A strong U.S. dollar, profit-taking, inflationary concerns that could dent demand and forecasts that suggest increasing supply all are on slamming il prices today. Profit-taking was expected after oil hit 10-month highs in Q3, gaining almost 30%.
“The global outlook is quickly taking a turn for the worse and that is both driving the king dollar trade again and weighing on the crude demand outlook,” Reuters cited Edward Moya, senior market analyst at data and analytics firm OANDA, as saying. Also weighting on oil prices today was the World Bank forecast for slower Chinese growth, which could crimp demand for oil. The World Bank on Monday forecast China’s growth at 5.1% for 2023, up from 3% in 2022 but still representing a slowing growth pace since April. NN: The biggest factor is everybody went longs. And the candle sticks dumb shits got them stuck up their asses.
Nigeria upped its production by 110,000 bpd, while Iran’s output reached its highest since 2018, exempt from OPEC+ cuts because of U.S. sanctions.
Saudi Arabia maintained its commitment to pumping approximately 9 million bpd in September, balancing some of the production increases.
Analysts speculate Saudi Arabia might ease its extended 1 million bpd cut earlier than anticipated to avoid overly high prices that could hamper demand.
OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September from August – the second monthly increase in a row – as higher output in Iran and Nigeria offset the Saudi cuts, the monthly Reuters survey showed on Monday. All OPEC members produced 27.73 million bpd in September, as Nigeria and Iran boosted production the most, according to the survey based on vessel-tracking data, consultants, and sources at OPEC and oil firms. Nigeria, which has been lagging behind its quota in the OPEC+ deal, increased its oil production by 110,000 bpd in the absence of major disruptions to exports, the survey found. Iran, exempted from the OPEC+ cuts due to the U.S. sanctions, saw the second-largest increase in oil output within OPEC and is estimated to have pumped 3.15 million bpd in September—the highest since 2018. In the middle of August, a senior Iranian government official was quoted as saying that crude oil exports from Iran had gone up to 1.4 million bpd. Separately, the head of the National Iranian Oil Company has said there were plans to boost oil production to 3.5 million bpd by the end of September. The rises in Nigerian and Iranian production offset a large part of the cuts from Saudi Arabia, which is estimated to have kept its oil output in line with the pledge to pump around 9 million bpd in September, the Reuters survey found. September was the second consecutive month in which OPEC’s crude oil production increased, after a 113,000 bpd rise to 27.45 million bpd in August. Official OPEC figures for the September production are due out on October 12 in the Monthly Oil Market Report. This week, on October 4, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the OPEC+ group is meeting to take stock of the oil market developments in recent weeks. Saudi Arabia has extended its extra 1 million bpd cut until the end of the year, but some analysts have said that the Kingdom could begin easing the cut sooner than oil market participants believe as the world’s top crude oil exporter wouldn’t risk demand destruction through too high prices. NN: Everybody is getting while the getting is good… You should to
Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on Monday that the pipeline that transports oil from Kurdistan in Iraq through his country will resume operations this week. Speaking at the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC), Bayraktar said that, once restarted, the pipeline will supply the world with half a million barrels of oil per day. Turkey previously halted operations on its part after an arbitration case ruled that the Eurasian country violated the agreement with its neighbor by allowing Kurdistan’s government to send oil from the region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan without Iraq’s consent. NN: prices at these levels are to high to pass over. The increased oil represents half the Saudi production cut.
(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a military pact requiring the United States to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel and will not hold up a deal even if Israel does not offer major concessions to Palestinians in their bid for statehood, three regional sources familiar with the talks said. A pact might fall short of the cast-iron, NATO-style defence guarantees the kingdom initially sought when the issue was first discussed between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Joe Biden during the U.S. president’s visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022. Instead, a U.S. source said it could look like treaties Washington has with Asian states or, if that would not win U.S. Congress approval, it could be similar to a U.S. agreement with Bahrain, where the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet is based. Such an agreement would not need congressional backing. Washington could also sweeten any deal by designating Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already given to Israel, the U.S. source said. But all the sources said Saudi Arabia would not settle for less than binding assurances of U.S. protection if it faced attack, such as the Sept. 14, 2019 missile strikes on its oil sites that rattled world markets. Riyadh and Washington blamed Iran, the kingdom’s regional rival, although Tehran denied having a role. Agreements giving the world’s biggest oil exporter U.S. protection in return for normalisation with Israel would reshape the Middle East by bringing together two longtime foes and binding Riyadh to Washington. For Biden, it would be a diplomatic victory to vaunt before the 2024 U.S. election.
