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Israeli govt. votes to send mission to Paris talks…. US reportedly urges Israel to bring officials for Paris hostage talks

The Israeli war cabinet has unanimously voted to send a delegation to Paris to engage in high-level discussions aimed at securing a hostage deal and a truce in the ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza, the Times of Israel reported on Thursday.

This move follows reports that Hamas has shown flexibility regarding the terms of a potential framework deal. Additionally, the United States has been actively pressing for an agreement.

So far, there has been no official confirmation from the government.

US reportedly urges Israel to bring officials for Paris hostage talks

President Joe Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, has encouraged Israel to participate in the upcoming hostage negotiation talks in Paris, Axios reported on Thursday, citing three sources with knowledge of the matter. This initiative is part of a broader US strategy to secure a deal before Ramadan, aiming for a temporary ceasefire during the holy month. However, significant challenges remain as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu maintains a strict negotiation stance. The report coincides with a letter from thirteen Jewish House Democrats to President Biden, advocating for exhaustive efforts to facilitate a ceasefire and secure the release of all hostages.

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EIA Confirms Crude Build, Surprises with Products Draw

Crude oil prices moved slightly higher today, after the Energy Information Administration reported an inventory increase of 3.5 million barrels for the week to February 16. This followed a sizeable build of 12 million barrels for a week that also saw gasoline and middle distillate fuel inventories decline. For the week to February 16, the EIA also reported an estimated gasoline inventory draw of 300,000 barrels, which compared with a decline of 3.7 million barrels for the previous week. Gasoline production averaged 9 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 9.2 million barrels daily for the previous week. In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory draw of 4 million barrels for the week to February 16, which compared with an inventory draw of 1.9 million barrels for the previous week. Middle distillate production averaged 4.2 million barrels daily last week, which compared with 4.1 million barrels daily for the week before. A week before the EIA released its weekly report, the American Petroleum Institute’s inventory estimates for the week to February 16 showed a build of 7.2 million barrels in crude oil, plus a minor build in gasoline stocks, of less than 500,000 barrels and a sizeable draw in middle distillates, by close to 3 million barrels. Oil prices, meanwhile, have been on the rise, mostly fueled by events in the Middle East, where the Israel-Hamas war shows no signs of progress toward peace. Despite the API’s report on Wednesday, prices gained, to end the session higher, with West Texas Intermediate settling 1.1% higher and Brent booking a 0.8% gain for the day. At the time of writing, the benchmarks were still trending higher, likely on indications of a tightening supply situation, as suggested by a Bloomberg report, citing timespreads on the oil market. Worries about oil demand in the light of signals from the Fed that it will not rush with rate cuts countered the bullish effect of Middle East affairs and the perception of a tightening supply situation. NN: Oil is oversupplied. And I believe Israel will be forced to stand down.

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Senior Hamas official indicates breakthrough in hostage negotiations may be on the horizon

Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk says that there may be breakthroughs in hostage negotiations in the near future. In an interview with the Egyptian Al-Ghad channel, Abu Marzouk says that from the terror group’s standpoint, the main obstacle to a hostage deal is Israel’s refusal to withdraw its ground forces from the Gaza Strip, especially from the north-south Salah al-Din axis and the coastal Rashid street. He reiterates that Hamas’s conditions for a ceasefire are a cessation of hostilities and the return of displaced people to northern Gaza. He adds that the terror group demands the release of 500 Palestinian prisoners for every Israeli hostage, of whom there are 134 still in captivity, and vows that Hamas “will continue its struggle until victory or martyrdom” and will not lay down its weapons. Regarding the future of the coastal enclave, Abu Marzouk says that Hamas does not see it as a goal to govern the Strip, but rather thinks that this should fall upon the Palestinian Authority, adding that Hamas members have met with representatives from Fatah and with Muhammad Dahlan, the Gazan exiled leader of the Democratic Reform Bloc within Fatah. NN: Their is no good way out of this for Israel. The problem is the pressure from America to end hostilities  is to intense.  A civil crises in Rafah is the straw that will break the camels back

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Israeli officials admit: IDF has no concrete plan for Rafah invasion

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his call for the IDF to draw up a plan for evacuating Palestinian civilians from the southermost city in the Strip.

Israeli officials have privately admitted that the IDF has no “precise” strategy for the invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Bloomberg reported that “officials acknowledge in private they have no precise strategy for how to [attack in Rafah], how long it will take or where the people will go.” Speaking to Bloomberg on Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his call for the IDF to draw up a plan for evacuating Palestinian civilians from the southermost city in the Strip.

Egypt: Israel must tread carefully before deciding on Rafah offensive

Earlier on Thursday, it was reported that Egypitan officials told Israeli counterparts to “carefully study any step” before launching a military offensive into Rafah.  The officials told their Israeli counterparts that encroaching into Rafah would “increase the risk to the lives of” the 132 hostages remaining in Gaza, and called on the IDF to “prepare to bear the consequences” of such invasion. NN:  Israel is trapped. It cannot invade Rafah with over a million displaced people Hamas will use as shields. And create a humanitarian crises that they will own.

