United States President Joe Biden said on Friday that he is planning a trip to Michigan on September 26 to show support for the United Auto Workers union and their strike “as they fight for a fair share of the value they helped create.” “It’s time for a win-win agreement that keeps American auto manufacturing thriving with well-paid UAW jobs,” Biden said. Earlier in the day, UAW President Shawn Fain invited the president to join the striking workers. Fain also announced the union would expand the strike to more locations, criticizing Stellantis NV and General Motors Company but noting that Ford Motor Company seems “serious about reaching a deal.” NN: I believe this UAW strike action will soon be resolved. When FORD caves the other will follow. Not a stock market event. The pressure is on as Biden pokes his nose where it does not belong.
Stocks slide as higher-for-longer sinks in; yen drops on BOJ
SINGAPORE, Sept 22 (Reuters) – Stocks eyed their worst week in a month on Friday and Treasuries hit decade lows as investors hunkered down for U.S. interest rates to stay high for some time, while the yen was pinned near an 11-month trough after the Bank of Japan left short-term rates below zero.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 4.508% in Tokyo. Thirty-year yields hit their highest in a dozen years. NN: getting closr all the time. Considering coming energy driven inflation. Ans wage push inflation is the strikes embolden worker to demand more money. I am inclined to wait to 5.5% to start our ZERO operations. We filtered out the Fed is going to taper horseshit. And we are being rewarded for being smarter then those trillion dollar investment banks and Haverd MBA AI traders and of course the candle stick simpleton assholes.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ), as expected, maintained super-low interest rates and left its outlook and yield control policy unchanged to signal it was in no hurry to end massive stimulus. The yen fell about 0.4% to 148.12 per dollar after the announcement but stopped short of Thursday’s 11-month low, with traders extra wary of intervention after the BOJ noted it was watching the impact of FX moves on Japan’s economy. The Fed held rates this week, but traders heeded its pushback on bets for swift cuts in 2024 and were sellers along the U.S. yield curve. Fed members lifted their median projection for the funds rate in 2024 by 50 basis points to 5.1% and traders shaved about 15 bps from implied futures pricing, which has rates at 4.7% at the end of next year.
UAW to expand strikes in 38 GM, Stellantis facilities
The United Auto Workers (UAW) President Shawn Fain called on Friday for the labor unions of 38 parts distribution facilities of General Motors and Stellantis to join the strikes starting today at 12:00 pm ET, arguing that both companies have rejected the proposals to fulfill the demands of improving salaries and working conditions. “Both companies are still offering a deficient cost of living allowance that is projected to provide zero increases over the next four years … have rejected all of our job security proposals … have rejected our profit-sharing proposals and both companies have rejected our proposals to convert temps,” Fain stressed in a video message. Ford Motor Company seems “serious about reaching a deal,” he noted. UAW President also remarked that the strikes will remain on those GM and Stellantis plants that have already stopped activities until the companies come up with a “serious offer” and finish the “corporate greed.” NN: This shit is getting serious. Wage Push has become Wage Explosion inflation.
Ackman expects long-term rates to continue rising
Sept 21 (Reuters) – Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he believed 30-year interest rates would rise further, while his Pershing Square Capital Management hedge fund remains short on bonds, as he sees inflation remaining stubbornly high. His comments came after the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but stiffened a hawkish monetary policy stance that its officials increasingly believe can succeed in lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job losses. “The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target,” Ackman said in a post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. With autoworkers on strike, Ackman pointed to inflationary pressure from potential increases in workers’ wages.
“The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise,” he said in the post on Thursday.
He also highlighted the impact of rising energy prices. The Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate may still be lifted one more time this year to a peak 5.50%-5.75% range, according to updated quarterly projections released by the U.S. central bank, and rates kept significantly tighter through 2024 than previously expected. “The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys,” he said, adding he was surprised at how low long-term rates are.
The yield on U.S. 30-year treasuries rose on Thursday to 4.55%, their highest since January 2011. NN: As you know we do not simply roll the dice in the highly speculative swap market casino. We trade your grand daddies safe secure sure to be their US Treasuries. And they will do great especially in our beloved ZEROES. In short patience is the order of the day… RECO coming.
