United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken (pictured) told Qatari Emir Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani that Qatar should expel Hamas if it continues to reject a ceasefire deal with Israel, the Washington Post reported. Hamas’s political leadership has been headquartered in Qatar since 2012, at the request of the United States. According to one anonymous diplomat familiar with the matter, Qatar has already told the Hamas leadership it should “devise a backup plan for residency should they need to leave.” However, another official said pressuring Hamas’s political arm will serve no purpose as “the guys making the decisions are in Gaza, and they don’t care where the political office is located.”
Israeli tanks are stationed outside Gaza border. Gives Hamas one week to agree hostage deal.
Israel is determined to launch a ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost town, a plan that has raised global alarm because of the potential for harm to more than a million Palestinian civilians sheltering there. Even as the U.S., Egypt and Qatar pushed for a cease-fire deal they hope would avert an assault on Rafah, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated on Tuesday that the military would move on the town “with or without a deal” to achieve its goal of destroying the Hamas militant group.
“We will enter Rafah because we have no other choice. We will destroy the Hamas battalions there, we will complete all the objectives of the war, including the return of all our hostages,” he said.
Israel has approved military plans for its offensive and has moved troops and tanks to southern Israel in apparent preparation — though it’s still unknown when or if it will happen.
About 1.4 million Palestinians — more than half of Gaza’s population — are jammed into the town and its surroundings. Most of them fled their homes elsewhere in the territory to escape Israel’s onslaught and now face another wrenching move, or the danger of facing the brunt of a new assault. They live in densely packed tent camps, overflowing U.N. shelters or crowded apartments, and are dependent on international aid for food, with sanitation systems and medical facilities infrastructure crippled.
WHY RAFAH IS SO CRITICAL
Since Israel declared war in response to Hamas’ deadly cross-border attack on Oct. 7, Netanyahu has said a central goal is to destroy its military capabilities.
Israel says Rafah is Hamas’ last major stronghold in the Gaza Strip, after operations elsewhere dismantled 18 out of the militant group’s 24 battalions, according to the military. But even in northern Gaza, the first target of the offensive, Hamas has regrouped in some areas and continued to launch attacks.
Israel says Hamas has four battalions in Rafah and that it must send in ground forces to topple them. Some senior militants could also be hiding in the city.
WHY THERE IS SO MUCH OPPOSITION TO ISRAEL’S PLAN
The U.S. has urged Israel not to carry out the operation without a “credible” plan to evacuate civilians. Egypt, a strategic partner of Israel, has said that an Israeli military seizure of the Gaza-Egypt border — which is supposed to be demilitarized — or any move to push Palestinians into Egypt would threaten its four-decade-old peace agreement with Israel.
Israel’s previous ground assaults, backed by devastating bombardment since October, leveled huge parts of northern Gaza and the southern city of Khan Younis and caused widespread civilian deaths, even after evacuation orders were given for those areas.
Israel’s military says it plans to direct the civilians in Rafah to “humanitarian islands” in central Gaza before the planned offensive. It says it has ordered thousands of tents to shelter people. But it hasn’t given details on its plan. It’s unclear if it’s logistically possible to move such a large population all at once without widespread suffering among a population already exhausted by multiple moves and months of bombardment.
Moreover, U.N. officials say an attack on Rafah will collapse the aid operation that is keeping the population across the Gaza Strip alive,. and potentially push Palestinians into greater starvation and mass death.
Some entry points have been opened in the north, and the U.S. has promised that a port to bring in supplies by sea will be ready in weeks. But the majority of food, medicine and other material enters Gaza from Egypt through Rafah or the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing — traffic that is likely to be impossible during an invasion.
The U.S. has said that Israel should use pinpoint operations against Hamas inside Rafah without a major ground assault.
After Netanyahu’s latest comments, U.S. National Security spokesperson John Kirby said, “We don’t want to see a major ground operation in Rafah. Certainly, we don’t want to see operations that haven’t factored in the safety, security of” those taking refuge in the town.
POLITICAL CALCULATIONS
The question of attacking Rafah has heavy political repercussions for Netanyahu. His government could be threatened with collapse if he doesn’t go through with it. Some of his ultranationalist and conservative religious governing partners could pull out of the coalition, if he signs onto a cease-fire deal that prevents an assault.
Critics of Netanyahu say that he’s more concerned with keeping his government intact and staying in power than national interest, an accusation he denies.
