BlackMask Breaking News

Three sons and three grandchildren of Ismail Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader and former Palestinian Authority prime minister, were killed in an airstrike, Haniyeh confirmed in an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday. According to Haniyeh, the victims were visiting relatives on the occasion of Eid in the Shati refugee camp in northern Gaza when they were attacked. In addition, he also confirmed the loss of three grandchildren in the same attack. Moreover, the news comes after the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry claimed that 33,500 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war and 76,049 have been wounded.

Crude oil stockpiles in the United States jumped by 5.8 million barrels to stand at 457.3 million barrels in the week ending April 5, the US Energy Information Administration shared in its report on Wednesday. The crude oil refinery inputs in the country averaged 15.8 million barrels per day, decreasing 115,000 barrels per day from the average recorded in the week prior. Refineries operated at 88.3% of their capacity, while gasoline production fell to an average of 9.4 million barrels per day. Imports of crude oil into the US averaged 6.4 million barrels per day, 183,000 barrels per day less in comparison to the previous week. Total commercial petroleum inventories surged by 12.4 million barrels. NN: I do not believe Iran will got to war at this time.

Hamas has dismissed a temporary ceasefire proposal made by the United States, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a senior Israeli official said that Israel is open to the proposal but that “the plan is seen as favoring Hamas.” The proposal envisions a six-week pause during which Hamas would release 40 Israeli hostages, while Israel would liberate 900 Palestinian prisoners. However, according to the report, Hamas disagreed with the temporary nature of the ceasefire, preferring a permanent cessation of hostilities and the complete withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas allegedly refusing to free 40 hostages

Hamas is said to be rejecting Israel’s demand to free 40 hostages as part of a potential ceasefire agreement, Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported. According to the report, Hamas is refusing to release any male soldiers and claims it does not have 40 living elderly or female hostages remaining. On the other hand, Israeli officials insist the Palestinian group does have 40 hostages who meet the required criteria. Meanwhile, a report by Haaretz said that some Israeli cabinet ministers would likely oppose any ceasefire deal that does not include the release of all hostages held by Hamas as they believe such an agreement would give a signal to Hamas that Israel is willing to make big concessions in talks.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must allow more aid into Gaza to “alleviate” the widescale destruction, mass displacement and the imminent threat of famine resulting from the conflict between Israel and Hamas. “I’ve also said repeatedly the situation in Gaza is increasingly intolerable, you know, the humanitarian suffering that people are experiencing isn’t right and Prime Minister Netanyahu needs to do more to alleviate that,” Sunak added during an interview with LBC radio station.The prime minister has previously pleaded for the cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the establishment of a permanent ceasefire following the deaths of British citizens in an airstrike by the Israeli Defense Forces on the World Central Kitchen.

Fitch Ratings revised China’s outlook to negative from stable, saying the government is likely to pile on debt as it seeks to pull the economy out of a real estate-driven slowdown. Growing uncertainty about the outlook for the world’s second-biggest economy, amid Beijing’s drive to make growth less dependent on housing, “could keep debt on a steady upward trend,” Fitch said on Wednesday. China’s government, which has been talking up the prospect of a turnaround in the economy, rapidly pushed back — saying the rating company failed to reflect the role of fiscal policy in shoring up growth, which helps to stabilize debt burdens. Financial markets were unfazed, with China’s 10-year sovereign bond yield little changed at around 2.29%, and the yuan also steady. Fitch’s action matched a similar one by Moody’s Investors Service in December.

“I don’t think this will have much market impact,” said Michelle Lam, an economist at Societe Generale SA, who said the risk for investors from rising Chinese debt is that it will slow growth, not raise sovereign default risks. “China’s debt problem and property crisis are well known and understood by market participants.” The Fitch announcement comes at a crucial time for China’s economy. In the coming week, the government is due to release some key indicators — including first-quarter growth — while the central bank will decide on a key loan rate. Financial markets are closely watching for clues about whether the economy has put the worst behind it, after some encouraging numbers for manufacturing and exports earlier this year. Those data releases are what markets are focusing on, but the Fitch decision “may still hurt near-term market sentiment on China while the confidence level is already low,” said Xiaojia Zhi, an economist at Credit Agricole. China’s public debt has risen rapidly over the past dozen years or so, as the government pumped funds into the economy in a bid to maintain the world-leading growth rates it posted over previous decades. Amid the property slump that’s now threatening to slow output, the government has outlined some new stimulus measures — like subsidies for households and businesses that want to upgrade appliances or machinery — and signaled that more may follow. Public debt was close to 80% of gross domestic product as of the middle of last year, roughly double the level of the mid-2010s, according to the Bank for International Settlements. That’s well below many advanced economies like Japan and the US, though relatively high for an emerging market. Beijing’s own measure for government debt shows it at 56% of GDP at the end of 2023, up sharply since the pandemic.