“The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path,” said one of the regional sources.
“Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians.” A source said Saudi Arabia was ready to sign Section 123 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act, establishing a framework for U.S. peaceful nuclear cooperation, a move Riyadh previously refused to take. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed the possibility of a “historic” peace with Saudi Arabia, the heartland of Islam. But to secure the prize, Netanyahu has to win the approval of parties in his a far-right coalition which reject any concessions to the Palestinians. MbS said in a Fox News interview this month that the kingdom was moving steadily closer to normalising ties with Israel. He spoke about the need for Israel to “ease the life of the Palestinians” but made no mention of Palestinian statehood.
Israel Considers Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear Program Under Potential Normalization Deal
Israeli officials are quietly working with the Biden administration on a polarizing proposal to set up a U.S.-run, uranium-enrichment operation in Saudi Arabia as part of a complex three-way deal to establish official diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern countries, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directed top Israeli nuclear and security specialists to cooperate with U.S. negotiators as they try to reach a compromise that could allow Saudi Arabia to become the second country in the Middle East, after Iran, to openly enrich uranium, the officials said. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been negotiating the contours of a deal for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel in exchange for helping the kingdom develop a civilian nuclear program with uranium enrichment on Saudi soil, among other concessions. Other aspects of the evolving deal are expected to include concessions for the Palestinians and U.S. security guarantees. Saudi Arabia’s push to enrich uranium has emerged as one of the thorniest issues facing U.S. and Israeli leaders as they try to forge an agreement that could reshape the Middle East.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman described negotiations over normalization with Israel as serious and getting closer to a deal every day, while stipulating that his country would seek a nuclear weapon if Iran obtained one NN Well guess what Iran has got the nukes. And its a case of. BlackMask Pod Cast
the above video is a must see. The quid quidproquo here is a 3 way deal.
Crude oil prices for front-month settlements pulled back on Thursday, with the main oil benchmark for North America, West Texas Intermediate, coming down from its 12-month high as economic uncertainty seemingly outweighed supply-related pressure on the commodity prices. The somewhat persistent economic growth in the United States raised concerns about the prospects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy moving forward, with officials estimating that interest rates could stay elevated for longer than expected in order to reach the targeted inflation rate. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November contracts declined 1.08% to trade at $92.68 per barrel at 10:30 am ET. Brent for the same month’s deliveries was down 0.75% to sell at $95.83 a barrel.
Kremlin: Russia, OPEC+ not discussing raising oil exports
Russia, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their partners are not discussing any changes to the quantity of Russian oil exports, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed on Thursday. The official also told reporters that Moscow is not considering imposing stricter measures in the domestic fuel market. Work on the issue between the Kremlin and Russian oil companies will continue, he added.
Oil prices have risen by 30% since June, largely due to production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, members of OPEC+.
Higher oil prices historically decrease gasoline demand; last year, a jump to $110 a barrel resulted in a 4.1% dip in U.S. gasoline demand.
Despite short-term projections that the price will stabilize below $100, the potential impacts, especially in developing countries, may have long-term economic repercussions.
