BlackMask Breaking News

• “We really need this deal because we really need this pause,” a U.S. official told Axios on Saturday.
• The Biden administration is highly concerned about a possible Israeli military operation in Rafah, where over a million Palestinians are living.
• The U.S. fears the operation could move forward within weeks if a hostage deal isn’t achieved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas will delay an IDF operation in Rafah, but stressed Israel will still conduct the operation later. The Biden administration is working to reach a hostage deal that would lead to at least six weeks of cease-fire in Gaza. U.S., Qatari and Egyptian officials presented a more detailed framework for a hostage deal to Israeli negotiators during a key meeting in Paris on Friday, sources told Axios. The updated framework proposes that Hamas release roughly 40 hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the freeing of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, the sources said. The deal would also allow some Palestinians to begin returning to northern Gaza. NN: I see a  framework of a deal in place by Ramadan which starts in 14 days on March 11 and ends April 9th.

https://youtu.be/330VT7d5Vac

ALBAWABA –  Sources told AlArabiya that the current Palestinian government, headed by Mohammad Shtayyeh, will be resigning on Tuesday, and is most likely to be replaced with a Technocrat Government formed and headed by Dr Mohammad Mustafa as incoming Prime Minister. The source told AlArabiya that the new to-be-formed government will be solely a technocrat government, with competent ministers to handle the deteriorating situation in Palestine. Dr. Mohammad Mustafa is most likely to succeed Mohammad Shtayyeh, who has been occupying the position for almost five years. Many reports said that the White House has been pushing for forming a new Palestinian Authority (PA) to open a clean slate, moving past the corruption that has been eating at the PA for years.  Dr. Mohammad Mustafa is currently on the PLO executive committee as an independent member without any political ties. He’s held various leadership positions, like Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy. He also oversaw the Gaza Reconstruction in 2014 and attracted over USD 1.2 billion in foreign investments to Palestine, creating about 75,000 jobs. He’s also served as an economic adviser to President Abbas and worked with the Saudi Public Investment Fund and the Kuwaiti Government. NN: In essence they are organizing to replace Hamas in Gaza

Israel’s war cabinet is expected to convene Saturday night for a briefing on efforts advancing in Paris toward a deal to pause the fighting in Gaza and return hostages held there. Israeli media, citing people familiar with the situation, reported that talks on Friday involving the Israeli delegation and representatives from the US, Egypt and Qatar had yielded a breakthrough. The talks “were very good and saw real progress,” Haaretz reported, citing people it didn’t identify. The status of the talks couldn’t be independently verified. Based on the progress seen, the parties will soon be able to present Hamas with an updated framework for a deal to exchange Israeli hostages held in Gaza with Palestinian prisoners in Israel in the near future, according to the report. A foreign diplomat who wasn’t identified told Haaretz that “all sides are showing flexibility, and a deal could be reached even before Ramadan,” which starts on the evening of March 10.  Separately, the Saudi Asharq network reported that Hamas has softened some of its key demands around a possible hostage release deal. Hamas appears ready to accept an initial truce of six weeks instead of a permanent cease-fire, according to the network, which was cited by the Times of Israel. Axios on Saturday reported a proposal that Hamas release roughly 40 hostages in exchange for a six-week cease fire and the freeing of “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners in Israel. The rising civilian death toll and severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza have increased calls for a ceasefire in the Israeli offensive aimed at wiping out Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist group by the US and the EU.

The US has called on Netanyahu to hold off the next stage of military action in Gaza, aimed at the city of Rafah in south, until he can provide a clear plan to help civilians.

Desperate Gazans have sought refuge in Rafah, and many are now living in tents and on streets, facing hunger and illness. Forcing them to return to areas razed by Israel’s ground and air assaults is expected to add to a death toll that’s already exceeded 29,000 in Gaza since war erupted, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry. NN: Enormous pressure is on Israel to do this deal. Odds are this deal will happen. And it could knock $10 off the price of oil.

Haaretz quotes informed sources saying that the progress at the Paris summit will enable the sides to present to Hamas an updated framework for a deal. “Continuing progress is now up to Hamas,” it quoted an unnamed foreign diplomat saying. The Israeli source says that the outline will first be presented to the war cabinet for approval, followed by the wider cabinet. The Maariv newspaper reports that the war cabinet is set to meet tonight to hear updates from Paris. The next stage of the talks, according to the Israeli source, will focus on the central issue of which hostages held by terror groups in Gaza and which Palestinian security prisoners will be released in the truce, along with the specifics of the duration of the truce and the IDF’s deployment while it is in force. The reports note that these details are yet to be agreed upon. Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar were in Paris for the talks.. NN: Their is a deal to be had. And if not their will be a blood bath.

Oil prices have remained rangebound in recent weeks, with macro concerns driving the direction of both Brent and WTI. Oil trading in the past weeks has seen remarkably little volatility, with Brent futures moving within a narrow bandwidth between $81 and $84 per barrel lately. Macro factors seem to be dominating the minor day-on-day moves in crude, with two Federal Reserve governors warning against interest rate cuts in the next two months. Consequently, oil prices are set to end the week at a slight decline, with Brent closing the week around $82 per barrel. Last week, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil demand growth is losing momentum, with demand growth clocking in at 1.4 mb/d in January, down from 2.8 mb/d in 3Q23 to 1.8 mb/d in 4Q23. According to the IEA, the expansive post-pandemic demand growth phase has largely run its course. Last year, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund became the world’s top spender, accounting for a quarter of the $124 billion that sovereign wealth funds invested in total. Saudi Arabia has been spending heavily both abroad and at home—the home of the world’s megaprojects, such as the $500-billion futuristic Neom project and a whole new airline, among others. As a result, last year, the Public Investment Fund’s cash and treasury assets slimmed from over $105 billion in 2022 to some $37 billion as of September, according to official Saudi data cited by the Wall Street Journal this week. It’s getting harder to keep up with all the megaprojects—and oil prices remain stuck at around $80 per barrel. Saudi Arabia has tried its best to prop oil prices up and keep funding its ambitious Vision 2030 program—Crown Prince Mohammed’s plan for turning Saudi Arabia into a diversified economy. There is nowhere else this money can come from except oil. The kingdom is stretching itself thinner and thinner. The decline in sovereign wealth fund money was part of the reason why Saudi Arabia announced earlier this month it would cancel a planned oil production capacity expansion. Energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman cited plans to redirect investments to other areas of Aramco’s business as one reason for the decision and intentions to invest more in the energy transition as another. Bin Salman also noted that thanks to the current production curbs, there is a pretty soft cushion of around 3 million barrels in spare capacity in case supply suddenly tightens elsewhere. But whether the Saudis would really use the capacity cushion in case of a supply disruption is quite another question. When you’re up to your neck in projects whose total price tag is well over a trillion dollars, letting a good supply disruption go to waste would be inadvisable.  But if thir is peace in the valley their is another solution, Debt!! It is certainly one way to keep funding the kingdom’s transformation projects. With the prospect of rate cuts on the horizon, debt markets would certainly begin looking a lot more tempting than they did over the past two years. More borrowing may be on the way. Oil prices may be doomed. Major acquisitions in the shale fields last year are now likely to have their own impact on production trends as more production in the shale patch becomes concentrated in fewer hands. Prices are  doomed as the cost of shake production plunge thanks to the economics of scale and technologies that increases yield proliferate.

https://youtu.be/FlIRGh9QqX4

RAFAH, Gaza Strip/CAIRO/JERUSALEM (Reuters) -Israeli bombing on Thursday flattened a mosque and destroyed homes in Rafah in a fierce surge of violence in the city, while the Hamas chief was in Cairo for talks Gazans hope could bring a truce and head off a full-blown assault on the city. In Khan Younis, the territory’s principal battlefield since Israel launched an assault on the city last month, Israeli forces withdrew from the Nasser Medical Complex a week after raiding it, the Palestinian enclave’s health ministry said. The World Health Organization had said earlier it aimed to evacuate some of the roughly 140 patients stranded there, where Palestinian officials said bodies of dead patients had begun to decompose amid power cuts and fighting. Israel gave no immediate comment. In Rafah the city hard against the Egyptian border, where over half of the Palestinian enclave’s 2.3 million people huddled, mostly in tents.  Israel has threatened to launch a full-blown attack on Rafah, the last city at Gaza’s southern edge, despite international pleas – including from its main ally Washington – for restraint. Residents who have fled to Rafah from elsewhere say there is nowhere left to go. Meanwhile, an already meagre aid flow has almost completely dried up. The heads of the main UN relief agencies, including UNHCR, UNICEF, WFP and the WHO, released a letter pleading for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire and warning that further escalation into Rafah would cause mass casualties. Talks to reach a ceasefire failed two weeks ago, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a counteroffer from Hamas for a four-and-a-half month truce that would end with an Israeli withdrawa. Hamas, still believed to be holding more than 100 hostages, says it will not free them unless Israel agrees to end fighting and withdraw. Israel says it will not pull out until Hamas is eradicated. The arrival of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Cairo this week for his first publicly announced visit since December was the strongest sign for weeks that negotiations remain alive. Haniyeh has met Egyptian mediators, but so far little has been said in public. Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official, told Reuters that Israel was now backtracking on terms the country had accepted weeks ago in a ceasefire offer hammered out with U.S., Egyptian and Qatari mediators. NN: Hamas is losing control.Starving masses are  difficult to control. Soon the food riots will come. The longer Hamas waits to make a deal the  worse deal they will make.