BlackMask Breaking News

United States President Joe Biden’s Senior Adviser for Energy and Investment Amos Hochstein supposedly warned Hezbollah that it is false to think that the US would be able to stop Israel from invading Lebanon if the militia’s attacks escalate.Hochstein asked Lebanese Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri during his visit to Beirut last week to pass on the message to Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Axios reported, citing sources briefed on the matter, who added that Hochstein stressed the need for Hezbollah to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of elevating tensions. The report claims that the group communicated to the US via third parties that even though it does not want a war, it is confident of its ability to hit Israel significantly should it invade Lebanon. “The situation is serious. What President Biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” Hochstein said before leaving Beirut.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday met with United States President Joe Biden’s Senior Adviser for Energy and Investment, Amos Hochstein in Washington and stressed that the transition to the third phase in the Gaza war will affect all fronts. “Minister Gallant told Hochstein that the transition to ‘Phase C’ in the war in Gaza will impact developments on all fronts and that Israel is preparing for every scenario, both militarily and diplomatically,” the Israeli Defense Ministry said in a statement. defense According to Israeli media, phase three includes low-intensity conflict for military forces to destroy all pockets of Hamas in Gaza as political officials attempt to establish a new government in the enclave to replace the militant group.

European Union Foreign Affairs and Security Policy High Representative Josep Borrell said on Monday that the risk of the Israel-Hamas conflict spilling over into Lebanon is increasing daily and warned that “we are on the eve of the war expanding.” Borrell said the ceasefire proposal put forth by the United States is not going to be implemented as there is a “lack of will” from both Israel and Hamas. He said no humanitarian assistance is entering the Gaza Strip and it is instead being stockpiled on the border with Egypt. He said the aid distribution has become impossible due to a lack of organization. “The social fabric has been destroyed and the civil society is unravelling,” he cautioned.

Baerbock warns Israel and Hezbollah against conflict

• Citi is one of the most prominent bears among major banks, expecting oil to drop into the $70s range later this year.
• Citi sees oil trading in the $60s range in 2025.
• Citi sees lower prices as they expect inventories to build in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Citi predicts that oil prices will plummet to the $60s range by 2025 as inventories build following a tight market this summer, signaling a bearish outlook despite current robust demand and higher prices. Oil has recouped the losses from early June when the OPEC+ group’s indication that it could begin returning some supply to the market in the fourth quarter sent bearish signals across the market. Early on Friday, the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded above $85 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was above $82 a barrel, as signs of tightening physical markets started to emerge. The market expects solid summer demand in the third quarter but fears that the quarterly consumption growth will start waning in the fourth quarter, pressuring oil prices downwards. Citi is one of the most prominent bears among major banks, expecting oil to drop into the $70s range later this year and further down to the $60s range in 2025 due to solid inventory builds. “Global inventories will be building a lot next year,” Citi’s global energy strategist Eric Lee told Yahoo Finance in an interview this week. “We do think that there is a bit of a tight stretch [with supply] through the summer, so we do see prices staying in the low- to mid-80s for a little longer,” the strategist added.” But as we’re looking through the second half of the year into 2025, we really see markets getting a lot weightier.” Citi also expects global oil demand growth to slow down as “Oil demand can grow at a slower and slower rate relative to GDP and in fact peak before the end of this decade,” Lee told Yahoo Finance. Citi holds one of the most bearish near and long-term views on oil prices and demand. Goldman Sachs, for example, said in a report this week that “Peak oil demand is still a decade away.” Earlier this month, the International Energy Agency said that global oil demand would peak before 2030. This forecast drew criticism from OPEC, whose Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said that “peak oil demand is not on the horizon,” and that IEA’s forecast “is a dangerous commentary, especially for consumers, and will only lead to energy volatility on a potentially unprecedented scale.” Goldman’s analysts, for their part, said, “While some prominent forecasters have predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, our researchers expect oil usage will increase through 2034.” “We think peak demand is another decade away, and more importantly, after the decade it takes to peak, it plateaus, rather than sharply declines, for another few years,” write Nikhil Bhandari, co-head of Asia-Pacific Natural Resources and Clean Energy Research, and analyst Amber Cai in the team’s report.