Crude oil prices are on the rise, driven by stark cutbacks imposed by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the main forces behind OPEC+. The cuts, implemented by the oil cartel in order to bolster oil prices, have been extremely successful, with barrel prices rising by a whopping 30% since June. Now, prices are hovering ever closer to the USD $100 per barrel mark, and could even surpass that hallowed and feared metric on the back of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement that they intend to extend the current voluntary production cuts. Historically, high oil prices have been nothing but good news for the oil industry, even as it causes strife in other sectors. But this time around, it might be too much of a good thing even for Big Oil. While high oil prices can spell pure profit for the oil sectors, it’s a fine line between stimulus and disincentive, as high prices at the pump can also cause significant dips in demand as the market reels from sticker shock. For example, in June and July of last year, when oil prices hit a blistering USD $110 a barrel average, gasoline demand in the United States plummeted by 4.1% compared to the same period in the previous year when oil was selling at USD $70 per barrel. And as that $110 mark fell, so too did the size of the year-over-year demand gap, underscoring the correlation between high oil prices and consumer reticence. “The run-up in oil prices is at the very tip top of my worries at this point,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, was quoted by Bloomberg. “Anything over $100 for any length of time, and we’re going to be very sick.” And the oil industry itself is likely not immune to this sickness. While the state of savings and household economics in the United States is precarious enough, the full impact of consumer drawbacks will be actually felt in developing countries – as usual. Bucking historical trends, the value of the U.S. dollar has only continued to rise along with oil prices, putting a painful squeeze on economies with weaker currencies and lower cash flows that are nonetheless forced to buy dollar-denominated oil. This will have a serious impact on global economics and energy markets, as these developing countries include the monster markets of India and China. While the USD $100 mark is not significantly financially distinct from, say, a USD $99 per barrel mark, three digits have an outsized psychological influence on consumers and on the energy market as a whole. Crossing that line will therefore cause disproportionate shockwaves to a strapped and fragile global market that the energy industry should be prepared for in the coming months. Luckily, most experts are predicting that the foray into triple digits will be short lived, but the damage done will likely have a longer shelf life.
NN: I may be wrong..BUT this looks like a suckers rally to me. The Saudis once they make a arms deal and get permission to build a nuclear reactor will put the missing barrels right back into the market
The prices of oil futures recorded gains, with West Texas Intermediate surpassing the value of $95 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.The commodity thus continued to observe price rises in the aftermath of a larger-than-expected decline in the US inventories. WTI for November’s deliveries jumped by 1.31% at 9:10 pm ET to sell for $94.90 per barrel, having hit $95 per barrel moments earlier. A minute later, Brent for the same month’s settlements grew by 1.17% to go for $97.64 per barrel.
EIA: US crude inventories down by 2.2 million barrels
Commercial crude oil inventories in the United States, not considering those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), went down by 2.2 million barrels to 416.3 million barrels in the week ending September 22, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its report published on Wednesday. Crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.1 million barrels per day during the same week, 239,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 89.5% of their operable capacity.
NB: the stupid asses in the trillion dollar funds cannot read page 2,. Refineries are shit down. Normal utilization rates are in the mid nineties. Its refinery change over and maintenance season, so they are shut down. So inventories rise. Since a suit refinery does not need any crude oil. In the coming 2 months they will open up and that sucking sound will be inventories getting turned into diesel fuel and heating oi.
Meanwhile, gasoline production decreased and averaged 9.1 million bpd. Crude oil imports went up by 711,000 bpd week-on-week to average 7.2 million bpd. Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 1.5 million barrels last week.
NN: We are going to have a lot of fun collecting a stupid tax.
Kemp: over the past four weeks, traders had bought a total of 183 million barrels of crude and fuel futures.
The ratio of bullish to bearish bets on oil and fuels had risen to almost 8:1.
Kemp: oil markets may be ripe for a correction in prices.
Oil traders have been gobbling up futures in the six most traded crude and fuel contracts on that market for four weeks now. It’s easy to see why: it was enough for Saudi Arabia and Russia to announce an extension of their 1.3-million-bpd combined supply cut, and traders stopped obsessing over demand in China. By now, however, traders have placed so many bullish bets that, according to Reuters’ market analyst John Kemp, oil prices are due for a correction. In his latest column on oil buying among institutional traders, Kemp pointed out that
over the past four weeks, traders had bought a total of 183 million barrels of crude and fuel futures. That has brought the total up to 525 million barrels. More importantly, the ratio of bullish to bearish bets on oil and fuels had risen to almost 8:1.