One of his coalition members, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Tuesday that accepting a cease-fire deal and not carrying out a Rafah operation would amount to Israel “raising a white flag” and giving victory to Hamas.
On the other hand, Netanyahu risks increasing Israel’s international isolation — and alienating its top ally, the United States — if it does attack Rafah. His vocal refusals to be swayed by world pressure and his promises to launch the operation could be aimed at placating his political allies even as he considers a deal.
Or he could bet that international anger will remain largely rhetorical if he goes ahead with the attack. The Biden administration has used progressively tougher language to express concerns over Netanyahu’s conduct of the war, but it has also continued to provide weapons to Israel’s military and diplomatic support.
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OPEC+: Iraq, Kazakhstan to cut oil production
Iraq and Kazakhstan reached an agreement on Friday to cut oil production as part of the OPEC+ compensation cuts plan to stabilize global oil prices.
OPEC convened a workshop today to address oil overproduction issues and devise comprehensive compensation plans to make up for previous overages, according to an official OPEC press release. The push for production cut compliance comes as the price of Brent crude is trading down roughly $6 per barrel over the last 30 days. The workshop brought together technical experts from Iraq and Kazakhstan, along with industry professionals from secondary sources, and was prompted by the recent mandates outlined in the 35th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting held in June 2023, emphasizing the crucial adherence to production quotas and the principle of compensation. Per the directives of the 53rd Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) held on April 3, 2024, countries with outstanding overproduced volumes were required to submit detailed compensation plans by April 30, 2024. Iraq and Kazakhstan were key participants in today’s workshop. Iraq reported overproduced volumes totaling approximately 602,000 bpd, while Kazakhstan accounted for 389,000 bpd in January, February, and March 2024. Both nations presented plans that would ensure full compensation of overproduced volumes by the end of the year. Additionally, any excess production in April 2024 will be accommodated within the respective compensation frameworks throughout the remainder of the year. This collaborative effort follows recent commitments made by Kazakhstan to compensate for January’s overproduction, aligning with the collective efforts of OPEC+ to maintain equilibrium in oil supply. The workshop builds upon previous initiatives aimed at enhancing compliance with production cuts and fostering transparency within the industry. As the global energy landscape continues to evolve, OPEC remains steadfast in its commitment to ensuring market stability and sustainable oil production practices. In February, OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, said it was committed to its voluntary production cut that capped its oil production at no more than 4 million bpd. The bloc has been under increased pressure over this last month to showcase its ability to maintain the previously agreed-upon production cuts as oil prices have trailed off.
NN: OPEC will not tolerate oil in the seventies for long
Turkey CUTS trade with Israel over IDF’s bombing war in Gaza
- Turkey supports a two-state solution and had worked on relations in recent years
- But the conflict in Gaza continues to strain Israel’s relationships with neighbours
Turkey has suspended all trade with Israel over its ongoing offensive in Gaza as relations continue to sour between the two regional powers.
The Turkish Trade Ministry said exports and imports had abruptly ‘stopped’ on Thursday, and that the measures would remain until Israel allows what it deems ‘an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid’ into the beleaguered Strip.
‘This is how a dictator behaves, disregarding the interests of the Turkish people and businessmen, and ignoring international trade agreements,’ Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz snapped in a post on Twitter/X on Thursday. He said he had instructed the foreign ministry to seek out alternatives for trade with Turkey, including focusing on internal production as Israel’s local relationships are tested by its seven-month campaign in Gaza. Turkish officials added in their declaration that they would work with the relevant Palestinian authorities to ensure Palestinians are not affected by the suspension. Turkey and Israel had a trade volume of $6.8 billion in 2023. The two countries had finally normalised ties after years of tensions by appointing ambassadors in 2022. But the war in Gaza has seen relations spiral in recent months with President Erdogan calling Israel a ‘terror state’ and introducing trade restrictions expected to hurt Israel’s economy – a move matched in kind by Israel. In its statement today, the Turkish trade ministry described the step as the ‘second phase’ of measures against Israel, adding that the steps would remain in force until Israel ‘allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza.’ The move was met with furious backlash from Israel’s foreign minister, who accused Turkey of blocking Israeli imports and exports from Turkish ports earlier on Thursday.
Hamas’ Gaza Chief Lays Down ‘Specific’ Demands For Ceasefire | Talks Reaching Dead End
There is no clarity on a ceasefire deal between Israel & Hamas even amid hectic parleys.
