Israel has rejected a proposal for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip tabled by Hamas, Al Jazeera reported on Thursday. Hamas submitted its conditions earlier this week in response to terms proposed by Egyptian and Qatari mediators. The Palestinian group later accused Israel of “evading” its proposal. The report cited unnamed sources as saying that the latest round of ceasefire negotiations in Cairo ended unsuccessfully as Israel “rejected Hamas’ request for a permanent ceasefire, the army’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, and the return of the displaced without conditions.” NN: This is how negotiations work with terrorists. Once again Israel will be forced to stop before it kills the beast.
German factory orders down 11.3% in January
Seasonally and price-adjusted new factory orders in Germany declined by 11.3% in January compared to the previous month, the country’s Federal Statistical Office Destatis revealed in a report published on Thursday. Foreign orders dropped by 11.4% compared to December, while domestic orders declined by 11.2%. New orders from the euro area plunged by 25.7%, while new orders from other countries increased by 1.6% month on month. New orders of intermediate goods decreased by 9.3% and capital goods orders plummeted by 13.1%, while orders of consumer goods declined by 5.7%. On an annual basis, calendar-adjusted new factory orders decreased by 6% in January. NN: This is known as a economic slow own. No matter how much blue sky them try to blow up your ass oil demand is plunging.
API Reports US oil inventories up by 423,000 barrels
Crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 423,000 barrels in the week that ended March 1st, private data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reportedly showed on Tuesday. Distillate inventories are said to have declined by 1.8 million barrels, whereas gasoline stockpiles saw a decline of 2.8 million barrels. During the corresponding week, reserves in Cushing, Oklahoma, allegedly added 500,000 barrels.
On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 0.7 million barrels as of March 1. Inventories are now at 361 million barrels—the highest level since May 2023.
Cushing inventories rose again this week, by 500,000 barrels after rising by 1.825 million barrels in the previous week.
Eurozone’s retail sales down 1% in January…… US factory orders down by 3.6% in January
Retail trade in the euro area slipped by 1% in January compared to the same month a year ago, while in the entire European Union, the figure fell by 0.6%, Eurostat revealed in its report on Wednesday. On a monthly basis, the reading was up 0.1% in the Eurozone and rose 0.3% in the entire EU. The sales of non-food products in the Eurozone and the EU decreased by 0.2% and increased by 0.1% month on month, while food, drinks, and tobacco retail trade rose by 1% and 0.8% in the corresponding regions. The sales of automotive fuels grew by 1.7% in the euro area and were up by 1.2% in the EU. Countries marking the highest monthly growth in retail sales were Luxembourg with 7.6%, Romania with 3.8%, and Cyprus with 1.5%. Conversely, the biggest falls were observed in Estonia, where they reached negative 2.6%, and Slovakia and Latvia, which recorded negative 1% and negative 0.8%.
US factory orders down by 3.6% in January
New orders for manufactured goods in the United States observed a monthly decrease of 3.6% or $21.5 billion to come in at $569.7 billion in January, the Census Bureau said in its report published on Tuesday. Shipments decreased $5.7 billion or 1% to stand at $572.3 billion. Unfilled orders increased by $2.1 billion or 0.2% to $1,4 billion. Inventories decreased by 0.1% or $800 million month-on-month to reach $855.8 billion. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.50, up from 1.48 in December. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $21.5 billion or 3.6% to $569.7 billion. NN: like i been saying a global economic slow down.