In the near term, Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude at $86 per barrel this summer amid strong consumer demand, which will put the market into a sizeable deficit in the third quarter.

The investment bank also sees a floor of $75 per barrel under Brent due to physical demand for crude, which tends to rise amid lower prices, including in China and in the U.S. for the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).   Most banks expect oil prices to hold above $80 a barrel this summer and decline in the fourth quarter and early next year into the $70 range. JP Morgan expects oil prices to average $75 a barrel next year, sliding from an expected range of $80-$90 this summer. Commodity analysts will monitor trends in interest rates and global economic growth to use as assumptions for their forecasts later this year, but they will also closely watch OPEC+’s next move. While the group has signaled willingness to begin unwinding part of the current supply cuts, the cartel and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia are unlikely to leave oil prices lingering in the low $70s and plunging to the $60s, as none of the alliance’s producers can balance their budgets at these relatively low prices.  NN: See BlackMask Market Update Titled City Predicts $60 Oil 

Riyadh — The death toll from this year’s hajj has exceeded 1,000, an AFP tally said on Thursday, more than half of them unregistered worshippers who performed the pilgrimage in extreme heat in Saudi Arabia. The new deaths reported Thursday included 58 from Egypt, according to an Arab diplomat who provided a breakdown showing that of 658 total dead from that country, 630 were unregistered. All told around 10 countries have reported 1,081 deaths during the annual pilgrimage, one of the five pillars of Islam which all Muslims with the means must complete at least once. The figures have come via official statements or from diplomats working on their countries’ responses. The hajj, whose timing is determined by the lunar Islamic calendar, fell again this year during the oven-like Saudi summer. The national meteorological center reported a high of 51.8 degrees Celsius (125 degrees Fahrenheit) earlier this week at the Grand Mosque in Mecca. Egyptian officials reached by CBS News would not confirm the figures stated by the AFP, but dozens of videos posted on social media in recent days showed bodies laying on the streets around the Grand Mosque. Jordan’s Foreign Ministry released a statement via social media on Thursday confirming the deaths of 68 nationals who had traveled to Saudi Arabia for the hajj, adding that 16 others remained missing. The ministry said many of those who had died were being buried in Mecca per the wishes of their families. According to a Saudi study published last month, temperatures in the area are rising 0.4 degrees Celsius, or just less than one degree Fahrenheit, each decade. Every year, tens of thousands of pilgrims attempt to perform the hajj through irregular channels as they cannot afford the often costly official permits. Saudi authorities reported clearing hundreds of thousands of unregistered pilgrims from Mecca earlier this month, but many still participated in the main rites that began last Friday. This group was more vulnerable to the heat because, without official permits, they could not access air-conditioned spaces provided by Saudi authorities for the 1.8 million authorized pilgrims to cool down after hours of walking and praying outside. “People were tired after being chased by security forces before Arafat day. They were exhausted,” one Arab diplomat told AFP on Thursday, referring to Saturday’s day-long outdoor prayers that marked the hajj’s climax. The diplomat said the principal cause of death among Egyptian pilgrims was the heat, which triggered complications related to high blood pressure and other issues. In addition to Egypt, fatalities have also been confirmed to AFP by Malaysia, Pakistan, India, Jordan, Indonesia, Iran, Senegal, Tunisia and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, though in many cases authorities have not specified the cause. Friends and family members have been searching for pilgrims who are still missing. On Wednesday they scoured hospitals and pleaded online for news, fearing the worst during the scorching temperatures. Saudi Arabia has not provided information on fatalities, though it reported more than 2,700 cases of “heat exhaustion” on Sunday alone. NN: Funny how this humanitarian crises where real  numbers are close to 2000 dead and 10000 injured. Let me explain. A HAJJ visa permit starts at $5,000 dollars and can cost on the upside over $30,000. Many people who can not afford the HAJJ visa enter on a much cheaper tourist visa. Where they are treated by thier Islamic brothers like dogs…