As diplomatic efforts intensify to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the leader of the Gaza-based militant group, Yahya Sinwar, has outlined key demands that must be addressed before an agreement can be reached. According to reports from Channel 12 news, Sinwar’s demands are being discussed by Egyptian mediators with the assistance of the United States. First and foremost, Sinwar is insisting on a guaranteed and unconditional end to the ongoing conflict. This demand, a consistent priority for Hamas, seeks to amend the proposed clause that calls for negotiations on a sustainable calm to begin after an initial 40-day truce phase. Instead, Sinwar is pushing for a written commitment ensuring an immediate cessation of hostilities, without any conditions attached. In addition, Sinwar opposes Israel’s proposal to prevent certain Palestinian security prisoners, particularly those involved in violent attacks, from returning to the West Bank. Instead, Israel would have the authority to send them to Gaza or into exile. Sinwar is challenging this provision and is seeking alternative arrangements for the handling of these prisoners.Furthermore, Sinwar seeks clarification on the materials that will be permitted for reconstruction efforts in Gaza. This demand aims to ensure that Hamas can access resources necessary for rebuilding its military infrastructure, including tunnels and other defensive structures, according to experts.
US reportedly moves military aircraft from UAE to Qatar………… Houthis announce ‘fourth stage of escalation’.
The United States is moving military aircraft, including fighter jets and drones, from the United Arab Emirates to Qatar, the Wall Street Journal reported. The move is the result of the UAE’s decision not to allow the US to carry out air strikes on Yemen and Iraq from the Al Dhafra air base in Abu Dhabi, according to unnamed US officials. The US is allegedly transferring the equipment to Al Udeid air base in Qatar, where its use will not be restricted. The officials explained that the UAE “has grown increasingly nervous that it could be targeted by Iranian proxies in the region if it is seen to be publicly aiding US military operations.”
Houthis announce ‘fourth stage of escalation’
The Yemen-based Houthis declared on Friday the commencement of what they refer to as “the fourth stage of escalation.” This phase revolves around expanding the scope of their military operations to the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, the militia warned that they would impose sanctions on “all ships of companies linked to the occupation [Israel] ports from passing through our area of operations, regardless of their destination,” if the Israeli military proceeds with their planned invasion of Rafah. “The Yemeni armed forces, based on the support of the beloved Yemeni people and all the free people of the nation, will not hesitate to prepare for broader and stronger stages of escalation until the aggression is stopped and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted,” the group added on Telegram.
US and Saudis Near Defense Pact Meant to Reshape Middle East
- Plan would offer incentives for Israel to end war with Hamas
- Accord would pave the way for Saudis to get advanced weapons
The US and Saudi Arabia are nearing a historic pact that would offer the kingdom security guarantees and lay out a possible pathway to diplomatic ties with Israel if its government brings the war in the Gaza Strip to an end, people familiar with the matter said. The agreement faces plenty of obstacles but would amount to a new version of a framework that was scuttled when Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel triggered the conflict in Gaza. Negotiations between Washington and Riyadh have sped up in recent weeks, and many officials are optimistic that they could reach a deal within weeks, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. Such an agreement would potentially reshape the Middle East. Beyond bolstering Israel and Saudi Arabia’s security, it would strengthen the US’s position in the region at the expense of Iran and even China. The pact may offer Saudi Arabia an arrangement strong enough to need the US Senate’s approval and even give the world’s biggest oil exporter access to advanced US weapons that were previously off-limits. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would agree to limit Chinese technology from his nation’s most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments in artificial intelligence and quantum-computing, and get American help to build out its civilian nuclear program. Once the US and Saudi Arabia settle their agreement, they would present Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a choice: either join the deal, which would entail formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia for the first time, more investment and regional integration, or be left behind. The key conditions for Netanyahu would be no small feat — ending the Gaza war and agreeing to a pathway for Palestinian statehood.
The proposal is fraught with doubt and may not come to fruition, which people familiar with the planning readily acknowledge.