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Israel: Initial signs show ‘progress’ toward new hostage deal

Israeli Minister Without Portfolio Benny Gantz, who is also part of the Israeli war cabinet, said on Wednesday that “initial signs” show “progress can be made” toward a new hostage release framework.”We will not miss any opportunity to bring the [hostages] home,” Gantz underscored during the press conference in Tel Aviv, stressing that “no stone will be left unturned” until all those abducted on October 7 have safely been brought back home. However, Gantz clarified that without the outline of the possible hostage release deal, Israeli forces will continue to operate in Rafah during Ramadan. Gantz also expressed his support for the Knesset’s rejection of unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood, stressing that establishing a Palestinian state would be a “reward” for terrorism. NN:  Getting closer all the time.

Oil prices up, WTI over 1%

The prices of oil futures rose on Wednesday as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept on lifting investors’ worries about a possible escalation of conflict, which could disrupt the global supply of the commodity. Earlier, Israel carried out airstrikes in Damascus, Syria, leaving two people dead and it confirmed that it destroyed a Hamas tunnel. In addition, Iran blamed Israel for a ‘terrorist’ attack against a natural gas pipeline. Also, Houthis kept targeting international vessels in the Red Sea.

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Israel reportedly refuses it sent delegation to Cairo…. Israeli delegation reportedly to arrive in Cairo today

Israel has not yet made a decision to dispatch a delegation to Cairo for further discussions regarding a potential hostage release agreement with Hamas, The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday, citing an Israeli official. According to the source, the country is being “cautious” and is awaiting evidence that Hamas has “softened its position” before sending negotiators. Earlier today, the Ynet news site cited a Saudi newspaper and reported that an Israeli delegation could potentially be in Cairo as early as today, due to the group’s allegedly more flexible position regarding the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

Israeli delegation reportedly to arrive in Cairo today

An Israeli delegation is scheduled to travel to Cairo today to continue talks about a potential exchange of hostages and a ceasefire agreement with Hamas representatives, the Ynet news site reported on Wednesday, citing the Saudi newspaper Al-Sharq. “There is progress in Egypt’s discussions with Hamas regarding the deal. Hamas has softened its positions and Egypt is working to achieve similar flexibility with the Israeli delegation as well,” the newspaper wrote. The report comes after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh arrived in Cairo yesterday, following stalled negotiations for a temporary ceasefire and hostage deal that are being mediated by American, Qatari, and Egyptian officials.

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WTI falls almost 2% on economic uncertainty

Prices of crude oil for front-month settlements tumbled on Tuesday after data showed that economic growth in both Germany and Britain stagnated, with Berlin and London entering a technical recession in the closing quarter of 2023. Economic uncertainty appeared to raise concerns about the commodity’s demand thus briefly offsetting supply pressures driven by the Middle East turmoil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April contracts dropped 1.96% to $76.91 per barrel at 10:44 am ET. Brent for the same month’s deliveries was down 1.66% to $82.14 a barrel. NN: Do not forget the slowdown in  China and the good ole USA. Add to all this the war premium coming out of oil  as Israel is forced into not only a cease fire but a complete withdrawal from Gaza.

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China cuts mortgage rates by record amount….. But still no Cookie to help struggling property sector

China made its biggest ever cut to mortgage rates on Tuesday, as the authorities try to support the struggling property sector, though the response from stock markets was muted. The People’s Bank of China said that the country’s lenders would reduce their five-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 25 basis points to 3.95%, a bigger cut than expected and the first since June last year. The one-year LPR was maintained at 3.45%. The lowering of borrowing costs was “a logical inevitability,” said Wei Yao, economist at Societe Generale, as Beijing battles to support an economy buffeted by a collapsing property market that has hit consumer sentiment amid slow growth and a deflationary environment. “This rate matters specifically for the housing sector as it is the reference rate for household mortgages and long-term corporate loans,” Yao added. “Clearly, the PBoC wants to direct its easing to the housing market, which has continued to weaken around the turn of the year.” The loosening of monetary policy is just the latest in a number of moves by China’s government to lift investor sentiment after the Shanghai Composite index hit a five-year low at the start of February. In recent weeks Beijing has said it would support the stock market by encouraging government-linked funds to purchase equities, and on Feb. 7 it replaced the head securities regulator with a veteran deemed more market- friendley. However, the response to Tuesday’s rate-cut news was muted, with the Shanghai Composite adding 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rising 0.5%.

Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said the latest move by Beijing shows the government is intensifying its efforts to stabilize the stock market and bolster the economic recovery amid ongoing challenges, but that more was needed.