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A claim by Yemen’s Houthi group on Saturday that its forces had attacked the U.S. aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Red Sea is false, two U.S. officials told Reuters. “That is incorrect,” one of the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The Iran-aligned Houthis first launched drone and missile strikes in the key waterway for trade in November in what they say is solidarity with Palestinian militants in Gaza, where Israel has waged a more than eight-month war. In more than 70 attacks, the Houthis have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least three seafarers. But U.S. warships have successfully intercepted almost daily Houthi attacks and repeatedly struck Houthi targets inside Yemen. The Eisenhower, which ended its deployment to the Red Sea on Saturday and will briefly reposition to the Mediterranean Sea, rushed to the region in the days following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel. “The (Eisenhower carrier strike group) protected ships transiting the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, rescued innocent mariners against the unlawful attacks from the Iranian-backed Houthis and helped to deter further aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

 US Recalls Carrier Eisenhower Amid Relentless Attacks By Yemeni Rebels

The Pentagon announced the U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) will follow the  deprting Eisenhower, heading to Middle East waters once it completes an exercise in the Pacific. Earlier the Houthi group said its forces had attacked the Eisenhower in the Red Sea and the operation had achieved its objectives successfully, without elaborating. The group also said it attacked a commercial ship, Transworld Navigator, in the Arabian Sea. It did not say when the attacks took place. A Houthi statement said the Transworld Navigator took a direct hit from a missile. NN: We closely monitor Houthi satellite broadcasts out of Yemen. They publish extensive footage of their attacks. Especially on maritime targets. Nothing on the Eisenhower. I think they got very very close. That is why the aircraft carrier is returning to the US.

Officials from the United States told the Israeli government that Washington will fully support Israel in case of war with Hezbollah, CNN reported. According to the sources, the US would stop short of sending troops to help Israel. Israeli officials, including Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, traveled to the US this week for talks with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, among others. They discussed the rising tensions on the Israeli border with Lebanon and the options for de-escalating, including “ways of returning Israelis and Lebanese people who have been displaced from the border back to their homes,” according to the report.

Hamas reportedly stalling talks in hopes for Lebanon war

The leader of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, is claimed to be buying time to negotiate the ceasefire agreement with Israel, hoping that a war will break out in Lebanon before the deal is finalized, sources told Haaretz. “Hamas doesn’t want a deal now,” an insider said. People familiar with the situation report that Qatar is engaging in discussions with Hamas leaders to bridge the gap between Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal and the concerns raised by the militant group. Previously, the United States and Israel discussed the ceasefire deal for Gaza, which previously gained the support of the United Nations Security Council.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to discuss a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and avoiding further escalation in Lebanon, the State Department said. Blinken reiterated the United States’ “ironclad commitment” to Israel’s security, before discussing ongoing efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and secure the release of all hostages, emphasizing the need to surge humanitarian aid into Gaza and plan for “post-conflict governance, security, and reconstruction.” Blinken also underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation in Lebanon and reaching a diplomatic solution.

The United States is concerned that parts of Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system could be overwhelmed if the conflict with Hezbollah escalates, CNN reported on Thursday. Anonymous US sources said Israeli officials think the Iron Dome is particularly vulnerable in the north of the country, where Hezbollah has been attacking, and that they are “surprised at the sophistication of Hezbollah’s strikes to date.” US officials also said Israel informed the Biden administration it plans to pull some forces from southern Gaza and stage an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Lebanese group could respond using precision guided weapons, which the Iron Dome could struggle to defend against. According to the report, the US estimated Israel will need “additional air defense systems and Iron Dome replenishments, which the US would provide.” Now you know why i call it iron dumb dumb. 

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 14, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.8 million barrels per day during the week ending June
14, 2024, which was 281 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased
last week, averaging 10.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week,
averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.1 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 1.3 million
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged
about 7.3 million barrels per day, 11.6% more than the same four-week period last year. Total
motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 150 thousand
barrels per day.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)
decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 457.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil
inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline
inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels from last week and are about 1% below the five year
average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories
decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week and are
about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories
increased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are 10% above the five year average for this
time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.0 million barrels a day, up by
0.2% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied
averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, down by 1.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel
product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1.5%
from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.0% compared with the same
four-week period last year