Getting American lawmakers to approve a deal that commits the US to protecting Saudi Arabia militarily would be a daunting prospect for the White House, especially if Israel opts not to join it. Many lawmakers remain wary of Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s 38-year-old de facto ruler, after the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in 2018. They’re also uneasy about the Saudi strategy of lowering oil production, along with other members of the OPEC+ cartel, to prop up prices. From the Israeli side, Netanyahu leads the most right-wing government in the country’s history and has all but ruled out a two-state solution. His coalition says it still plans to attack the Gazan city of Rafah, which the US and Arab states fear would lead to thousands more deaths among Palestinian civilians. Such an attack would also jeopardize prospects for a short-term cease-fire that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken — who met Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Wednesday — says is a priority for President Joe Biden. Still, the leaders of the three countries have plenty of incentives to reach an agreement soon. For Biden, it’s a chance for a foreign policy victory before the US presidential election in November. The crown prince would avoid the uncertainty about whether former President Donald Trump would accept a deal if he wins that race, even though Trump’s administration initiated the Abraham Accords that envisioned such alliances between Israel and its neighbors. Netanyahu, the biggest wild card, could take credit for normalizing relations with the biggest economy in the Middle East and guardian of Islam’s holiest sites — a goal he’s long covet For Netanyahu, another advantage is that a pact would help counter Iran’s aggression. Since the war in Gaza erupted, Israel and Iran have exchanged their first-ever direct fire against one another and Tehran’s proxy militias such as Hezbollah have regularly attacked the Jewish state.
NN: Audio File
dump the bump
Israel allegedly believes Hamas won’t accept hostage offer…….. UNRWA: It’ll be hard to evacuate Rafah ‘quickly’
Israeli leadership believes that Hamas will reject the latest offer on hostages that it was presented to it earlier, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday citing an Israeli official. According to the official, the country’s war cabinet is discussing such an outcome and a potential full-on attack on Rafah. Meanwhile, previously, Hamas said in a statement it would be sending its delegation to Egypt again so that the ceasefire talks could continue
UNRWA: It’ll be hard to evacuate Rafah ‘quickly’
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasan told RIA Novosti on Thursday that should Israel conduct its military operation in Rafah, it will be difficult for the agency to carry out evacuations “quickly.” “The process of evacuating the city of Rafah is very dangerous since we are talking about 1.4 million Palestinians in this small, very densely populated area. We do not see the opportunity to quickly carry out evacuation due to the lack of transport, tents etc.,” the spokesperson explained. They shared that the agency has no information on when the operation could take place, adding that Israel’s strike would likely leave thousands dead and injured.
Ukrainian Drones Hit Major Rosneft Refinery in Russia
Ukrainian drones hit the primary refining unit of Russia’s third-largest refinery southeast of Moscow more than 800 miles from the front line, Reuters reported on Tuesday. The Taneco refinery of Russian company Tatneft in Tatarstan, an industrialized region southeast of Moscow, was attacked by Ukrainian drones in the latest such attack from Ukraine on Russian refining infrastructure. The refinery has a capacity to process 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude. Its primary refining unit, with a capacity to process about 155,000 bpd, was hit in Tuesday’s attack, according to pictures seen by Reuters. The unit caught fire, which was swiftly extinguished, Russian media report. They also quote Ramil Mullin, the mayor of the city of Nizhnekamsk, where the refinery is located, as saying that there have been no injured people in the attack.“ There are no injuries or serious damage,” Mullin wrote on Telegram. “The technological process of the enterprise has not been disrupted,” the mayor added. A source with the Ukrainian intelligence in Kyiv told Reuters that Ukraine hit a major Russian oil facility in Tatarstan to reduce Russian oil revenues. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on oil refineries in Russia in recent weeks, which have reduced Russian refining capacity, and which, reportedly, have the White House concerned about rising international prices. The United States has repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries due to Washington’s assessment that the strikes could lead to Russian retaliation and push up global oil prices, the Financial Times reported last month, citing sources familiar with the exchange. According to Reuters estimates, the amount of Russian oil refining capacity that has been taken offline due to Ukrainian drone strikes is 14% of Russia’s total refining capacity. Calculations show that 900,000 bpd of refining capacity have been taken offline by drone strikes, Reuters reported last week.
Blinken, Netanyahu start private meeting in Jerusalem
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken begin their private meeting in Jerusalem. That meeting will be followed by a broader discussion with their respective staffs. On the Israeli side, Netanyahu will be joined by Strategic Affairs Adviser Ron Dermer, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi, Military Secretary Avi Gil, Political Adviser Ophir Falk, Chief of Staff Tzachi Braverman, and Ambassador to Washington Michael Herzog. Blinken will be joined by Ambassador Jack Lew, Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Affairs Lisa Grande, and Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East Barbara Leaf. NN: Their will be no deal. Hamas just needs to set back and wait for the world to force Israel to back down.