one-way ticket to Venezuela. According to Vanity Fair, speaking to Elon Musk on Monday, the former president said, “If something happens with this election, which would be a horror show, we’ll meet the next time in Venezuela, because it’ll be a far safer place to meet than our country. So you and I will go and we’ll have a meeting and dinner in Venezuela.” Trump’s comment about dinner in Venezuela comes at a surprising moment following Tuesday’s first—and possibly only—presidential debate. During his presidency, Trump imposed severe sanctions on the oil-rich nation. In August 2017, the Trump administration enacted sanctions that cut off Venezuela’s access to U.S. financial markets, later expanding them in May 2018 to block the purchase of Venezuelan debt According to The Hill, Trump’s sanctions continue to impact the daily lives of Venezuelans, with his “maximum pressure” strategy to oust Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro contributing to an increased flow of refugees into neighboring countries and North America. Trump’s oil sanctions had a significant effect on Venezuela’s crude oil production. The Hill notes that “Five years since Trump’s oil sanctions announcement, Venezuela has finally managed to escape the worst of the crisis.” Despite some sanctions being lifted and an increase in oil exports, Venezuela still has not recovered production to 1 million barrels per day. NN: If Trump does not get elected he needs to head for the hills. Otherwise he will spend the rest of his life in jail. Like they do in other socialist commie shit holes. Its called locking up the opposition…..
IEA cuts 2024 oil demand growth (slightly) on China
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 7.2%, to 900,000 bpd, it said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, The Paris-based agency cited a slowdown in Chinese demand as the main driver of weaker global demand growth. It now expects Chinese demand to grow by only 180,000 bpd in 2024 as a broader macroeconomic slowdown coincides with higher uptake of electric vehicles. “With the steam seemingly running out of Chinese oil demand growth, and only modest increases or declines in most other countries, current trends reinforce our expectation that global demand will plateau by the end of this decade,” the IEA said.
Oil prices , pared early gains after release of the report.
There is a wide split in 2024 demand growth forecasts owing to differences over China and the pace of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also cut its 2024 forecast this week, though its view remains far higher than the IEA’s. OPEC projects oil demand growth at 2.03 million bpd in 2024 and 1.74 million bpd in 2025, but back-to-back cuts to its forecasts also underline the challenges the producer group is facing in balancing the market.
The IEA left its 2025 demand growth forecast unchanged at about 950,000 bpd but suggested that the global oil market could be oversupplied next year if the wider OPEC+ producer group proceeds with its plan to unwind voluntary output cuts. Rising global oil supply is being driven by higher non-OPEC output, the IEA said, with the agency forecasting non-OPEC supply growth at 1.5 million bpd for this year and next, with higher production from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil. “With non-OPEC+ supply rising faster than overall demand – barring a prolonged stand-off in Libya – OPEC+ may be staring at a substantial surplus,” the IEA said.
Highlights
- Global oil demand growth continues to decelerate, with reported 1H24 gains of 800 kb/d y-o-y the lowest since 2020. The chief driver of this downturn is a rapidly slowing China, where consumption contracted y-o-y for a fourth straight month in July, by 280 kb/d. Average annual gains of 900 kb/d in 2024, compared to 2.1 mb/d last year, will take demand to almost 103 mb/d. An increase of 950 kb/d in 2025 will be equally subdued.
- World supply rose by 80 kb/d to 103.5 mb/d in August, with outages caused by a political dispute in Libya combined with maintenance in Norway and Kazakhstan offset by higher flows from Guyana, Brazil and elsewhere. Annual gains strengthen from 660 kb/d this year to 2.1 mb/d in 2025. Non-OPEC+ increases by 1.5 mb/d this year and next, while OPEC+ may fall by 810 kb/d in 2024 but rise by 540 kb/d next year if voluntary cuts stay in place.