According to Kemp, this is a sign that oil prices may start reversing their gains before too long. Others, however, anticipate even higher prices, with JP Morgan saying this week that Brent could reach $150 per barrel. Other commodity analysts see Brent hitting $100 before this year’s end. “The oil market has held relatively steady in recent days with tightness in the physical market coupled with Russia’s recent export ban on diesel and gasoline offset by a fairly hawkish FOMC meeting last week. As a result, Brent continues to hold above US$93/bbl,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note earlier today. This may not last very long, however, according to some analysts. A Reuters report from this week noted that high interest rates could soon begin to undermine demand for oil while supply from non-OPEC nations grows. Also, supply from Russia is projected to expand, too, at some point in the near future. “If energy prices increase and stay high, that’ll have an effect on spending, and it may have an effect on consumer expectations for inflation, things like that. That’s just things that we have to monitor,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell said last week. Indeed, energy prices are certainly things to be monitored—and monitored closely. The Fed has been balancing between recession and growth for months now, and it has proved it was willing and able to make risky moves such as an extended series of rate hikes to fix the U.S. economy. Regarding non-OPEC supply growth, it usually refers to U.S. supply growth, which is not exactly a certainty these days. Indeed, Occidental Petroleum’s chief executive Vicki Hollub said this week that the company had no intention of changing its production plans despite oil’s surge above $90 per barrel. “We don’t increase oil significantly in a market where we don’t see the balance,” Hollub told Bloomberg in an interview. “Only in a market where we see balance would we increase our production — and even then, it would be at a moderate pace.” This suggests that demand destruction is indeed on the way as supply remains constrained and inflation bites into the Western world’s spending habits. It is virtually a certainty if conditions remain unchanged. Luckily for the regular driver, they are unlikely to remain unchanged for very long. It is a fine balancing act between pushing prices higher and pushing them too high—and OPEC’s leader, Saudi Arabia, and its partner in the cuts, Russia, both know it. NN: Its now a bubble in oil. And the stupid money candlestick losers are in the room with Elvis. So time to harvest stupid. And remember this the trade rooms of trillion dollar investment funds and Banks have filled their ranks with stupid… Thank GOD!
Credit rating agency Moody’s said Monday that a US government shutdown would be “credit negative.” Moody’s stated such a situation would highlight the weakness of institutional and governance strength compared to other top-rated governments. “In particular, it would demonstrate the significant constraints that intensifying political polarization put on fiscal policymaking at a time of declining fiscal strength, driven by widening fiscal deficits and deteriorating debt affordability,” the agency said .NN: how nice
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that an agreement leading to the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia would be a “quantum leap” that would “change the Middle East forever.” On Friday, he told the United Nations General Assembly that the two countries are “on the cusp” of reaching a deal. Netanyahu told CNN that establishing ties with Saudi Arabia would enable the creation of a “corridor of energy pipelines, rail lines, fiber optic cables, between Asia through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.” However, he did not provide details on the concessions he is prepared to make to Palestinians as part of the potential deal.
MbS: ‘Getting closer’ to normalizing ties with Israel
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) revealed in an interview with Fox News correspondent Bret Baier on Wednesday that Riyadh is “closer” by the day to normalizing ties with Israel. However, the crown prince underlined in a special interview, which will air later this evening, that the Palestinian issue plays a key role in stabilizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In addition, the crown prince cautioned that:
Saudi Arabia would also pursue the development of a nuclear weapon if Iran were to do so. Crown prince confirms Saudi Arabia will seek nuclear arsenal if Iran develops one
White House hopes to secure nuclear cooperation deal with Riyadh… Previously, Washington stated that potential normalization of relations between the two countries would be a “transformative event” that could “stabilize” the region. BlackMask Pod Cast:
