NAF; Titled:
THE THREE A’S
This next video is a very nervous Iran’s spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordering retaliation for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh on Thursday amid soaring fears of war escalating in the Middle East.
Can Israel’s Air Defenses Withstand All-Out War With Hezbollah?….. Short Answer NO!
Israel and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group have been exchanging near-daily fire along the Israel-Lebanon border since Oct. 8. The US and France are attempting to broker a diplomatic solution that would end the fighting. Should those negotiations fail, Israeli officials anticipate a full-blown war with the Iran-backed militia. In the last such conflagration, in 2006, an intensive air campaign by Israel resulted in hundreds of civilian deaths, massive displacement and severe damage to homes and infrastructure in Lebanon. Lebanon’s military has no air defense capabilities, apart from a rudimentary air force vastly inferior to Israel’s. Hezbollah possesses surface-to-air missiles, and has used them to knock down Israeli drones over Lebanon. Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure suffered in 2006 too, to a lesser extent. Now, Israel has considerable air defenses, but a new war could mean thousands of missiles fired daily at Israel that would strain — and possibly overrun — them. Today, Hezbollah is believed to have an arsenal of more than 150,000 missiles, including long-range and precision-guided ones that could reach deep into Israel and target major cities and strategic assets such as military bases, airports, electricity grids and hospitals, according to Israeli assessments.
What air defenses does Israel have?
Iron Dome. The most active and well-known of Israel’s air defenses is Iron Dome, which since 2011 has intercepted thousands of rockets fired by Hezbollah and by militant Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip. The system, developed by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and co-produced since 2014 with the US-based Raytheon Technologies, is designed to counter projectiles and drones with a short range, from 4 kilometers to 70 kilometers (2.5 to 43 miles). Israel’s army says Iron Dome intercepts 90% of such projectiles heading toward populated areas. The Israeli military announced in April that a mobile, maritime version of Iron Dome — known as C-Dome — was operational. It could be used to fend off Hezbollah attacks targeting Israel’s offshore gas fields or ships.
David’s Sling. In 2017, Israel installed a medium-to-long-range interceptor known as David’s Sling, which was co-developed by Rafael and Raytheon. David’s Sling is designed to detect and destroy ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drones, at a reported range of up to 200 kilometers. That range covers southern Lebanon as well as Gaza.
Arrow. Israel also possesses the advanced Arrow missile defense system, made up of Arrow 2 and Arrow 3. Developers have said the Arrow system can intercept missiles fired from up to 2,400 kilometers away and can do it above Earth’s atmosphere, where long-range ballistic missiles spend part of their flight time. Arrow could be activated if Iran-backed groups in Yemen, Syria and Iraq were to attack Israel to help Hezbollah.
Iron Beam. Israel’s military is testing another system called Iron Beam, which uses lasers to intercept projectiles fired at close range at less expense than the Iron Dome. Iron Beam is not expected to be operational before mid-2025.
Can these systems be overcome?
Already, Hezbollah has inflicted damage and caused dozens of casualties in northern Israel since October using kamikaze explosive drones, many of which are able to slip through Israel’s defenses. The group is thought to be increasing its stockpile of these drones. What’s more, Israel’s army has acknowledged that its air defenses, including Iron Dome, can be overwhelmed if a large number of projectiles are fired simultaneously. Israel expects Hezbollah could fire some 3,000 rockets and missiles every day during a war, far exceeding the capacity of the systems designed to intercept them.
Some of Israel’s newer air defense systems were only recently battle-tested. Arrow 3, which was jointly developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing Co., notched its first battlefield success in November 2023 when it shot down a missile fired toward southern Israel by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. David’s Sling knocked down rockets from Gaza in fighting that erupted last May. Both were successfully used in Iran’s unprecedented bombardment of Israel on April 13. During that attack, Israel and its allies intercepted 99% of the 300 drones and missiles fired at the country, mostly before they entered Israeli airspace. However, in that case, Israel had advance warning of the assault and received significant help from US and British fighter pilots, conditions that might not be repeated during a weeks- or months-long war with Hezbollah.
Oil Prices Rise Amid Growing Fears of a War in the Middle East
- Crude oil prices spiked after Israel assassinated Hamas’s political leader on Iranian soil, leading to threats of retaliation from Tehran.