US must pressure Israel into accepting Gaza ceasefire deal, Hamas says
Hamas senior official: It is now in the hands of the Americans if they are serious about achieving a ceasefire before Ramadan
The United States must pressure Israel to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal agreement with Hamas, a senior official from the Gazan terror group told NBC on Tuesday. “It is now in the hands of the Americans if they are serious about achieving a ceasefire before Ramadan,” NBC quoted the official as saying in a voice note, “to exercise enough pressure on the Israelis.” Hamas negotiators will remain in Cairo for another day at the request of mediators, keeping ceasefire talks going after two days with no breakthrough, another official from Hamas said on Tuesday. The Cairo talks have been billed as a final hurdle to reach the first extended ceasefire in the war between Hamas and Israel- a 40-day truce during which Israeli hostages would be freed and aid pumped into Gaza – ahead of Ramadan, which is due to begin at the start of next week. “The delegation will remain in Cairo on Tuesday for more talks; they are expected to wrap up this round later today,” a Hamas official told Reuters. Egypt’s Qahera television also reported the talks had been extended for a third day but said they were “facing difficulties.” Earlier, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim told Reuters the terrorist group had presented its proposal for a ceasefire agreement to the mediators and was now waiting for a response from the Israelis, who have stayed away from this round. “(Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu doesn’t want to reach an agreement, and the ball is now in the Americans’ court” to press him for a deal, Naim said. A senior Israeli official asked about Naim’s comments that Israel was holding up the deal, said: “The claim is incorrect. Israel is making every effort to reach an agreement. We are awaiting a response from Hamas.”
Oil drops 1% amid China economy growth target
Crude oil for front-month settlements fell by over 1% on Tuesday as targets set by China, the world’s largest crude oil importer, regarding its economic growth, failed to raise optimism among investors. Namely, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced that the economic authorities set a gross domestic product growth target of approximately 5% for 2024. Additionally, the Asian country aims to bring its unemployment rate to 5.5%, while it plans to increase its military budget to 7.2%. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping remarked that the country will introduce extraordinary measures in order to “deepen reforms in all-round way.” West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April contracts declined 1.42% to $77.67 a barrel at 8:31 am ET. Brent for May deliveries dropped by 1.27% to trade at $81.93 per barrel at the same time. NN: this shoots the demand part of the oil equation in the ass.
Cairo Talks Boycotted by Israel End With No Breakthrough……. U.S. Demands Rafah Humanitarian Plan
Egyptian source to Sky News: Despite difficulties in talks, reports on no Cairo breakthrough are false
The latest round of ceasefire talks have broken up without a breakthrough. Meanwhile, global internet cables have been cut in the Red Sea that provide data to Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Without a temporary truce over Ramadan, which begins 10 March, the conflict could get worse both in Gaza and on the West Bank, he said. “We could see Hamas fomenting some kind of uprising on the West Bank and that could be made worse by the far-right members of Netanyahu’s Israeli government talking about restricting access to Temple Mount”. Temple Mount, in Jerusalem, is host to Dome of the Rock and al Aqsa mosque, two Muslim holy sites, as well as being a sacred place for Jews, with the Western Wall located there. Hamas have called for Palestinian Muslims to ignore any restrictions and march on the mosque. Israel have also threatened to begin a ground offensive in Rafah should Hamas not release all hostages by Ramadan. “The question now is whether the talks can be put back together over the coming days before the Ramadan holy month begins,” said Bunkall. He said we could be seeing “stalling tactics” that precede a breakthrough – or things may “go from bad to worse”.
OPEC+ Will Soon Confront a Tougher Oil-Market Test
Producers may need to stick with output curbs for the entire year, and the cooperation of all is far from guaranteed.
OPEC+ may have put a floor under crude prices by extending oil supply cuts for another quarter, but the group will soon face a more grueling test. Saudi Arabia and its partners agreed Sunday to keep roughly 2 million barrels of daily output offline until midyear, a move that should balance global markets and buoy futures above $80 a barrel. Bullish traders may even cheer that alliance member Russia has pledged to focus more on constricting production than exports. If Moscow follows through, that may help tighten inventories when oil demand climbs during summer in the Northern Hemisphere. Yet a tougher choice lies in store when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners hold their next ministerial meeting, scheduled for June 1 in Vienna. If the coalition wants to prevent global markets from tipping back into surplus, it may need to persevere with output curbs for the entire year, projections from the International Energy Agency show. Other forecasters, such as Standard Chartered Plc, contend that demand will be strong enough for OPEC+ to relax the cuts and revive production. Saudi Arabia has shown it’s willing to keep a tight rein on supplies, but if cutbacks are prolonged further, the cooperation of fellow OPEC+ members is far from guaranteed. The producers have been restraining output — and sacrificing sales volumes — for most of the time since the group was founded in 2016. They must weigh up how much longer to keep oil in the ground when the energy transition is starting to erode demand growth. The United Arab Emirates is now sitting on about 1.5 million barrels a day of idle output, or about a third of its total, after investing substantially in new facilities. Abu Dhabi has always been eager to monetize its capacity, and has clashed before with Riyadh over the right to have it recognized. Then there’s Iraq, which is once again flouting its OPEC+ production quota while seeking revenues to rebuild its shattered economy. Baghdad has promised to do better, and will need to deliver for the group’s collective effort to succeed. “The need for unity and discipline must prevail,” brokerage PVM Oil Associates said. “OPEC+ will be sorely tested in 2024.” NN: what do you think will happen price of oil When and if Mr drill baby drill TRUMP becomes president. And he is a contender.