NN: AUDIO FILE

CHINA IS THE B IN THE DEMAND SIDE OF OUR BINRY  OIL TRADE

OPEC+ once again extended its oil production cuts this month. The decision was anything but unexpected and, unlike previous production policy announcements, it had the desired effect on prices. However, it could only work for so long. Soon, OPEC will need to make a decision. Last year, oil traders were almost exclusively focused on demand and threats thereof, especially in China.

This year, they are beginning to understand that withholding 2.2 million barrels of oil daily while global demand actually rises will, at some point, start eating into supply.

Oil prices are on the rise. True, some OPEC+ members have been producing more than their assigned quota, and they have been asked to take steps to compensate, which normally means temporary deeper cuts. But it seems that overproduction—and the rising output of quota-exempt Iran, Venezuela, and Libya—has not interfered with the purpose of the cuts. Only they cannot continue forever.

Some analysts have noted in the past few months that OPEC+ will have to start unwinding the cuts at some point, especially if Brent crude tops $100 per barrel. The argument made by these analysts is that at that point, prices will start destroying demand as they usually do.

Yet OPEC+ may decide to stick with the cuts until oil is well above $100, according to the CEO of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy, Robin Mills. In a recent opinion piece for The National, Mills suggested sticking with the cuts is one of the two roads ahead of OPEC, with all foreseeable consequences, such as higher inflation and higher U.S. production.

 The other road Mills describes as OPEC believing its own strong demand forecasts and unwinding the cuts.

This is definitely one way of framing the road ahead. In the same vein, however, one could argue that sticking to the cuts is also a sign of belief in OPEC’s strong demand expectations: if demand is so resilient and prone to expand, it will expand even in a higher-price environment.This is precisely what happened in 2022 when the start of the Russia/Ukraine conflict pushed oil above $100 per barrel and held it there long enough for the annual average to come in at close to $95 per barrel. Demand during that year of high oil prices rose by over 2.5 million barrels daily. And that was before China came roaring back from the pandemic lockdowns, which only ended in late 2022. So, while it would make sense to expect OPEC+ to start thinking about putting an end to its production cuts, it might make more sense to keep them in place—not least because an unwinding of the cuts would have about the same effect on prices as the news that U.S. shale output grew by over 1 million bpd last year.OPEC expects oil demand this year to grow by 2.2 million bpd.   NN: (that demand increase will never happen this year or next) With the cuts in place, this rate of demand growth is certain to push the global market into a deficit. Estimates of the size of this deficit vary, with the IEA seeing a “slight” deficit as a result of the OPEC+ cuts and stronger demand prompted by the Red Sea situation. Qamar Energy’s Mills, however, sees a deficit of as much as 4 million barrels daily developing later in the year. Should this happen, there would be nothing easier for OPEC than announcing an end to the cuts, or at least a tweak, to avoid a price slump. And a deficit environment would be the best time to make these tweaks—with prices high and demand resilient, the effect of such an announcement on prices would be mitigated by the fundamentals. Because the cuts can’t go on forever, not when some OPEC members are already grumbling against the quotas.

Hamas is said to be rejecting Israel’s demand to free 40 hostages as part of a potential ceasefire agreement, Israeli public broadcaster Kan reported. According to the report, Hamas is refusing to release any male soldiers and claims it does not have 40 living elderly or female hostages remaining. On the other hand, Israeli officials insist the Palestinian group does have 40 hostages who meet the required criteria. Meanwhile, a report by Haaretz said that some Israeli cabinet ministers would likely oppose any ceasefire deal that does not include the release of all hostages held by Hamas as they believe such an agreement would give a signal to Hamas that Israel is willing to make big concessions in talks.

Biden says Netanyahu making ‘mistake’ in Gaza

United States President Joe Biden said that he considers Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s handling of the war between Israel and Hamas a “mistake,” NBC News reported. “I think what he’s doing is a mistake. I don’t agree with his approach,” Biden said, referring to Netanyahu’s approach to the conflict, during an interview with Univision that aired late Tuesday. Reiterating his previous statement on the Israeli strike that killed seven aid workers in central Gaza, he called the incident “outrageous,” sharing that Israel should “just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, total access to all food and medicine going into the country.” “There’s no excuse to not provide for the medical and the food needs of those people. It should be done now,” Biden stressed, adding that he spoke with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt who are “prepared to move this food in.”

