Qualcomm Inc. revealed on Thursday that its revenue in the first quarter of the fiscal 2023 amounted to $9.46 billion, falling 12% year on year. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) slumped by 34% year-on-year to $2.98 as net income also plunged by 34% to $2.24 billion. “The long-term trends driving demand for our differentiated technologies and solutions that enable digital transformation are intact. We are confident in our ability to navigate the near term and remain focused on executing our diversification strategy,” CEO Cristiano Amon said.

Apple misses estimates with EPS at $1.88 in Q1

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had a clear message on Wednesday: as “gratifying” as it is that inflation has begun to slow, the central bank is nowhere near to reversing course or declaring victory. “It’s going to take some time” for disinflation to spread through the economy, Powell said in a news conference following the Fed’s latest quarter-point interest rate increase. He said he expects a couple more rate hikes still to go, and,

“given our outlook, I just I don’t see us cutting rates this year.”

Investors ignored him, keeping bets on just one more rate hike ahead and piling further into bets that rates will be lower by year’s end than they are now. It’s not obvious which view will prove right: neither the Fed nor markets have a great predictive record since the central bank’s current round of rate hikes began last March. Markets have repeatedly had to scrap bets for a quick pivot, pushing those expectations out farther as the central bank charged ahead with the most aggressive policy tightening in 40 years. For their part, Fed policymakers each quarter through last year kept ratcheting up their own estimates for how high they’d push interest rates as inflation proved stronger and stickier than anticipated. Not once did they signal rates would get cut this year.  “The actual outcome is data dependent, and we won’t have the data to confirm or deny…until we are deeper into the first half of the year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. And as long as there’s that uncertainty, it is in Powell’s interest to try to keep financial markets from betting too hard on rate cuts that would loosen financial conditions, possibly undermining the Fed’s hard-won progress against inflation. Even simply acknowledging the possibility of a rate cut later in the year could undo some of the Fed’s work, forcing more Fed tightening and making it even harder to avoid a recession. Thus Powell’s repeated assertions about not cutting rates, and indeed needing to take them at least above 5% as policymakers forecast in December. “It is our judgment that we’re not yet in a sufficiently restrictive policy stance, which is why we say that we expect ongoing hikes will be appropriate,” Powell said. NN: Powell will soon make his point.

https://youtu.be/yiKs5D1wX3k

Environmental activists are bracing for one last push to try and cancel the Willow oil project in Alaska, which they have slammed as a “carbon bomb”. The project, led by ConocoPhillips, was awarded to the company by the Trump Administration’s Bureau of Land Management in 2020. The project could deliver 160,000 bpd of crude, the BLM said at the time, with reserves estimated at between 400 and 750 million barrels. The lifetime of the project was estimated at up to 30 years in 2019. Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that President Biden could approve the $8-billion project with a reduced number of wells, which sparked concern among activists and they are now preparing for battle. According to a new Bloomberg report, this time they are using a new tactic that involves a focus on efforts to push for approval for the project at a reduced scale that would render it uneconomical rather than trying to stop its approval altogether. The latest official input from the federal government came this week in the form of a report published by the Bureau of Land Management, which features a suggestion that four drill sites would be better than five, and another one should be deferred pending additional environmental impact analysis. According to the BLM, fewer drilling sites would reduce the risk for local ecosystems, reduce freshwater consumption by the project, and reduce the total length of pipelines related to the project. The Willow project has been seen as a fine balancing act for the Biden administration as it seeks the middle ground between its emission reduction ambitions and the immediate need for hydrocarbons to secure the country’s energy supply.  The final decision on Willow is scheduled to be made in a month and the BLM has indicated an approval is not certain at all. NN: We are talking at least a million barrels a day. And get this the Alaskan pipeline has the spare capacity. The infrastructure to get this badly needed oil to the lower 48 is already in place. Its a no brainier.

HOUSTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) – Oil prices dipped 2% on Monday, extending losses as looming increases to interest rates by major central banks weighed on demand and Russian exports remained strong. Investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, followed the day after by half-point increases by the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Any deviation from that script would be a shock. “We’re seeing a ‘risk back off’ sentiment from the past two weeks’ rally on ideas that higher interest rates may slow demand more quickly,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. The market also came under pressure from indications of strong Russian supply despite a European Union ban and G7 price cap imposed over its invasion of Ukraine. Both oil benchmarks last week registered their first weekly loss in three. Besides the central bank meetings, a gathering on Wednesday of key ministers from the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia will also be in focus. The OPEC+ panel meeting is unlikely to tweak output policy, three OPEC+ delegates told Reuters on Monday. “The boat is not really in stormy seas right now. So why rock something that’s not moving about as it is,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. OPEC+ could “surprise markets with a small cut”, oil broker PVM said, adding it was unlikely to tweak policy. Earlier on Monday, oil prices rose on tensions in the Middle East after a drone attack in Iran and hopes for higher Chinese demand. While it is not clear yet what’s happening in Iran, any escalation there has the potential to disrupt crude flow, said Stefano Grasso, a senior portfolio manager at 8VantEdge in Singapore. Hopes for a rise in Chinese demand have boosted oil in 2023. The world’s biggest crude importer pledged over the weekend to promote a consumption recovery that would support demand. “Markets have priced-in rising demand mostly from China so traders are taking a wait and see attitude for clear signs of a demand pull,” Kissler added. Traders also remained cautious on a hit to oil production and transportation in Texas after the state oil regulator advised pipeline operators to secure equipment and facilities after forecasts for severe weather over the next several days. U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have dipped by about 1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 27, a preliminary Reuters poll showed, while gasoline inventories were expected to have gone up. NN: All I am seeing is the normal chop shop swings in oil. I still see a rise that takes crude to over $120 a barrel. And Russian crude oil sanctions will soon bite.

Investors have got the jitters as a big week unfolds — several central bank meetings including the Fed, earnings from Apple and Amazon.com, and jobs data. Yikes. The Fed and the stock market are set for a showdown this week. What’s at stake. Any investor out there who isn’t nervous, perhaps should recheck his gut, says  Standard Chartered’s global head of research, Eric Robertsen. “We do not expect an extreme economic hard landing, but we think the proverbial Goldilocks scenario is too optimistic,” Robertsen told clients in a Sunday note, adding that they are “now turning cautious on risky assets.” Robertsen explains the two sides of an important market debate right now — the just-right Goldilocks crowd and the “recessionist” bears. The former is growing confident with their view that inflation and central bank tightening is nearing a peak and any recession will be “shallow and short-lived,” he explains. The reduction of that “central-bank driven left-side tail risk” matters more to markets than any slowdown, that side also says. “A central bank pause, declining inflation, and attractive yields and valuations will prompt investors to reduce their underweight exposure and increase their allocation to risky assets, the Goldilocks camp argues,” he said. He says the varied year-to-date performance across asset classes reveals 2022’s laggards are 2023’s outperformers so far. “This suggests that short-covering may be a significant contributor to performance so far, rather than overwhelming faith in the Goldilocks economy. “The outperforming sectors are distinctly pro-cyclical – which is surprising with recession themes all the rage,” he says, noting that “ominous message about the health of the labor market” from tech job cuts.

On the other side, the bears say investors are overstating a decline in volatility and understating economic risks, writes Robertsen, who is on board here, hence his caution on riskier assets. “Real-time indicators are showing a loss of economic momentum, while others – such as the U.S. labor market – have yet to reflect growing economic headwinds,” he said. “Underlying the bear case is the view that we have yet to feel the full cumulative impact of the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades.”He says “volatility measures have fallen too far and the improvement in
risky assets is due for a pause,” adding that the catalyst could be any number of things: aggressive rate cuts priced into the U.S. money-market curve that will be unwound, a too-tight move from the European Central Bank or even an actual tightening from Bank of Japan, for example.