“To be sure, Beijing has cobbled together a rescue package aimed at purchasing stocks, signaling a proactive approach to addressing market turmoil. The breadth of measures is encouraging but likely to lead to another chorus of calls for much greater fiscal and monetary stimulus,” said Innes. NN: China the lynch pin of the consumption part of our oil trade is in a massive deflation. Along with Euro pe. Which means oil demand as reported by the IEA if falling.

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US calls for temporary ceasefire in UN…. UK’s Cameron calls for Gaza ceasefire ‘right now’

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 19 (Reuters) – The United States has proposed a rival draft United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a temporary ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and opposing a major ground offensive by its ally Israel in Rafah, according to the text seen by Reuters.

The move comes after the U.S. signalled it would veto on Tuesday an Algerian-drafted resolution — demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire — over concerns it could jeopardize talks between the U.S., Egypt, Israel and Qatar that seek to broker a pause in the war and the release of hostages held by Hamas. Until now, Washington has been averse to the word ceasefire in any U.N. action on the Israel-Hamas war, but the U.S. text echoes language that President Joe Biden said he used last week in conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It would see the Security Council “underscore its support for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practicable, based on the formula of all hostages being released, and calls for lifting all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale.”The United States does “not plan to rush” to a vote and intends to allow time for negotiations, a senior U.S. administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said on Monday. To pass, a resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the U.S., France, Britain, Russia or China. The U.S. draft text “determines that under current circumstances a major ground offensive into Rafah would result in further harm to civilians and their further displacement including potentially into neighboring countries.” Israel plans to storm Rafah, where more than 1 million of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza have sought shelter, prompting international concern that an assault would sharply worsen the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The U.N. has warned it “could lead to a slaughter.”

The draft U.S. resolution says such a move “would have serious implications for regional peace and security, and therefore underscores that such a major ground offensive should not proceed under current circumstances.” Washington traditionally shields Israel from U.N. action and has twice vetoed council resolutions since the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas militants. But it has also abstained twice, allowing the council to adopt resolutions that aimed to boost aid to Gaza and called for extended pauses in fighting. This is the second time since Oct. 7 that Washington has proposed a Security Council resolution on Gaza. Russia and China vetoed its first attempt in late October.

While the U.S. was ready to protect Israel by vetoing the Algerian draft resolution on Tuesday, International Crisis Group U.N. Director Richard Gowan said Israel would be more concerned by the text Washington drafted. “The simple fact that the U.S. is tabling this text at all is a warning shot for Netanyahu,” he said. “It is the strongest signal the U.S. has sent at the U.N. so far that Israel cannot rely on American diplomatic protection indefinitely.” Israel’s mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the U.S. draft.
A second senior U.S. administration official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. draft does not suggest “anything about the dynamics of any particular relationship, whether that’s with the Israelis or any other partner we have.”
The draft U.S. text would condemn calls by some Israeli government ministers for Jewish settlers to move to Gaza and would reject any attempt at demographic or territorial change in Gaza that would violate international law.
The resolution would also reject “any actions by any party that reduce the territory of Gaza, on a temporary or permanent basis, including through the establishment officially or unofficially of so-called buffer zones, as well as the widespread, systematic demolition of civilian infrastructure.”
Reuters reported in December that Israel told several Arab states that it wants to carve out a buffer zone inside Gaza’s borders to prevent attacks after the war ends. NN: Israel is about to push things to far. And Biden with one eye glued to the Hamas Israel polling is about to shut off weapons and money to Israel.
UK’s Cameron calls for Gaza ceasefire ‘right now’

United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Cameron  urged an immediate cessation of hostilities in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza while speaking to reporters on Monday in the Falkland Islands. “But let’s make that happen, let’s have the stop to the fighting right now, have that hostage release and then build on it from here. That’s what we need to happen rather than an offensive in Rafah,” Cameron added.

Instead of launching an offensive in Rafah, he called for a pause in the conflict to allow for the safe exit of hostages and the entry of humanitarian assistance.

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EU calls for ‘immediate humanitarian pause’ in Gaza…… Biden’s adviser reportedly to visit Israel, Egypt

The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said on Monday that 26 of 27 member states are urging the parties in the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas to agree on an “immediate humanitarian pause that would lead to a sustainable ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.”We also agreed that Israel needs to do more to facilitate aid and protect civilians,” the EU’s top diplomat stated during the press conference following the Foreign Affairs Council. However, Borrell did not reveal which country did not agree with the statement, but the media outlets reported, citing diplomatic sources, that it was Hungary. NN: The cries for a cease fire become louder and longer from more and more governments. I am afraid Israel will be forced to shut down operations before it get the job done.

Biden’s adviser reportedly to visit Israel, Egypt

United States National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, (pictured) will allegedly visit Egypt and Israel during the week to discuss the possible Israeli military operation in the Gazan city of Rafah and efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, Axios reported, citing Israeli and US officials. McGurk will meet Egypt’s Director of the General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel on Wednesday before talking with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday, according to the news agency. The reported visit will come after Netanyahu announced on Saturday that Israel will enter Rafah even if a ceasefire is agreed upon.