- The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, combined with record US oil demand, has created a bullish environment for oil prices.
- Early on Thursday morning, WTI was trading around $78.50 while Brent had climbed above $81.
Crude oil prices continued their climb today after a surge yesterday following the news of Israel assassinating Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and a senior Hezbollah official in Lebanon. The fact the Haniyeh assassination was done in Iran gave a significant boost to prices as Tehran immediately threatened retaliation of the sort that oil analysts have said could send Brent crude into three-digit territory.
“We fear the region is at the brink of all-out war,” Japan’s deputy representative to the United Nations said as the Security Council called on UN members to double down on diplomatic pressure to resolve the conflict between Israel and its neighbors.
“Countries with major influence must put more pressure and work more vigorously … to put out the flames of war in Gaza,” China’s UN ambassador said.
Iran’s representative called the assassination of Haniyeh an act of terrorism, according to a Reuters report on the latest developments in the situation. As pressure remains high in the Middle East, Brent crude topped $81 per barrel before paring some of its gains earlier today, and West Texas Intermediate climbed closer to $79 per barrel. In additional bullish news for oil, the Energy Information Administration reported that oil demand in the United States had reached a seasonal record in May, at 20.80 million barrels daily. That was quite a significant revision from EIA estimates, which saw May demand at 20 million barrels daily.
Global oil inventories, meanwhile, are on a downward trajectory, reaching a record deficit relative to their average levels, Eric Nuttall, senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners told Bloomberg this week.
Nuttall also noted OPEC+ production cut compliance improvements as a factor for a bullish view on oil.
Unless tension in the Middle East gets defused through diplomacy, oil may continue up based on fundamentals and the geopolitical premium.
NN: Its the oil Trifecta. Falling inventories, OPES+ supply cuts and War in the Middle East
Blinken claims Middle East moves toward ‘more conflict’
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Thursday that the Middle East region is heading for “more conflict” and urged all parties to halt “escalatory actions” after Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in an alleged Israeli attack in Tehran.
“Right now, the path that the region is on is toward more conflict, more violence, more suffering, more insecurity.
And it is crucial that we break the cycle. And that starts with a ceasefire,” Blinken told reporters in Mongolia. The secretary further said that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas would bring the Gaza war to an end, but it would also “produce calm in the north, between Israel and Lebanon.” “It is urgent that all parties make the right choices in the days ahead,” he concluded.
Israel confirms death of ‘most wanted’ Hamas military head
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Iran, sparking fears of wider war
The killing, which Iran and Hamas blamed on Israel and pledged to avenge, threatens to plunge the region further into chaos and raised fresh doubts about Gaza cease-fire talks. The killing came hours after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut targeted a senior leader of Hezbollah, another Iranian-backed militant group locked in combat with Israel. The Israel Defense Forces said Fuad Shukr was killed in the Tuesday evening attack, blaming him for the weekend rocket attack in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12. Hezbollah has acknowledged his presence in the demolished building but said recovery efforts were continuing .The deadly events marked the end of two key leaders of Tehran’s proxy militant groups in the region. Reports in Arabic media said that a third, Ziad al-Nakhaleh, the secretary general of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, was in the building where Haniyeh was killed. Israel struck Lebanon and Iran in order “to set the region on fire,” senior Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said Wednesday at a news conference in Tehran, adding that Hamas and its allies do not want a “regional war.” But Haniyeh’s killing, he said, “sent a clear message: that our only option with this enemy is blood and resistance.” Security analysts said the events would push the region closer to a regionwide conflict, with Iran compelled to respond to an attack in the heart of its capital. The events come just months after Iran and Israel exchanged missile and rocket attacks in a confrontation that experts warned was flirting with all-out war. Israeli experts said Israel hoped the risk of escalation would be outweighed by a demonstration of military and intelligence prowess that allowed it to reach deep into Tehran. “I don’t think it will change the balance of power or the face of the war, but it sends a strong signal to Iran and the axis [of proxy militant groups],” said Yoel Guzansky, a former official on Israel’s National Security Council who is now a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “It shows them they cannot be safe anywhere, even in Tehran.” “I think this is Israel getting some of its reputation for deterrence back,” he said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration was not warned of the attack against Haniyeh ahead of time, nor did it have any part in it. “This is something we were not aware of or involved in,” Blinken told Channel News Asia in an interview in Singapore. “I’ve learned over many years never to speculate on the impact that an event has had on something else. So I can’t tell you what this means” for the region or the cease-fire discussions, he said. Haniyeh was Hamas’s longtime political leader, who lived mostly in the Qatari capital Doha. But his role at the top of the group’s hierarchy has been in question since Sinwar, the group’s military leader in Gaza, launched the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel and had been seen to manage the war along with negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage release ever since. “Sinwar might be pretty happy right now. The two were rivals inside of Hamas,” Guzansky said. Mick Mulroy, a former CIA and Marine Corps official and top Pentagon aide for the Middle East during the Trump administration, said Haniyeh’s killing represented an “absolute embarrassment” for Iran. “Haniyeh was their guest,” he said. “This was a complete failure of their security.” He said Israel “obviously had exquisite intelligence in order to carry out this precise assassination strike.” Suhail al-Hindi, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, promised revenge for Haniyeh, whose funeral is set to take place in Doha on Friday. The killing was a “significant blow to the Palestinian cause,” he said, though he added, “Hamas is an institutional movement that remains unharmed by the martyrdom of its leader.”