Risk assets may also struggle with the Fed’s message this week if it fails to reassure the rate-hiking cycle is complete, says Robertse,n who expects the central bank will push back on “aggressive easing priced into the money-market curve.”

NN: We are going to have to wait for the fat lady to sing.

Former US President Donald Trump kicked off his 2024 White House bid with stops on Saturday in New Hampshire and South Carolina, events in early-voting states marking the first campaign appearances since announcing his latest run more than two months ago. “Together we will complete the unfinished business of making America great again,” Trump said at an evening event in Columbia to introduce his South Carolina leadership team. Trump and his allies hope the events in states with enormous power in selecting the nominee will offer a show of force behind the former president after a sluggish start to his campaign that left many questioning his commitment to running again. “They said, ‘He’s not doing rallies, he’s not campaigning. Maybe he’s lost that step,’” Trump said at the New Hampshire GOP’s annual meeting in Salem, his first event. But, he told the audience of party leaders, “I’m angrier now and more committed now than I ever was.” In South Carolina, he further dismissed the speculation by saying that ”we have huge rallies planned, bigger than ever before.” While Trump has spent the months since he announced largely ensconced in his Florida club and at his nearby golf course, his aides insist they have been busy behind the scenes.  His campaign opened a headquarters in Palm Beach, Florida, and has been hiring staff. And in recent weeks, backers have been reaching out to political operatives and elected officials to secure support for Trump at a critical point when other Republicans are preparing their own expected challenges. In New Hampshire, Trump promoted his campaign agenda, including immigration and crime, and said his policies would be the opposite of President Joe Biden’s. He cited the Democrats’ move to change the election calendar, costing New Hampshire its primary leadoff spot.  He accused Biden, a fifth-place finisher in New Hampshire in 2020, of “disgracefully trashing this beloved political tradition.” “I hope you’re going to remember that during the general election,” Trump told party members.

CNN, FOX. DISH, AT&T directtv,MSNBC and other NETWORKs, ALL CANCELLED LIVE BROADCAST AND GROSSLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE ANNOUNCEMENT

The three major cable news networks — CNN, Fox News and MSNBC — to different extents each limited their airtime of former President Donald Trump’s speech Tuesday evening, in which he announced a 2024 presidential campaign. MSNBC didn’t air the prime time speech at all, while Fox and CNN cut away from the more-than-hour-long address after Trump verbally announced his candidacy. Fox cut away about 15 minutes later than CNN, and switched back to Trump for an additional few minutes after showing NEGATIVE  commentary from guests. NN:  so MUCH FOR FAIR AND BALANCED REPORTING. The coming presidential elections will be the most censored manipulated media event ever. We have lost the free press. Social media the and mass internet networks are the new media. Owned and run by the mega corporations. And this press is no longer free. Their is no freedom of the press in corporate mega media. Trump is a player… love him, hate him he has more support then the current president. To censor his announcement of a 3rd presidential run is a out rage. I have access to most all media in the world. His very important presidential announcement was only carried on NewsMax. ATT, DISH network and FOX by way of example cancelled the live broadcast.

The S&P 500 is on the verge of achieving its first “golden cross” in 2½ years, but that doesn’t mean stocks are destined for more gains over the coming year. The golden-cross indicator is used by technical analysts as a sign that a particular upward trend in markets or currencies is gaining momentum. Barring a massive selloff in stocks, the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average should cross its 200-day moving average in a matter of days. If it happens, it would mark the first such event since July, 2020, according to FactSet data. Data show it often does precede further gains for stocks over the following six months, or a year, but not always. The S&P 500 has seen 52 golden crosses since 1930, according to Dow Jones Market Data, which used back-tested data to account for the index’s performance prior to its creation in 1957. In that time, stocks were trading higher one year later 71% of the time.But there have been some notable exceptions during periods of heightened volatility.The S&P 500 SPX, +0.25% declined during the 12 months that followed the golden cross that occurred on April 1, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

This happened again in 1999 as the dot-com bubble burst, and also following a golden cross that occurred in1986, preceding the “Black Monday” crash.