BlackMask Breaking News

  Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 23, 2024

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 23, 2024, which was 175 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 92 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 6.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 867 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 220 thousand barrels per day. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year
average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from last week and are 12% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, down
by 2.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 3.6% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.6% compared with the same
four-week period last year

Oil fell as technical measures signaled a three-day rally driven by the threat of a halt to Libyan supplies was overdone.  “Short-term technical factors have come into play, and the three-day rally has lost momentum as the price of a barrel of WTI has risen above $77,” Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro senior market analyst, said in a note to clients. The 200-day moving average could now act as resistance to further gains, after having served as a floor for prices for much of the year, he added. Libya’s eastern government declared force majeure — a legal clause allowing missed shipments — on all oil fields, terminals and facilities as it struggles with its Tripoli-based rival for control of the OPEC member’s central bank and oil riches. The 70,000 barrel-a-day El-Feel oil field was shut down. The disruption in Libya helped to shift an oil market that had been turning steadily more bearish in recent weeks. Still, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts as global supplies increase, with the OPEC+ alliance due to begin adding barrels to the market next quarter. There’s also a weak demand outlook, especially in China, the world’s No. 1 importer. “We still assume that OPEC will raise production in Q4 as the market is potentially shifting from an equilibrium where OPEC supports spot balances and reduces volatility to a more long-run equilibrium focused on strategically disciplining non-OPEC supply and supporting cohesion,” Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven said. The threat to exports from Libya followed an exchange of fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah over the weekend that rekindled fears that the conflict would affect physical exports from the Middle East. While both parties said that they had concluded military operations for now, the market is still watching for signs of further fallout from the war in Gaza. NN: We are seeing maximum market confusion here. And  that means opportunity. We will be posting trade recoes and BlackMask Market Update.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stressed on Tuesday that the situation at the Kursk nuclear plant is “serious.” During his visit to the plant, Grossi underlined that a nuclear power plant must not be an object of military action “under any circumstances” and warned that it should not be used by “any party” for “military purposes.” The agency’s director general observed that while the power plant is currently functioning “close to normal,” there are visible signs of previous drone attacks. Grossi stated that the agency’s teams are currently stationed at “all nuclear facilities in Ukraine” and have not detected any leaks of radioactive materials.

The warning appeared online last week in Arabic beneath pictures of U.S. warplanes: “Do not take up arms against the United States or its partners,” it said, noting that America “will protect its partners in the face of threats from the Iranian regime and its proxies.”

And to underscore the message: Central Command is “fully prepared” and ready to employ F-16 and A-10 aircraft “currently in the region.” As fears grow of a wider conflict between Iran and its proxies, and Israel and its backers, the warning — apparently aimed at young disaffected men in the Middle East — may not have been that surprising.

What raised eyebrows was the platform: Tinder.

The ad on the U.S.-based dating app, which gave the world the phrases “swipe right” (to approve a match) and “swipe left” (to reject), has raised fresh questions about the U.S. military’s online information operations, which are aimed at influencing the views of overseas audiences and countering what the government perceives as misleading narratives from foreign adversaries.

Part of a broader campaign in what is commonly called psychological operations or military information support operations, the ad belonged to Centcom, according to one U.S. official familiar with the matter, who like several others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. It was an explicit threat that the Pentagon would take action if Iran or its proxies threatened the United States or its ally Israel, an extraordinary warning — one that some experts saw as ham-fisted — and a reminder that American forces helped bring down scores of Iranian drones and missiles in an April attack.

Central Command declined to comment, saying it generally does not discuss information operations. The Pentagon had no comment on the specific post. Tinder removed the ad after The Post inquired about it on Thursday. Philip Fry, a company spokesperson, said that it “violated our policies” on violent and political messaging. Séamus Malekafzali, a freelance journalist based in Lebanon, encountered the advertisement when he opened Tinder last Thursday, he said. Swiping right redirected him to a Central Command post on X, he told The Post, with a similar message written in Arabic describing the presence of attack aircraft in the region. As for the advertisement appearing on Tinder, another U.S. official quipped: “That’s called ‘meeting people where they are.’” The message itself could be effective, said Gittipong “Eddie” Paruchabutr, a retired Army psyops officer who worked on information operations policy, if “it’s part of a long-term campaign supporting a continuous policy, and not a one-off ad buy.”

NN see BlackMask Market News and  Commentary Titled: Swipe Left

(Bloomberg) — Libya’s eastern government said it will shut down all oil production and exports, after its Tripoli-based rival moved to replace the leadership of the central bank. The “force majeure” applies to all fields, terminals and oil facilities, the eastern authorities said Monday in a statement on Facebook. Brent crude prices jumped as much as 2.2% to above $80 a barrel. A row over who leads the central bank, the manager of billions of dollars of energy revenue, has been brewing for over a week now, deepening political divisions and threatening a UN-brokered peace deal. The internationally acknowledged government in the country’s west has been seeking to replace the governor Sadiq Al-Kabir, who has refused to step down. A government delegation entered the regulator’s offices today to take over, according to local media. The country produced a total of about 1.15 million barrels a day of oil last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Since then, the biggest oil field called Sharara, which was pumping nearly 270,000 barrels daily, has halted. The east is home to the Sirte basin where most of Libya’s oil reserves and four of the country’s oil export terminals are located. A drop in exports may push Brent crude prices temporarily to the mid-$80s a barrel, analyst at Citigroup Inc. said in a note earlier on Monday. Deep-seated political divisions in Libya’s east and west, despite a 2020 United Nations-backed cease-fire deal aimed at ending their fighting, have often resulted in battles and blockades that target the country’s most valuable resource. The nation sits atop Africa’s biggest known crude reserves, but production has suffered after a decade of political strife. The frequent shutdowns — including at the biggest field called Sharara that’s been halted since early August — have partly hit global oil markets. The central bank has become the latest institution for control of the North African nation, which has been wracked by unrest since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising against long-time ruler Moammar Al Qaddafi and is split between dueling governments in the east and west.

NN BlackMask Blog

Hillaries east west devide

 

Crude oil prices started trade this week with a gain, after posting another week of losses, as an increase in violence in the Middle East prompted worry about supply while in the U.S. the Fed signaled it may start cutting interest rates next month. Crude oil prices saw a 2% increase in trading on Monday due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the stability of its supply, stemming from the potential expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, Israel and Hezbollah exchanged a barrage of missiles. Hezbollah FAILED retaliated against the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a high-ranking commander in Beirut, by launching hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel that did no damage. Beforehand, Israeli jets also targeted the militia’s locations in Lebanon. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October deliveries rose by $1.73 to sell at $75.73 per barrel at 7:11 am ET. Brent for October settlements added 42.00 going for $91.02 a barrel. A contributing factor for the latest moves in oil prices may also have been global supply, which has declined to a two-year low, with OECD stocks in particular much lower than the ten-year seasonal average, at minus 120 million barrels or 4%. U.S. oil inventories have been on the decline for several weeks in a row.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, strengthening the US military presence amid soaring regional tensions. The announcement, made in a summary of a call between Austin and his Israeli counterpart, represents a shift. The Pentagon had initially deployed the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into the region with a plan to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group. NN: I do not think they are touring the religious sights. You think the savages of Islam have  figured it out yet? 

Aug. 25 (UPI) — The Israeli Defense Forces “proactively and broadly” struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon after detecting Hezbollah preparations to fire missiles and rockets toward the nation Sunday. Immediately afterward, Hezbollah said it launched 320 rockets and several drones. IDF said approximately 200 rockets were launched from Lebanon toward Israel with no reports of injuries so far. Israeli military told CNN that “very little damage was sustained” and that it was unaware of any impacts on military bases or targets in central Israel.

About 100 of Israel’s fighter jets initially “struck and destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels” across dozens of launch sites, IDF said. Then there were further strikes.

“We are removing threats against the Israeli home front,” IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said at a press briefing. “Dozens of jets are currently striking targets in various locations in southern Lebanon. We are continuing to remove threats, and to intensively strike against the Hezbollah terrorist organization.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who convened a meeting with cabinet members Sunday morning, said preemptive strike was not “the end of the story.” “Hezbollah tried to attack the State of Israel with rockets and drones,” the prime minister said. “We instructed the IDF to carry out a powerful, preemptive strike to eliminate the threat. “The IDF destroyed thousands of short-range rockets, and all of them were aimed at harming our citizens and our forces in the Galilee. In addition, the IDF intercepted all the drones that Hezbollah launched at strategic targets in the center of the country.” The Hezbollah terror group said two of its members were killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip in October to at least 430. “Israel is hitting Hezbollah with surprising, crushing blows. Three weeks ago we eliminated its chief of staff [Shukr],” Netanyahu said. “Today we foiled its attack plan. [Hezbollah’s Hassan] Nasrallah in Beirut and [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei in Tehran should know that this is another step on the path to changing the situation in the north and returning our residents safely to their homes.”

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said in a televised speech Sunday night said the latet attack has been completed, but further strikes could be carried out in the future.

He said Israel’s airstrikes were “aggression, not preemptive action.” The United States helped Israel track incoming Hezbollah attacks, according to a US defense official. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has joined the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the Middle East.

The cumulative  Hamas toll since Oct. 7 is now at least 40,405 killed and 93,468 injured, according to the health ministry.

The death toll among Israeli troops since the start of the unprovoked Hamas Gaza ground invasion on Oct. 27 now stands at 337, and at 700 on all fronts since the Hamas-led Oct. 7 massacre, according to official military data.

NN: We are talking about the Hamas War they started. Again obviously they  are getting their Islamic asses kicked… A kill ratio of 70 to 1. They want to be martyred for the cause…. No problem…….