Iran orders ‘direct strike’ against Israel for Haniyeh killing
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered retaliation after a humiliating security failure, as Iran once again balances showing strength against the risk of escalation.
Iranian military commanders are considering another combination attack of drones and missiles on military targets in the vicinity of Tel Aviv and Haifa, but would make a point of avoiding strikes on civilian targets, the Iranian officials said. One option under consideration is a coordinated attack from Iran and other fronts where it has allied forces, including Yemen, Syria and Iraq, for maximum effect, they said. In his public statement about Mr. Haniyeh’s death, Mr. Khamenei signaled that Iran would retaliate directly, saying, “we see avenging his blood our duty,” because it happened on the territory of the Islamic Republic. He said Israel had set the stage for receiving “a severe punishment.” Statements from other Iranian officials, including the new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, the foreign ministry, the Guards and Iran’s mission to the U.N., also said openly that Iran would retaliate against Israel and that it had a right to defend itself against a transgression on its sovereignty. Iran and the regional forces it backs — Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and multiple militias in Iraq — form what they call the “axis of resistance.” Leaders of those groups were in Tehran for the inauguration of Mr. Pezeshkian on Tuesday. Mr. Haniyeh was assassinated at about 2 a.m. local time, after attending the ceremony and meeting with Mr. Khamenei. NN: Rock and Roll party time
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report…. Oil inventories decreased by 3.4 million barrels
Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 26, 2024
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 433.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending July
26, 2024, which was 258 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 90.1% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased
last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week,
averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, increased by 82 thousand
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 6.9 million barrels per day, 5.9% more than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 917 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 140 thousand
barrels per day.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
increased by 2.9 million barrels from last week and are 16% above the five year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels a day, up by
1.4% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied
averaged 9.2 million barrels a day, up by 4.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 3.2% from
the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.2% compared with the same four week period last year
Israel’s Twin Strikes in Tehran, Beirut Ratchet Up Tensions
- Hezbollah, Hamas leaders said assassinated in Beirut, Tehran
- Risk of regional conflagration increases as revenge is vowed
Within seven hours overnight, Israel targeted top leaders of Hezbollah in Beirut and Hamas in Tehran in a show of its willingness to risk retaliation and regional conflagration while hunting down enemies abroad.Israeli officials said the killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital was in response to a rocket attack last weekend from Lebanon that claimed the lives of a dozen young people playing soccer in the Golan Heights. Shukr was said to be Hezbollah’s chief of staff, in charge of its military activity. The missile fired into the Tehran guest house occupied by Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, killed him and his bodyguard. Israel has vowed to eliminate every Hamas official since the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war in Gaza. Israel hasn’t official claimed responsibility, but no one in the country doubts who did it. “It’s part of Israel’s long-term counter-terrorism paradigm that you go after the leaders of terror organizations,” noted Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank focused on political reform and critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “There’s a broad consensus among Israelis that all those who perpetrated the Oct. 7 massacre should cease to exist.”