Oil Swings Near $83 as Macro Concerns Counter OPEC+ Supply Cuts
- OPEC and its allies extended output cuts to the end of June
- China unveils 5% GDP growth target this year at key meeting
Oil fluctuated between gains and losses as the economic outlook in the biggest importer China vied with OPEC+’s widely expected extension of output cuts. A slew of announcements from China’s National People’s Congress received only a lukewarm response from investors. Crude has been on a slow-motion ascent that has seen Brent gain around 7% this year, aided by strength in physical markets as chunks of global shipping avoid the Red Sea and OPEC+’s limiting of supply. That optimism has been tempered by strong production from outside of the cartel, a shaky demand outlook in China and the paring back of expectations for when central banks will start monetary easing. “OPEC+ must ensure that the measures agreed are implemented as strictly as possible so that the oil price remains above $80 per barrel even if the geopolitical risk premium recedes,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “An oversupply in the second quarter should now be avoided. OPEC increased oil production last month as Libya restarted its biggest field, while other members faltered in the delivery of new cutbacks. The group’s output rose by 110,000 barrels a day to 26.68 million a day, according to a Bloomberg survey, as the North African nation ramped up the Sharara field, which was closed earlier in the year due to protests. the United Arab Emirates, continued to pump above a new quota set at the start of the year. However, an extension for a further three months was already expected.” China set its annual growth target at around 5%, raising expectations for officials to unleash more stimulus as they try to lift confidence in a slowing economy. The nation also set a more ambitious target for reducing the energy needed for economic expansion, or energy intensity, this year.
NN: ANNOUNCING PRODUCTION CUTS IS EASY. implementing THEM IS IMPOSSIBLE
WTI Loses 1.6% Its All About Demand
Oil prices shed over 1% on Monday despite rising tensions in the Red Sea and on the front lines of the Israel-Hamas conflict, with OPEC+ extending voluntary production cuts and demand sentiment taking a beating from an unusually mild winter. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend its 2.2-million-barrel/day voluntary production cuts for another quarter, with this outcome already having been priced in ahead of time. Russia also said it would deepen cuts by over 470,000 bpd in the second quarter of this year, while also easing curbs on exports. Russia already has a 500,000-bpd cut quote for production and exports. While this was a surprise move, it failed to move the oil price needle on Monday. “With OPEC loadings appearing steady and aggregate OPEC supply potentially showing little effect from incremental voluntary cuts implemented in Q1, we do not view the extensions from the broader group as particularly impactful,” Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor told Reuters on Monday. Some analysts saw this morning’s brief increase in oil prices as a response to the Israel-Hamas conflict and the current stalemated ceasefire negotiations. “The OPEC+ rollover was baked in, it’s the Gaza crisis that prices are responding to,” Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, told Bloomberg. “As long as the cease-fire negotiations remain in a stalemate, crude is likely to either hover around current levels or come under further upward pressure.” Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told Reuters that OPEC+ cuts would result in 34.6 million bpd in output for Q2, down 1.4 million bpd from earlier forecasts. NN: Remember this. Its all about consumption. As it should be OPEC is worried. Mild winter, increased output especially from America and plunging demand. OPEC is not cutting production because it wants to….. It has to.. Problem it still needs to cut another million BPD.