- Global refinery throughputs are forecast to increase by 440 kb/d to 83 mb/d in 2024, and by 630 kb/d to 83.7 mb/d next year. Much weaker than expected Chinese runs in July and a further deterioration in margins continue to weigh on the forecast. Cracking margins briefly turned negative in Europe and Singapore. US Gulf Coast cracking margins are more resilient, but they have nevertheless fallen by two-thirds versus year-ago levels.
- Global observed oil stocks declined by 47.1 mb in July. The drawdown was concentrated in crude oil, NGLs and feedstocks (-75.5 mb), while oil products built to their highest level since January 2021. OECD industry stocks fell counter-seasonally by 12.3 mb in July to stand 78.5 mb below the five-year average. Preliminary data show continued stock declines in August.
- Oil prices spiralled lower in August and early September, with ICE Brent futures plunging by about $10/bbl as floundering Chinese demand and economic headwinds heightened oversupply fears. Investor selling added to the bearish sentiment, with net speculative exchange holdings slumping to multi-year lows. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $70/bbl – the lowest level since late-2021 and down $20/bbl from April’s 2024 high.
EiA Weekly Oil Report
Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 6, 2024
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 419.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending September 6, 2024, which was 141 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.8% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.9 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.1 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 7.3% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 643 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 201 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five year
average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 13% above the five year
average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 9.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels a day, down by 2.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels a day, up by 0.9% from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 0.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 2.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Israel Offers Hamas Leader Safe Exit From Gaza in Bid to End War
Israel proposed giving Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the group freeing the hostages it holds and giving up control of the strip, a senior official said, even as doubts deepen about the two sides’ ability to reach any cease-fire accord.
“I’m ready to provide safe passage to Sinwar, his family, whoever wants to join him,” Israel hostage envoy Gal Hirsch said in an interview Tuesday in the Bloomberg News Washington bureau. “We want the hostages back. We want demilitarization, de-radicalization of course — a new system that will manage Gaza.”
Hirsch said he put the offer of safe passage on the table a day and a half ago and declined to characterize the response so far. He reiterated that Israel would also be willing to release prisoners it holds as part of any dea Hirsch described the offer as part of an effort to come up with new solutions as prospects for a cease-fire look more and more dim. The US, Qatar and Egypt are working to present Israel with a new cease-fire proposal, but Hirsch said Hamas has so far sought to dictate terms rather than negotiate. It’s unclear whether Hamas would accept the proposal for Sinwar to leave Gaza, especially given Israel’s history of operations targeting operatives abroad. Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31 in Tehran. But Iran has said the killing — Haniyeh was slain in a bomb blast at a Tehran guest house — was Israel’s handiwork. Adding to the stakes, Israelis see Sinwar as both the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks that triggered the Hamas-Israel conflict and a symbol of Palestinian armed struggle. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has done in the past, Hirsch compared Sinwar to Hitler. “In parallel, I must work on plan B, C and D because I must bring the hostages back home,” Hirsch said. “The clock is ticking, the hostages do not have time.” Further adding to doubts around the safe-passage idea, Hirsch vowed what he called a “Munich-type response” to target those who killed six Israeli hostages in late August. That was a reference to the years-long assassination campaign Israel launched after Palestinian militants killed 11 Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics in Munich, Germany. “There will be a price for these murders,” Hirsch said of the recent hostage deaths. Israeli leaders have floated the idea of exile for Hamas leaders before. In May, Netanyahu told the podcast “Call Me Back” that the idea of exile “is there, we have always discussed it, but I think the most important thing is that they surrender. If they lay down their arms, the war is over.”
How Kamala Harris Baited Trump Into a Debate on Her Terms……. Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris for president
Trump allowed himself to be distracted from his efforts to define Harris, while she hammered her core argument that the former president was unfit for the job.
Kamala Harris staked her debate strategy on Tuesday night on trolling Donald Trump before a national TV audience, leaving her opponent on the back foot.
The Democratic presidential nominee baited her Republican opponent into defending his felony convictions, his wealth and his role in overturning the federal right to an abortion. She needled him about the enthusiasm of his rally crowds and his propensity for outlandish statements and conspiracy theories.