Dow plunges 200 pts amid Fed’s decision-related fears
The Dow Jones Industrial Average went down by more than 200 points during Thursday’s premarket after the United States Federal Reserve decided to keep the key interest rate the same. The move sparked concerns with shareholders that the rates may remain elevated for longer than anticipated.
The Dow Jones declined 0.59% or 201 points at 7:31 am ET. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 lost 1.02%, and the S&P 500 decreased 0.80%.
Oil’s Rally Sparking Off Inflation, Still Fed Holds Off On Rate Hike
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday decided to hold interest rates steady for September, indicating next year may see fewer rate cuts that analysts had earlier anticipated. Still, amid inflation that remains elevated despite a fairly strong economy, the Fed has signaled there may be another rate hike later this year. This is only the second time since March 2022 that the Fed meetings have concluded without another rate hike. But oil could be what tips the Fed over the edge.
“Economic data reports continue to show a slowing economy. … If there is one thing that could potentially persuade the Fed to raise rates later this year, it’s oil,” CNN quoted JJ Kinahan, chief executive at IG Group North America, as saying on Wednesday. Oanda senior market analyst Craig Erlam likewise noted that “At a time when central banks are starting to see the light at the end of the inflation tunnel, $100+ oil will be incredibly unwelcome and unhelpful. I’m not sure there’s much economic sense in tipping the global economy into recession if OPEC+ persevered with these cuts, which makes me question how high the price will go and how sustainable it will be,” as reported by Yahoo Finance. Oil hit $95 per barrel earlier this week, and predictions of at least $100 oil are gaining momentum among the bull camps. Last week’s 3.7% jump in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was largely accounted for by a spike in gasoline prices, with CPI data overall showing a decrease in inflation. In the UK, as well, analysts are concerned that soaring oil prices could reverse consumer price inflation that has been declining since February this year, with the Bank of English set to decide on interest rates on Thursday. NN: Thats the problem with Doctoral Loraites. THEY END UP GETTING THEIR SWOLLEN HEAD STUCK UP THEIR ASSES AND THEIR OXYGEN STARVED BRAINS STOP WORKING. The FED has over 300 of them on the payroll. They always get it wrong. lest you forget the transitory inflation call. That was when the biggest inflation surge in 40 years hit the market. Their latest boondoggle is the soft landing hooplah. This is right before the biggest stock market crash in history is on the horizon. Inflation is about to soar.. And what do they do…. Nothiong!! instead of raising rates they sit on their hands…. Thats ok more money for me and you.
Powell: Fed prepared to hike rates further if necessary……. Powell says soft landing not baseline expectation
https://youtu.be/VWZKqpz9vRc
United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stressed on Wednesday at a press conference that the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates further should that be necessary in order for inflation to fall back to the 2% target. Powell noted that although a lot has been done, work is not over yet.
He reaffirmed that reducing inflation will most likely require a period of below-trend growth, as well as further labor conditions softening.
Powell remarked that the current monetary policy stance is restrictive. He also shared that the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been above expectations, while consumer spending has been “particularly robust” and the activity in housing has “picked up.” He reiterated that the central bank will remain data dependent.
Powell says soft landing not baseline expectation
United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscored on Wednesday that policymakers do not view soft landing as being the “baseline expectation.” However, the Federal Reserve chair was quick to clarify that soft landing is a “possible” scenario, though he explained that the path for it has “narrowed” and “widened” at times.
“Ultimately this may be decided by factors outside of our control at the end of the day,”
he stressed. Powell also emphasized the importance of restoring price stability as a necessary step to achieve the labor market that the policymakers are aiming for. Powell highlighted that stronger economic data could call for the central bank to act swiftly by adjusting its interest rates. NN: I think i have been pretty clear here. We are headed for double digit Fed Funds and a stock market crash…. a 100 year event. Another Great Depression anyone?
Oil Prices Fall They Got a Nose Bleed
- Oil prices fell back on Wednesday morning after hitting a 10-month high earlier in the week, with WTI now trading around the $90 mark and Brent trading close to $92.
- The drop in oil prices was driven by profit taking, as traders await a Fed decision that could play a pivotal role in defining the health of the U.S. economy.
- The chance of the Fed hiking interest rates again hasn’t stopped multiple analysts from calling for triple-digit oil as bullish sentiment remains strong.