IA Director Bill Burns presented a new proposal to try to bridge the gaps in ongoing negotiations to broker a deal to bring about a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza and the release of the Israeli hostages held by the group, according to a source familiar with the discussions. The latest US proposal was made in Cairo over the weekend and includes pushing Israel to release a higher number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the expected 40 Israeli hostages who would be freed during the first phase of a three-stage ceasefire deal. A second source, a diplomat, said the US proposal is for Israel to release 900 Palestinian prisoners in the first phase of a deal. Prior to this round of talks, CNN had reported that negotiators had discussed the release of around 700 Palestinian prisoners, including many with life sentences. Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials, along with Burns, were in Cairo over the weekend for the negotiations. Hamas also met officials from Egypt’s Intelligence Service in Cairo, Egyptian state media said. The US would also like Palestinian residents of northern Gaza who have fled south to be allowed to return home to the north without restrictions, the source said. So far, Israel has rejected the Hamas demands of an unrestricted return of Gazans to the north and the redeployment of IDF troops away from central Gaza. Israel has insisted on inspections of Palestinians moving north, a diplomat familiar with the talks told CNN.

On those two thorny points the sides are still “way off,” the diplomat said. “We’re not anticipating resolving these issues in the next couple of days.”

Earlier on Monday, Al Jazeera reported that the latest proposal put to Israel and Hamas included the release of 900 Palestinian prisoners. Everyone agreed to study the new US proposal, the first source said, and it will be communicated to Hamas leadership in Gaza which ultimately makes the decisions for the group. Given the difficulties of communicating with Hamas leaders who are believed to be hiding in Gaza’s vast underground tunnel system, getting a response can take several days. A senior Hamas official speaking to CNN said the group will return to Cairo “as soon as the opportunity presents itself,” but could not place a firm timeframe on when that would happen. The official added that the latest proposals presented by Israel during the talks in Egypt did not address the unrestricted movement of Palestinians in the south to the north – a key demand for the group. “The [Israeli] proposal does not respond to the questions that [Hamas] has asked in its original proposal, and that is that any agreement should clearly include a ceasefire, a complete withdrawal of [Israeli] troops – even if it happens through stages – and the return of the displaced in complete freedom to their homes,” the official told CNN.

Israeli negotiators have shown a willingness in recent weeks to negotiate the return of Palestinians to northern Gaza but have continued to insist on some degree of security oversight by Israeli forces along the so-called Netzarim corridor which cuts across the middle of Gaza and a limited number of people moving north per day.

Mediators have been trying for months to seal an agreement between Hamas and Israel for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. But the prolonged negotiation has been marred by disagreements. On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he’d been updated on the negotiations but underlined his determination to send troops into Rafah, saying he’d set a date for the operation in a video released on his Telegram account. The US has set out its opposition to such a move. “Today I received a detailed report on the talks in Cairo. We are constantly working to achieve our goals, primarily the release of all our hostages and achieving a complete victory over Hamas. This victory requires entry into Rafah and the elimination of the terrorist battalions there. It will happen, there is a date,” Netanyahu said.

Earlier, a Qatari representative voiced optimism about the state of the talks.

“We are by no means at the last stretch of these talks, but if you ask me if I am more optimistic today than I was a couple of days ago, then I would say yes,” Qatar’s foreign ministry’s spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari told the BBC. Ansari said mediators are waiting for replies from Hamas and Israel over proposals from different parties, including the United States. “I can’t go into the details of these proposals, but I can tell you it bridges the gap in a way that hasn’t been done in the last couple of months,” Ansari said.

Oil prices retreated at the start of the week on signs that there is a possibility of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. “It appears the catalyst is Israel saying it has withdrawn all troops except one brigade from the Southern Gaza strip, likely in response to growing international pressure and to deescalate tensions after it killed senior Iranian commanders in Syria last week,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters. The Iranian response to the Israeli strike on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus, however, is still a factor for prices, and a bullish one, at that, after President Ebrahim Raisi vowed there would be revenge. Fundamental factors are also very much still in play, with one Mizuho Bank analyst telling Bloomberg that geopolitical developments have only served to highlight the tight supply situation in oil markets. “Oil’s upside volatility remains very much present, and that’s to a large part thanks to geopolitics amplifying supply shortfalls elsewhere,” Vishnu Varathan said. The price decline also comes in anticipation of three closely watched reports about the state of the global oil market coming out this week. The Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook is first, due out on Tuesday. Then comes OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report, scheduled for Thursday, and the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report a day later. The latter two reports will probably attract the most attention due to their growing divergence that led to vocal criticism of the IEA by senior OPEC figures. They accused the agency of betraying its original purpose and turning into a “cheerleader” for the energy transition as a group of U.S. Republican lawmakers called it.