It took only minutes for the former president to validate her approach, with Trump diverting a discussion over immigration and border security into unfounded online rumors about undocumented migrants, who he said were now eating people’s pets in an Ohio suburb.
“The people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country, and it’s a shame,” Trump said, even as one of the debate moderators, ABC News’ David Muir, noted that the claims were not true.The moment embodied the former president’s lack of restraint, and defined a clash where the Republican time and again allowed himself to be distracted from his efforts to define Harris. Instead, post-debate analysis and social media was focused on Trump’s outbursts, returning focus to Harris’ core argument — that the former president was unfit for the job.
Harris Baits Trump Into Going Off Topic In Fiery Debate
The performance amounted to a tactical misstep for the Republican, who polls had shown in recent days had begun to blunt the explosion of Democratic enthusiasm in the aftermath of former President Joe Biden stepping aside in favor of Harris. Signs that the night had not gone well for Trump were plentiful: The Republican appeared in the so-called spin room to proclaim victory even as he berated the debate moderators as unfair and suggested he wasn’t inclined to participate in another debate. Harris’ odds of winning the election increased on the betting website PredictIt to 56%, up from 53% before the debate. Given Harris’ aggressiveness and agility on the stage as a former prosecutor, she consistently managed to steer the debate to spotlight Trump’s demeanor and his record rather than Harris’ own not-yet-fully-formed policy agenda. It was a night in which style overtook substance; the debate was more on her terms than his, and afterwards, she challenged Trump to a second debate. Even moments when Trump should have had the advantage, such as on questions of the economy or the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Harris managed to rile him enough that his attacks on her did not fully land. At the same time, her often bemused expression showed she refused to take him as seriously as his previous opponents had.
“He took the bait and it was evident in the increasingly hostile language that he used to describe the people he hates,” longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz said after the debate. The former president, who bragged that he had not prepped for the contest, appeared less prepared — including when he was asked if he had a plan for replacing the Affordable Care Act.
Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris for president
Sept. 11 (UPI) — Pop superstar Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris for president Tuesday night following the vice president’s televised debate against former President Donald Trump. Swift announced her endorsement of Harris to her more than 283 million followers on Instagram as the debate aired live on ABC concluded. “Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight,” Swift said in the post. “I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election. I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.” The “Shake It Off” singer described Harris as “steady-handed” and a “gifted leader” while praising Walz, the governor of Minnesota, for standing up for LGBTQ+ rights, in vitro fertilization and women’s access to abortion. “I believe we can accomplish so much more in this country if we are led by calm and not chaos,” she said, echoing Harris’ description of what another Trump term would look like. While broadcasting whom she was to vote for, Swift did not instruct her followers to do the same, but to research both candidates. She signed the post “Childless Cat Lady,” in reference to Trumps’ vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, having said in a 2021 interview that the Democratic Party was led by “a bunch of childless cat ladies.”
Crude Oil Inventories Dip Again
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell by another 2.79 million barrels for the week ending September 6, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API). Analysts had expected a 700,000-barrel build.
For the week prior, the API reported a 7.4-million-barrel decrease in crude inventories.
So far this year, crude oil inventories are more than 12 million barrels under where they were at the start of the year, according to API data.
On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by another 0.3 million barrels as of Sept 6. Inventories are now at 380 million barrels. The SPR is now up 33 million from its multi-decade low last summer, although still down 255 million from when President Biden took office. Gasoline inventories also fell this week, by 513,000 barrels, on top of last week’s 300,000-barrel decrease. As of last week, gasoline inventories are 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, according to the latest EIA data. Distillate inventories rose by 191,000 barrels, partially counteracting last week’s 400,000-barrel decrease. Distillates were already about 10% below the five-year average for the week ending August 30, the latest EIA data shows.
Cushing inventories saw another large draw, with a loss of 2.6 million barrels, according to API data, compared to the 800,000-barrel draw from the previous week.
NN: I have been clear…. Do it my way, back your bet and buy the shit of oil WTI will not be this low much longer
Poll: 63% viewers say Harris won debate……. Musk: Harris performed well in debate, but Trump still better choice…..
Most registered voters who watched the presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump said the Democrat won the face-off, an instant CNN/SSRS poll showed. According to the flash poll of debate watchers, 63% saw Harris as the winner, while 37% believed Trump performed better. However, the survey stressed that the poll isn’t representative of the views of the full voting public, but stressed that poll participants who saw the debate were were 6 points likelier to be Republican-aligned than Democratic-aligned. Ahead of the debate, the same voters were divided 50%-50% when asked who they expected to come out on top in the debate.
Musk: Harris performed well in debate, but Trump still better choice
Billionaire Elon Musk praised Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ performance in last night’s presidential debate, but insisted he still thinks GOP candidate Donald Trump is a better option to become the next United States president, as he is better at “getting things done.” “While I don’t think the debate hosts were fair to @realDonaldTrump, @KamalaHarris exceeded most people’s expectations tonight,”
Musk said in a post on X. “That said, when it comes to getting things done, not just saying nice-sounding words, I strongly believe that Trump will do a far better job. After all, if Kamala can do great things, why hasn’t she?
Biden rarely shows up for work, so she’s basically in charge already. The question comes down to this: do you want current trends to continue for 4 more years or do you want change?” he added. Musk endorsed Trump following the assassination attempt on him and since then, Trump has stated he could give him a job in his administration if elected.
Traders are overestimating a supply glut,
Oil market participants are “dramatically overestimating” a supply glut, as Chinese demand is not as doom-and-gloom as headline figures suggest and U.S. crude oil production is basically flat this year, Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle, said on Tuesday. Fears of a major oil glut are “completely overplayed,” Currie told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore, where executives at major oil trading houses expressed bearish views about demand and global market balances for this year and next.
According to Currie, Chinese “weaknesses in demand are being deeply exaggerated by base effects and by destocking.”
“The key issue there is, the market is dramatically overestimating that flood [in oil supply], and it’s reflected in record short positions … and I’ve never seen anything like that,” Currie said at the APPEC conference, as reported by CNBC. Hedge funds and other money managers accelerated their selling in the most traded petroleum futures contracts in the latest reporting week to September 3. Portfolio managers slashed their overall net long position—the difference between bullish and bearish bets—to the lowest level since exchanges began compiling such data in 2011. Rising global oil supply and weaker-than-expected demand have made traders increasingly bearish on oil prices. Major oil trader, Gunvor, also expects Brent at $70. Gunvor’s co-founder and chairman Torbjorn Tornqvist told the APPEC conference on Monday that Brent’s fair value is $70 a barrel as supply outpaces demand. The problem with oversupply is not the OPEC+ policy but the fact that the group doesn’t have control over the jump in non-OPEC+ supply, Tornqvist said. NN: This is bargain basement crude
Tropical Storm Francine Disrupts Gulf Coast Oil, Gas Output
Tropical Storm Francine forced some oil drillers to halt production and evacuate crews as it barreled through the Gulf of Mexico, and was expected to strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane as it heads toward the coast of Louisiana. Strong winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected along the state’s shoreline, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory issued at 1 a.m. in Houston on Tuesday. Francine is “anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northern Mexico and southern Texas through Tuesday, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” the center said. The system, located 425 miles (690 kilometers) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, saw winds accelerate to 65 miles per hour from 50 mph on Monday. A hurricane watch is in effect for communities along part of the Louisiana coast. Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among the companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities, and shutting in some wells. The storm’s forecast path intersects with fields that account for roughly 125,000 barrels of crude and 300 million cubic feet of natural gas on a daily basis, according to Bloomberg calculations using government data. Gas supply to Cameron LNG also fell about 41% from the previous day, according to data compiled by BloombergNEF.
On its expected track, Francine may rake nine major platforms, including Enchilada, Cerveza, Perdido and Hoover. That said, the storm probably won’t have a large impact on overall energy production, Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research, said in a social media post.
Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition X-Ray at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas harbors, a warning that rough weather is expected within 48 hours. One upside to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much needed water to the parched Mississippi River, temporarily raising the fortune of shippers before dry conditions set in again.
NOLAREADY: TS Francine is being monitored with potential damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Gather supplies to shelter in place & stay connected. https://t.co/AyuRn38guC
— NOLA Ready (@nolaready) September 9, 2024
This will be the third storm to hit the US mainland this year. As Francine nears the coastline, it could encounter cross winds, or wind shear, that would threaten to weaken it. Still, the storm is currently forecast to make landfall with 100mph winds, which would make it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. The hurricane center is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles or more from populated areas.
China’s Exports Jump to Two-Year High in Rare Boost for Economy
China’s exports unexpectedly accelerated in August, reaching their highest value in nearly two years and providing a rare boost to an economy weighed down by deflationary pressures.
Exports climbed nearly 9% from a year earlier to about $309 billion dollars, the highest since September 2022
and strongly beating estimates. Imports expanded just 0.5%, the customs administration said Tuesday, leaving a trade surplus of $91 billion for the month.Chinese exports have been a bright spot for an economy struggling with a housing slump and deflation. However, the influx of cheap goods to global markets has sparked backlash in the US, South America, and Europe, casting doubt on the sustainability of Beijing’s growth strategy.
But imports have stagnated as domestic economy is weak
“China’s economy continues to show diverging trends with weak domestic demand and strong export competitiveness,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The question is how long exports can stay strong given the weakening US economy and the rising trade tension.” Investors weren’t too impressed with the data. China’s benchmark CSI 300 fell as much as 0.7% before erasing losses to close 0.1% higher. Chinese 10-year government bond yield inched toward a new record low, while the offshore yuan was little changed after recent declines against the greenback. Economic indicators for August so far shows the economy struggling to regain momentum after a rocky start to the second half of the year. Factory activity contracted for a fourth straight month, while core inflation cooled to the weakest in more than three years. More data is expected on Sept. 14.
What Bloomberg Economics Says…
An increasingly uncertain export outlook and weak domestic demand — behind the import miss — are flagging risk of undershooting this year’s 5% GDP target. This uneven recovery requires policymakers to focus more on spurring demand at home to fight the deflationary spiral — by stepping up stimulus and speeding up delivery of that already rolled out.Eric Zhu, economist
While the continued expansion of exports is positive for the economy, Chinese companies are having to cut prices to secure sales, with the volume of shipments rising faster than the value in recent months. Data out Monday showed that producer prices continued to fall, with prices of manufactured goods dropping 2.7% in August from a year earlier. That rising tide of cheaper Chinese goods is making more and more nations nervous. Some have already imposed tariffs on electric cars, steel and other goods. China’s exports of steel products jumped to 9.5 million tons, the most in three months, despite the pushback from trade partners.
Vehicle exports soared to a record. The breakdown of where those cars went isn’t available yet, but it may show Chinese companies trying to get more EVs into Europe before definitive tariffs kick in.
Overall exports to almost every market grew, with double digit expansions to the EU, India and Brazil. Shipments to the US grew 5.1% to the most since September 2022, while exports to Russia also picked up to the highest this year. Among EU nations, shipments to Germany exceeded $10 billion for the first time since August 2022 and those to France hit the highest in more than two years. “The weakness of imports in China mirrors its weak domestic demand,” said Raymong Yeung, chief economist for greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The strong trade surplus will trigger many concerns of China’s overcapacity, the topic of interest of the US and European policymakers.” NN: China is the binary part of ouroil trade. 70% of Chinese oil consumption is in the booming manufacturing sector of their economy.