From the outside, the risks appear steep. Talks under way with Hamas to free hostages and impose a cease-fire on the nearly 10-month-old war in Gaza seem likely to stall if not break down.
While Lebanon’s Hezbollah has not confirmed Shukr’s death, the diplomacy aimed at getting it to stop firing missiles at Israel and move its forces away from the border seems equally likely to be affected. Israeli analysts noted that Haniyeh was killed in Iran where he was visiting, not in Qatar, where he lives, in order not to alienate the Qataris who are key to the hostage talks. Less clear is how Iran — chief sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all groups that are attacking Israel — will react to having a visitor to a state ceremony assassinated under its nose. On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke not of diplomacy but retaliation, vowing that Israel has “prepared the ground for its severe punishment.”
Now, says Firas Modad, founder of Modad Geopolitics, a consultancy for investors, there is likely to be “a severe increase in risks to energy infrastructure” in the Persian Gulf as well as “to shipping in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean, to assets located near US bases in the region, to aviation” in the region and “to US and UK personnel.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, asked while visiting the Philippines about the impact of the killings, said he didn’t think war was inevitable. “We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we keep things from turning into a broader conflict throughout the region,” he said. “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that in April. You can expect to see us do that again.” NN: The battle lines are being drawn. And yes their will be one hell of a battle. By the way all air traffic has been grounded i the north part of Israel. Reguard this as the quiet in the eye storm .
Haniyeh’s killing was called by Palestinian’s Mahmoud Abbas a “cowardly act and dangerous development.”
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas condemned the killing in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as a “cowardly act” in a statement issued on Wednesday. The head of the Palestinian Authority described the killing as a “dangerous development.” The secretary general of the executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Hussein al-Sheikh, wrote on the platform X that his organization denounced “the assassination of the head of the Political Bureau, the national leader, Ismail Haniyeh.” Haniyeh’s killing was met with immediate condemnation and outrage across the Arab and Muslim world, with Iran threatening to retaliate. A spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the killing would “strengthen the deep and unbreakable bond between the Islamic Republic of Iran and dear Palestine and the resistance.”
The head of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, called it a “cowardly act and dangerous development.”
“We consider it a cowardly act, this pushes us to remain more steadfast in the face of the occupation, and the necessity of achieving the unity of the Palestinian forces and factions,” al-Sheikh wrote. An alliance of various political groups in the West Bank called for a general strike in response to Haniyeh’s death. Furthermore, it was suggested that confrontations with Israeli soldiers at checkpoints should be sought. Whether these were meant to be demonstrations or attacks remained unclear.
“We consider it a cowardly act” And what do they call that ditty on October 7? Where they shot, dismembered heads arms legs breasts, raped, and slaughtered Babbie’s, school, girls and unarmed civilians.
Well I can guarantee them many many more cowardly acts to come…
Brent Breaks Above $80 on Fears of Middle East Escalation
Brent Crude prices spent just a few hours below the $80 a barrel mark as tensions in the Middle East flared up again, pushing oil prices up by 2.5% early on Wednesday after the killing of the Hamas political leader in Iran. In morning trade in Europe, Brent Crude prices were rising by 2.51% at $80.50, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was rallying by 2.62% to $76.70. Brent had fallen below the $80 per barrel threshold on Tuesday amid continued concerns about oil demand in China. But oil prices rebounded on Wednesday, rallying in morning trade in Europe, following reports that the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in Iran. The assassination came just hours after Israel said it had killed Hezbollah senior commander Fuad Shukr in an air strike on Beirut, Lebanon, in retaliation for a Hezbollah strike on the Golan Heights in the weekend. In response to the suspected Israeli assassination of the Hamas leader, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, as posted on his official website, “The criminal, terrorist Zionist regime martyred our dear guest in our territory and has caused our grief, but it has also prepared the ground for a severe punishment.”
“[F]ollowing this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, we believe it is our duty to take revenge.”
The initial market reaction to the escalation in the Middle East is growing fear that some kind of a direct Israel-Iran conflict could emerge, and the geopolitical price premium trumped on Wednesday concerns about weaker-than-expected oil demand in China. While details are still emerging from Iran about the killing of the Hamas leader, the market was “allocating a higher risk premium for oil” early on Wednesday, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note early today. NN: This shoots any chance of a piece deal in the ass. Told You So….. $100 here we come.