Crude oil prices dipped earlier today after a relentless rally that brought benchmarks to a 10-month high earlier this week. The dip was the result of profit-taking and a pause ahead of a Fed meeting that would discuss interest rates yet again. “The oil rally is taking a little break as every trader awaits a pivotal Fed decision that might tilt the scales of whether the U.S. economy has a soft or hard landing,” OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Reuters. ING, meanwhile, joined the chorus of analysts forecasting Brent’s return to $100 per barrel, “as the market continues to become increasingly concerned over the tightness in the oil balance for the remainder of the year,” NB: So at $95 oil they predict 100. Where were they when at $70 oil we predicted $100 when it could do you the most good…. what whores!) the bank’s head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson and commodities strategist Ewa Manthey wrote in a note today. Patterson and Manthey also noted this supply tightness was reflected in the forward curve on the futures market: “The curve is moving deeper into backwardation with the prompt Brent spread trading in a backwardation of close to US$1.20/bbl, up from just US$0.60/bbl at the start of last week,” they wrote. In the U.S., oil prices have recently benefited from one extra bullish factor: the decline in crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, which has brought total crude volumes there close to a critical minimum. The trading arm of TotalEnergies was reportedly buying up all the U.S. crude it could as a result of this tightness, sending the premium for physical U.S. crude surging. Higher oil prices might interfere with Fed plans to stop its interest rate hikes. The Wall Street Journal noted in a report that higher oil prices would lead to higher energy bills – which would fuel inflation, which in turn could motivate the Fed to hike rates further. NN: And we have the bold prediction by the journal that higher energy prices will add to inflation…DAH!
UK inflation D-O-W-N to 6.7% in August…… WTF
The United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.7% in August compared to the same month a year ago, the Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday. The figure marks a slight decrease from July, when annual inflation in the UK stood at 6.8%, and is lower than analysts had anticipated. The largest downward contribution to the annual inflation rate came from food and accommodation services. On the other hand, rising prices for motor fuel made an upward contribution, partially offsetting the decline. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.3% in August, while the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) climbed 6.3% year on year and was up 0.4% month on month. NN: Where did this inflation DOWN BULLSHIT COME FROM….Another spin job. Inflation is out of control.
Time to FLUSH the toilet…. Builds In Crude, Fuel Inventories
The Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 4 million barrels for the week to September 8. This compared with a draw of 6.3 million barrels for the previous week, which in turn followed another massive inventory decline of 10.6 million barrels for the week before that. Those large draws were made during peak demand season and there is a chance that now inventory draws may moderate or possibly even reverse as demand declines seasonally. In fuels, meanwhile, the EIA estimated a gasoline build and a middle distillate increase in stocks. In gasoline, the EIA reported an inventory increase of 5.6 million barrels for the week to September 8, with production averaging 9.2 million barrels daily. This compared with a draw of 2.7 million barrels for the previous week and a daily production rate of 9.8 million barrels. In middle distillates, the EIA estimated an inventory build of 3.9 million barrels for the week to September 8, with production at 5 million bpd. This compared with a modest inventory build of some 700,000 barrels for the previous week, with production averaging 5 million barrels daily as well, unchanged from the week before. Oil prices meanwhile have hit the highest in 10 months as traders focus on supply for a change, with concern about a potential slowdown in demand in some large consumers taking the back seat. In addition to the latest production control announcements from Russia and Saudi Arabia, a shutdown of oil terminals in Libya amid a storm has contributed to a perception of tighter supply. Prices continued higher earlier today, too, despite the American Petroleum Institute’s inventory report, which showed an unexpected build in crude oil, to the tune of 1.17 million barrels, for the week to September 8. “Bullish demand outlook by the OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) prediction of a decline in global oil inventories reinforced market views of tightening supply going forward,” Rakuten Securities analyst Satoru Yoshida told Reuters. OPEC, meanwhile, forecast a shortage of 3.3 million barrels daily for the final quarter of the year, prompting ING’s head of commodity strategy to comment that “These numbers will cause some to question OPEC’s claims that their main objective is to keep the market balanced as their own numbers clearly do not show this.” NN: this recent up-move is way overdone. We are not in refinery maintenance season. And out of driving season and not yet in winter heating oil time. Normally inventories build. And prices fall. Their are a LOT of weak longs in this market…… be a great time to flush the toilet.